Episode 262: Virtual Seasonality

In this week’s episode, David and Ian discuss the down start to August, seasonality, market breadth, the increase in the put/call ratio and the VIX. They also discuss areas that are showing relative strength and relative weakness, like growth vs. value, high beta vs. low volatility, and momentum. They also discuss how the overall trend in the market remains up, precious metals and industrial metals, Bitcoin, and fixed income updates. 

Transcript

david_1_08-01-2025_101644 0:27

Welcome back to the Weekly Tread podcast. Today is Friday, August 1st, 2025 s and P 500, currently sitting at 62 43. I'm David Darling, I'm here with Ian McMillan. Just had the Hall of Fame game last night and we just have a movement in the market today, the first day of August. That's using the s and p. Basically erased all of July's gains Markets happen fast.

ian_1_08-01-2025_111641 0:51

The trade off we got for getting football back.

david_1_08-01-2025_101644 0:54

Yeah.

ian_1_08-01-2025_111641 0:54

Said you get your football back, but we're gonna take some money from you.

david_1_08-01-2025_101644 0:57

So Uptrends still intact, but August is here.

ian_1_08-01-2025_111641 1:01

August is here. A lot of talk about seasonality coming into August. And it has had a, I would say, had quite a few people on the edge of their seats. Hard for me to get excited about it and kind of until we see something out of it. But the warriors may have been right, even if we don't have a big drawdown, probably some volatility for a bit.

david_1_08-01-2025_101644 1:28

Well, yeah, you can. You can never invest solely on seasonality. It's just about paying attention on when it's here and when it's not. And August is notoriously light. And in post-election years, even more so. I mean, post-election years, which we're in August, is one of the worst months, right behind February. So not surprising. Not surprising to the least, but at the same time you don't, you can't really guess on that. There's been previous times where the market still rises in August and September, but

ian_1_08-01-2025_111641 1:59

20. So would that have been LA August, 2021?

david_1_08-01-2025_101644 2:04

when, even if, I mean if you look back at, you know, post-election years. I see you're looking at like when president Biden was elected.

ian_1_08-01-2025_111641 2:13

Yeah. Yeah. It got a little choppy in there. into September.

david_1_08-01-2025_101644 2:18

So, yeah, I mean, it's a normal part of markets and what I find interesting, a couple things is that, you know, the Dow Jones never made a new high. Not that's the end all, be all. I mean, Dow Jones is a laggard. But plenty of other indices had made new highs. And then I would say even starting yesterday, the uptick in put call ratio investors taking on hedges quickly it's when they don't that you get nervous. Like it's actually a good characteristic to see a put call ratio rise.

ian_1_08-01-2025_111641 2:50

Yeah.

david_1_08-01-2025_101644 2:51

Pretty heavily on days like yesterday and today.'Cause all those guys are future buying fuel. It's when they don't, it's when they don't hedge that the animal spirits are intact. And a further correction could be bigger, but there's some, you know, important levels. When you look at s and p 500, I think this July price action from the first part of July and year 62 40 on the s and p 500 is important. And then the prior highs near 61 20 to 61 40. You wanna be able to hold that. And then you got the 200 day moving average at 5,900. Dare I say it?

ian_1_08-01-2025_111641 3:29

Yeah, if we get down to the, well, it doesn't happen to happen that way. Certainly, yeah. You don't want a false breakdown. I mean, always my vote is if we gotta do it, let's just go sideways. So. That would be healthy. It's not as fun. I like to see stocks go up every week just as much as the next guy, but if we gotta take a break much rather just go sideways between here and the February highs 21, I'm sorry, 61, 40, 61 50, somewhere in there. We never got. Now I'll tell you, I mean we kind of discussed this the other day on the call. So Dow never got to all time highs. It kind of got up here, stuck at like 45,000 around there, I think maybe a little over 45,000. Equal weight. S and p

david_1_08-01-2025_101644 4:21

Yeah.

ian_1_08-01-2025_111641 4:21

never got to. All time highs. Neither did Russell 2000, I don't know if anyone was holding or their breath for that one.

david_1_08-01-2025_101644 4:29

On the Russell 2000 is still well off its highs it's below its own 200 day.

ian_1_08-01-2025_111641 4:35

Flat 200 day.

david_1_08-01-2025_101644 4:36

But it, yeah, which we know is, can be a hot mess. And we're bouncing today off the volume weighted average price in small caps that goes back to it's high in November of 24. So see if we can stick it here with the jump and put call, jump in the vix. You know, volatility is in the twenties using the vix, you know, is there more to happen? To be determined, but I think it's healthy for a market that's had a substantial move off of the April lows to go and head and have some price discovery to the downside, even when it doesn't feel well and it matches the seasonality.

