The Weekly Trend
The Weekly Trend
Episode: 261 Can't Complain
Use Left/Right to seek, Home/End to jump to start or end. Hold shift to jump forward or backward.
In this week’s episode, Ian and Kevin talk about the continued signs of risk-on behavior, like growth versus value, Bitcoin continuing higher, alt coins moving higher, international areas of fixed income, and convertible bonds. They also discuss how Chinese equities are beginning to look interesting, the Russell 2000 and return contribution rates.
Welcome back to the Weekly Trend Podcast. Today is July 18th, 2025 s and p sitting at 6 2 9 2, which is the highest number ever said on this podcast in this segment. This intro segment. I am joined by Kevin Ferrari today. How are you doing, Kevin?
it-support_1_07-18-2025_100302Not too bad. I'll say if we're saying higher numbers every week, can't really complain about that.
squadcaster-26bg_1_07-18-2025_110259That's so like we were talking about, uh, this morning, it's just life is so much easier when markets go up,
it-support_1_07-18-2025_100302Yeah, I mean, it's hard to find anything really to complain about that matters really at that point,
squadcaster-26bg_1_07-18-2025_110259right? And what two, how many weeks ago did we break to all time highs? So it would've been late June. So we've been there about, we've been, we broke above to new all time highs above kind of that 61 50 area Friday, June 27th. So yeah, about three weeks.
it-support_1_07-18-2025_100302a month
squadcaster-26bg_1_07-18-2025_110259And here we are broke to new highs. Right? Definitely, definitely not bearish, excuse me. And quite a few areas have been pretty solid. Now the, the s and p, even really the last couple weeks kind of flattish
it-support_1_07-18-2025_100302yeah, really from pretty much all of July for the most part.
squadcaster-26bg_1_07-18-2025_110259but a lot of other things. Around the market have not paused.
it-support_1_07-18-2025_100302mm-hmm. Yeah. Kind of like, your growth versus value
squadcaster-26bg_1_07-18-2025_110259Yes.
it-support_1_07-18-2025_100302I mean, growth still kind of continues to lead. So things like, tech communication services, things along that front, um, still
squadcaster-26bg_1_07-18-2025_110259Yeah. A lot of the software, a lot of these high beta software names, um, some. A lot of the stuff like that was big in 2021. Some of it stayed pretty strong. A lot of it's seems to be coming back. So maybe a little a little bit of a risk on appetite, especially in those names. We've seen spurts of that over the last few years, but never really got going. So. We will see, but hey, all time highs. And then you got Bitcoin,
it-support_1_07-18-2025_100302Mm-hmm.
squadcaster-26bg_1_07-18-2025_110259right? Last week on the podcast, we were talking about Bitcoin continuing to consolidate. Big breakout. I think it got up to like 123,000, 122,000 earlier in the week, sitting right now around 1 17, 1 18. So Bitcoin out of its consolidation. In the direction that, uh, was most likely. And here we are.
it-support_1_07-18-2025_100302Ethereum lately has been
squadcaster-26bg_1_07-18-2025_110259Yeah.
it-support_1_07-18-2025_100302kind of pushing higher actually, that. If you look at, Ethereum versus Bitcoin been outperforming here over the last, few months,
squadcaster-26bg_1_07-18-2025_110259And we've got the other,
it-support_1_07-18-2025_100302of late the last few weeks, so,
squadcaster-26bg_1_07-18-2025_110259yeah. And we've got the other, um. Yeah, Ethereum looks great, especially back up above this like 2,900 level
it-support_1_07-18-2025_100302mm-hmm.
squadcaster-26bg_1_07-18-2025_1102593000 in there. I was sitting at almost 3,600. And then you had,
it-support_1_07-18-2025_100302Other coins like Tron,
squadcaster-26bg_1_07-18-2025_110259I was, that's exactly what I just pulled up. Tron
it-support_1_07-18-2025_100302Yep.
squadcaster-26bg_1_07-18-2025_110259Ripple.
it-support_1_07-18-2025_100302mm-hmm.
