The Weekly Trend
The Weekly Trend
Episode 264: You Get What You Get
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In this week’s episode, David and Ian discuss the move in small caps this week and the 80% upside day, Dow Jones trying to move to all-time highs, international areas that are still showing strength, crypto participation and divergence, and how important it is to simply participate in the current trend rather than trying to time market tops and bottoms.
Welcome back to the Weekly Treading podcast. Today is Friday, August 15th, 2025 s and P 500, currently sitting at 64 53. I am David Darling. I'm here with Weatherman Ian McMillan. You still got rain by you?
ian_1_08-15-2025_115129Hopefully this weekend should be good.
david_1_08-15-2025_105128The kids out.
ian_1_08-15-2025_115129Rain for two weeks.
david_1_08-15-2025_105128Gotta get the kids outside.
ian_1_08-15-2025_115129Gotta get the kids outside. Need some time in the sun. Time in the pool. I'm ready.
david_1_08-15-2025_105128I
ian_1_08-15-2025_115129Plus, plus summer's dwindling down here. School starts next week, so we gotta maximize the final days.
david_1_08-15-2025_105128That's right. Summers are great, but I think kids do well with school structure. Not gonna lie.
ian_1_08-15-2025_115129They do. I'm ready. It's been an awesome summer. First summer we have had child home. Obviously our youngest is still in daycare year round. Been super fun, but yes, I am. A little ready for him to get back, and I think he is too. I think he's ready to get back and see friends and get involved in the extracurriculars and all that good stuff.
david_1_08-15-2025_105128Yeah, I believe it. I believe it. Same with my kids. Two oldest are off to college. Then we got two high schoolers, no more grade schoolers for me.
ian_1_08-15-2025_115129That officially makes you old, I think. I think that's one of the rules.
david_1_08-15-2025_105128no. I only have to agree to that and I don't.
ian_1_08-15-2025_115129No, I'm teasing.
david_1_08-15-2025_105128So, stocks, what do we see out there? What, what can we update our listeners from last week to this week regarding stocks, bonds, commodities, crypto.
ian_1_08-15-2025_115129I mean, a positive, it's gonna be a positive leak as far as major indices. Well, yeah. S and p's up. Russell had a nice week, right? Russell up had the big what was that Tuesday? Is that Tuesday had the big gap and run.
david_1_08-15-2025_105128yeah. Tuesday
ian_1_08-15-2025_115129Yeah.
david_1_08-15-2025_105128first 80% upside day since May 27th.
ian_1_08-15-2025_115129Yeah. So Russell, you know, as much as a hard time as we give him credit where credit is due. Did have the best week. Did make it out of its consolidation. Big move on Tuesday. Now sitting back where we were in February, early February. So has made some ground up. Looks good. I guess the dao, I guess the DAO is up for the week.
david_1_08-15-2025_105128Well, and the Dow is though, you know, along with small caps hadn't, hadn't made new all time highs. But here we are.
ian_1_08-15-2025_115129Yeah, look at Dow.
david_1_08-15-2025_105128couple hours from closing. We might get ourselves a new yeah, new week,
ian_1_08-15-2025_115129How about that?
david_1_08-15-2025_105128weekly, weekly closing high. That could be a, a big deal.
ian_1_08-15-2025_115129Yeah, so.
david_1_08-15-2025_105128that you, not that you have to be in the Dow, but I mean, it's a highly correlated index to the other ones.
ian_1_08-15-2025_115129So we've got, you know, dial breaking to new highs, Russell's the outperformer on the week. Stocks have seen well again. Okay, si, you know, measuring to see is what, we've been sideways for three days now, since Tuesday.
david_1_08-15-2025_105128Mm-hmm.
ian_1_08-15-2025_115129S, p, s and P also breaking to above its July highs.
david_1_08-15-2025_105128Yep.
