The Weekly Trend
The Weekly Trend
Episode 270: Fall Ball
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In this week’s episode, David and Ian discuss areas still at or moving to all time highs, risk on versus risk off behavior, potential challenges to the continued bullish thesis, sentiment, potential reactions to a potential correction, the government shutdown, and postseason baseball.
Welcome back to the Weekly Trend Podcast. Today is Friday, October 3rd, 2025 s and P 500, currently sitting at 67 38. I'm David Starling. I'm here with Ian McMillan. We made it to October Ian
ian_1_10-03-2025_114317We made it to October, nine months,
david_1_10-03-2025_104316three. Three quarter, nine months. Oh. Seems to go quick. Be Christmas before you know it.
ian_1_10-03-2025_114317it'll be Q1.
david_1_10-03-2025_104316Yeah, I mean, you've got, you already have Halloween costumes for your kids. You already got Christmas presents too.
ian_1_10-03-2025_114317No Christmas presents. No. No Christmas presents yet.
david_1_10-03-2025_104316Okay.
ian_1_10-03-2025_114317I mean, we do, we know if we're gonna have, if this market. It doesn't keep it together. There'll be no Christmas,
david_1_10-03-2025_104316Sorry kids.
ian_1_10-03-2025_114317The kids know that, that's why they keep up with what the s and p's doing.
david_1_10-03-2025_104316See if the s and p's been naughty or nice.
ian_1_10-03-2025_114317Yeah.
david_1_10-03-2025_104316That's fair. I get it. Plenty to cover this week. I mean, another all time high and on the s and p 500 and, and several other indices.
ian_1_10-03-2025_114317Hmm. Go figure who, I mean, who would've thought that in an uptrend with a slew of new all time highs that I, we just keep on getting.
david_1_10-03-2025_104316Small caps using IWM, trying to quarter a new all time high. Dow Jones. We talked about s and p, even international stocks using something like,
ian_1_10-03-2025_114317I know the had a big month.
david_1_10-03-2025_104316yep, not too shabby. The Dax.
ian_1_10-03-2025_114317healthy. Sideways for the last, I mean, sideways since May, but healthy,
david_1_10-03-2025_104316I mean, I even think of Russell 1000 equally weighted new highs, not bad market leader like Nvidia, new Highs.
ian_1_10-03-2025_114317yes. NYSE composite new highs.
david_1_10-03-2025_104316I. All around except for Midcaps. I don't know.
ian_1_10-03-2025_114317Yeah, midcaps have definitely ah, because I mean, even, I mean, microcaps are almost there, almost back to late 2021 Midcaps, so Yeah. Not, 2025 has been a little lackluster. Okay.
david_1_10-03-2025_104316Well, I, I think some of that could be the makeup of things. You know, pretty large weighting in industrials for mid-caps, financials, consumer discretionary. When you look under the hood of those things, broadly speaking, you know, even, even tech, even tech is kinda like your, your your mega cap and then you've got your digital economy and AI and quantum computing stocks and a lot of those still fall out outside of mid-caps. You know, regional banks haven't been great. So, I mean, because,
ian_1_10-03-2025_114317haven't. And then Bio, but biotechs picked it up.
david_1_10-03-2025_104316and I'm guessing there's just
ian_1_10-03-2025_114317you've got other spots that very hard for Russell to get it all, all going in the same direction at once.
david_1_10-03-2025_104316Yep. And I think, you know, there, it's, it's worth highlighting, you know, we're, we've been pretty bullish for quite a while on here since the breath thrust in April. I think it's always good to challenge your thesis. So what are some things that you're looking at that
ian_1_10-03-2025_114317Gotta be careful. Are you inviting bearish energy?
david_1_10-03-2025_104316I am come in here bearish energy.
ian_1_10-03-2025_114317podcast. Yeah, it's been a good run. I mean, I could, right, you could have said that at the beginning of August. I do think that, well, I like to phrase it as moving, average participation you know, percentage of. Whatever constituency that is above a 200 day maybe average. So that's been kind of diverging since, what would you say, Dave? Beginning of August.
david_1_10-03-2025_104316Yeah, beginning of August.
ian_1_10-03-2025_114317Okay. Decline lines worse. Strong. They haven't, other than the s and p, they really haven't been that great over the last. A few weeks. So we'll see if that means anything. Again, I mean, you go back in history and sometimes these things go on for months and months and months or they get fixed.