squadcaster-26bg_1_07-18-2025_110259Maybe a little alt season going on for the crypto lovers. So, I mean, another risk on sign, lot of aggressive buying out there and some pretty, uh, pretty high beta stuff. Um. Those, uh, what are those pictures that people used to buy the yacht? The, uh, the apes
it-support_1_07-18-2025_100302Oh yeah.
squadcaster-26bg_1_07-18-2025_110259NFTs.
it-support_1_07-18-2025_100302there you go.
squadcaster-26bg_1_07-18-2025_110259Golly, that's
it-support_1_07-18-2025_100302It
squadcaster-26bg_1_07-18-2025_110259bad. I couldn't even think of the acronym.
it-support_1_07-18-2025_100302It feels like it was a decade ago, but it
squadcaster-26bg_1_07-18-2025_110259I mean, you never hear about, so I don't know. Maybe if they're buying the, the Yacht club Apes, uh, I forget the name of'em. I know those were the. Most popular ones, but that would be something I pretty good week for Russell you know, s and p consolidating. But Russell broke above. Its 200 day I mean, really textbook broke, I mean, a few weeks or a couple weeks ago, right. And then kind of came back to touch, retest the 200 to eighth. Now
it-support_1_07-18-2025_100302Yeah. It's
squadcaster-26bg_1_07-18-2025_110259higher.
it-support_1_07-18-2025_100302dab in the middle of that range where it kinda spent quite a bit of time back in like. 2020. End of 2020.
squadcaster-26bg_1_07-18-2025_110259Oh gosh, Kevin, why'd you have to bring that up?
it-support_1_07-18-2025_100302Just saying.
squadcaster-26bg_1_07-18-2025_110259Yeah, yeah. Definitely in that nightmare-ish range. I mean, this is, it still has work to do. It has. I mean, I feel like we got head above water, like above two 10 on IWM. Like, okay, head is above water, but we're not, we still got a waste to get to shore.
it-support_1_07-18-2025_100302Right,
squadcaster-26bg_1_07-18-2025_110259so
it-support_1_07-18-2025_100302now, which is a
squadcaster-26bg_1_07-18-2025_110259at least, and yeah, at least it's above a 200 day. I mean, it's a flat 200 day, but I, I'll take it.
it-support_1_07-18-2025_100302mm-hmm.
squadcaster-26bg_1_07-18-2025_110259We just want to get it. Moving Dow has yet to get to new highs either, but you know, whatever.
it-support_1_07-18-2025_100302Right is what it is.
squadcaster-26bg_1_07-18-2025_110259That's just kind of the turtle that never keeps up. I assume he'll get there, right? I mean, we talked about yesterday in breadth, all these advanced decline lines look pretty solid. They have all gotten the new highs. So I'd assume eventually. And like the DAO will get there. In the indices that are already there, I would assume that they do hold these hives. We haven't really seen any big divergences in participation. I mean, you even had NYSE advanced decline line looks good. I mean, and that's a great looking chart if as far as. You wanna look at the, the broad, broad, super broad stock market, NYSC, breaking out retest of the, uh, November 20, 24 and February highs and likely high. I mean, we can consolidate here for a bit. I'd be okay with that, but.
it-support_1_07-18-2025_100302Okay. That's all constructive, right? It definitely doesn't create the feeling you know, that we're not gonna continue moving higher, at least, hold up right. In the near future here.
squadcaster-26bg_1_07-18-2025_110259What about,
it-support_1_07-18-2025_100302I mean, even
squadcaster-26bg_1_07-18-2025_110259what are the
it-support_1_07-18-2025_100302today out to all time high.
squadcaster-26bg_1_07-18-2025_110259utilities out to? All time highs underperforming. Not today. It's not underperforming, but
it-support_1_07-18-2025_100302but generally
squadcaster-26bg_1_07-18-2025_110259the trend. Yeah, the trend is, I mean that's, it's exactly, exactly exactly what I mean. I wish Russell would do that, to be honest. What about fixed income? Is the bond market saying we need to be heading for shelter?
it-support_1_07-18-2025_100302No, I mean, we've been talking about risk on, you know, for like equity sectors. I mean, fixed income, kinda the same deal. Like your international bond still doing really well. You use like Igov or IBND. For the most part holding up well on a relative basis and even on absolute you know, we were kind of talking a little bit before here too, convertible bonds. I've really been rolling here lately, which is
squadcaster-26bg_1_07-18-2025_110259good.
