The Weekly Trend
The Weekly Trend
Episode 219: Stronger Than You'd Think
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In this week’s episode, David and Ian discuss the continued strength from equities, gold, and what a falling dollar means for an array of assets.
Welcome back to the weekly trend podcast. Today is friday, august 23rd 2024 SMP 500, currently sitting at 5601. I'm David Zarling. I'm here with our fall fire aficionado, Ian McMillan. We're getting upon that time of year, are we not?
ian-guest814_13_08-23-2024_105254We certainly are getting a little crispy out.
david_12_08-23-2024_095253Yeah, that's good. Do you feel like, are you there already, where you live, or you got a little bit yet? Like I view it as like, if you've got like 60 degrees. the evening, 50 degrees. That's good fire weather.
ian-guest814_13_08-23-2024_105254See, I'll push it though. Cause I'm impatient. I'm not saying it's good. I'm not saying it's perfect fire weather, but I'm like, I can, I could definitely do one at like 65,
david_12_08-23-2024_095253Oh
ian-guest814_13_08-23-2024_10525470. I could do 70. I could talk myself into 70 degrees.
david_12_08-23-2024_095253yeah.
ian-guest814_13_08-23-2024_105254If it's
david_12_08-23-2024_095253I'm like, yeah. I'm like you. I forced one earlier. Maybe like a month ago. It might have been like 75 degrees outside. And I remember sitting there going, ah, I forced this one.
ian-guest814_13_08-23-2024_105254Yeah, but it's a vibe man.
david_12_08-23-2024_095253It is a vibe. It's there's some out of fire or water, right? You sit by a Lake or by the ocean or you buy a river. It's very relaxing. Same thing with a fireman, a good, nice, good fire. And I think you have one of those, you got a solo stove, don't you? It makes a good fire, man. Like I, I thought those were kind of over. They're overhyped, but they're the real deal.
ian-guest814_13_08-23-2024_105254Yeah, I need to get I need to get they make a better model now
david_12_08-23-2024_095253They do. What makes it better? Do you know? Like, what is it,
ian-guest814_13_08-23-2024_105254Yeah, you can lift off you can clean out the ashes easier
david_12_08-23-2024_095253Oh, okay.
ian-guest814_13_08-23-2024_105254because I'm mine you can't lift up the Inside of it.
david_12_08-23-2024_095253Yes. Correct. Yeah. Mine, mine's like that too. You got to take the whole thing and dump it.
ian-guest814_13_08-23-2024_105254Yeah, you have to like dump it on its side.
david_12_08-23-2024_095253Yep. For sure. But yeah, man, we've got fire football. We're heading into fall baseball season, the final push for playoffs. It's a good time of year.
ian-guest814_13_08-23-2024_105254Yeah. Yeah, I mean, I mean the Braves of falling apart
david_12_08-23-2024_095253I
ian-guest814_13_08-23-2024_105254bad Riley's out for two months
david_12_08-23-2024_095253yeah, that hurts. a dude. a dude, but they should be in the mix towards the end. I mean, they got a good enough team. They'll be good.
ian-guest814_13_08-23-2024_105254Six games back from Philadelphia, oh my gosh.
david_12_08-23-2024_095253Yeah. Phillies
ian-guest814_13_08-23-2024_105254Makes me want to throw up. But we have college football in next week, well technically this weekend, but really next week is when it starts.
david_12_08-23-2024_095253yeah. I mean, that's pretty sweet. We're right there, man. Falls a great time of year. I know it is in Wisconsin, football, outdoor, the lawn gets real nice.
ian-guest814_13_08-23-2024_105254Yep.
david_12_08-23-2024_095253It likes that morning dew. So we got some seasonality coming with fire, football, grass. And I would even say we're not out of the seasonality woods for the market either. I mean, that we've seen in the second half of August does fit seasonality from a minor degree. And if you use that same seasonality, September tends to be weak. In October, it tends to carry a lot of volatility. So it's not like smooth sailing necessarily from here. And we saw, you know, we're kind of at our price level using the S& P 500 that we've seen before. You know, we've been at this price level back in July then they selling took over at that point. It'll be interesting to see if we can push through this level. If buyers have control, that's why it's great to use charts.