david_1_10-03-2025_104316I think, I think it's safe to say the last two or three months you, you know, you have these divergent advanced decline lines. You talked about percentage of stocks above 50 and 200 day moving averages. You look at the fact that both the s and p and VIX are up, that's typically not what you see both since end of August. Credit triple CCC credit spreads up since the end of August. Junk bonds, junk bonds versus intermediate bonds. No new highs since July and so that you just have to put that in a thesis' thesis out there. And really it, these things only resolve themselves. Basically in one of two ways. Either we get a, a broad market correction. Now, I wanna be clear, when I say correction, I don't mean it has to be minus 20, but you could get a minus five to minus 10 to resolve these.
ian_1_10-03-2025_114317are gonna be down minus 20 if we get that.
david_1_10-03-2025_104316Or we get breath expansion the opposite way and. The rest of stocks pick up VIX cools off credit spreads. Cool off junk bonds versus intermediate bonds. Cool off. And I wonder if that's the pain trade cause we've melted up through, we've been strong seasonally speaking. August and September we're supposed to see some, well, seasonally speaking could have had some weakness. Didn't.
ian_1_10-03-2025_114317Yeah.
david_1_10-03-2025_104316Are people, are people still caught? In a way to take advantage of this.
ian_1_10-03-2025_114317then like you gotta buy. And I, I thought about that, right? So if you're in that position, how far do you wait? So let's say your market's ripping, you need more equity exposure for your clients, right? I mean, you can't. Really, you can't really just, I almost feel like it's a self-fulfilling, you can't wait for the 5% correction because what if that never comes? And so just like all these 2% corrections have gotten scooped up so quickly over the last couple months.
david_1_10-03-2025_104316Yeah, it.
ian_1_10-03-2025_114317Because you gotta get in there any cha, any sign of red, that's your chance to get a little bit of it back against the s and p. But then because of that behavior, you never get, you know, a decent five, 10% correction.
david_1_10-03-2025_104316Yeah, if we.
ian_1_10-03-2025_114317that all, I mean that you only have enough gunpowder to do that for so long. And I'm not saying that's the only thing that's happening.
david_1_10-03-2025_104316And you wonder if it's still one foot out the door, right? So if you're, if you're not heavy, heavily allocated and you do get a 7% correction, are you in mental purgatory?'cause you're like, see, I was right. That's why I wasn't heavily allocated. And so therefore you don't get involved then when you should be. So I think, I think there's quite a few allocators out there who might be in a really tough spot right now with this market melting like this. That doesn't mean a five, seven, 10% correction doesn't happen. I mean, October's notorious nor notoriously volatile. We just highlighted all the potential red flags. You could still get that, but I wonder if, if we do get that. Do we see, put call ratios, jump again, people getting heavy, short, and it starts to process all over again.
ian_1_10-03-2025_114317It seems to be the ml,
david_1_10-03-2025_104316you would, you would be doing that, I mean, since 1950, the fourth quarter is up 80% of the time with an average return of 4.2%, so it's the best quarter. Calendar year
ian_1_10-03-2025_114317Yeah,
david_1_10-03-2025_104316it's, it's not
ian_1_10-03-2025_114317Tip usually, now were those better years? Because we got some weakness in August and September,
david_1_10-03-2025_104316right. That's a great, that's a great point.
ian_1_10-03-2025_114317so we actually had a little bit more of a, you know, whatever
david_1_10-03-2025_104316Well, I know.
ian_1_10-03-2025_114317sidelines or.
david_1_10-03-2025_104316Brian Dietrich highlighted that 13 of the past 14 times s and p made a new high in September. It was higher than higher in Q4. The one exception,
ian_1_10-03-2025_114317of Q4 or just like at some point during Q4.
david_1_10-03-2025_104316That's a great question. I, I'm assuming it's it's end of q, end of Q4. So that your kids can have a Christmas,
ian_1_10-03-2025_114317I will let'em know they can put two things on their list.
david_1_10-03-2025_104316and I think it's telling, you know, the worst performing sector on the year, but still positive is staples.
ian_1_10-03-2025_114317Good for them.