ian_1_08-15-2025_115129I think you mentioned that. So it's all healthy, but boy, they are antsy out there. Hmm, I get it. Individual stocks, definitely. I've been hit today, kind of another one today, one of those days. I would say a lot of the really strong stuff, momentum type stuff has gotten hit. On the flip side of that, I think I saw Frank Cap say we had two 80% upside days this week.
david_1_08-15-2025_105128Yeah, the first one. Now, the data I'm looking at for, you know, and I think he was using s and p
ian_1_08-15-2025_115129Okay.
david_1_08-15-2025_105128what I'm using is NYSE. So using NYSE, we had an 80% upside day on Tuesday. But I think if you're using s and p like he was, Tuesday and Wednesday to 80% upside days, not
ian_1_08-15-2025_115129And isn't that. Isn't that fascinating? Because I can, I do, I buy the breadth diver, I mean, right. The data is The data. There have been fewer stocks, you know, making new highs and staying above certain moving averages. As the indecision moved higher tire. I do wonder if this is a restart to breath.
david_1_08-15-2025_105128Yeah. Could be. I mean, it would match seeing what small. Caps have done.
ian_1_08-15-2025_115129Mm-hmm.
david_1_08-15-2025_105128And I know people get all weird about you can't just blanketly say small caps, you know, our breath measurement, but in a, in a way, you know, if you're seeing a broadening out of participation to the upside from 2000 small cap stocks, and
ian_1_08-15-2025_115129Well, micro
david_1_08-15-2025_105128say,
ian_1_08-15-2025_115129caps got back to all time highs.
david_1_08-15-2025_105128well, I
ian_1_08-15-2025_115129they've since kind of. Stalled out there. I take that back. Not all time highs.
david_1_08-15-2025_105128I would say like four year highs.
ian_1_08-15-2025_115129Yeah. I take that back, back to the underside of, I mean, it's a pretty big level. I mean, it's the underside of this 2021 range, which is yeah, probably not gonna slice through that easily. That's a big one, especially given the move we have had into that range. See, I guess could happen.
david_1_08-15-2025_105128But your point is made. I mean, if you get the j Jones making new highs, if s and p made new highs you know, is, is NASDAQ holding its high versus the s and p. It's trying, and then you see what's happening in Europe,
ian_1_08-15-2025_115129Yeah.
david_1_08-15-2025_105128financials, I mean, Germany is still strong.
ian_1_08-15-2025_115129I feel like Europe might be ready to make a second move here.
david_1_08-15-2025_105128Yep.
ian_1_08-15-2025_115129We talked last week about the areas that it held up well. And yeah, I would definitely, you mentioned financials. I would definitely put them in that category. We mentioned some of the individual country ETFs that it held up well
david_1_08-15-2025_105128Yeah.
ian_1_08-15-2025_115129and you.
david_1_08-15-2025_105128Spain, Austria. Yeah. I mean, I don't know how bearish you can get. If the Dow goes out to new all time highs, and you have things like European financials doing well, I mean even Japan new all time highs, China. I know we've talked about China internally this week.
ian_1_08-15-2025_115129Japan and Japan. Yeah. Look at that. And not to mention, right, we talked about. Vietnam and Singapore, or I think it was Singapore, South Korea Malaysia. I think Malaysia is doing, I cannot believe we gave a Malaysia ETF, but we don't have trucking. But I digress. Yeah, it's, if I had to look at a chart, I mean, it does, or, I mean, I do, I do look at charts and it, it does feel like Europe had their big move, Q1, Q2 kind of set back a little bit and now I mean they were fine on an absolute basis, but definitely under performed on. A relative basis and now, and I should say not your, I mean, foreign developed is probably a better, right, because you just mentioned Japan. But we'll see.
david_1_08-15-2025_105128We will,
ian_1_08-15-2025_115129What about domestically?
