The Weekly Trend
The Weekly Trend
Episode 275: Thin Ice
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In this week's episode, David Zarling and Ian McMillan discuss the current pullback in equities, important levels moving forward, the US Dollar, Gold and Gold Miners, International areas still holding up well, and earnings reactions.
Welcome back to the Weekly Trend Podcast. Today is Friday, November 7th, 2024 s and P 500, currently sitting at 66 35. I'm David Darling. I'm here with Ian McMillan. Little bit of selling this week.
ian_1_11-07-2025_121018Yeah. Certainly selling. Would you say we're at 66 35?
david_1_11-07-2025_111017p, I can use a different index if you'd like.
ian_1_11-07-2025_121018No. Yeah, that's we are below a 50 day moving average upward slipping, 50 day moving average. Lost the October highs around 67 70. Lost the rate of trend from the August lows. It's a tough look. It's a tough intermediate term look.
david_1_11-07-2025_111017I mean, uptrend, broad uptrend still intact,
ian_1_11-07-2025_121018Yeah.
david_1_11-07-2025_111017but a 4% correction ever feels good. But you always have plenty of those during the year. I mean, on average. S and P 500 return annually is around eight or 9%, but you typically get a draw down on average about minus 14. And then you should be like, well, Dave, we had one in March and April. Why do we have to do this again? But it doesn't have to be a minus 20. It could just be a minus five, minus seven, perfectly normal. goes back to what we've talked about. The past three or four weeks breath has been weak. This resolves in one of two ways. Either we get broadening out and breath catches up to the generals on the field, the generals walk off the field and we have a, we have the large cap, big cap tech, catching down to weak breath, and that's what we've got,
ian_1_11-07-2025_121018Yeah.
david_1_11-07-2025_111017right? You look at something like. Nvidia down 10% on the week, Broadcom down 8% on the week. Although I will say Apple holding up is a
ian_1_11-07-2025_121018Apple is hot up. Well,
david_1_11-07-2025_111017And I think whenever you have corrective markets like this, it's about looking for that. is the strength? So we, we,
ian_1_11-07-2025_121018good.
david_1_11-07-2025_111017the surface a lot of, a lot of weakness.
ian_1_11-07-2025_121018Google's held up well,
david_1_11-07-2025_111017Yeah, Google held up. Well, held up well. Healthcare financials, I would say even some international held up. Okay,
ian_1_11-07-2025_121018yeah.
david_1_11-07-2025_111017so while these. Short term, it's the intermediate term. Corrections don't feel good, and as a trend follower, you're gonna be invested going into them, right? There's no such thing as being able to predict and not participate in countertrend moves, which is what this would currently be, minus 4% after pretty normal market behavior. Considering the market had rallied, you know, almost Since the April lows,
ian_1_11-07-2025_121018Yeah,
david_1_11-07-2025_111017that's pretty normal.
ian_1_11-07-2025_121018that's a good point.
david_1_11-07-2025_111017What
ian_1_11-07-2025_121018Mix V back above. 22. This would be the highest weekly close since May.
david_1_11-07-2025_111017Yeah. And so that means can expect daily moves greater than 1% up or down. And I think it'll be telling to see if investors get aggressively hedged against this, or if they don't. I know earlier, you know, just a couple of weeks ago. In early October, did see a jump in the put call. It'll be interesting to see if we see that same thing, and it's pretty normal. You know, you mentioned the 50 day moving average. We've got the point of control on the s and p 500, near 50, these important lows near 65 50, and then you've got 6,400 some important price levels there.
ian_1_11-07-2025_121018Okay.
david_1_11-07-2025_111017just acknowledging where, where are we looking for, because all this is is price discovery, right? Price moves down to see when sellers are willing to stop selling, and when buyers are willing to buy more, we're gonna find out where that is.
ian_1_11-07-2025_121018Well, I can tell you for me personally, I'm over the discovery. Don't need to discovery. We don't need to price discovery anymore. We found it. We found it.
david_1_11-07-2025_111017you like it when we go in straight lines.
ian_1_11-07-2025_121018Yeah.
david_1_11-07-2025_111017That's fair. See, I, I view this as, okay, did we have EU four year before? Like, was that it, the market top?
ian_1_11-07-2025_121018I dunno. I mean, I would say no, definitely not euphoria.
david_1_11-07-2025_111017I mean, you had how many publications over the past two weeks talking about how. You know, Goldman Sachs thinks there's a major correction coming. Jamie Diamond thinks there's a
ian_1_11-07-2025_121018Yeah.