david_1_10-03-2025_104316You know, you're getting new all time highs everywhere. I shouldn't say everywhere. You know what I mean by that? Small cap style Jones, s and p equal eight, Russell 1000 International. You're leading stocks and your worst performing sector, but still positive is staples. That's that's risk on. And then you throw in miners, whether they're gold miners, silver miners, crypto miners. What else are you seeing out there? What else do you wanna highlight for our listeners?
ian_1_10-03-2025_114317I kind of stuck on this uh, staples chart. It's interesting.
david_1_10-03-2025_104316Yeah,
ian_1_10-03-2025_114317Pretty bad. I mean, short, like intermediate, but maybe that's risk. I mean, they, because they've been selling staples, I don't think is really a risk off.
david_1_10-03-2025_104316it's risk.
ian_1_10-03-2025_114317staples to allocate to something else.
david_1_10-03-2025_104316It risk off if it's outperforming the s and p, which it's not. So they're selling staples and it's not like they're selling more risk on areas. At a faster clip, you compare X-L-P-E-T-F for staples versus a lot of different risk out areas and. It's underperforming, but yes, the absolute chart of XLP is very interesting. Agree with that.
ian_1_10-03-2025_114317what else? Yeah, we talked, I mean, gold, silver rights, so silver verse gold. Interesting. It consolidated there for a little bit. June, July, or July and August, moving higher in September. Cryptos crypto miners. In fact, I was just looking at DAP versus Ripple earlier this morning. Kind of back to, I mean the, the crypto stocks have looked pretty strong. Your DAPs, your, you know, what's the one you, W-G-M-I-C-R-P-T. They look good relative charts. It looked good. Bitcoin, it's, I mean, Bitcoin kinda nothing still consolidating. Oh, well I take that back.
david_1_10-03-2025_104316I was gonna say.
ian_1_10-03-2025_114317I didn't looked at this in the, I mean, I saw where it was back above one 17, but yeah, I was not, I wasn't aware. I
david_1_10-03-2025_104316Trying to go,
ian_1_10-03-2025_114317So yeah, we've had another pretty big moving crypto, or at least in Bitcoin. That's a good, that's good.
david_1_10-03-2025_104316well, you've got Ethereum.
ian_1_10-03-2025_114317Ethereum.
david_1_10-03-2025_104316Of this range that goes back to 2021. Currently sitting at 45, 34. I mean, if it can clear four. 8, 8, 8, I mean, that's pretty good. Look for crypto, not bad dollar. Still anemic. Trade weight, a dollar using DXY.
ian_1_10-03-2025_114317and they're trying to hold it down here. Like if you look at Dixie, I mean, we've had a couple attempts, you know, try to get below 96, 97. We'll see. But certainly some also lethargic to the upside,
david_1_10-03-2025_104316Right
ian_1_10-03-2025_114317so.
david_1_10-03-2025_104316range bound.
ian_1_10-03-2025_114317What do you think about, you mentioned earlier, VIX going up and s and p going up.
david_1_10-03-2025_104316Mm-hmm.
ian_1_10-03-2025_114317Does that you?
david_1_10-03-2025_104316No, I don't typically get spooked. I mean, it, it's always something you gotta pay attention to. If VIX is rising and s and p is rising, that's those typically. Don't do that. But that's the same with like any other divergence that can, that can not matter until it does or resolve itself and things, you know, if, if the VIX gets cools off and you see stocks accelerate to the upside, again, I go back to is that the pain trade is, are, is there, is there not enough exposure out there? And this market's gonna start really moving fast. I mean, ba, we've already, we've already moved what s and p is up 30 some percent since the April lows, so it pa can't possibly go more. But here we are, small caps, just making fresh, new all time highs since 2021. Have stocks really gone too far, too fast? Don't know. But I will say I, I'm not gonna be surprised if there is a. In the next two, three weeks, some type of five, 7% correction with the vix doing what it's doing now, also won't be surprised if it moves to the accelerates to the upside, both scenarios. Uptrend would still be intact from a big picture perspective
ian_1_10-03-2025_114317Yeah,
david_1_10-03-2025_104316and.
ian_1_10-03-2025_114317also add with. I mean to today, really this week, yesterday and the day. Should we close here? You're gonna have daily RSI. On the s and p, it's gonna be back to overbought. We know that that is good. I like that things are overbought.