it-support_1_07-18-2025_100302you know, and even just, you know, looking at junk bonds, j and k versus TLT, I mean that relative chart's, at levels that we haven't really seen since. 2014,
squadcaster-26bg_1_07-18-2025_110259Wow, that's crazy.
it-support_1_07-18-2025_100302doesn't seem to be too risk off to me.
squadcaster-26bg_1_07-18-2025_110259I mean, could you imagine if this j and k verse t, LT, right. And so this bottom, during COVID, this whole relationship, at least I, I have it on an unadjusted chart. Bottoms during COVID at this rate of trend. Just to get back to the previous highs, I mean, you could have multiple years of risk on behavior still ahead of you,
it-support_1_07-18-2025_100302Mm-hmm.
squadcaster-26bg_1_07-18-2025_110259just in, from this one, kind of, I'd say it's pretty good. I mean. We love, I love fixed income markets for their kind of clues that they give, right? We talk about that all the time on here. We talk about it as a team. I mean, you could have this trend going into the late twenties, early thirties, and just be getting back to where you were before the GFC.
it-support_1_07-18-2025_100302Right,
squadcaster-26bg_1_07-18-2025_110259That be something, or, or we just really continue to hate long-term treasuries because rates go higher
it-support_1_07-18-2025_100302right.
squadcaster-26bg_1_07-18-2025_110259and rates continue to not break down. I know there's a lot of chatter. It's not really our world, uh, on whether there's gonna be a rate cut this year. I don't know.
it-support_1_07-18-2025_100302I hate to see Jerome Powell's dms right now.
squadcaster-26bg_1_07-18-2025_110259Oh my gosh.
it-support_1_07-18-2025_100302to watch.
squadcaster-26bg_1_07-18-2025_110259Or his like email inbox. He probably gets so many questions. Yeah. Not, not a job I envy. I don't think he's done bad as, I mean That's right. That's a pretty lot of people. Uh, with different opinions on Jerome Powell, I guess any Fed chair, right?
it-support_1_07-18-2025_100302I would say that's a job where you could, I mean, I don't think it really matters
squadcaster-26bg_1_07-18-2025_110259I mean, minus yelling, but then I feel like there was like, oh, you can't be mean, can't be mean to grandma.
it-support_1_07-18-2025_100302Mm-hmm.
squadcaster-26bg_1_07-18-2025_110259looking back on it, I don't know. We'll save that. We'll, if we ever do a macro podcast or a a Fed podcast episode, maybe we will talk about that. So we will see, I will, we'll say this long end of the curve, not really budget to be honest. Like it's where, still up near the high end of this range that we've been in for 18, 24 months. About 20 months. I don't know. To tell you, but no clues, no clues, no signs there that we're gonna be cutting interest rates. So I guess I'm not refinancing.
it-support_1_07-18-2025_100302Yeah, I don't think, I'm not expecting to do that for a very long time.
squadcaster-26bg_1_07-18-2025_110259Foreign anything. Has it recovered?
it-support_1_07-18-2025_100302I mean, I think you still have kind of your pockets that are still performing really well. Like, I mean, grease hasn't sold, slowed down for months.
squadcaster-26bg_1_07-18-2025_110259You do have to pick your pocket. It is like playing pool,
it-support_1_07-18-2025_100302Rent. Yeah. No, no. Slap for sure.
squadcaster-26bg_1_07-18-2025_110259China, that working up.
it-support_1_07-18-2025_100302Yeah, that's probably the most interesting one.
squadcaster-26bg_1_07-18-2025_110259I mean, even Chinese healthcare looks good, which is,
it-support_1_07-18-2025_100302which is because
squadcaster-26bg_1_07-18-2025_110259I mean, okay, like that kind of gets my attention
it-support_1_07-18-2025_100302Mm-hmm.
squadcaster-26bg_1_07-18-2025_110259if we're being honest.
it-support_1_07-18-2025_100302Yeah. Because like looking through healthcare ETFs, you know, they're really our only two that even paid a look at. One kinda talking about earlier too, is that psychedelics fund, what is that? PSIL
squadcaster-26bg_1_07-18-2025_110259PSIL.