david_1_08-15-2025_105128I mean, domestic, I, you know, it's the, the leaders continue to lead. You know, you look at year to date and your leaders, year to date our communication services, industrials, tech, semiconductors, financials, not necessarily,
ian_1_08-15-2025_115129gosh, but does it, I mean, you say industrials, indu. So industrials are outperforming, I mean, they are. Look at that. But it does, it doesn't, doesn't feel like it.
david_1_08-15-2025_105128Well, it's because you snapped the chocolate, right? It's, it goes
ian_1_08-15-2025_115129Yeah.
david_1_08-15-2025_105128whole like January 1st thing,
ian_1_08-15-2025_115129Yeah,
david_1_08-15-2025_105128at XLI.
ian_1_08-15-2025_115129it really does. Bottom, like relative like mid-December. Yeah.
david_1_08-15-2025_105128Yeah. So it. It's definitely not something that you can sit there and say, oh, that's clear as day that industrials is gonna be a relative outperformer. It just happens to be where January 1st ended up for that particular sector.
ian_1_08-15-2025_115129And then XLFI know we talked about, speaking of financials, we talked about. Okay, so Russell kind of has made a move, but regional banks didn't really do anything, like regional banks have not gotten to new multi-month highs. Biotech, on the other hand, has, depending on what biotech fund you wanna look at. Just interesting. I really thought banks would've participated more regional banks that is participated more in this big move for, I mean, they have moved outperformed a little bit over the last week. Overall relative chart is tough. Hmm.
david_1_08-15-2025_105128I agreed. It's, you know, some, some things are more clear on a chart than others when you use a January 1st date. And we're, you know, I think it's, I think it's interesting that the VIX is near the lows of the year. We're entering a seasonally weak period, you know, this middle August, into the middle October, so this two month period. Do we see seasonality play out and we have weakness in chop? do we have another scenario? Where are we gonna get a melt up that locks people out? Because we were just a week away from talking about how speculators had built some pretty large net short positions,
ian_1_08-15-2025_115129Yeah, in small caps, right.
david_1_08-15-2025_105128small caps.
ian_1_08-15-2025_115129Biotech
david_1_08-15-2025_105128biotech. Yeah. Like, so I, you know, we'll see where we end up by the, by the end of October. But
ian_1_08-15-2025_115129could get melting,
david_1_08-15-2025_105128could, could be a melty and then that would put people in a really tough emotional spot.'cause if you raise a bunch of cash and hedge big time coming into August and that starts to move against you.
ian_1_08-15-2025_115129But then breath stays bad, right? Then you gotta, I mean, I could see breadth not necessarily improving a ton and markets melting up. Then you're kind of back into like the mega cap theme. Pro, I assume could unfold a lot of ways, but.
david_1_08-15-2025_105128Yeah, correct.
ian_1_08-15-2025_115129I would love for participation to pick up. You know, we still got Apple. That's been an underperformer this whole time that we talked about last week. That is now maybe wanting to emerge as an outperformer again. We'll see.
david_1_08-15-2025_105128And we got, we still have CCC credit spreads cooling off. So that's indicative of, you know, there's not a lot of credit, stress, what do we, I mean,
ian_1_08-15-2025_115129Well, and even take a day like yesterday where, what was the big, what was the big news thing that came out yesterday? PPI, and so got everyone in a tizzy. Everyone in a tizzy market kind of had its chance, especially early on to really start. A, you know, a really a real sell off, which I feel like everyone's been, you know, for right or wrong, we're just waiting for, I would say wrong. I mean, just like wait around and hope and predict that you know, it's kind of that like, well, it's a, well, markets are due. Like, that's, God, it's one of the worst things, one of the worst attitudes you can have. When it comes to market, markets are due for this, markets are due for that. I, ah no markets aren't due for anything.
david_1_08-15-2025_105128well I think you brought up a really good point. I think it was this week or last week, just how there will be one last new all time high.
ian_1_08-15-2025_115129Yeah.