david_1_10-03-2025_104316Yeah, talk to me about that. Some people would hear that term overbought and think, well, that's not good.
ian_1_10-03-2025_114317We're overbought and. May 16th,
david_1_10-03-2025_104316Be indicative of over overwhelming demand, right.
ian_1_10-03-2025_114317July. Yeah, very, very strong. We were kind of getting a divergence there, but even if we do, I mean, I think, I don't pay attention to RSI divergences if both of the peaks are above. Overbought. Just getting overbought in itself I think is super healthy. And then sometimes you have these price thrusts where you get like a really hard high RSI like 80. And then like, okay, so the next trip it say it is only gets to 72. Am I really calling that a divergence? Are we just in a strong market that keeps, like with a lot of demand? So I think there's a lot of context too, but I, I love to see it. It it's just another kind of confirmation of the I think you used it earlier, the, the grinding market we're in.
david_1_10-03-2025_104316For sir. And then you got things like aerospace and defense still doing well.
ian_1_10-03-2025_114317Every day. Every day, video games, and defense, gold, min, you know, the gold and silver miners.
david_1_10-03-2025_104316What do you think about consumer discretionary?
ian_1_10-03-2025_114317Yeah, have, I got mixed feelings on it because there are a lot of discretionary stocks that look good, and I even think A DPV has. I should know this'cause I just did the monthly update, like 17% discretionary.
david_1_10-03-2025_104316Okay.
ian_1_10-03-2025_114317And I like'em. I'm gonna like'em. You like your tape history, like I get it. I get why we own Tape History Carnival. Although Carnival's gotten hit a little bit this week. Ford cars look good. That C-A-R-Z-E-T-F continues to look good,
david_1_10-03-2025_104316It does.
ian_1_10-03-2025_114317I get it. But then, and the XLY though, kind of a disappointment. I,
david_1_10-03-2025_104316Well, and does some of that just have to do with makeup? Right. Heavily tilted towards Tesla and Amazon
ian_1_10-03-2025_114317Tesla's improved.
david_1_10-03-2025_104316and trying.
ian_1_10-03-2025_114317saw Tesla's up like a hundred percent since Tim Walls was being a funny guy.
david_1_10-03-2025_104316Since he was waving, so kind of a mixed bag is what I'm hearing. There is spots in consumer discretionary, kind of sounds like industrials, where.
ian_1_10-03-2025_114317As you took the words right outta my mouth. Yeah. She's kind of blah, like Amazon, I mean. Amazon has not gotten to year to date highs. Tried to back in early September, still above a 200 day, I mean, it's fine. Relative chart is relative charts pretty tough.
david_1_10-03-2025_104316Yeah, trying to hold it together.
ian_1_10-03-2025_114317And then your other, you know, like a Home Depot. I mean, I can't remember the last time Home Depot was on a. It hasn't been above a relative 200 day. I mean, that's a tough, it's a very tough looking relative chart over the last like three years.
david_1_10-03-2025_104316I'd even say 10 years
ian_1_10-03-2025_114317Yeah.
david_1_10-03-2025_104316Home Depot and Lowe's.
ian_1_10-03-2025_114317Yeah. Lows is rough. Is Menards isn't publicly traded, is it?
david_1_10-03-2025_104316No.
ian_1_10-03-2025_114317Good for them.
david_1_10-03-2025_104316So yeah, it, it, and then XLC,
ian_1_10-03-2025_114317Ah,
david_1_10-03-2025_104316know, communication services.
ian_1_10-03-2025_114317yeah, that kind of, I mean, it's in an uptrend, relative uptrend, absolute uptrend, and definitely a wonky one now.
david_1_10-03-2025_104316Agreed. Heavily impacted by Google and Meta and Meta's pulled back here the last two weeks, and so you could see how that would have an effect.
ian_1_10-03-2025_114317It is another sector though, where A DPV seems to have found a few that worked.
david_1_10-03-2025_104316Yeah. Speaking of A DPV, I should mention them as the supporter of this podcast. Adaptive Select ETF is listed on the New York Stock Exchange under ticker A DPV, which helps investors access to the most prevalent factors in markets, momentum and relative strength. Through proprietary identification methods, the Adaptive Select ETF attempts to own the strongest 25 large cap stocks when the market is in an uptrend. And since not mar, all market environments are the same. Adaptive select seeks to prevent extended declines by moving to short-term treasury bills and cash during long-term market Downtrends investors can find out more including how to invest in ad PV by visiting ad pv etf.com or calling 1-833-880-FIVE 200. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principle distributed by Quasar Distributors, LLC. What else? Ian, what else are you seeing out there? It could be tilt sectors asset classes, topics,
ian_1_10-03-2025_114317Hmm.
