The Weekly Trend
The Weekly Trend
Episode 276: Deja Vu
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In this week's episode, David Zarling and Ian McMillan discuss market breadth and participation, areas of healthcare that have been holding up well, like biotech and pharmaceuticals. They also discuss whether the leadership from large cap tech and semiconductors is over, how software is at an interesting level, Michael Burry closing his fund, Bitcoin, and an update on fixed income.
Welcome back to the Weekly Trend Podcast. Today is Friday, November 14th, 2025 s and P 500, currently sitting at 6 7, 7 2. I'm David Darling. I'm here with Ian McMillan with a fresh beverage. Lots to cover this week.
ian_1_11-14-2025_123918I did have to grab a fresh beverage,
david_1_11-14-2025_113915What do you got?
ian_1_11-14-2025_123918a lot to cover. I guess where we
david_1_11-14-2025_113915Well, first and foremost, what?
ian_1_11-14-2025_123918Friday.
david_1_11-14-2025_113915What's your fresh beverage?
ian_1_11-14-2025_123918Cherry Coke.
david_1_11-14-2025_113915Yes, very nice, very underrated.
ian_1_11-14-2025_123918Yeah. Not as popular as it was like in the nineties. I feel like marketing hasn't been there. I think, I think, you know, there a better logo back then. Like, do you remember the, red and black Cherry Coke logo.
david_1_11-14-2025_113915yeah. Oh yeah.
ian_1_11-14-2025_123918It's kind of like a Darth Mall vibe.
david_1_11-14-2025_113915Okay. Go. Star Wars like it. New Star Wars.
ian_1_11-14-2025_123918Yeah. Like if, like, that's what the logo looked like anyways. Yeah. I mean, where we, we are, where we were last Friday.
david_1_11-14-2025_113915And last Friday we said we were on on some thin ice
ian_1_11-14-2025_123918Bounced
david_1_11-14-2025_113915bounce,
ian_1_11-14-2025_123918Was that during the podcast?
david_1_11-14-2025_113915Bounced after the podcast recording,
ian_1_11-14-2025_123918Okay.
david_1_11-14-2025_113915so we were on thin ice. Retesting that level again this Friday. So maybe we're gonna find out that the ice is thick there. Not actually thin.
ian_1_11-14-2025_123918Oh,
david_1_11-14-2025_113915mean, we'll, yeah, we'll see where we end up at the end of the day. But if we were to close where we are right now near this 67, 70 level, having tested the 65, 50 level twice last Friday and this Friday, and hold that, maybe that's actually proof of buyers being there.
ian_1_11-14-2025_123918Yeah, I don't really wanna test it at third. I hope we're not having the same conversation next Friday. You don't wanna test it too many times, but that's good. That's good that it's, yeah. It could be thick ice. Be solid for some ice fishing.
david_1_11-14-2025_113915Oh yes. Yeah. Well, and maybe speaking of that, are we gonna go to too many metaphors and analogies, but. Underneath the surface, there had been lack of fish, some breath deterioration, and here you can make the argument that,
ian_1_11-14-2025_123918You think it's improving?
david_1_11-14-2025_113915well, I think some of the really aggressive names, whether it was like Bitcoin mining or AI stocks.
ian_1_11-14-2025_123918Yeah, the quantum stuff. Quantum stuff got hit.
david_1_11-14-2025_113915You know, so some of that stuff catching down or even the fact that you could argue your fangs and your mags, your large cap tech caught down to the weak breath, I think is the, maybe the fairest way to say it,
ian_1_11-14-2025_123918Okay.
david_1_11-14-2025_113915and I'll go back to we were not. You know,'cause we've had weak breath from, I would say mid-December. Like when you look at bullish percent flipping to os, when you look at like percentage of stocks above a 50 or 200 day, you really start to see that deterioration in mid-September. And you saw tech go the opposite way. And now you're seeing that, when I say tech, I mean like semiconductors. Large cap tech. Did that just catch down? And we're gonna start to see a broadening out from here on out. I mean, time will tell. We can't say it on this episode whether that's the case or not. cause you still have to see prior highs reclaimed before you could say that. But it is interesting paying attention to what's happened since mid, mid September with the underneath, under the surface weakness. You know, semiconductors and tech were still fine during, from that point through now, but like energy and healthcare, biotech stocks, pharma stocks, holding up pretty good.
ian_1_11-14-2025_123918Yeah, biotech to be real nice. Another big candle well, we'll probably have a few. Bullish engulfing candles today if this holds. But biotech, yeah, continues to definitely be a leader. I mean, really didn't flinch at all during October. And it made a big, I mean, that was really, it made a big, big relative push bush over the course of October and into November. Which is why the realtor looks like today. So, I mean, probably a clue, like we say, right when the markets has like a red day and people are like, oh, you know, look at what was green, which I think is super valid. I mean, think of, I mean, when the market has a red month a stupid month, it's sideways and, you know, lots of big swings. Well, what's something that was steady and green? definitely have to give biotech a nod. There because it certainly has been pretty steady through all the noise,
david_1_11-14-2025_113915Yeah.
ian_1_11-14-2025_123918noise.
david_1_11-14-2025_113915Yeah, I think that's a fair.
ian_1_11-14-2025_123918Another
david_1_11-14-2025_113915A fair.
ian_1_11-14-2025_123918I think I, I mean, I put it in that now it's, I mean, I guess biotech's been strong for a bit. Holly, it just takes so much catch up on a relative basis. could put solar in that category
david_1_11-14-2025_113915Okay.