david_1_08-15-2025_105128Not every new, all time high is the top.
ian_1_08-15-2025_115129Well, and what do we tell? I mean, I tell clients all the time. Whether it's a prospect a new, like a new planning client you know, we walk through the same slides with everyone and there's a very particular slide. It's got about 25 years of s and p data on it, and we talk about like, here's where you would be invested, here's where you're gonna be in cash. I, I feel like we're pretty upfront. I know I'm pretty upfront when I, when I meet with new clients, whenever that last new high comes, and we won't know that for weeks or months till after the fact, but we will be able to look back and say whenever that new high did come, like you are likely pretty aggressively invested
david_1_08-15-2025_105128Right.
ian_1_08-15-2025_115129because that's how trend following works.
david_1_08-15-2025_105128Correct. Yeah. It's you,
ian_1_08-15-2025_115129And so we can sit back at all these new, all the new highs made this year. And I can say the same thing. You've been aggressively invested.
david_1_08-15-2025_105128I think it's safe to say that there's more damage done by people trying to time absolute top. Actually allowing the trend to change and then remove yourself from it,
ian_1_08-15-2025_115129Yeah. And I don't want markets to roll over any. More than the next guy would. I mean, no one wants to see number go down, right? But that is a reality. And you just adapt for it. There are definitely days of under performance outperformance. I think at this point in my career, it's. All the, I mean, it's just one big, long, never ending game kind of. And I love that. I think I, I think I used to really get caught up on like the day to day stuff. But just being in the trend, be the ball, right? As you like to say, be the ball, be the trend,
david_1_08-15-2025_105128Yep. Participate in
ian_1_08-15-2025_115129participate.
david_1_08-15-2025_105128there will be a downtrend. There will be another one. I don't know when. I wish I could tell people
ian_1_08-15-2025_115129And don't forget, we just had one. I think that's one of the most ironic things about society and the five second news cycle we're on, is that people talk about going back to where do we just had a shit three months ago, four months ago?
david_1_08-15-2025_105128Yeah,
ian_1_08-15-2025_115129or people talk about we're due for it. We just had a nine month bear market draw down three years ago.
david_1_08-15-2025_105128that's absolutely true. Well, and like okay, equal weighted Russell 1005% return since November of 2021. Too far, too fast.
ian_1_08-15-2025_115129Yeah, it's
david_1_08-15-2025_105128we can, we can get into topics about, you know, all the make seven or too
ian_1_08-15-2025_115129max seven. Yeah,
david_1_08-15-2025_105128you know, the top 50 stocks are too large, maybe.
ian_1_08-15-2025_115129maybe. I mean, I don't, that's not a reason for me to, like, what am I gonna tell my wife? We didn't. Oh, we're not gonna retire on time because the Max seven spooked me.
david_1_08-15-2025_105128Yeah,
ian_1_08-15-2025_115129I'm not, I'm not, I'll tell you that I'm not having that conversation at 65. Like it's just participate.
david_1_08-15-2025_105128Yep. Participate when it
ian_1_08-15-2025_115129Million reasons. There's a million reasons to not every day, million reasons to not own stocks. You can go on Twitter and find half of them if you wanna look.
david_1_08-15-2025_105128Mm-hmm.
ian_1_08-15-2025_115129You can open, turn on CNB, see em, find another half. You know, the other half. It's, I mean, my whole life, right? Your whole career. Been the same way. My whole career been the same way. Always reasons to not own stocks, always a reason to be spooked out. What could happen.