david_1_10-03-2025_104316topics du jour.
ian_1_10-03-2025_114317I think it's still, thing's still pretty growthy out there other than that. We will see if foreign stocks get it going here, like emerging markets or something.
david_1_10-03-2025_104316Yeah, there's still pockets out there internationally.
ian_1_10-03-2025_114317now I'm wondering if I just need to.
david_1_10-03-2025_104316Africa continues to move. Per, I think you guys touched base on last week.
ian_1_10-03-2025_114317We did talk about Peru,
david_1_10-03-2025_104316Not too shabby. Not too shabby at all. And I know healthcare's been a, a downtrodden sector and a leader in that area was Lily. And that's starting to show Shine signs that that's back in the game that maybe.
ian_1_10-03-2025_114317Yeah.
david_1_10-03-2025_104316Maybe demand wants to outpace supply for Lilly, which wouldn't hurt, wouldn't hurt XLV overall and the sector. Then a pretty hurt sector. You know, you talk about staples being a weak, weak performer I think you'd put
ian_1_10-03-2025_114317made it all time highs.
david_1_10-03-2025_104316nice. But what about this government shutdown, Ian, that's gonna, that's gonna crash this market, right?
ian_1_10-03-2025_114317Yeah. When did they start that? Tuesday, Monday. My life personally has not been affected, so I'm unaware of when it was actually started Tuesday, I guess.
david_1_10-03-2025_104316Government didn't cut off your internet.
ian_1_10-03-2025_114317No
david_1_10-03-2025_104316Okay.
ian_1_10-03-2025_114317market seems to be fine with it. I saw where Spain is their government like, and this is the government really shut down.
david_1_10-03-2025_104316Well, I think, I think a bunch of government employees get furloughed. I remember a time when like the big deal was like National parks were, I think that was during 2013, national parks were shut down. Things like that. I don't, I don't know what government services are, are affected,
ian_1_10-03-2025_114317What about like, do we get our mail?
david_1_10-03-2025_104316I guess we'll find out.
ian_1_10-03-2025_114317I don't know.
david_1_10-03-2025_104316But I do know last government shutdown in 20 18, 20 19, which was like 35 days long. SP 500 was up 10% during that time.
ian_1_10-03-2025_114317Oh, let's do that again.
david_1_10-03-2025_1043162013. The time, yeah. Let's do 365. 20 13, 16 days, government was shut down. SP was up 3%. 19 95, 96, 21 days of government was shut down. SP was up about 0.3%, 19 95, 5 days. SAP was up 1.2%. So we'll see. I mean, I'm, I'm sure we could go back further in the data and find exceptions. But it's almost like if the rules of the market aren't gonna change, market participants like it. So maybe we should have a permanent government shutdown. Maybe
ian_1_10-03-2025_114317Hey.
david_1_10-03-2025_104316our lives would, maybe our lives would be better.
ian_1_10-03-2025_114317Let's spook'em. I'm all for add. Add some bricks to the wall of worry
david_1_10-03-2025_104316You know those, you know, those are gonna be the sensational headlines. Government shutdown down, especially if we do get like some five, five or 7% move during that. It'll be chicken, little and sky is falling. Get that put call ratio up. People trying to short the market again.
ian_1_10-03-2025_114317It would probably be worse than the all the tariffs,
david_1_10-03-2025_104316Ooh. Tariff tantrum. Very provocative. Gets the people going.
ian_1_10-03-2025_114317they know how to do it.
david_1_10-03-2025_104316Yep. Aren't they good at sensationalizing the news? Gotta sell commercials. Anything else, Ian, before we ask our listeners to give us a high ranking and share this episode with huddles.
ian_1_10-03-2025_114317don't, it's not the most rip roaring, although, I mean, we were up three and a half percent in September. It's a pretty good month.
