The Weekly Trend
The Weekly Trend
Episode 267: All Over The Place
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In this week’s episode, David and Ian discuss how precious metals and precious metals miners continue to do well, homebuilders are showing strength, lumber continuing to move lower, whether this is a start of a larger move in Biotech, areas of strength within small caps, moves in interest rates, and other areas of the market that are consolidating.
Welcome back to the Weekly Trend Podcast. Today is Friday, September 5th, 2025 s and P 500, currently sitting at 64 66. I'm David Darling. I'm here with Ian McMillan. Another week gone by in the market. Plenty to highlight episode 2 67 already. What do we wanna talk about in this one?
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703Yeah. 64 you said? 64. 67.
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704Yeah.
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703That's where we were last Friday,
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704Mm-hmm. So
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703and I think last Friday. We said that's where we were the Friday before. Is that right? Yeah,
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704Yep. Same spot, same
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703actually
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704The same man
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703I,
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704never steps in the same river twice.
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703the last four Fridays.
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704That's a great point actually, what you're about to say.
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703The last four Fridays, the daily candle has been in this area 360 4 67.
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704Yeah, weekly close for the week of August 11th was 64. 49 weekly close. 64, 66, the week after that last week. 64, 60 this week. Currently sitting at 64. 67. So really don't even know why, why we do this. Like, not
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703Yeah,
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704been a straight line sideways.
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703NASDAQ pretty much is the same. Dallas held up, I think Dallas held up pretty well
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704It has, it's held its highs.
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703above that 45,000 level maybe building out a range. So yeah, brought in into cease. Not too shabby.
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704Yeah. Considering the seasonal period we're in. August buck, the seasonal trend, on what seasonality you look at for September. Now, September in a post-election year, I guess, isn't too bad, which is what we're in. But historically speaking, you know, if you look at last 20 years of data, September typically week for broad indices. But there's always plenty of things to talk about underneath the surface. Anything catching your attention that's happening.
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703Yeah, a few things. Precious metals, well, gold, silver, copper, copper's, not a precious metal. This continue to look pretty, well look pretty good. Little pocket, I mean little pockets here and there. Aerospace, I don't know if the aerospace thing is rolling over. We'll see some of the higher momentum aerospace stuff getting hit a little bit harder. I think that's probably like a broad. Momentum thing. Momentum's been a little, a little blah.
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704Little blah little off.
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703That's okay.
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704Mm-hmm. Markets do what they do best. move up and down. But I think, you know, things like you highlighted before we hopped on here, home builders,
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703Home builders. Yeah. Home builders.
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704very fascinating to see that strength. And to your point, gold miners, silver
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703Solar. I don't know if I'm a believer in solar yet. Maybe we talk, I think we talked about solar last week. I,
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704It's gotten some airtime in the past few episodes.
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703yeah, I mean, it's not too bad. China's still kind of waiting on China. See if it's gonna do anything Rare Earth metals.
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704So kind of, kind of, interesting to see the, the rotation underneath the surface, yet the broad indices move sideways. It's almost like rotation is a lifeblood of markets, and I know that's something that JC Pretz likes to harp on. Is, and I, I think it's absolutely true that there's times where markets rotate and now appears to be one of those times, right, where we still see breath holding up fine. Whether you're looking at a advanced decline line or you're looking at a bullish percent, or you're just looking at charts like you're looking at the thousands of charts of individual assets. Things are
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703Yeah,
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704Things are holding up just fine. Especially from like
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703We got the breakout in gold finally.
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704mm-hmm.
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703I think that was, well, we didn't, markets technically weren't open on. Monday. But yeah, Tuesday day, big gap higher. So that puts physical gold, gold futures above the 3535 30 area, which should have been rejected at quite a few times. I mean, April, may, June, July. August, every single month we've gone up to three. That 35 50 area got rejected, finally broke through two. Stay continues to look good. Minors have looked, I mean, minors broke out a few weeks ago though, so it's kind of a, I know we mentioned this, but kind of a clue that market participants thought gold was gonna go higher because gold miners, you know, same kind of same look, but early August broke out. I'm using GDX, definitely one of the strong, I mean, you can put GDX up against a lot of things in the market and. It looks pretty good.