david_1_08-15-2025_105128Yeah, there, there's always, there's always a wall of worry and sometimes that wall is stacked more than others. But man, just use price and speaking of price, probably should highlight the support of this podcast, the Adaptive Select ETF, listed on the New York Stock Exchange. Under tricker A DPV, helps investors access to the most prevalent factors in markets will momentum and relative strength. Through proprietary identification methods, the Adaptive Select ETF attempts to own the strongest 25 large cap stocks when the market is in an uptrend. And since not all market environments are the same, adaptive select seeks to prevent extended declines by moving to short term treasury bills and cash long-term market Downtrends investors can find out more including how to invest in A DPV by visiting pv etf.com calling 1-833-880-FIVE 200. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principle. Ad PV is distributed by Quasar Distributors, LLC. Any anything else you wanna cover equity based before I pivot us to talk
ian_1_08-15-2025_115129Yeah.
david_1_08-15-2025_105128bonds or commodities?
ian_1_08-15-2025_115129No more ranting on equities from me. Yeah. Let's let's talk about our crypto pals.
david_1_08-15-2025_105128Yeah, I, I. I think this weekend will be interesting. And I don't mean that from some type of fundamental statement, it's just you look at something like Bitcoin, which tried to break out to New High, and now it's back below the prior high with an RSI divergence. And you kind of see the same thing out of Ethereum.
ian_1_08-15-2025_115129Yeah.
david_1_08-15-2025_105128You know, you've got Ethereum tried to break out, now that's above, its 2021 high. The Bitcoin was more, more recent high. So we'll see, you know,'cause the, the sentiment out there is pretty bullish on crypto and we're supposed to go into alt season here and it's gonna be
ian_1_08-15-2025_115129Very hype. Yeah. Well, and so, Pratty brought up a good point on Twitter or former in turn, fratty, go drop him a hello in his dms if uh, you have the time. He is off to a great start in his young career he brought up the, just like the MSTR underperforming I,
david_1_08-15-2025_105128Yeah.
ian_1_08-15-2025_115129and that's, I mean, right. That's your, that's your Bitcoin proxy, your higher beta Bitcoin proxy. Not performing. I would say those, those funds in general. Your DAPs, your B oks, your what's the crypt one? Isn't there like a crypt,
david_1_08-15-2025_105128Are you talking
ian_1_08-15-2025_115129ETFs.
david_1_08-15-2025_105128Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah.
ian_1_08-15-2025_115129CRPT. Yeah. See, like none of those at all have participated in this kind of little la like most recent rally in Bitcoin that we've seen over the last two-ish weeks. Probably a clue there was coin. It's a big failed breakout out of its base at the like 3 45, 3 50 area, somewhere up in there. So the envy, crypto linked stocks definitely diverging. Now you're kind of seeing the crypto failures fail breakout type moves.
david_1_08-15-2025_105128All those, all those stocks that you're talking about are, I believe that the term is like they're a, you know, an Ethereum trust or a Bitcoin trust, meaning like they're just gonna hold, hold Bitcoin, hold Ethereum.
ian_1_08-15-2025_115129Mm-hmm.
david_1_08-15-2025_105128So it's a newer terminology that I've heard that the crypto communities embracing is this of these. And if those are underperforming, I think that's a fair, you know, assessment to look at. You know, are we gonna, that gonna be crypto theory going forward? You know, we have Dow theory when there's divergences. Is, is this a new theory developing
ian_1_08-15-2025_115129Well, kinda like the gold miners and gold.
david_1_08-15-2025_105128Yeah, yeah, exactly.
ian_1_08-15-2025_115129I think it's super valid. I, right. I mean the high beta stuff, the proxy stuff tends to kind of peter off beforehand and I would say on vice versa, when New ra, new Uptrends are getting ready to start, your MSTR is probably gonna move a little bit before Bitcoin does.
david_1_08-15-2025_105128Yeah, I think it's a fair analysis for sure.
ian_1_08-15-2025_115129I don't want the uptrend to end. I don't wanna have to go buy European stocks, but here we are. Might have to.