it-support_1_07-18-2025_100302and then Chinese healthcare. Those are like the only two that. Really pays to look at. So
squadcaster-26bg_1_07-18-2025_110259what they're, is that what they're getting into over there?
it-support_1_07-18-2025_100302I
squadcaster-26bg_1_07-18-2025_110259Is that like a, uh. Is that a theme in itself? Psychedelics and Chinese healthcare hand in hand.
it-support_1_07-18-2025_100302I
squadcaster-26bg_1_07-18-2025_110259The new frontier of healthcare. Chinese, LSD.
it-support_1_07-18-2025_100302I mean,
squadcaster-26bg_1_07-18-2025_110259That sounds safe.
it-support_1_07-18-2025_100302No. Right. kidding. I mean, even like Chinese.
squadcaster-26bg_1_07-18-2025_110259Yeah,
it-support_1_07-18-2025_100302internet tech, I mean, that's been holding up fairly
squadcaster-26bg_1_07-18-2025_110259that's.
it-support_1_07-18-2025_100302Just, you know, large cap Chinese equities in general using FXI Looks really good.
squadcaster-26bg_1_07-18-2025_110259Well, even that EMQQ
it-support_1_07-18-2025_100302Mm-hmm.
squadcaster-26bg_1_07-18-2025_110259was in the, I mean, discretionaries kind of hit or miss
it-support_1_07-18-2025_100302Yep.
squadcaster-26bg_1_07-18-2025_110259the EMQQ out to actually all time highs today. Relative chart trying to turn it around. So also a little bit of, I think China's. Still gets considered as an emerging market, I feel like.
it-support_1_07-18-2025_100302Mm-hmm. Yeah, because like Asia, so I mean, I guess not China specifically, but you know, emerging markets, Asia is like 65% of EMQQ.
squadcaster-26bg_1_07-18-2025_110259Yeah.
it-support_1_07-18-2025_100302actually
squadcaster-26bg_1_07-18-2025_110259They got like Alibaba and all that in there.
it-support_1_07-18-2025_100302Right? So I mean, it. Is that risk off if China's starting to finally pick up steam here again?
squadcaster-26bg_1_07-18-2025_110259Maybe, I think I looked that up a few years ago. Like a certain percent of your population has to be, so these, it's all based on the MSCI, I think that's who like figures out what's like a, uh, frontier market. What's an emerging market? Or at least in like the financial services stock categorization world, they kind of are in that and it's something like a certain percentage of your population has to be middle class or what they deem middle class. I don't think China's like ever really gotten there. I think they do have a big middle class, but as far as you know, nominally,
it-support_1_07-18-2025_100302Right,
squadcaster-26bg_1_07-18-2025_110259but like percentage wise. Still can't move the needle. But hey, if you can invest in it, it doesn't really matter to me if it's emerging or developed,
it-support_1_07-18-2025_100302right.
squadcaster-26bg_1_07-18-2025_110259But definitely something to pay attention to. What about commodities?
it-support_1_07-18-2025_100302Well, I can say that, live cattle, feeder cattle, definitely not slowing down, it looks like anytime soon. So beef pretty strong. Hogs kind of up against resistance, so I guess what we'll see there.
squadcaster-26bg_1_07-18-2025_110259Hogs up against resistance. We got'em pinned.
it-support_1_07-18-2025_100302But we'll see.
squadcaster-26bg_1_07-18-2025_110259Gold,
it-support_1_07-18-2025_100302You never know what happens up there, eh, gold just hanging out.
squadcaster-26bg_1_07-18-2025_110259flat, flat, flat. Consolidating silver though already made a little move. We'll see that relationship has definitely improved.
it-support_1_07-18-2025_100302Yep. Yeah. And copper's kind of held up well for the most part.
squadcaster-26bg_1_07-18-2025_110259Yeah. Speaking of China, isn't that like a thing for the macro, um, big brains like China and copper and aren't those kind of like linked,
it-support_1_07-18-2025_100302It could be.
squadcaster-26bg_1_07-18-2025_110259could be is a correct answer? I wouldn't know, Ian. I just look at the charts.