ian_1_08-01-2025_111641 5:16

Does.

david_1_08-01-2025_101644 5:16

of the important things you can do as a technician is look across the landscape and see where there's relative strength and relative weakness. And I think it's interesting that. Even in today's tape, growth over value is still holding up well, high beta over low vol, high beta, over low vol. Yes, it's down that relationship's down today, but it's not so much so that it causes concern, momentum factor, you know, if we use MTUM holding up well on a relative basis, in fact outperforming today. So on a big down day.

ian_1_08-01-2025_111641 5:47

been fine.

david_1_08-01-2025_101644 5:48

Breath has been fine. I know it's weakened. I know, you know, by some measurements it's kind of fallen off during July. Totally get that.

ian_1_08-01-2025_111641 5:55

decline line I should have specified? Yeah, definitely some divergences. If you're looking at kind of like shorter term, if you're looking at like 5,000 day moving average participation, there's definitely some divergences there, but advanced decline lines still. Okay.

david_1_08-01-2025_101644 6:17

Yeah, I agree. There's breath measurements that are just fine and there's breath me measurements that have had a divergence for a month, and those divergences don't have to matter at all, and they only tend to matter when they do. It one of those things, again there's no signal necessarily there that's just environmental information. And so now we gotta see if we're in price discovery mode to the downside, we gotta see where buyers are willing to step up or sellers are willing to be done selling. But it's interesting that growth over value still exists. High beta over low vol still exists. Momentum factor still holding up. I mean that's, those are some pretty good. Environmental pieces of information, but on the flip side, you know, do we have a false breakout in Meg stocks? Could be a little bit of a problem, you know, is it, does that resolve itself sideways or do we continue to see downward pressure on the really large names, especially right after earnings here? I think that's important to pay attention to.

ian_1_08-01-2025_111641 7:14

that reaction yesterday's reaction, right? I mean, we had a little bit of what was it, Wednesday? A rough close and then or a rough day and better close right into the uh, what was it, Microsoft and Meta that reported.

david_1_08-01-2025_101644 7:31

Yep.

ian_1_08-01-2025_111641 7:32

And yeah, that excitement was pretty much to those two stocks yesterday. I usually would've seen a little bit more, I mentioned this before we hopped on here, but the fact that semiconductors I know neither of those two stocks are semiconductors, but typically, you would've seen bullish action flow through to a lot of things. I would say under the nasdaq. Usually those. Produce kind of large ripple effects across anything tech related. So with with those two earnings reports and it really giving no boost to anything else in tech yesterday, was kind of another sign that, okay, we might be getting a little lethargic out here. At least when looking at the broad indices.

david_1_08-01-2025_101644 8:25

Yeah, for sure. Going back to that, we've had such a great run. Of the April lows after the tariff tantrum. I think it's, I think it's important to note that this type of price action you have one of two ways to view it. You know, are you selling everything?'cause that's the top is in, or are you viewing any short term correction as an opportunity to add exposure? And I, I think based on the. Trend data that we follow, that the trend is still intact. You know, whether you're looking at horizontal price levels or something as simple as a 200 day moving average, the trend is still up. And so now you're dare I say, looking to buy the dip, which isn't the mantra right now out there, there's a lot of negativity, you know, supposed to have a recession. This, the market can't keep doing this. And maybe that's true. We'll find out six to 12 months from now. But typically you don't see that type of sentiment out there in the market. Follow. And if we do get a further corrective behavior, you know, let's say third three to 7%, sentiment's probably only gonna get more negative. But call ratio only rate rise higher, VIX will only rise higher. And that's typically not what you see in your market tops. But we'll see. That's why we study priced.

ian_1_08-01-2025_111641 9:43

Yeah, and I don't, seems so on the edge of their seats. But maybe everyone's right. It just kind of feels like we've been waiting for this drop. Maybe this is it. And then, but to your point, then we get spooked so quickly when I say we. Or actually would not put Dave and I in that category, but market to participants as a whole. Just the quick spikes and puts a call. The sentiment out there also makes me think that come Monday we're talking about all time highs again,

david_1_08-01-2025_101644 10:17

Right.

ian_1_08-01-2025_111641 10:17

It's been, I have no idea. The most important thing to Dave's point is that the trend does remain up. I think as long as you're above a rising 200 day and as long as you're above 61 50 you can yeah, pick your spots to add exposure. Rotate exposure. I think gold looks attractive right now.