ian-guest814_13_08-23-2024_105254If they, I mean if we go to new highs and just keep going, that'll that'll be impressive.
david_12_08-23-2024_095253It will be.
ian-guest814_13_08-23-2024_105254We're really I mean, great. We're having talked about it last week. We're back up above 5, 400. We had followed through this week, but. I mean, we're really getting into some waning momentum. It's slowing down.
david_12_08-23-2024_095253Yeah, correct. Like
ian-guest814_13_08-23-2024_105254I mean, we're moving. We're moving. And, I mean, but you say that, but then, I mean, it's been a healthy rebound. This has not been led by Megacap Tech.
david_12_08-23-2024_095253would you say it has been led by rebound?
ian-guest814_13_08-23-2024_105254Well, I mean, yeah, I get, okay, so let me rephrase that. It has
david_12_08-23-2024_095253You're allowed to do that.
ian-guest814_13_08-23-2024_105254In some ways, I think it has been led by Megacap Tech. You know, if you look at like just like NASDAQ vs S& P or growth vs value, you can definitely make that argument. But then, I mean, Dow Jones is out to new highs. NYSE Composite out to new highs first. Weekly closing highs. Actually, I think Dow might have had weekly all time weekly closing highs last week. So then you look at that side now today, right? Today's pretty decent for breath. It's not horrible, but we don't ever do this for multiple days in a row.
david_12_08-23-2024_095253Yeah.
ian-guest814_13_08-23-2024_105254The Russell tooth out, like Russell's having a great day. Am I expecting him to show up for work on Monday? I have no idea. He showed up today. I don't know if he's going to show up on Monday.
david_12_08-23-2024_095253Yeah. got a lot to prove. I mean in, in some ways, small caps using IWM has some similar characteristics about it And there's a lot of, there's a fair amount of things that look like that. You know, EQAL, Equal Weight Russell 1000 still isn't above its 2021 highs. We are seeing Equal Weight S& P and I think this is maybe what you're saying about it hasn't been big mega cap leading us out. So if you take, SPY, we're not at new all time highs. We could potentially close at a new weekly closing high in that, but you do have RSP weight S& P. So the equal weight is beating the cap weighted to new highs currently. Now this could change, but this is a nearer term in development. I think that's kind of what you're alluding to is yes, big cap has participated, but there does seem to be this movement happening on an equal weighted basis, or even like mid caps. Time will tell. We did record some breath thrusts July and now. We did get a Whaley breath thrust, a Zwig breath thrust, and a Laue breath thrust. And then as always with breath rusts the forward looking returns from that can be really nice. It's really interesting to see them at this point in the game after the move we've seen since late October last year to now. It's interesting to see these show up again. And the immediacy after they happen, typically you do see a pullback after them. So I, it would not surprise me to see us down next week. After recording breath for us this week, especially going into the highs like this, it would make sense to digest some of this. But
ian-guest814_13_08-23-2024_105254you said we had a way, we had a Whaley breath thrust.
david_12_08-23-2024_095253yeah, back in July.
ian-guest814_13_08-23-2024_105254Also well, we also had a a Lowry.
david_12_08-23-2024_095253Yes. Yep.
ian-guest814_13_08-23-2024_105254mention that? Sorry.
david_12_08-23-2024_095253Yeah, that's okay. No, I did. But you're absolutely correct. And these things are statistically significant. And the way to think about them is went from a severe negative breath reading to a severe extreme positive one. So you saw unified selling in one direction, by a unified buying a different direction. And the way to think about that is kind of like a flush. So you kind of have this, what appears to be a reset happening in the marketplace. Now, like I said, it would make sense if we're red next week and we pause here at the previous highs, but I don't know if you know this, Ian, but the market's never listened to my opinion. It's very sad.