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704That's kind of a sign of health, right? If you can put a sector, an asset or a certain type of thing up against everything else, and the chart looks great, probably a clue. And gold miners and silver miners definitely have that going for them. Wouldn't be surprised to see that continue throughout the year and. One of the places that has been really strong, know, year to date and even before then are semiconductors, and that's kind of been a mixed bag. You know, if you look at a more broad measurement, like SD still doing well, but when you're, when something like Nvidia is larger than basically the rest of semiconductors in SMH. That's going sideways in inter, you know, a small term, small timeframe correction here. SMH
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703average, average semiconductor stuck doing better than your big,
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704Yep.
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703okay. Yeah.
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704you know, I, I guess, I mean, Broadcom doing well.
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703What's Micron doing? Micron is pretty strong.
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704larger semiconductors doing well.
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703Yeah. I mean, look at, you got Micron about, I mean, trying to get to one year highs
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704mm-hmm.
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703and you got Nvidia breaking down to like six week lows. Seven week lows. Yeah, so that makes sense that XSD is doing better than SMH.
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704Yep, the math. Be math. And what other areas have your attention? I know we talked home
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703How about biotech? What do we think about biotech now? It depends on what you use to look at biotech.
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704I love that
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703'cause there's a few, there's a few different ETFs out there. Hmm. I don't know. I mean, it's definitely in a good move.
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704I mean IBB versus s and p
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703Yeah, right into 200 a.
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704and it's, it's relative 200 day, and it's still 67% drawdown versus the s and p from its peak back in August of 2015. So we're going on a decade here of a drawdown. Is this the start of something maybe. If it is, there's time. Like, it's not like you're, you're missing out, but you're right. There's multiple ways to measurement. Ib IBB is not the only one. You know, you could look at X x, b, H, wait, I don't have that right. What's the other
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703BBH.
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704xh B'S, home builders. What am I doing? Maybe I'm just so fixated on the home builders, which I find fascinating considering all the
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703Yeah,
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704all the negative talk around.
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703lumber prices keep falling off a cliff.
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704they do.
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703What do you think about bonds? Bond's having a good week? Well, it lasts two days.
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704Oh, I thought you were talking about Barry Bonds. I was gonna say he should be in the hall.
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703Yeah. You, if you had, if you got, if you had a ballot, you'd put'em in.
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704I put him in,
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703I'd put'em in.
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704I
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703Would you put P rose in?
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704Pete Rose would be in.
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703Yeah. It's getting thin. Boy, I, we didn't, we don't have a lot of MLB, A lot of Hall of Fame talent coming up. Not a lot of people coming that are coming becoming eligible That are gonna make it,
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704Yeah. and Kevin were talking about that, how they, what.
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703yeah, it's gonna get pretty thin for, because they, if you go, if you go to the website, they list up like who's coming eligible over the next five years. They go by year. Next year's not bad, but after that, like 20 28, 20 20 through 2030, I don't know, man. I don't know if we're not only, are there just like fewer names of people that are eligible, they just are not, there's definitely no first se, I mean, there's no first time, first ballot, abductees.
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704Maybe
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703sure.
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704it. Maybe that's when you do it, when it gets thin, you, you bring in bonds and rows and put'em
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703Wow. Yeah. Probably good marketing play.
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704Mm-hmm. I mean, if we can get a Taylor Swift, Travis Kel marketing play, can't we, can we put bonds and rows in the hall,
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703Yeah. Come on.
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704get it together?
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703Something big.
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704but since you were asking about actual, like the asset class bonds, you know, I think decent move out of 20 plus year treasuries today.
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703Yeah.
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704And when you look at. 30 year treasury yields down to its 200 day pretty aggressively, you know, responding to the five level, 5% level and 10 year yields below a 200 day, still within a range that goes back to 2023. But man
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703Hmm.