david_1_08-01-2025_101644 10:40

Yeah, gold. Look, gold is setting up really nicely considering what the dollar did last month. The dollar being so strong last month and printing a bullish engulfing candle, that gold held up the way it has. I think that's tremendous information for gold, which we've been talking about for a while as far as digesting the move that it had. Might provide an opportunity here.

ian_1_08-01-2025_111641 10:58

think it's giving you an entry on a relative chart. So yes, stocks had super strong in July. Gold goes sideways. So that relative chart which had quite the move earlier in the year, has now reset itself back to a 200 day back to kind of this base that it broke out of. I'm not gonna say it's textbook, but there's, I mean, there's a lot of clues there that tell you if you didn't get in on gold the first time, or maybe you mistimed it, you could be getting a second shot at it here.

david_1_08-01-2025_101644 11:33

Yeah, for the second half of the year. Completely agree with that. And I, you know, on the flip side, you have copper that just got hammered this week. You know, I can't recall last time I've seen,

ian_1_08-01-2025_111641 11:45

I don't think ever.

david_1_08-01-2025_101644 11:46

yeah. Copper move.

ian_1_08-01-2025_111641 11:48

in a day. Yeah.

david_1_08-01-2025_101644 11:49

It's down 20%. Now recording What would, what a technician would call a false breakout. We had broke out above$5 and 25 cents since, lost that very quickly this week. And I know, I understand there's tariff news around that. Totally get it. But when you just look at price, you know, copper damaged on the flip side, you get gold holding up as well as it did with the dollar rising. I don't think that's, I don't think that's a bad thing for gold or precious metals at all.

ian_1_08-01-2025_111641 12:21

No.

david_1_08-01-2025_101644 12:22

I think at this time, silver. Yeah.

ian_1_08-01-2025_111641 12:25

Yeah, silver. I mean, it's in an uptrend. I would say the relative chart is still not, I mean, it could be. Could be. I could see it happening here over the next couple weeks.

david_1_08-01-2025_101644 12:35

Oh, are you saying you're keeping an open mind, Ian?

ian_1_08-01-2025_111641 12:37

I am. also has a base that, relative base that needs to break out of.

david_1_08-01-2025_101644 12:44

Well, I think keeping an open mind is an important part of the investment process. You know, when you use price, you're just having a thesis and price has to confirm or refute that thesis, and so it allows you to keep an open mind rather than marrying yourself to the narrative of the day, the news cycle, you name it. Oh, this stock has to do this. Or the precious metals have to do that, or copper has to do this based on, you know, economic reports. News narratives. You just use price. Keep it simple.

ian_1_08-01-2025_111641 13:17

Yep.

david_1_08-01-2025_101644 13:18

I think I'll highlight the supporter of this podcast right now, the Adaptive Select ETF listed on the New York Stock Exchange under ticker A DPV, which helps investors access to the most prevalent factors in markets, momentum and relative strength using proprietary identification methods. The adaptive Select ETF attempts to own the strongest 25 large cap stocks when the market is in an uptrend. And since not all market environments are the same, adaptive select seeks to prevent extended declines by moving short-term treasury bills and cash during long-term market Downtrends. Investors can find out more including how to invest in A DPV by visiting ad pv etf.com or calling 1-833-880-FIVE 200. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principle. Ad PV is distributed by Quasar Distributors, LLC, so we thank them for their support. Ian, anything else you want to touch base on? We haven't talked anything about crypto foreign equities.

ian_1_08-01-2025_111641 14:09

up. Bitcoin's held up. Well, I would say kind of in that gold. Category Bitcoin specifically. Some other cryptos. I know alt season seems a little delayed right now. We'll see.

david_1_08-01-2025_101644 14:22

So Bitcoin holding up we'll see what they do with Ripple here. Solana kind of broke down.

ian_1_08-01-2025_111641 14:29

What looked really good in July semiconductors, I think it's still very techy and very growthy.

david_1_08-01-2025_101644 14:35

Yes.

ian_1_08-01-2025_111641 14:36

The, and across all the market caps, you see that, especially the one that I would say mid cap growth versus mid cap value the one that kind of lacking. But now you're seeing midcap growth. There's a lot of talk about how AI is, you know, right. We're on the cusp of the next.com bubble. I have no idea if that's true, but those themes have not gone anywhere. Semiconductors, quantum computing mag seven, you know, all that techy stuff. Once we got done with the tariff scare in April, we went right back to that stuff. And that has continued to be your outperformers, even through July. I'm sure a lot of them will get hurt or get hit and underperform the market. You know, it's higher beta stuff, but that theme has not gone. I mean, look, I can say that theme hasn't gone anywhere for five years, almost.