david_1_11-07-2025_111017coming.
ian_1_11-07-2025_121018Yeah.
david_1_11-07-2025_111017You're typically not seeing that type of narrative. Now, on the flip side, you know, people piling into options and leveraged products, you know, there probably is some unwind to happen. And wouldn't it be poetic if Nancy Pelosi's retirement, mark the top of the market, the best investor the world has ever seen.
ian_1_11-07-2025_121018We'd have to get her to run again.
david_1_11-07-2025_111017Right. She came in,
ian_1_11-07-2025_121018Her,
david_1_11-07-2025_111017she came into politics in 1987 with$165,000 net worth, and her net worth right now is 280 million. She is really good at investing
ian_1_11-07-2025_121018she is.
david_1_11-07-2025_111017or, or. She trades on inside information that nobody else in the world gets to use, and maybe we should have a rule for that for politicians. Just maybe
ian_1_11-07-2025_121018Yeah, she's certainly a
david_1_11-07-2025_111017amazing trades. Amazing
ian_1_11-07-2025_121018a uh, kind of the face of.
david_1_11-07-2025_111017I.
ian_1_11-07-2025_121018The Congressional insider trading frustrations that a lot of Americans have. Maybe just gonna start a newsletter.
david_1_11-07-2025_111017She's going sell side.
ian_1_11-07-2025_121018Yeah.
david_1_11-07-2025_111017Gonna have some research to sell you.
ian_1_11-07-2025_121018For the love of the game.
david_1_11-07-2025_111017Yeah. Something. But I find that fascinating. I digress. We have big cap catching down the weak breath. We've highlighted the important levels on the s and p 567 50, which were below 65 50, 6400. And then you have the 200 days sitting around 60, 1 30, dare I say,
ian_1_11-07-2025_121018Ooh,
david_1_11-07-2025_111017like that.
ian_1_11-07-2025_121018let's not, let's not do that.
david_1_11-07-2025_111017We have Russell 2000 below 2,400. You kind of wanted to see this work through those highs, those prior highs, and we'll see, maybe this week is just a check down to those prior highs and we move higher. We have to wait for further data to come in. But I think another kind of telling thing is when you have these quote unquote really great earnings reports, but the price and price reactions to them or not.
ian_1_11-07-2025_121018Yeah, I was gonna, I was gonna ask you or less, at least bring up the fact that. We are in earning season. Yes, I've seen a lot of reactions. I'd say most of them seem to be down. I I haven't caught many big important stocks with upward, I guess some Amazon did. But yeah, a lot of big red candles. On earnings reports, and like you said these would be considered good earnings reports
david_1_11-07-2025_111017Right.
ian_1_11-07-2025_121018by the people that do their little math and numbers and kind of estimate what earnings per share would be. So I don't know, is that a, a late cycle thing? Have we entered the stage of. Gotta be perfect, right? There's such a different vibe between like earnings reports and, you know, a year, like this year where you're coming off the lows, right? So I mean, you can use anything as bullish. When there's a Market tailwind. And yeah. Do you see that on the flip side when you get to this end of the the rally?
david_1_11-07-2025_111017Well, I have no idea. All I know is that, know, people get really focused on. Earnings reports and the market is not working on pricing in that report. It's about the future. So
ian_1_11-07-2025_121018Yeah.
david_1_11-07-2025_111017a company have like earnings that are 300% greater than they're supposed to be, but they're down on the week, many investors that would be very, they'd be flummoxed by that. Like, how is it possible that a stock that has an earning surprise of 300%. Can be down. Well, maybe it's because the big boys realize it's really unsustainable for that type of earnings growth to carry on for the next 12 months, right? The market's always pricing in six to 18 months in the future. sometimes you get these earnings extremes it can't that, that, that trend can't possibly continue in the eyes of the people making those. Investment decisions. So I don't think we same. It's the same thing. On the flip side, how could earnings get any possibly any worse?
ian_1_11-07-2025_121018Yeah.
david_1_11-07-2025_111017up, So I don't know. I don't know if that, you know, is a, a harbinger of things to come, is that, you know, we had a bunch of positive earnings releases, but negative price reaction.'cause it's not the earnings themselves, it's the price reaction you wanna pay attention to. And is that a shot across the bow? know because I guess I'd be looking for a little more confirmation out of things like equal weight discretionary versus equal weight staples, which is still consolidating. I wouldn't expect financials to be up in a tape like this this week or some of the international strength or something like Las Vegas Sands to be up,
ian_1_11-07-2025_121018I mean equal eight s and p is basically flat today.