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704rates definitely have a look of like. Maybe going to the bottom part of the range here,
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703Yeah.
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704which would be interesting.
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703Yeah. 30 year sitting on top of a 200 day now, it could just be cruising in, right? For a little touch and go.
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704Mm-hmm. Is it really that easy? Is it really that easy that we're seeing home builders do this and we're seeing rates fall off?
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703And lumber.
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704Mm-hmm.
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703I mean, it would be a nice little, right, I guess, right. That would be, I mean, I guess I'm a I mean I'm a simpleton. When it comes to. Trying to piece together what the next big theme might be. But yeah that would make sense
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704you're
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703you told me. Yeah, if you told me home builders would outperform while lumber's going lower and mortgage rates are going lower,
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704make
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703get it.
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704Yeah. Make some sense there. Has always gotta, you know, take each chart on its own merit. You know, if, if they keep selling off canola, I don't know if that has any ram, you know, to home builders.
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703Yeah. Nice trade there from Kevin.
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704Mm-hmm.
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703Boy, I tried to shake him out a couple times. I
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704strong though. He's
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703is,
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704got those diamond hands.
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703can you believe that Kevin's going home trading canola futures?
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704I think it'd be hilarious if he held the tell execution. Then he's gotta, he actually has to deliver 20 metric tons of canola.
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703He is got three acres
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704Just
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703and everyone around him has a, he could probably borrow, he could ask one of his neighbors.
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704better start growing. Kevin what about, what about small caps?
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703Oh. I mean, they had. A not bad. I mean, obviously this whole thing, they probably held up. I mean, that's so hard. It's not like indie. It's not like the s and p is really even I'm bad. They've done well. I mean, you can't, can't hate'em. Similar look to biotech. So back to like a relative 200 day pretty strongly downward sloping, relative 200 day. I don't know. I know like regional banks aren't doing anything. I don't know. It's tough.
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704It's gotta take some time to build out. I mean, it's, is interesting to see it respond at a relative level, level to the s and p that's important. And you know, I, I think. It's safe to say that it's the small cap material space that's driving and that's your, some of your gold miners.
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703Well, minors. Yeah, for sure.
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704But there's other, you know, there's other things in there, some therapeutics, but yeah, I mean, small caps not too shabby the past month and a half.
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703No, no, they haven't been bad at all.
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704And if you're gonna turn the corner, this is what it kind of would look like.
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703yeah, still kind of a. Still a little bit in the boy who cried Wolf zone for me.
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704Okay.
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703I just, I don't know. We'll see. I mean this, this is what now if you wanna do it right, so you're just now getting back over a relative 200 A.
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704Huh.
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703So if you wanna use that, I mean, this would be the time.
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704Could manage risk with that.
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703But where's, so where's this gonna come from now?'cause I don't I don't know if I see it under the surface. I guess not.
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704I mean, I
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703Maybe industrials, I guess.
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704is just that small cap financials are the heaviest weighting
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703Yeah.
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704in small caps. And when you, when you look at what's driving underneath the surface, it's small cap materials, small cap healthcare,
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703Could be healthcare. Yeah. Which I guess is biotech.
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704Mm-hmm.
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703Yeah.
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704Still is prove itself, but worth looking at and mean. Meanwhile, the top sector continues to produce overall communication services.
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703Yeah. Comm Services, financials kind of fell apart, at least today. Relative base, not fell apart, but I mean, they're below a 200 day relative, 200 day, they don't look bad. Then you got things like. Utilities continue to look pretty poor. They got, I mean, they're the lowest relative levels since January,
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704Mm-hmm.
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703so
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704That
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703that's a win.
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704yeah. And that doesn't really fit the lower interest rate
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703I was gonna say, yeah, that's interesting. With rates going lower.
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704So you, you can basically make up any macro theme you want.
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703You can. That's why, and they pay people. They are people that go to journalism school and they are paid to write stories to fit what price is already doing.