david_1_08-01-2025_101644 15:31

Right. And I think if you were to, you know, look at things that might be a concern, it would be the false breakout in megs. It'd also be things like junk bonds

ian_1_08-01-2025_111641 15:42

Yeah.

david_1_08-01-2025_101644 15:43

kinda leaving a, an island here versus IEF or intermediate term quality bonds. But at the same time, you look at CCC credit spreads and they're not blowing out. You know, they're bouncing a little bit here, but they're still a sliding downward. So liquidity is fine. So yes, there's a mixed bag and you could look back and be like, see that, was that false breakout in mgs? That was the beginning. It could be. Not saying it's not but we haven't seen. Credit spreads blow out. You still have junk bonds versus these intermediate bonds in a range that goes back to 24. So we'll see. And foreign stocks continue to cool off in July. When you look at it, you know, you look at something like VU versus the s and p still in that downtrend that goes back for over 10 years. On a flat 200 day relative, 200 day moving average. So we'll see if foreign stocks get bit up here again in the second part of the year. We'll find out.

ian_1_08-01-2025_111641 16:41

Yeah, I'm kind of hoping Argentina comes back.

david_1_08-01-2025_101644 16:44

Yeah, that was a rough.

ian_1_08-01-2025_111641 16:45

Some have held up like the Taiwans and that have been kind of Vietnam strong lately on a relative basis. Well, we'll see.

david_1_08-01-2025_101644 16:56

Believe you know what I consider a current bellwether for the internationals, Greece holding up really well, holding up really well on a relative basis today. Continuing out Topor, perform international stocks.

ian_1_08-01-2025_111641 17:07

is probably one of those days. I mean, you do, should we stay here? Definitely one of those days where you wanna pr, you know, after the close peruse green?

david_1_08-01-2025_101644 17:19

Right where the relative strength was. So did you did you watch the game last night?

ian_1_08-01-2025_111641 17:24

I did watch the game. We watched the first half. I was so excited to have football back.

david_1_08-01-2025_101644 17:29

it any good? I only caught clips of the game. It was

ian_1_08-01-2025_111641 17:32

It was good.

david_1_08-01-2025_101644 17:32

Lions versus chargers, right.

ian_1_08-01-2025_111641 17:34

yeah I mean it was football man. I would take any level of football. Yeah, Trey Lance started for the Chargers. They were doing some Lions, lions fumbled the opening kickoff, which has just gotta be brutal. If you're trying to make the team and you open, you fumble the very opening kickoff to preseason. So I feel for that guy. Yeah, it was a good game. You asked me before we got on, and I did notice this, and I'm sure many of our listeners did too. I

david_1_08-01-2025_101644 18:09

do you, yeah.

ian_1_08-01-2025_111641 18:10

am I, is it fair to say that neither of us are fans of virtual first dance?

david_1_08-01-2025_101644 18:16

No virtual first downs. Well, even saying it out loud, like you virtually got a first down.

ian_1_08-01-2025_111641 18:22

I like having the line on the screen. Like, the yellow line that they put across the field,

david_1_08-01-2025_101644 18:28

Yeah, I like that. Yeah,

ian_1_08-01-2025_111641 18:30

but

david_1_08-01-2025_101644 18:30

but it's on the field.

ian_1_08-01-2025_111641 18:30

that we're not gonna have the chain crew measure, I don't know. This is

david_1_08-01-2025_101644 18:36

Well, and

ian_1_08-01-2025_111641 18:37

hey, everything, like they say, everything is computer.

david_1_08-01-2025_101644 18:40

Well, I, yeah, I get it. But like the,

ian_1_08-01-2025_111641 18:41

meme going around that right now. Right. Everything is computer. We're gonna have virtual strike zones, I bet. These

david_1_08-01-2025_101644 18:49

well,

ian_1_08-01-2025_111641 18:49

don't stop being terrible in the Major League baseball.

david_1_08-01-2025_101644 18:53

yeah, and I think.

ian_1_08-01-2025_111641 18:54

They'll just have

david_1_08-01-2025_101644 18:54

I just think the whole field being virtual though, like they went to a field that was virtual, like the game was played at the Chargers, but the field they show was the lions. So like, how are you supposed to know whether that's real? I just think it back, you know, even the phrase like, Hey, you virtually made it to the bathroom. What? No, I didn't make it. Like, I just feel like it's it's too it feels like it could be manipulated pretty easy too.