ian-guest814_13_08-23-2024_105254Yeah, I mean, I, I said it last week this is not what I would have guessed the market had done, but I think it just is more proof of how strong of a market it is. And I'm not, and I'm not saying, you know, We don't, we're not going to create some range here between 56, 50 and whatever this is down here, 5, 100, 5, 200.
david_12_08-23-2024_095253Wouldn't that be beautiful? Wouldn't that be just a wonderful digestion of gains to move in that range? Now some might say, well, I don't need it to the range to be that big. But
ian-guest814_13_08-23-2024_105254Yeah.
david_12_08-23-2024_095253everybody, I'll
ian-guest814_13_08-23-2024_105254Beautiful. Beautiful. I mean, as a trend follower, beautiful would be an interesting choice of words.
david_12_08-23-2024_095253yeah,
ian-guest814_13_08-23-2024_105254But I mean, it would be healthy. Like if you zoom down on it and then, you know, we have one more leg down, maybe in the like early October, and then you're out of that to new highs by, I mean, who knows,
david_12_08-23-2024_095253only the market, the good Lord Almighty.
ian-guest814_13_08-23-2024_105254probably election night.
david_12_08-23-2024_095253Yeah, could be.
ian-guest814_13_08-23-2024_105254I mean, also a good time to remind people. And then we'll talk, we definitely will be talking about this in October with clients. And we've harked on this before. We'll probably do it every election year going forward. But, you know, so when politicians are out with their platforms, right, things getting thrown around about Taxes and whatnot and borders. I mean, any, right? Every hot topic under the sun talking about. And of course, you know what? Well, what does that mean for the economy? What's that mean for the stock market? I'm telling you, I'm telling you, I'm telling you. And we've got two months to bake this in as stupid as some of this stuff sounds. Should it come to fruition or not? You just don't know what the market's going to do.
david_12_08-23-2024_095253yeah, I mean, everybody wants to believe that whatever their favorite party is, that's what's going to be best for the market. And then if the other party gets in, it's going to be the demise of the market.
ian-guest814_13_08-23-2024_105254Or even this, you know, like capital gains and unrealized capital gains. And I, you know, that's been a hot topic and yeah, it sounds insane. It sounds insane. You know, they're talking about. Highest capital gains tax forget the unrealized capital gains. Capital gain, realized capital gains tax, 44%. And you can sit back and say, oh my god, that sounds so ludicrous. It's have to be bad for the economy, it has to be bad for the stock market. If she gets elected, this is just going to be horrible. They said the same thing about Trump in 2016. Just adding context. I'm not saying that it's not insane. What does it mean for the stock market? I have zero clues.
david_12_08-23-2024_095253Right. The more open minded you can say, the better chance you have of managing risk. And we've seen it over and over, you know, the portrayal of if, you know, cause remember when Trump was elected, the market was supposed to crash. This was like undoubtedly that was going to happen. Just, you kind of alluded to it just before and following his election for almost 14 months was the lowest volatility uptrend we've seen in history. And so you have to be open to outcomes that if your least favorite gets elected, that the market still might do okay. People don't want to hear that though.
ian-guest814_13_08-23-2024_105254They don't.
david_12_08-23-2024_095253We're pretty a pretty prideful bunch, us
ian-guest814_13_08-23-2024_105254I get it. It's money, sensitive topics, sensitive feelings. But yeah,
david_12_08-23-2024_095253Yeah. And it'll be considered to be a reminder, but and, Here we see a market back above 5400. We see these breath thrusts that have happened since July through now. You see a measurement like advanced decline line, looks good. You mentioned Dow Jones new high, highly correlated. You mentioned NYSE composite new high.
ian-guest814_13_08-23-2024_105254I mean, regional, I mean, regional banks at 5 percent today.