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704Yep.
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703Just keep that in mind.
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704Price comes first. News comes second. Wet streets don't cause rain.
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703The industrials continue to go lower. I mean, tech tech's getting kind of a bounce today. Discretionary's not bad. I mean, there's a lot of retail. Kevin had discretionary workbook yesterday when I went through charts yesterday morning. I haven't been through as many today, but yesterday morning, definitely a lot of retail apparel, that type of stuff.
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704Agreed Boot barn,
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703Boot barn.
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704which have never actually been in one of those.
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703I know Kevin said he'd never been to an Ollie's.
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704I haven't been to that either.
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703You ever been to an Ollie's bargain outlet?
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704No,
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703Do you guys have big lots up there?
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704we've got big lots, but they've closed a
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703Yeah,
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704'em. Closed a lot of'em around here.
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703they closed a lot of'em in the south too. One of'em, I kid you not one is now, I was just back in my hometown over the weekend. And one of them is Spirit Halloween.
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704I guess we know what time of year it is.
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703Yep.
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704Oh, we're, we're losing 90 minutes of daylight up here in Wisconsin in September. I don't know why Kevin had to post that information Be
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703Well, you're in the southern part of the state, so it's only 80 minutes.
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704Yeah. Southern this, the southern hemisphere of Wisconsin. Wonder how much you're losing Winter's coming.
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703People in Alaska. Are people in Alaska now just starting to get like how, how many hours a day is it dark in Alaska? It's probably starting to get real dark.
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704Probably I'm gonna, I'm gonna Google it,
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703Or I've got, or I've got it backwards and it's gonna start getting real light.
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704man. Period of complete darkness in Alaska can last up to 64 days.
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703Yeah. Wind. When, what time of period? What time of year is that?
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704Well, it's gonna be winter. Like when And winter though, it appears that Alaska's a very big state. I don't know if you
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703Yeah,
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704Fascinating. I, I don't know if I could do it. I don't know if I could live in Alaska.'cause I
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703no. Beautiful place.
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704Beautiful. Oh, well, it's, it's otherworldly. It's a, everybody should
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703So cold. Damn. It's so cold. I can barely do Wisconsin for five days.
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704but I, but I'd be the guy during the other peak light there's like 24 hours of light mowing my lawn at midnight. when I
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703yeah.
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704When
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703Killing time.
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704My neighbors are trying to sleep and I'm mow the lawn.
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703Think about your bo. It would, how long do you think, I bet it would take like three years for your body to adjust. Yeah. So summer there. Like there June, July, I guess is just, yeah, you're just killing time with daylight. Just killing time. Probably get a ton of work done.
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704So we're, we're short Alaskan daylight right now. Definitely coming back in. I don't know how we got off on this diatribe,
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703Very seasonal trade.
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704very, very seasonal. Poly market's coming,
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703Yeah, we are getting poly market,
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704Poly
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703we're gonna figure out a way how to, they're gonna have a brokerage arm
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704Mm-hmm.
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703you can link, like your RIA can link up to it.
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704That'd be crazy.
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703I have a 2% allocation and JD Vance being the Republican nominee, although that would be a very good trade at this point.
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704I mean, he is said he is ready to be president.
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703Imagine your client seeing those line items on their monthly statement
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704Got open wagers on Poly market about Alaska and Salmon and the next president. Yeah, that'd be
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703and you know that hard earned money that you spent 60 years obtaining put, I put 25 grand of that into,
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704poly market.
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703Market into presidential nominee?
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704well, and you know what if, if, if we were, if we were to say, right,'cause I know that's, there is a mantra out there that we're in a bubble. It's not like poly market coming to the US is,
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703No.
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704would refute that. I mean, the fact that there's enough demand for that type of stuff. I get, you know, you, you look back and be like, yeah, I guess, I guess that makes sense that we're in a bubble.