david_1_08-15-2025_105128Yeah, and that, and that's okay. I mean, that's why we use relative charts and relative strength is identifying where that strength is and not necessarily a bad thing when you see outta these other, other areas. I mean, it's been over a decade of. S and p dominance, but I don't have a problem with this differentiation. In some ways, it'd make our jobs easier. So crypto, on the, on the watch. On the watch list, I know everybody wants to talk about rates. Interesting to see,
ian_1_08-15-2025_115129Yeah. What are you doing in rates?
david_1_08-15-2025_105128at treasuries using TLT, they're actually. Negative on the week.
ian_1_08-15-2025_115129Yeah, rates are up.
david_1_08-15-2025_105128You know, I think, you know, I, in some ways the Fed's hands are tied, but that's not for me to determine. But I know the bond market is gonna help them make that decision.
ian_1_08-15-2025_115129Yes, it will. Yeah. Rates, I mean, right. That's been the whole story. I actually, for the first time. I feel like in months, maybe a few years, to not put a 30 year treasury chart in the client letter this month which it's been a long time since. I have not given clients that update. I'll probably have one here in September, but I mean, the story's the same. Like I, if anything, I think that this consolidation over the last. Let's call it four months and like a 30 year treasury yield gives even more backing that rates might, like rates, at least the long-term rates going higher. The more you consolidate under the, you know, kind of a breakout period, I don't see, you know, it's the same as if it is any other asset. I would assume, and that again, I, we, it's been the story on this podcast. It's been the story for clients. It seems like rates are going to go higher. The 40 year higher rate cycle thesis remains intact until it doesn't. I'm gonna write into a 200 day, I know certain people in the government want lower rates. I mean, I just bought a house I would like to refinance here. That'd be pretty sweet, but I don't know. Now they say that like the two years better for tracking mortgages. Have I? Is that, have you heard that
david_1_08-15-2025_105128O
ian_1_08-15-2025_115129a two year treasury is better for tracking like what mortgages are gonna do?
david_1_08-15-2025_105128maybe, I mean, I know, I know L-I-B-O-R used to be a, a thing to track, but ever since they got caught
ian_1_08-15-2025_115129Yeah, I think I caught fixing that.
david_1_08-15-2025_105128Yeah, not so much anymore. Could see that being the case. I could see that being a, a good proxy.
ian_1_08-15-2025_115129And those have been down. I mean, those continue to kind of dwindle down. I mean, those have been down since last spring. Yeah, that was Bri. That was British dudes fixing the L-I-B-O-R thing, right?
david_1_08-15-2025_105128Mm-hmm.
ian_1_08-15-2025_115129Well, I guess it is L-I-B-O-R. The L and Lib OS for London, right?
david_1_08-15-2025_105128Yep.
ian_1_08-15-2025_115129Yeah. So I guess that makes sense, but I.
david_1_08-15-2025_105128So it's interesting. I mean, and I, I get why a government like the US would want rates to be lower because they're refinancing a ton of debt coming up. I get it. But the bond market's gonna set that price. I mean, they're gonna set that rate.
ian_1_08-15-2025_115129They are, you can't, you can't outmaneuver tens of trillions of dollars,
david_1_08-15-2025_105128Yeah, it's the largest asset class out there.
ian_1_08-15-2025_115129maybe hundreds of trillions. I have no idea. Okay. What about. Things that are going terribly like the Beyond Meat bankruptcy. Well, not terribly for people like me, red Meat Eaters and my family.
david_1_08-15-2025_105128Right. Well, who,
ian_1_08-15-2025_115129Ugh,
david_1_08-15-2025_105128knew that fake fake meat do well?
ian_1_08-15-2025_115129shocked, shocked that Americans rejected your thesis of lab grown meat.
david_1_08-15-2025_105128So bizarre.
ian_1_08-15-2025_115129That was so weird. And man, they spent years pushing that.
david_1_08-15-2025_105128They did. And now bankrupt. And the chart didn't lie. I mean, it wasn't like.
ian_1_08-15-2025_115129No.
david_1_08-15-2025_105128This happened overnight.