david_12_08-23-2024_095253You don't, you just don't, I don't know if you know this, but you just don't see new highs in the downtrend.
ian-guest814_13_08-23-2024_105254No, not long term highs. I
david_12_08-23-2024_095253And so your point about regional banks, even like the mega ones the big banks like JP
ian-guest814_13_08-23-2024_105254Yeah, Jay, you said yesterday J. P. Morgan's at an all time high.
david_12_08-23-2024_095253Yeah. And that's a major bellwether. I'm not saying bellwether in the sense that it leads the market, but when it's in an uptrend, the market is healthy.
ian-guest814_13_08-23-2024_105254And then you have, I mean, look at a J. P. Morgan. Agree. Bellwether. Look at the break. What was that? August 2nd, right? Was when the first big gas, I mean, you look at that, it breaks below 204 and it's had one, I mean, they came in, I mean, it just, The demand is real. Holy cow. And, I don't I mean, V Bottoms. Still in fashion. Not my favorite style. But, that's what the kids are wearing these days, I guess. V Bottoms. Because, every single time, the demand just comes in.
david_12_08-23-2024_095253yeah. Amber Crombie and Fitch, back in style. V Bottoms,
ian-guest814_13_08-23-2024_105254That's what I hear.
david_12_08-23-2024_095253Yep, interesting. And then, Berkshire Hathaway, same thing, new highs.
ian-guest814_13_08-23-2024_105254Berkshire.
david_12_08-23-2024_095253Eli Lilly, a leader in this market, new highs. And so when you look at the leaders out of the lows, going back to late 22, early 23, the leaders are still intact. And then you have bellwethers like J. P. Morgan and Berkshire Hathaway making new highs. These are just not things you see when the market is in trouble.
ian-guest814_13_08-23-2024_105254Walmart.
david_12_08-23-2024_095253go ahead.
ian-guest814_13_08-23-2024_105254Walmart. I think Walmart was on That's a little bit more of a staple, but
david_12_08-23-2024_095253Well, yeah, I mean, Walmart, Costco, I mean,
ian-guest814_13_08-23-2024_105254Costco. I mean, oof. Costco.
david_12_08-23-2024_095253There's areas that are definitely holding up well and doing well. And I don't know I, it's just really hard to get bearish on a market that continues to record higher highs and higher lows, rising 200 day moving averages, and the leaders keep leading and. The bellwethers continue to hold up well. And I would say, Ian, you've been on top of kind of one of the major things that we need to highlight in this episode, I think, is just, what are we seeing with the dollar?
ian-guest814_13_08-23-2024_105254Dollar. I mean, we're Really Coming in here. We're coming in here. Big move. I mean, really since April, but since the beginning of August is when we started falling off a cliff. And we talked about 104 relentlessly. We are through 104, and as soon as we got through 104, which we got through 104 back in April and didn't do, or February, I'm sorry, and didn't do much. Thank you so much. But this one is very strong, very, or very strong trend to the downside, I should say.
david_12_08-23-2024_095253Yeah. And you're referring to the trade weighted dollar and here we sit at 100 spot 73 and this is a level that we touched from the underside So this 100 nice round number everybody loves round numbers people can remember it 100 from the underside March 2015 December 2015 we cleared it In December of 16, but then fell back through it, came back and touched it, fell back through it in 2020, cleared it with conviction in 2022. But here we are back to the scene of the crime. If we break 100 and sustain trade below 100, you do start to ask yourself about. 96, you start to ask yourself about a price level of 89. 90 and what does that market look like?
ian-guest814_13_08-23-2024_105254Yeah, or even like, I mean, I'd say like, oh, three, if we break to the downside and you get a real weak dollar, let's say the dollar goes back to 70,
david_12_08-23-2024_095253Okay,
ian-guest814_13_08-23-2024_105254right? That's think about. So what last time we did that, what was hot? Gold miners,
david_12_08-23-2024_095253value,
ian-guest814_13_08-23-2024_105254home builders.