it-support_1_07-18-2025_100302I have no idea.
squadcaster-26bg_1_07-18-2025_110259It's something I read on X, so it's probably true. I mean, I have read it like 19 times on X over the years, maybe even more so.
it-support_1_07-18-2025_100302You know, and it, I guess, I don't know this either, but like rare Earth metals, is that kind
squadcaster-26bg_1_07-18-2025_110259Is that a China thing
it-support_1_07-18-2025_100302I don't know.
squadcaster-26bg_1_07-18-2025_110259or they just own this mp?
it-support_1_07-18-2025_100302Let's see. So if you look at REMX,
squadcaster-26bg_1_07-18-2025_110259You are. They do have a lot of Chinese holdings,
it-support_1_07-18-2025_10030228.5%. Chinese, I'm assuming CN is China.
squadcaster-26bg_1_07-18-2025_110259but if you go to, all right, if we go to Koi fin free advertising for Koi Fin here, and then we look up their contribution, I wonder if it's all mp.
it-support_1_07-18-2025_100302I mean that's gonna be a big part of it
squadcaster-26bg_1_07-18-2025_110259Speaking of mp, I think now would be a good time to share with you the support of our, this podcast, the adaptive Select ETF listed on the NYSE under ticker A DPV helps investors access two of the most prevalent factors in markets, momentum and relative strength through proprietary identification methods. The adaptive Select ETF attempts to own the strongest 25 large cap stocks when the market is in an uptrend. And since not all market environments are the same, adaptive select seeks to prevent extended declines by moving to short-term treasury bills and cash during long-term market down trends. Investors can find out more including how to invest in A DPV by visiting adp v etf.com or calling 1 8 3 3 8 8 0 5200 investing. Involves risk, including the possible loss of principle distributed by Quasar Distributors, LLC. Thank you A DPV for supporting this podcast in supporting Kevin and i's Jobs.
it-support_1_07-18-2025_100302Right. And so while you were through that, I looked up the, uh, REMX contributions. So outta the top 10, five of'em are Chinese companies,
squadcaster-26bg_1_07-18-2025_110259There you go.
it-support_1_07-18-2025_100302and actually the second one, the second largest year to date, obviously MP blows these outta the water. But the next highest one this is 323 basis points. Year to date is Chen Northern Rare Earth Group.
squadcaster-26bg_1_07-18-2025_110259So you take an FXI sitting near multi-year highs on an absolute basis and a relative up trip. I mean, this thing is kind of a Bronco but you are getting a bounce off the relative 200 day. So if you were interested in China, I think you'd know pretty quickly if this is gonna be a thing, and certainly on a relative basis, I don't think, I mean, hasn't gotten away. Golly. Now we're a CCP propaganda podcast.
it-support_1_07-18-2025_100302I probably just made like A-C-A-A-F-B-I watch list.
squadcaster-26bg_1_07-18-2025_110259Now we just got dinged. They're listening in now.
it-support_1_07-18-2025_100302That's all right. No
squadcaster-26bg_1_07-18-2025_110259Oh, we have a group of new listeners from Northern Virginia qu.
it-support_1_07-18-2025_100302more the merrier. Just gotta pump those stats up.
squadcaster-26bg_1_07-18-2025_110259Anything else you would like to share with our listeners and clients before we depart for the weekend? Well, we have to work, but it's Friday.
it-support_1_07-18-2025_100302No, nothing too crazy. I mean, we always talk about checking boxes and I mean, it, it's, there's not really too many boxes really that are unchecked. I mean, even like some of those value sectors that aren't performing well this week or really performing well on a relative basis for the most part, are at least still holding up on an absolute basis like XLE not so hot this week, but. You know, essentially sideways for a couple years. It's not like it's getting sold off really hard. X lb two, kind of similar, maybe a little bit of a wider range than XLE, but holding up for the most part on an absolute basis. I mean, really the, the one that kinda is probably the most troubling is just healthcare. I mean, that's kind of in.
squadcaster-26bg_1_07-18-2025_110259Terrible. I.
it-support_1_07-18-2025_100302Kind of a crazy range. It looks like it's gonna be trying to build out here between, I don't know, one and like one 40. It could bounce
squadcaster-26bg_1_07-18-2025_110259Just
it-support_1_07-18-2025_100302like it did.