david_1_10-03-2025_104316Yeah,
ian_1_10-03-2025_114317You
david_1_10-03-2025_104316would say
ian_1_10-03-2025_114317that? That's
david_1_10-03-2025_104316how do, can you do that? Can you do that? Can you analyze annualize after a good month? Because I feel like that's.
ian_1_10-03-2025_114317but I think it helps put things in perspective,
david_1_10-03-2025_104316Yeah, but I've golfed be, I've golfed before and I, I've done the whole, like, well, imagine if I play the rest of my round, like these three holes, and then it just, yeah, it just doesn't, doesn't happen. Fall baseball. Are you watching any, are you watching any fall baseball or The braids are not in it, and so, so you're.
ian_1_10-03-2025_114317such a disgusting person to even ask that. Are you watching Fall baseball? No. I'm still sad. Dave. Brian Sniffer retired though.
david_1_10-03-2025_104316Really.
ian_1_10-03-2025_114317Yeah.
david_1_10-03-2025_104316Okay. You are welcome.
ian_1_10-03-2025_114317They want, apparently, I think the Giants interviewed him too, but the dude from University of Tennessee, he's getting a lot of MLB inquiries, this off season. Tony
david_1_10-03-2025_104316think that
ian_1_10-03-2025_114317I think is his name.
david_1_10-03-2025_104316Great name, great name.
ian_1_10-03-2025_114317He's a good coach. I mean. also as a South Carolina baseball fan, I would love for him to leave Tennessee. So let's do that.
david_1_10-03-2025_104316Let's do that. Double win. Well, you're, you're always welcome to cheer for the brewers. As
ian_1_10-03-2025_114317Yeah.
david_1_10-03-2025_104316as your second team.
ian_1_10-03-2025_114317have already started your series, right?
david_1_10-03-2025_104316No, we start Saturday, tomorrow.
ian_1_10-03-2025_114317Okay.
david_1_10-03-2025_104316had a bye.
ian_1_10-03-2025_114317you're going
david_1_10-03-2025_104316I'm gonna go on Monday.
ian_1_10-03-2025_114317Justin's going.
david_1_10-03-2025_104316Yeah, we gotta, we gotta cheer these guys on. We got the Cubs. The Cubs coming to town. That's
ian_1_10-03-2025_114317Micah going,
david_1_10-03-2025_104316se serious. Trying, trying to make that work. It's balancing act between, you know. Up late school and varsity sports participation. So we'll get that figured out trying to make it happen. He's an ra so he is gotta get some time.
ian_1_10-03-2025_114317okay. Yeah,
david_1_10-03-2025_104316He's gotta, he gotta figure out his schedule to make it work. But that would be the plan to get the boys there.
ian_1_10-03-2025_114317That'll be
david_1_10-03-2025_104316And then, and then I'm trying to decide how I'm gonna approach it with them.'cause I don't know that they've seen. They've seen dad share on the brewers, but have they seen dad cheer on the playoff brewers? Ooh. Might be getting rowdy. Might be getting loud.
ian_1_10-03-2025_114317After a few beers might be a new introduction.
david_1_10-03-2025_104316Well, yeah, I, I don't,
ian_1_10-03-2025_114317this side of dad before.
david_1_10-03-2025_104316yes. Right.
ian_1_10-03-2025_114317Is he take, is dad taking his shirt off?
david_1_10-03-2025_104316Why does he have a Brewer's logo painted on his chest for the team? Everything for the team. But yeah, you're welcome to join us. You're welcome to
ian_1_10-03-2025_114317Okay.
david_1_10-03-2025_104316cheer on.
ian_1_10-03-2025_114317I might be an honorary Brewers fan for a couple months,
david_1_10-03-2025_104316Yeah,
ian_1_10-03-2025_114317months.
david_1_10-03-2025_104316yeah. Hopefully. Hopefully for a little, a little while here we would, this town would go crazy. Such a great baseball town. Milwaukee fans are some of the best fans, so that'd be a real nice, and I love that it's rivalry series with the Cubs coming to town. Bring the smoke, bring the smoke.
ian_1_10-03-2025_114317That will be good.
david_1_10-03-2025_104316Let's do it. Well, Ian, I appreciate you doing this with me again this week. We do ask those listening if you appreciate this, share with others, give us a high ranking, we would love it.
ian_1_10-03-2025_114317Have a great weekend everyone.