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703I mean, gambling. Yeah, gambling is, so that's a big, big, I mean, it is just taken the US by storm, I mean like it's sports betting. So yeah. Now we're betting on. I mean, you can bet on anything. You and I could go on there and make Well, can you, can you can an individual go on and make their own?
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704Their own market. Market? It's a great question. I don't know the answer to that. A market on Barry Bonds and Pete Rose,
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703Or like private betting markets between you and coworkers. Like, oh, is is Bobby gonna get put on a pip?
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704just saw those listing. There's no Bobby that works
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703Yeah. There's no Bobby that works. Client first.
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704That's right. We're all over the place. Get it together, Ian. What
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703I know it's definitely Friday.
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704it is, definitely Friday, four day week.
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703What do you think? What do you. What do you think about sentiment? You think it's well, I mean, why we talk about this where we know we're not in euphoria. Can't be. There's no way we're in euphoria.
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704Agreed, because Mo like the fact that you have people saying it's a bubble is not where bubbles are. Bubbles are when no one's talking about a bubble and everybody's making money'cause everything is going up,
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703Yeah.
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704that's, that's a bubble. You know, it goes back to the old adage, you know, is it a bubble? you're not in the market or are you in the market because it's a bubble. When you talk about sentiment, the fact that we've had five straight weeks of more bears than bulls
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703Yeah.
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704a A i I surveys, and you still kind of have, I mean, it's not crazy elevated, but the fact that you have an elevated put call ratio out there and then you've got what the VIX did this week that spiked, and it's since cooled off.
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703But then you still have now before I say this, the bullish percent in Xs.
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704Mm-hmm.
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703It's been there for like a week or so now. Maybe a little longer.
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704And about midfield, right? So it's not like
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703Yeah.
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704bullish percent.
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703Nothing. Not even, yeah, I mean 61. So you're definitely not getting like a blow off top type of move like a into 2021. 20. 20.
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704And it wasn't that, it wasn't that many episodes ago, like mid-July where we talked. About how normal it would be after a move like this to have the market move sideways.
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703Yeah.
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704And here we are. The markets move sideways, digested those gains and information's coming. And what I mean by that is you get a market that's moved sideways. We call that consolidation as technicians, and you like to see those, that consolidation, confirm the primary trend, which is up. So if we, if we get into, you know, November and these consolidations are, know it's two months in, but if we get in November and the consolidations break down, well that's information. But for right now it's just a correction through time. Perfectly normal for markets. But it's just interesting that you keep, have top collars out there. Bubble collars, more bears than bulls. Vic spikes for premium going up. I mean, it's, to your point, it's not euphoria and I'm not, I'm not even sure if it's optimism. I would call it skepticism
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703I agree.
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704and
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703Definitely very skeptical. We continue to grind higher.
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704I.
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703I do wonder if September's gonna be weird. I know you said last week we didn't really get the, the August volatility. September also falls into that seasonal bucket. Wonky markets. But then, I mean, we get now, today's action isn't great, but we gap to an all time high today.
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704Right.
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703We'll see where we close. People continue to pile into gold and gold miners. That doesn't, right? That I remember in Q1. It was a risk off. That was a big thing. Oh, look, they're buying gold miners. Risk off. Risk off. And then we did have a correction at the tariff scare, and then stocks rebounded, but they kept buying
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704Well, September
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703gold and gold miners.
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704You, you know, September and October was weird from a seasonal standpoint, you know, a lot of, a lot of times October brings volatility, but also tends to be where the market can bottom going into the strongest six month period. And then I think it's also weird that we call it September I mean, SEP means seven and OCT means These are the ninth and 10th months. I'm sure there's some history there on why that is, but it's weird. So you could expect, you're saying there could be more weirdness the next two months if you call consolidating weirdness, I would call it perfectly Normal. Markets are normally abnormal, just the way it works and you know, it's not an UPT trend.
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703What?
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704Dollar
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703No.
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704worst start. Worst start to a year since 1986 for the trade way to dollar, down 10% for the year. You can come up with all sorts of macro things with that. Find that interesting.