ian_1_08-01-2025_111641 19:18

Yeah.

david_1_08-01-2025_101644 19:19

Like, oh, here's an image. They got the first talent, or here's an image. They didn't get it. I just,

ian_1_08-01-2025_111641 19:23

yeah, with the guy and the

david_1_08-01-2025_101644 19:25

and why did

ian_1_08-01-2025_111641 19:25

measured it with, we measured it with ai. We're sure. We're sure we got the right call.

david_1_08-01-2025_101644 19:31

one, why does the whole thing have to be virtual? Meaning like the image and everything. Why can't they just put the line like they do before on the field? A sensor and they got it. I don't know. Feels a little,

ian_1_08-01-2025_111641 19:45

sensor in the ball

david_1_08-01-2025_101644 19:47

no, I think they,

ian_1_08-01-2025_111641 19:48

do that in soccer, right?

david_1_08-01-2025_101644 19:50

yeah, I think they should have, I think they should have a sensor in the ball and we don't have to throw take time to throw an image up on the screen either. Got it or you didn't. Pretty easy, I don't know. Seems odd. I'm not a fan currently. I could be convinced, you know, maybe this is slow step towards some of those things and'cause I would miss I would,

ian_1_08-01-2025_111641 20:08

the target marketing, maybe we're getting pushed out

david_1_08-01-2025_101644 20:11

yeah. Maybe we're not who they're appealing to.

ian_1_08-01-2025_111641 20:13

viewers. don't want middle aged men anymore.

david_1_08-01-2025_101644 20:16

No.'cause I may, I like umpires still, even though they stink at their calls. At least they got challenges. It brings drama to the game. But if you want.

ian_1_08-01-2025_111641 20:25

gotta be a human, I don't know. Right. I think it's just the whole idea that we're losing the human element to a lot of sports.

david_1_08-01-2025_101644 20:33

Yeah, it's kind of crazy. So,

ian_1_08-01-2025_111641 20:34

the, at least the officiating part of sports.

david_1_08-01-2025_101644 20:37

currently not a fan of virtual first ounce. Maybe. Maybe I'll, you know,'cause I'll be honest, I was one of those guys. I wasn't initially a fan of the pitch clock, but now I'm a huge fan.

ian_1_08-01-2025_111641 20:47

You are

david_1_08-01-2025_101644 20:48

Yeah.

ian_1_08-01-2025_111641 20:48

Yeah.

david_1_08-01-2025_101644 20:49

Yes. I love that these, the baseball games aren't going three hours anymore. I think that's great. Four hours sometimes.

ian_1_08-01-2025_111641 20:57

Yeah.

david_1_08-01-2025_101644 20:58

So maybe I'll come around, maybe. Maybe I'll keep an open mind, change my mind, you know, as the data comes in, maybe I'll change. I don't. Well, I appreciate you, you doing this. I know there was a week off last week from the podcast. We appreciate everybody listening. Anything else you wanna cover, Ian before we wrap this one up?

ian_1_08-01-2025_111641 21:14

No, just that. Yeah. A lot of these charts are gonna look gross. I mean, a lot of these charts that I've been through this morning, we've given back of gains in the last two or three sessions and that happens. But to Dave's point, we got a pretty so far we've gotten a pretty immediate and dramatic response from this, which, yes, I would much rather see people get immediately spooked. So we can kind of just rip the bandaid off than people, you know, try to call the bluff of the market and say, no I think you're going higher, because that's when you really do typically. Start going

david_1_08-01-2025_101644 21:52

Well, I think the market is great. At making fools out of the most. And what I find fascinating about this year is, right, we had that correction in March and April, right? So you had a negative, you had a pretty negative start to the year. We get back into positive territory and so maybe people were out and they threw the towel in right in here, and now we're gonna get two months of sideways to down. I mean, that's a really frustrating year for investors. If you were sitting there. Negative year to date going into April, and you finally get back to positive and then you get a move that's three to 5% sideways or down that frustrates investors like crazy and

ian_1_08-01-2025_111641 22:35

if it's stuff that hasn't been right. I mean,

david_1_08-01-2025_101644 22:37

right.

ian_1_08-01-2025_111641 22:38

heard about, we haven't heard about gold in a coup a month or so. Everyone's off the gold train. Everything said, yeah. Do we rotate back into that? Now are we gonna rotate into small caps? I don't know that has yet to be seen. I feel like that's always yet to be seen.