david_12_08-23-2024_095253emerging
ian-guest814_13_08-23-2024_105254Yeah, value, banks,
david_12_08-23-2024_095253You're
ian-guest814_13_08-23-2024_105254and you see, I mean, you see that train trying to get on the track. You see it out there under the surface, trying to do it. But you gotta get the megacap tech off the track. And that, that in itself is a very large, long train to figure out what you're going to do with.
david_12_08-23-2024_095253Right. And it's an interesting it could be a both and, you know, like think about how strong of a market it is if you're Semiconductors and large cap tech continue to uptrend and then you see a resurgence in the value trade. I mean that's a pretty healthy market dynamic.
ian-guest814_13_08-23-2024_105254In financials we've got just, now financials fixed themselves yesterday, having a good day today. But it's still just financials and utilities above a relative 200 day
david_12_08-23-2024_095253You're talking from a sector perspective?
ian-guest814_13_08-23-2024_105254a sector perspective.
david_12_08-23-2024_095253So of the 11 sectors on a relative basis versus the S& P it's just utilities and financials?
ian-guest814_13_08-23-2024_105254Yeah,
david_12_08-23-2024_095253Really? Well, and what's interesting is Ian's not saying that the other sectors are in some type of downtrend. In fact, many of them on an absolute basis, so not comparing to the S& P 500 actually are very constructive looking. So then if they are weak versus the S& P, it makes you wonder how much stronger the S& P is
ian-guest814_13_08-23-2024_105254I mean look at XLI. XLI, new highs. I'm pretty sure healthcare is at new highs.
david_12_08-23-2024_095253Right.
ian-guest814_13_08-23-2024_105254at healthcare. I mean, look how strong that chart is. You know, and before today, it was doing nothing on a relative basis.
david_12_08-23-2024_095253Well, and what's interesting is you look at XLI and you look at XLV on a weekly timeframe. We've got a candlestick pattern here called three soldiers and tends to be launch point off of a low. So to see it at this point in the game, along with these breath thrusts is extremely intriguing and not an unexpected development. But do we really get to be surprised by the unexpected in markets? I don't think so because that's all markets do is live on the fat tail and provide us unexpected things And so you have these healthy Digestions and resolutions out of consolidation On an absolute basis. So you just look at them by themselves like they might be underperforming you know, you might have a in austin riley, that's a bad example and acuna who's underperforming the league average The last month, but he's still kicking butt on his own and that's a healthy dynamic to have these different areas holding up well, if the SMP is that much stronger.
ian-guest814_13_08-23-2024_105254I mean look at gold is held up well
david_12_08-23-2024_095253Yeah.
ian-guest814_13_08-23-2024_105254and then you're like, okay, we'll do now There's a difference here between gold and gold miners
david_12_08-23-2024_095253Yes.
ian-guest814_13_08-23-2024_105254You're like, okay. I mean this clearly had up. Well, we've held above what was it? We broke 2100 an ounce or what was it back in? Yeah.
david_12_08-23-2024_095253a gold futures.
ian-guest814_13_08-23-2024_105254Yeah, like 22100 an ounce
david_12_08-23-2024_095253Yep.
ian-guest814_13_08-23-2024_105254and Consolidated and it's held up. We're out of that range. It's had it You know, a nice uptrend up here above 2400. But then when you look at it versus S& P, you say, okay, well, I mean, it does look good. But it doesn't look better now, as I prefaced gold miners, a different story. I think gold miners, you can, and maybe that's the canary, right? Maybe that's the market telling you. Yeah. Gold's definitely going higher because we are, we're buying the miners. Maybe it's a dollar thing. I don't know.