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703And foreign stocks continue to look good.
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704Yes.
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703Yeah. Dollar, I mean, really Now a couple attempts. Out of bound looks very, very weak. Dixie sitting at 97 and again, then you hear this stuff and I guess maybe, you know, oh, lower rates are good for small caps, weaker dollars, good for small caps. The rates, there's correlation between rates and the dollar. Yeah.
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704Mm-hmm.
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703Okay. In theory there's correlation between anything, but
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704right
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703yeah. High correlation.
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704and outta correlation, you can make the data, say whatever you want, goes back to that narrative.
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703Hmm. Well, what narrative do I want to express today, Dave? And then we'll use that data.
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704Right. I got, I got some advertising to sell you. a newspaper to sell. Well, I don't know if anybody reads newspapers anymore, but CNBC's gotta sell something.
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703Isn't that kind of a shame? Like I have fond memories of my dad reading the newspaper at the kitchen table. My kids won't get that.
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704I remember running out to the driveway just to find out what happened in the baseball game the night before. Yeah.
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703reading the box scores.
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704Yep,
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703Yeah, I always got the, he always slid, slid me over the sports section.
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704yep. Gotta see what Kirby puckett's up to. Those are the days, man. Shoot. I've even done, I've been in a fantasy football league long enough that I remember our first years, all the data by the commissioner was gathered in a newspaper. P-P-P-P-P-R wasn't a thing back then because you didn't, you don't need to tally all the receptions. It's crazy.
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703Crazy. You doing fantasy this year?
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704I am, I'm in my league that I've been in for 25 years.
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703Have you ever won it?
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704Nope, 25 years. It's like the Vikings never want,
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703Don't tell your wife that.
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704oh, she knows. We share everything Ian, even our shortcomings. But she stopped.
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703She's,
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704she has stopped asking.
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703maybe you should let her draft for you
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704Maybe
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703year.
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704maybe I should. Last year let my son draft for me. Didn't work out.
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703Not No.
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704No. Trying anything. Well, speak of, speaking of selling advertising, I should. Highlight the supporter of this podcast, the Adaptive Select ETF, listed on the New York Stock Exchange under ticker A DPV, which helps investors access to the most prevalent factors in markets, momentum and relative strength using proprietary identification methods. The adaptive Select ETF attempts to own the strongest 25 large cap stocks when the market is in an uptrend. And since not all market environments are the same, adaptive select seeks to prevent extended declines by moving to short-term treasury bills and cash during long-term market Downtrends. can find out more including how to invest in A DPV by visiting ad pv etf.com or calling 1-833-880-FIVE 200. involves risk, including possible loss of principal, a dvs distributed by Quasar Distributors LLC. We appreciate their support. Ian, anything else you want to cover?
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703I don't. Good luck to everyone's football teams this weekend,
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704Yeah. Your chiefs play Sunday
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703tonight.
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704tonight. Oh, my
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703Yep.
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704Amazing. They going back, they going back to the bowl.
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703Yeah, probably. I don't know. We'll see.
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704Okay.
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703Sure. They're, I mean, well, yeah, they're, you know,
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704they gotta pick up the slack for the Braves
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703Don't, let's not even go there.
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704Although the Braves did take one from the Cubs, which I appreciate, so thank you.
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703Yeah. Cubs are in second place in the central. Right.
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704Yep.
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703Yeah.
dave_1_09-05-2025_110704Let's keep it that way. Well, Ian, I appreciate you doing this with me. It was a good time. know, I know this particular episode went all over the place, but that's okay. Not a lot of change over the last four weeks, but I think you highlighted some really important things. You know, whether it's gold, gold, miners, what we're seeing outta semiconductors, communication services, international sentiment. I think we covered a lot of good things this week and we, we hope our listeners appreciate our candor and insight. And if you do, please share it with your friends and give us high ranking on your platform of choice.
ian_1_09-05-2025_120703Have a great weekend everyone.