david_1_08-01-2025_101644 22:53

Right.

ian_1_08-01-2025_111641 22:54

banks don't really, banks do. Some banks look great. Most banks kind of blah. Biotech's still pretty blah. Golly, and I thought we were gonna get the, I know Kevin really had his Zion industrials, which were close to getting a relative breakout last week, and they've kind of rolled over a little bit.

david_1_08-01-2025_101644 23:18

And I think that's a lot of that has to do with large cap dominance. When I went through that workbook yesterday. There's a lot of things underneath the surface in XLI, in, in industrial stocks that look pretty dug on. Good. They're not large cap weighted, you know, they're not large cap stocks, but there's a lot of, I'll just put it this way, if you had an industrial sector mandate and you could only pick industrial stocks, there's plenty to pick from. Now the large ones which are pulling the. XLI down, not so much. And I know on a relevant basis, large cap industrials versus s and p kind of a hot mess. But man, there's things underneath the surface there worth paying attention to. I'll say that.

ian_1_08-01-2025_111641 23:55

Okay.

david_1_08-01-2025_101644 23:56

And that's not risk off. So we'll see. I mean, you know, we have this move yesterday and today. Let's not forget that markets don't move in a straight line. We've had a great move off the April lows. Got back into positive territory for the indices. Something like s and p 500. Wouldn't it frustrate people if we were sideways to down August and September? And then set ourselves up for get yourself sober October and have a great finish to the year. We'll see

ian_1_08-01-2025_111641 24:23

Oh, I love it.

david_1_08-01-2025_101644 24:24

right? The,

ian_1_08-01-2025_111641 24:25

of big, of strong Q fours. Yeah,

david_1_08-01-2025_101644 24:27

yep.

ian_1_08-01-2025_111641 24:28

I would definitely take another strong Q4. I feel like we've gotten a lot of strong Q fours. I mean, almost every year that I've been at client First 2019 we did 2020. We did. 2021. Not really, not that I remember. 2022.

david_1_08-01-2025_101644 24:47

Yep. 2024. Yep. So, and that it matches, right? Because typically November through April are the strongest six months outta the year, and that kind of starts really in mid-October. So do we correct now through mid-October and then have a strong finish to the year? That would be extremely frustrating from a big picture perspective on how this year has unfolded for the average investor. And that's what, or do they frustrate people? It's good. Nothing wrong with that.

ian_1_08-01-2025_111641 25:11

every, yeah, I mean every 20 19, 20 20, 20 20. Yeah, because 2020, oh no, I take that back. 2020 was sideways. That now we did get kind of a move. Okay. Like mid-November.

david_1_08-01-2025_101644 25:27

Yeah, I was gonna say I, November we really took off there.

ian_1_08-01-2025_111641 25:30

I remember that.'cause I remember telling clients, if we get outta this range, we're gonna be pretty insanely aggressive. I was there in October

david_1_08-01-2025_101644 25:40

Right.

ian_1_08-01-2025_111641 25:41

for lunch and learn 2021. I mean, yeah, you had Octo, I mean you had September weakness and then Bottomed ripped through pretty much the end of the year, 2022 was a bear market, and you bottomed early to mid

david_1_08-01-2025_101644 26:00

like that matches seasonally. I mean, the exception would be what happened in 2018, but

ian_1_08-01-2025_111641 26:05

Well, that's supposed to be the be right. That's how you get your six bullish months of the year. That's

david_1_08-01-2025_101644 26:10

Yep.

ian_1_08-01-2025_111641 26:10

that period. Be historically bullish

david_1_08-01-2025_101644 26:12

yep.

ian_1_08-01-2025_111641 26:13

or else the data wouldn't say that.

david_1_08-01-2025_101644 26:15

So, I mean, seasonally speaking, we could be soft to down the remainder of August in September and then see what October, November, December brings. Nothing wrong with low frustration from the market.'cause after all, we're not in it for entertainment. We're in it to protect our purchasing power. And so we'll see. Gotta wait for price to confirm or deny the thesis that we're in an uptrend. And so far we remain in an uptrend even after a day like today. And we will see what we're like in a week. So I appreciate everybody listening. Give us a high ranking on your platform or choice. Make sure you share it with your friends. That means a lot to us. Thanks for being on here again, Ian. We'll be back next week.

ian_1_08-01-2025_111641 26:53

Have a great weekend

david_1_08-01-2025_101644 26:54

I.