david_12_08-23-2024_095253Yeah. I think your analysis is spot on there. We're like, when you observe. We're market historians, right? When you observe strong gold environments, you typically see the gold miners outperform them, outperform gold itself, and we're starting to see that base, you know, we're talking about, if you look at GDXJ, like gold miners versus gold using something like GLD and you zoom out, this is a potential base that goes back to 2015. And if we start to clear relative levels. I mean, could just be the start for gold miners. Now, sometimes gold miners remind me of it's, you know, it's unproductive cousin, small caps sometimes
ian-guest814_13_08-23-2024_105254Yeah,
david_12_08-23-2024_095253Wait, you're kind of waiting for it to prove itself. And so you look at like GDX, you'd really like to see a clear 42, 43, 44. You look at GDXJ can we clear. 50 to 60 level. And then to your point, then you'd like to see silver miners outperform gold miners.
ian-guest814_13_08-23-2024_105254you would. And that hasn't happened yet, but well, depends on what timeframe you're looking at.
david_12_08-23-2024_095253It'll be interesting to, to see, I mean, is it really that far fetched? If we see the trade weighted dollar cut through 100 to the downside, like a hot knife through butter, is it really that far fetched to think that the things priced in dollars aren't going to accelerate to the upside, like gold? They're derivative gold miners. It's really not that hard of a thesis to see. Now admittedly, and I think you've highlighted this, that. This is also a very logical level where you would expect the trade weighted dollar to pause and see if there's any buyers here. So we're going to get some really tremendous information on a trade weighted dollar basis here, right here, right now in the next few months. And I think when you look at some major currency pairs, it is really interesting. I think you highlighted for the team this week, the British pound.
ian-guest814_13_08-23-2024_105254that's probably my favorite. I mean, I'm not like a 4X person, but I think it looks the best.
david_12_08-23-2024_095253Yeah. I mean, and shoot, look at EWU is a trade, you know, is
ian-guest814_13_08-23-2024_105254Yeah,
david_12_08-23-2024_095253for
ian-guest814_13_08-23-2024_105254look at that.
david_12_08-23-2024_095253And it's breaking a rate of downtrend that goes back to 07. It's clearing a horizontal level at 34. That's been in place since
ian-guest814_13_08-23-2024_105254some new all time highs on Monday.
david_12_08-23-2024_095253Yeah. I mean, it won't be all time highs, but, or wait, are you
ian-guest814_13_08-23-2024_105254Or, sorry, yeah. Sorry, yeah. Not all time highs.
david_12_08-23-2024_095253yes, but you're using now to your point though, I mean, if you
ian-guest814_13_08-23-2024_105254New year to date high.
david_12_08-23-2024_095253in, if you put the dividends in, it is new highs. If you pull them out, I mean, we're making highs that we haven't seen since 2018. No one's really talking about Great Britain positively, I should say. There's a lot of news about Great Britain that's negative, but look at this market
ian-guest814_13_08-23-2024_105254Oh, there you go. There you go. I mean, one of the centerpieces for negative global news at the moment, right? And so clearly that must mean oh my god, look at this country. It's in shambles Look what they've done and I mean, yeah like from a societal perspective Maybe that's true And I don't know maybe that's true from an economic perspective but from a we want to buy british stocks perspective yeah, the demand is there.
david_12_08-23-2024_095253For sure. And I think we're seeing it elsewhere, too. You know, we've talked about Argentina on here in the past. another major area continues to be India. That continues to show promise. You know, you look at like G Lin on ETF growth leaders for India. You look at a DGIN, so a digital India going out to
ian-guest814_13_08-23-2024_105254Yeah.
david_12_08-23-2024_095253highs. You look at INDA, I N D A going out to new all time highs. Now some of these things have a lot of work to do on a relative, but some also look like they're creating pretty large bases on a relative. On a relative basis. So we shall see there's opportunities. Meanwhile, you look at VU total world index minus us versus S and P and it's same as it ever was just a massive downtrend. So it remains to be seen that you can't just buy and hold everything that's international for your modern portfolio theory and expect it to work out well.
ian-guest814_13_08-23-2024_105254No, you cannot.