ian_1_08-15-2025_115129Yeah. This was a slow and steady. Right. And it was your classic, I'm not saying they're all like this, but it was your classic Well, we're gonna, IP it to the public. It goes from at IPOs at 45, runs up to 2 35, 2 40. Been in a downtrend for over, I mean, it's been in a downtrend since
david_1_08-15-2025_1051282021.
ian_1_08-15-2025_115129Yeah.
david_1_08-15-2025_105128Yeah. You go from IPO to bankrupt in five years for fake meat. knew?
ian_1_08-15-2025_115129Color me shocked Dave,
david_1_08-15-2025_105128maybe. Maybe the same thing will happen for Moderna.
ian_1_08-15-2025_115129we can only pray.
david_1_08-15-2025_105128'cause that's been in the downtrend since 2021.
ian_1_08-15-2025_115129Speaking of healthcare. Are you buying UNH?
david_1_08-15-2025_105128Oh,
ian_1_08-15-2025_115129I mean, buffet bought it.
david_1_08-15-2025_105128Yeah. That's
ian_1_08-15-2025_115129Michael Brew's in and you know, he was really smart. In oh eight, they made a movie about him.
david_1_08-15-2025_105128Yeah,
ian_1_08-15-2025_115129So
david_1_08-15-2025_105128that's
ian_1_08-15-2025_115129you are you gonna not parti, you're not gonna jump on that trade with the guy. They made a movie about.
david_1_08-15-2025_105128I think, I think you could get a, a strong counter trend move here,
ian_1_08-15-2025_115129Yeah.
david_1_08-15-2025_105128some serious damage has been done and may just be the opening. The the, the 2025 might just be the opening SVO for that particular stock.
ian_1_08-15-2025_115129Yeah. I think I right. It's, we were talking about it beforehand, before we hopped on. It's the largest healthcare provider managed healthcare. Whatever label you wanna get at the largest or one of the largest in the world. I don't, I, I don't think anyone in this industry that's worth paying attention to thinks that this was gonna go from$600 to$0 overnight or even in a year or two. But I, I'm definitely willing to go on record as someone who's not buying the long term United Health Group, that this was some great entry point over the last few weeks, or even today with Buffet getting in and Burry and David Teer could be a great trade even for a few quarters even. I mean, this could trade well for a year. You could get, I don't even know if we get back over our 200 day moving average. I mean, I'm sure at some point we'll, but yeah, I'm with you. I think this is probably a great reset over the next nine to 12 months. If you are gonna short this stock. I think it goes lower. Maybe I'm just a biased anti healthcare. Not that I don't go to a doctor, but. Same, I mean, all of it, right? This, the,
david_1_08-15-2025_105128would
ian_1_08-15-2025_115129the Pfizer stuff? Yeah.
david_1_08-15-2025_105128the, I mean, the way I would say it is, I, I don't think it's a short right now.
ian_1_08-15-2025_115129No.
david_1_08-15-2025_105128I mean, I, I understand why people can get in and have some risk management. They better have a strong risk management on this one. But yeah, you could have a reversion the mean of 40%. Higher and it doesn't fix anything, like the damage has been done. And so if you were short, you might not want to be anymore. There would probably be another, probably be another opportunity.
ian_1_08-15-2025_115129You could just buy Gilead. That's a pretty sweet looking chart.
david_1_08-15-2025_105128Yeah. like it?
ian_1_08-15-2025_115129I like it. It's a great, well, I mean the monthly's pretty sweet short term. You could probably, yeah, I mean, short term. Just got a breakout on Tuesday. Nope, not Tuesday last. Probably on earnings or something last Friday. I think it's a beautiful chart, but yeah, you can, I guess by the, by the United Health.