david_1_11-07-2025_111017Yeah, so it, I mean, it is this more large cap catching down to the weak breath. The weeks to come, a resetting of breath that carries us higher. I think that's a likelier outcome based on things like where we have seen some strength, whether it's financials, healthcare, specifically biotech, which is risk on some of the international things. Now, if Big Tech continues to. Crumble. Well, that'll be a problem'cause it's the largest players on the field. It'd be
ian_1_11-07-2025_121018Yep.
david_1_11-07-2025_111017to carry that. Time will tell. I mean of the big names Apple, Amazon, Broadcom, Google Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, Tesla, Microsoft and Meta are already through their, the downside, through their 50 day moving averages. I I, I do wonder if the others will follow.
ian_1_11-07-2025_121018Yeah, that's yeah, Microsoft is a really rough look. I know we were joking two weeks ago about the double top, but,
david_1_11-07-2025_111017yeah, it not a great look.
ian_1_11-07-2025_121018It is not. It's not, do not, don't care. For that Netflix below it's 200 day and it has been for a couple weeks now. You said Met is below. It's 200 day. Yeah. Look, I mean that's even worse. That had a bad earnings reaction and has continued self pretty much every day since then.
david_1_11-07-2025_111017And here we have energy positive on the week. You know, is this, is this just gonna be rotation into some of these other hard hit areas? I mean, we are in a environment where only 30% of the New York Stock Exchange is greater than 50 day moving average. So the, the carnage underneath the surface.
ian_1_11-07-2025_121018Man, that's
david_1_11-07-2025_111017broadly has, has, has been there. Like it's already, you know, there's only 30% of the NYC above a 50 day moving average, and that's pretty low number heading into this. And so is this a reset as we head into the, these next six months, or are we gonna have a week November in December, which really makes of what's gonna happen in 2026? Very interesting. You have to open to both, but first you gotta break some of those levels that we talked about before.
ian_1_11-07-2025_121018We talked about, I would say just momentum in general continues to be a tough spot. Maybe I should say that on this podcast, but it's, I mean, it is what it is. Momentum and just like anything else. Periods of over and under performance. And you see that in a lot of, I mean yeah. Even the s and p momentum type funds. Right. So then you wonder, okay. I mean, right. That's, that's growth. That's Omega caps, that's these other things that have been hot for four or five years. We saw that back in February a little bit, but then certainly have recovered.
david_1_11-07-2025_111017Well, what we know is momentum is the most prevalent factor. But that doesn't mean it's a factor that moves in a straight line. It ebbs and flows
ian_1_11-07-2025_121018yeah, I think that's a great way to put it.
david_1_11-07-2025_111017Does provide outsized returns, like it's an alpha generating factor, but you have to live with the beta. That's the result of that momentum. I mean, this is not a mystery, you know,
ian_1_11-07-2025_121018I think
david_1_11-07-2025_111017have a process for identifying trend? And right now, momentum's still in a trend. It's just in a counter trend. Short term move.
ian_1_11-07-2025_121018well, and so if we are having a shift in momentum, how quickly does that come to the surface too? In a lot of like an MTUM where they're only going to rebalance or reconcentrate every six months. Right? So if there is a shift, if there is a shift happening. Is an M-T-U-M-A great barometer of that
david_1_11-07-2025_111017Yeah, you're just saying because the, the rebalance and reconstitution happens so infrequently.
ian_1_11-07-2025_121018so infrequently would you be able to tell where the new. Areas of momentum are, I will tell you one chart that fascinates me is XTN. I think it's more of the equal weight transports. You can, I mean, sideways, very sideways in like a 10% range
david_1_11-07-2025_111017Yeah,
ian_1_11-07-2025_121018basically since. Early July right on top of a 200 day moving average. It's also right. Pretty flat, I guess would not be a surprise if it's been an 8% range for four months. I'll be very curious to see where that one goes. It's, it feels like it's set up for success. If I'm a trend follower course I can be wrong, but
david_1_11-07-2025_111017even more so, right? You're, you're cap weighted, same consolidation,
ian_1_11-07-2025_121018yeah.