david_12_08-23-2024_095253What else, Ian, what else are we wanting to highlight for our listeners this week that you want to touch base on?
ian-guest814_13_08-23-2024_105254I mean we talked about breath earlier You And, I mean we've got a lot of advanced decline lines that are already at new highs.
david_12_08-23-2024_095253That's not bearish.
ian-guest814_13_08-23-2024_105254Bullish percent not there yet. But, under the surface, it's not bad. Not as huge in year frame, not out of the woods yet. I mean, IWM, I mean, we're back above 210. So, we're through the gap from last Fri two Friday er, excuse me, three Fridays ago. April er, August sec second. Not what I thought it would look like, but I guess that's why you play the game.
david_12_08-23-2024_095253Right. And I think, like you said, they're just the, we take a weight of evidence approach. And rarely do you see a market environment that checks all the boxes. But we have a market environment that's checking a lot of boxes. And that's a good thing. It's a good thing to see Bellwethers continue to lead To see the leaders off of the bottom in 22, early 23, continue to lead to see breath, not extended. yes, bullish percent just flipped to Xs and it's low in the field, but I rather have that scenario than breath sitting at 90 in Xs knowing that things are likely to get narrow really quick, really fast. And some of these things are just getting started. You know, the Dow theory where we have industrial average making new highs and transportation average has not yet.
ian-guest814_13_08-23-2024_105254Yeah!
david_12_08-23-2024_095253when you look at the transportation average, you also see a scenario where like, man, this looks like accumulation since 2021. And we're about to see
ian-guest814_13_08-23-2024_105254Oof,
david_12_08-23-2024_095253out to the upside.
ian-guest814_13_08-23-2024_105254it does.
david_12_08-23-2024_095253has to do that. You know, you look at, I'm using IYT, IYT has to clear 70 to prove that the buyers are in control of a base that's gone back, you know, cause it hasn't done anything since may of 2021. In effect.
ian-guest814_13_08-23-2024_105254Well, and to your point, you know if you're waiting for your entire checklist to give you the go ahead, I don't know when, I don't know when you're getting involved, maybe like in January of 2018
david_12_08-23-2024_095253I was gonna say like
ian-guest814_13_08-23-2024_105254at the top.
david_12_08-23-2024_095253Yeah, right at the top
ian-guest814_13_08-23-2024_105254If you're waiting for, like, I get it. I'm yeah I'm big on you want to see transports do well. And they haven't, I mean, they've done pretty poorly, but they've been, when they've also been underperformance since 2014, technically. So, I don't know what quote unquote stocks have done since 2014, but I know it's a lot.
david_12_08-23-2024_095253right?
ian-guest814_13_08-23-2024_105254And you're, and you can use that on the show. I mean, yeah that's a big, a longterm view at it, but then yes, same as a, let's take this year. If you are nervous about the market and transports or. Strong, consistent breath or the Russell one, you know, 2000, whatever your little, you know, marker for, Hey, I want to be long. The market is, I mean, none of those have lined up and look where we're at and it's late August and it goes back to, Hey, Those are all fun to look at. I can't tell you how many of those things we look at on our team. So many relationships trying to gauge risk on risk off appetite, you know, going into high beta, low vol go looking at the fixed income. Arena, Junkverse, Barclays Ag, or Creditspreads. Like, there's all these canaries that have been released in the, you know, and you can look at them. But, and some of them, I don't know, some of the canaries don't come out. They do kind of look sickly and, but, I mean, the trend is the trend, right?
david_12_08-23-2024_095253Right. Well, and if you get transportation breaking out of this,
ian-guest814_13_08-23-2024_105254Well, then you've got ye Now, then you were talking about another multiple years of a bull market, probably.
david_12_08-23-2024_095253correct. Yeah. If you're talking, the transports are moving higher and the Dow Jones is moving higher, we might be earlier in this move than previously thought, which that fits. It kind of fits you kind of study sentiment out there, people are really quick to jump on the other side of this. when you look at the surveys of investment managers and how quickly they de allocated or how quickly they moved to a neutral position, it was really quick again. More often than not, you see them not move and that's where the top tends to be.