squadcaster-26bg_1_07-18-2025_110259flat out not participating. I don't even think it's like a top 10 holdings thing like it's healthcare sucks, Has sucked,
it-support_1_07-18-2025_100302it's pretty rough.
squadcaster-26bg_1_07-18-2025_110259continues to suck.
it-support_1_07-18-2025_100302There's a few pockets, like really, pharma is not too bad. I mean, I don't know that you could necessarily, you know, say that across the board though, either, like if you look at PJP, eh, it's
squadcaster-26bg_1_07-18-2025_110259and look what they did to
it-support_1_07-18-2025_100302up above
squadcaster-26bg_1_07-18-2025_110259our boy UI Lily.
it-support_1_07-18-2025_10030284. Yeah.
squadcaster-26bg_1_07-18-2025_110259Remember Lily, how strong that was.
it-support_1_07-18-2025_100302Mm-hmm.
squadcaster-26bg_1_07-18-2025_110259Nothing for basically a year. It's still, and it's still one of the better look. I mean,
it-support_1_07-18-2025_100302Right. Yeah.
squadcaster-26bg_1_07-18-2025_110259but yeah.
it-support_1_07-18-2025_100302Lily is almost 13% XLV, and.
squadcaster-26bg_1_07-18-2025_110259And UNH is, I mean, it's looks like, right, because we talked about that. I don't know if you talked about on here, we've definitely talked about it on market call with this. Yeah. So UNH guide hit really didn't even try to bounce just went sideways, looks like. That downtrend is going to continue, uh, unless we can somehow get back above like 300, 2 95, 300.
it-support_1_07-18-2025_100302Mm-hmm.
squadcaster-26bg_1_07-18-2025_110259it's a bleak, bleak world out there for healthcare.
it-support_1_07-18-2025_100302I think that's kind of probably one of the main reasons, know that Russell really probably doesn't.
squadcaster-26bg_1_07-18-2025_110259That's a good point.
it-support_1_07-18-2025_100302better because I mean, that's like 15% IWM. And if you look at just year to date return contribution, healthcare is the largest contributor to the downside.
squadcaster-26bg_1_07-18-2025_110259Oh, so you're telling me that small cap therapeutic stocks with phase two FDA trials are not outperforming?
it-support_1_07-18-2025_100302It doesn't look like it at this point in time.
squadcaster-26bg_1_07-18-2025_110259I'm shocked. I am shocked. But you know what? Why? I guess it's by market cap. Part of me. I mean, I guess Ru Russell, I think Russell does make good indices because it's truly market cap tiered and I guess they, yeah, they just, that's where a lot of these biotech stuff. Falls unfortunately for them. Same with regional banks, but hey, when they're, when they're working in school
it-support_1_07-18-2025_100302Right.
squadcaster-26bg_1_07-18-2025_110259and they, but then you even had stuff like industrials. Where was Dave saying that small cap industrials was, but that was small cap industrials versus small caps. Right. Versus Russell is the new highs. PSCI versus IWM. Yeah. Well it's getting hit today, but yeah, there's definitely, I mean, there's things out there if you wanna go look for'em in the small cap world, but, uh, you had mentioned it earlier in the podcast, it's still very much a growth overvalue environment, so.
it-support_1_07-18-2025_100302Yeah,
squadcaster-26bg_1_07-18-2025_110259Probably better ways to spend your time
it-support_1_07-18-2025_100302for
squadcaster-26bg_1_07-18-2025_110259than trying to find needles in the small cap haystack.
it-support_1_07-18-2025_100302Yeah. But if that's what you're into, man, let it, let it rip.
squadcaster-26bg_1_07-18-2025_110259Yeah. I mean, if you're a small cap portfolio manager,
it-support_1_07-18-2025_100302You gotta do what you gotta do.
squadcaster-26bg_1_07-18-2025_110259first off, God bless you. I don't envy you, but uh, I get it. Well, I think that wraps it up for this week. Kevin. Thank you so much for joining me and. We hope all of our listeners have a great weekend.
it-support_1_07-18-2025_100302Yep. Have a great weekend.