david_1_11-07-2025_111017chewing through prior highs. And I, I think you bring up a good point, like this could be the bellwether to study. Like it's great to see financials hold up in this environment. It's even great to see staples hold up in this environment. will transports break higher out of this consolidation? And if not, that would be kind of a clue that maybe we are in the ninth inning of this bull market if
ian_1_11-07-2025_121018Yeah.
david_1_11-07-2025_111017pull this off.
ian_1_11-07-2025_121018Yeah. Can't be semiconductors for forever, but I guess it can, could keep doing that. Not the healthiest approach, but we can do that.
david_1_11-07-2025_111017So
ian_1_11-07-2025_121018know, maybe we get a little, a little new flavor for 2026.
david_1_11-07-2025_111017oh
ian_1_11-07-2025_121018I thought we were gonna get that this year with foreign stocks.
david_1_11-07-2025_111017Yeah.
ian_1_11-07-2025_121018I mean, and so, and some of them have, some of them have panned out, you know, nicer than others. Held up better. What do you think Japan steal is?
david_1_11-07-2025_111017Japan
ian_1_11-07-2025_121018I mean, it looks pretty good.
david_1_11-07-2025_111017looks great. I mean, I guess
ian_1_11-07-2025_121018Yeah,
david_1_11-07-2025_111017this.
ian_1_11-07-2025_121018it's had a lot of good last few months.
david_1_11-07-2025_111017But I mean, your same leaders are still there. Spain Poland obviously Africa and Peru
ian_1_11-07-2025_121018Yeah.
david_1_11-07-2025_111017back in with, with gold miners. do you think of gold miners and gold?
ian_1_11-07-2025_121018Well, we might get the dollar. I mean, I think the dollars at an interesting spot dollar index came up to the underside of 100 and that was like three, four days ago. So, and the 200 day moving average. Which is rolling over. So you could get that tailwind again. Gold miners. Yeah, I think they are I intriguing again on a relative basis if I use GDX. I mean, came back to what, 67 bucks on an absolute basis, which was the highs from September, 2011.
david_1_11-07-2025_111017Okay.
ian_1_11-07-2025_121018So I could, I mean, it's, it feels, It feels good. I mean, I feel like gold miners, you do kind of get some of the equity risk there, right? Because there are days when gold, I mean, if they wanna sell stocks, they will sell gold miners. They don't, it doesn't matter what gold's do,
david_1_11-07-2025_111017Right.
ian_1_11-07-2025_121018not just days, but weeks or periods like that. But yeah, if I, I think that they are. Gosh, I say setting up again. I mean, I act like they went through a 20% draw down or something. They definitely got hit, but to shorten my already long-winded answer. Yeah, I think they're coming back to, on both an absolute and relative basis. I think they're coming back to interesting spots. I thought maybe we had seen some gold euphoria. So I mean, if this is, I thought the correction would maybe last a longer, not saying it couldn't keep going, but from a, from a risk reward standpoint it would make sense. To own gold miners, whether you still own gold miners or haven't owned, if you haven't owned Gold miners yet we seem to be in a pretty big. Gold environment. Yeah. Maybe it's, it could be. Maybe we're not done. Maybe we're not done. I thought we might be done for a little bit, but
david_1_11-07-2025_111017Yeah, I think
ian_1_11-07-2025_121018Okay.
david_1_11-07-2025_111017it holding up well here, you know, if we're using GDX around 68 bucks is a, I could see that holding and moving higher. Especially when you just talked about, I think the trade weight to dollar thing is kind of a big deal this week, getting rejected at a falling 200 day and a area of polarity.
ian_1_11-07-2025_121018Yeah.
david_1_11-07-2025_111017provide a tailwind for stocks? I don't know. It didn't this week, right? It pulled back and stocks went with it.
ian_1_11-07-2025_121018Yeah. And bitcoin.
david_1_11-07-2025_111017Bitcoin trying to hold a hundred. I, I
ian_1_11-07-2025_121018that's, that's definitely a weird one. I mean, that thing just, that's a tough weekly chart if you're gonna be below 107,000, 108,000. I think that's a really tough chart. I know it clearly, I mean, a hundred, a hundred is an important level. I think it's a big psychological level, especially for that community. I think a hundred is a big deal. So getting to, I mean, it is getting to bounce there today. Dollars. Yeah, we'll see. Now with that said, a fail breakdown and a move back up above 1 0 8 and a 200 day moving average
david_1_11-07-2025_111017Be very bullish.