ian-guest814_13_08-23-2024_105254Yeah,
david_12_08-23-2024_095253we continue to see that at the same time, you know, it's not like put calls blowing out. It's not like people are crazy short this market, I still think from a sentiment standpoint we're living somewhere between skepticism and optimism,
ian-guest814_13_08-23-2024_105254for sure.
david_12_08-23-2024_095253you know, we're not at euphoria. So. The BTFD sentiment is not back. We've been talking about BTFD since the beginning of the year, but nobody else really, and here we have a market where the dip does continue to get bought. And so when other people start talking BTFD, I'll get nervous.
ian-guest814_13_08-23-2024_105254Alright, well, I mean, I think the angst is real. I think your inflation frustration is still alive and well. Oh,
david_12_08-23-2024_095253for sure.
ian-guest814_13_08-23-2024_105254Politically, right? Now we've got Kamala has entered the conversation, so we've got people stressed over What does that mean? Yeah, it's
david_12_08-23-2024_095253Oh, for sure. There's the outside forces or things that are happening are real. An assassination attempt on a presidential candidate. You have a party that decided to ask the incumbent to step down and someone else be put on the ticket who didn't have to run in the primary. I mean, these are the, it is factual. You have things happening in Ukraine. You have things happening in the middle East. These are all, I'm not, you and I are not here to tell people these things are not happening. It's just your opinion on them and attaching to what the market should do We're just trying to encourage people that you really shouldn't marry those two things Because the market's going to do what the market's going to do regardless of your opinion on anything that's going on in the world
ian-guest814_13_08-23-2024_105254Agree.
david_12_08-23-2024_095253All right at this time, you know, I think i'll highlight the of this podcast the adaptive select etf Which is listed on the nyse under ticker ad pv Which helps investors access two of the most prevalent factors in markets, momentum and relative strength. Using proprietary identification methods, the Adaptive Select ETF attempts to own the strongest 25 large cap stocks when the market is in an uptrend. And since not all market environments are the same, Adaptive Select seeks to prevent extended declines by moving to short term treasury bills and cash. during long term market downtrends. can find out more, including how to invest in ADPV by visiting ADPVETF. com or calling 1 833 880 5200. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal distributed by Quasar Distributors LLC. Ian, anything else you want to touch base on before we wrap it up?
ian-guest814_13_08-23-2024_105254It's not, I mean, it's an not trend.
david_12_08-23-2024_095253Uptrend with consolidation possible. We know September and October are seasonally have some more volatility to it. So it wouldn't be surprised that we move sideways from here. But again, like Ian highlighted before, very strong market environment that it rebounded like this as quickly as it did, even surpassing our expectations. And anytime something surprises you or exceeds your expectations, you should step up and take notice. So with that, Ian, you, Ian, you having a fire this weekend or not yet?
ian-guest814_13_08-23-2024_105254Yeah. I think we'll definitely. I'm gonna, I'll have to look at the weather app. I think it'll be chilly enough. I mean, we're down. It's tough. It's tough. We're,
david_12_08-23-2024_095253First world problems.
ian-guest814_13_08-23-2024_105254yeah. First world problems. How do I force a fire pit
david_12_08-23-2024_095253Yeah,
ian-guest814_13_08-23-2024_105254session?
david_12_08-23-2024_095253Yeah. They're great. I hope it works out that you have the patience to withstand it. Until it's the right time. But with that, I appreciate you being on here with me. It's always a good time and we hope those listening appreciate it. You know, last weekend we had a fair amount of people share the podcast and give us high rankings. We'd like to see that continue. So please do that. It helps us get the word out, especially if you find these valuable. So thanks for listening, everyone.
ian-guest814_13_08-23-2024_105254Have a great weekend.