david_1_08-15-2025_105128Eli Lilly broke down last week trying to recover this week. You know, maybe that's a false breakdown. Healthcare overall, abysmal on a relative basis, but, but holding up from a really big picture perspective. Like it's not at new all time highs on a absolute basis. It's below a 200 day, but it's still sitting in the middle of the range that goes back to the beginning of 2021. We will
ian_1_08-15-2025_115129mind if it broke down.
david_1_08-15-2025_105128Yeah. Wouldn't bother me. Don't
ian_1_08-15-2025_115129I mean, I don't want people to lose their jobs. I just wanna see the stocks crater,
david_1_08-15-2025_105128Yep.
ian_1_08-15-2025_115129which probably,
david_1_08-15-2025_105128anything else you wanna highlight before we sign off here?
ian_1_08-15-2025_115129So still in our seasonally week period, I don't think anything about that has changed. Now have we gotten indices to roll over yet? No. Maybe that's a, maybe that's a clue. Right, right. We talked about yesterday. Yesterday was a great chance. Everyone freaked out. Mark's finished green, and then you, then you go back to the melt up theme theory, which isn't even, I don't know if it's a theory at this point, because didn't you say last week on the podcast, we gaped up like 19 outta 20 sessions.
david_1_08-15-2025_105128Yeah. And that, that's the other interesting kind of phenomenon is I, I, in some ways, the price volatility has been decent the last month compared to what the VIX has done.
ian_1_08-15-2025_115129Yeah.
david_1_08-15-2025_105128Not necessarily matching up there,
ian_1_08-15-2025_115129Yeah. Vix doesn't seem to be buying it yet.
david_1_08-15-2025_105128right? So as always, we'll see. And you know, you've got, you still have your risk management lines in the sand. You know, something like the s and p, you'd want it to hold. Its July highs. You want it to hold, its February highs. You want it to hold it 200 day. Same with nasdaq. I mean, it'd be great to see small caps really start to outperform here and finally break to, you know, a new high because it's at the same, it's a 0% return for small caps since February, 2021. And we'll see what, we'll see what some of these crypto names doing. I think that's gonna be telling in the next week or two here as well, that if they're not able to hold their highs, are we gonna just get a consolidation near the highs or.
ian_1_08-15-2025_115129Yeah.
david_1_08-15-2025_105128Was, did that, was there some peak sentiment going on there, on what the government was gonna do, what it wasn't gonna do with crypto? Got a little overextended. We'll see.
ian_1_08-15-2025_115129Yeah, maybe I, you know, I would love for it to be a consolidation and we say, Hey, see you in November. Hey, see you early November, man.
david_1_08-15-2025_105128Mm-hmm.
ian_1_08-15-2025_115129You hang out for a couple months. I'm gonna go participate in some other things. I'll absolutely be back. Just gimme a ring.
david_1_08-15-2025_105128That's right.
ian_1_08-15-2025_115129When you're ready to party, you don't even have to gimme a ring. I'll see it on the chart.
david_1_08-15-2025_105128That's right. When you see the party happening, you can always join in and there's always gonna, I mean, that's what I love about markets is there's always opportunities somewhere. There's always an uptrend somewhere.
ian_1_08-15-2025_115129it's about to be European financials and I'm, well, it has been European. Financial, it's now on a relative base, you're getting another, you know, you beg for something. You beg for something different than the s and p Dave, and then it comes, and
david_1_08-15-2025_105128You
ian_1_08-15-2025_115129I don't wanna,
david_1_08-15-2025_105128look good, man.
ian_1_08-15-2025_115129they do they do emerging markets? Look, I mean now yes. If you got China to, I mean, they look fine. Yeah. I just need to. I dunno. We'll get what we get. Won't we
david_1_08-15-2025_105128We will. Well, Ian, thanks for doing this again with me. I hope you have a dry weekend so you can get outside, get some pool time with the kids before school starts. Thanks for everybody listening. Give us a high ranking on your platform of choice and share it with your friends. That means a lot to us. appreciate it.
ian_1_08-15-2025_115129have a great weekend everyone?