ian_1_11-07-2025_121018Yeah, was would certainly be something I would. That would make me perk up. A failed breakdown in what is, I mean, right. Grand context of this. I mean, we're still coming off the 2022 lows.$16,000 Bitcoin was$16,000. That seems wild. I can't believe it got that low.
david_1_11-07-2025_111017And
ian_1_11-07-2025_121018but yeah, so it's still very strong.
david_1_11-07-2025_111017ripple falls in the same category,
ian_1_11-07-2025_121018Yeah.
david_1_11-07-2025_111017meaning this, this level, near.$2 and 10 cents kind of big Ethereum, same deal, kind of an
ian_1_11-07-2025_121018Yeah.
david_1_11-07-2025_111017here. Trying to hold a 200 day, trying to hold this 30,$3,400 level kind of important. But it, it, you know, I think it was earlier this year, Ian, where we talked about. There was some negative breath going into like February, and we were wondering if there was gonna be some type of flush, it might even been into March, some type of flush to everything. And so I, my weight of evidence approach does start to go towards, we've had so much weakening breath underneath the surface. You haven't had necessarily major breakdowns in relationships of things like discretionary versus staples or high beta versus low vol. You're still seeing some strength out of financials that Was this a flush of the big tech down? cause again, I go back to, it wasn't like bullish percent was in the eighties or nineties, or even high seventies before this started.
ian_1_11-07-2025_121018That's true.
david_1_11-07-2025_111017Now markets can do what they want and I guess that would start below 65, 50 and 6,400 if we saw those, but things you'd be looking for, confirmation is stabilization of semiconductors here, ongoing outperformance of discretionary versus staples, the levels that we just talked about, maybe even some strength outta emerging markets in China. We,
ian_1_11-07-2025_121018It's a rough, rough week for high beta, low ball. I mean, it was looking really good. But yeah, rough candle. Now, of course you could say, well, Ian, we did that a month ago.
david_1_11-07-2025_111017mm-hmm.
ian_1_11-07-2025_121018It's still a very strong trend. I know you said discretionary staples. Yeah, I think as long as that breakout stays in that relationship, yeah, I think we're fine. There are definitely cracks. There are definitely cracks. I know we mentioned the Microsoft. Weirds me out. But then, I mean, they, those two, I mean them and Apple kind of do this song and dance where one sucks and then one's good and then the next six months is vice versa. Which is fine. That's fine.
david_1_11-07-2025_111017Sure this is all happening during the long longest government shutdown ever.
ian_1_11-07-2025_121018Yeah,
david_1_11-07-2025_111017Congratulations, everybody.
ian_1_11-07-2025_121018we made it.
david_1_11-07-2025_111017We made it well. Before we sign off, I should highlight the supporter of this podcast, the Adaptive Select ETF list on the New York Stock Exchange. Under ticker A DPV, which helps investors access two of the most prevalent factors in markets, and relative strength. Using proprietary identification methods, the Adaptive Select ETF attempts to own the strongest 25 large cap stocks is in an uptrend. And since not all market environments are the same, adaptive select seeks to prevent extended declines by moving your short term treasury bills and cash long term market downtrend. Investors can find out more including how to invest in A DPV by visiting adp v etf.com. 8 3 3 8 8 0 5 200. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principle distributed by Quasar Distributors, LLC. Anything else you want cover, Ian, before we wrap this one up?
ian_1_11-07-2025_121018I don't, yeah, certainly one of those periods where the broad market is hanging in there. But under the surface, the average stock pretty, pretty tough. And I would say for all of the, you know, orange or red flags that we've thrown out over the fir over the last month month and a half I do feel like this is the first week where price is kind of. As a trend follow it is starting to show up in, in the in the big indices. So we'll see.
david_1_11-07-2025_111017We will, we can only operate with the Data that we have. You know, we're below 67 50. We'd like to see that reclaimed. I gotta see what we do at 65 50 and maybe even 6,400 Russell two thousand's. Gotta get back above 2,400. We'd like to see semiconductors stabilize here, and if we wanna rotate into financials and things like that, that's fine. No big deal. But Veteran Veteran's Day is next week, Ian. And just wanna a moment and thank all those who have served our country, including our, our current servicemen and women who. Sacrifice and their families who sacrifice to keep us free. And so much love and appreciation for them, those who have served and those who are serving. Thank you so much.
ian_1_11-07-2025_121018Thank you very much for your service. I wanna echo that past and present and have a great weekend.