ian_1_11-14-2025_123918too. I mean pretty, so I mean, not that it doesn't have up and down days. I mean it had red days in October, but again, I mean I think a pretty good October especially. I mean it was strong before that on a relative basis, continued that through October has continued that in. Think I hit a little bit this week, but, it's a strong, I mean, it's kind of one of those areas too where you're like, Ugh, biotech, ugh, solar. Like, do I wanna, do I wanna do this? They've held in there.
david_1_11-14-2025_113915Well, another risk on areas, right? I don't, I don't think that those probably fall under the speculative risk on side of the spectrum of things. If you were to. Categorize things. I don't think you sit there and say, oh yeah, let's pile into biotech and solar stocks if the market's gonna tank. We'll see though, I mean, I don't think we're outta the woods by any means. I mean, it'd be really nice to hold this, you know, 66, 50, 66, you know, 6,600 on the s and p to prove, which just happens to be the point of control since the tariff tantrums, by the way. But it'd be really nice to hold this level to give us some more clear lines in the sand as far as where we're seeing buying, showing up. And do you think, so you think the tech and semiconductor thing is over? Is that done?
ian_1_11-14-2025_123918No, I hope not. No, I think it's done. I mean, it's still a good leader. XLK is still, I mean, if you look at SMH relative chart. It's actually like a perfect retest. I mean, you gotta do it here, but I think it's fine. Definitely still like the, so I mean, if you take an SW that never really got going. What's the other one you like? The other software IGV
david_1_11-14-2025_113915IG.
ian_1_11-14-2025_123918See that never really got, I mean I still put it in the mega cap, large cap category. I don't know, man.
david_1_11-14-2025_113915You, you bring up a, actually a,
ian_1_11-14-2025_123918tsm.
david_1_11-14-2025_113915you bring up a really good piece here though. So IGV software
ian_1_11-14-2025_123918Yeah.
david_1_11-14-2025_113915weeks since mid-September, but man, is it at a really interesting spot right now. Where if buyers prove themselves at this, using IGV 1 0 6 1 0 5, 1 0 6, right. We got the 200 day moving average. You've got the, the August lows you have the November and February November, 2024. February, 2025 highs. I could see software holding here.
ian_1_11-14-2025_123918What do you, what if like, what these ETFs could hear us talking to them, hear the things we say,
david_1_11-14-2025_113915I talk to them all the time.
ian_1_11-14-2025_123918they're like, you, I gotta do this. Like I've gotta do this for my shareholders. We're at the 200 day, it's time, like it's time to really suck up and get going.
david_1_11-14-2025_113915Yeah. Well that I talk, I talk, I talk to ETFs all the time. My wife's like, who are you talking to over there? I'm just talking to IGV. Don't worry about it. You gotta hold this. You gotta hold this buddy. You gotta hold 1 0 5. But I do think your, your point is just how software's been weak. But even, I mean, you look at software versus semiconductors and where that's sitting. You know, we're sitting at the June 24 lows, the May, 2002 lows. When you look at IGV versus s and p, I mean, we're at the April 20, 25 lows. I mean that this is a logical area. I don't know if you meant to bring up software, but this is a logical AR area where you could see software regain traction. I would say
ian_1_11-14-2025_123918You could, you could, could see a lot of things.
david_1_11-14-2025_113915you could, Ian. It is a market of stocks. We could see a lot of things happen, but really,
ian_1_11-14-2025_123918on the notes speaking of tech semi you have written down here, Nvidia has earnings next week,
david_1_11-14-2025_113915yeah. I think
ian_1_11-14-2025_123918so.
david_1_11-14-2025_113915I'm gonna sound dramatic, but I mean one of the largest components in the world across. Various ETFs that I talk to. I mean, Nvidia is the largest waiting in the s and p 500
ian_1_11-14-2025_123918I'll say this. If you, or like your wife has been wanting to do something like nice, expensive, maybe she's wanted like to go out to a real nice dinner, do it this weekend. Don't wait till after and video earnings. That's what I would, that's what
david_1_11-14-2025_113915too much. You're just saying the risk reward is, is the, the risk is too high.
ian_1_11-14-2025_123918Just if you gotta, if you gotta go out with a happy memory, do it this weekend because it, I mean, we could all blow up if Nvidia goes down.
david_1_11-14-2025_113915Yeah. Well, and it's all gonna be about price reaction, right? It's not about the.
ian_1_11-14-2025_123918you don't have to tell her it's because of that. Just say, you know what, babe? I've been thinking about it and. You really wanna check out this new steakhouse lately? We're gonna do it this weekend and she's going to love you. But you know, in the back of your mind, you're kind of hedging your bets because if Nvidia blows up, you don't, you don't have to worry about her asking about the steakhouse going forward. You've already checked that box.
david_1_11-14-2025_113915You're saying it's off the to-do list.
ian_1_11-14-2025_123918And if, and if Nvidia doesn't blow up. I mean, okay. Then dinner's basically been paid for, it's kind of a win-win mentally,
david_1_11-14-2025_113915We should start a, we should start a relationship podcast.
ian_1_11-14-2025_123918a financial therapy. How to, how to your marriage via the stock market.
david_1_11-14-2025_113915I did not think we would go there on the video, but I love it that we did
ian_1_11-14-2025_123918I
david_1_11-14-2025_113915and
ian_1_11-14-2025_123918that, I do think that, I mean, yeah, you should, or any other big purchases, like, I mean, don't buy a house, but anything because you're not gonna wanna do it next week if NVIDIA's down 7%.
david_1_11-14-2025_113915yeah, but it's an, it is an important component like.
ian_1_11-14-2025_123918super
david_1_11-14-2025_113915not gonna be what the earnings are, it's just gonna be what's the price reaction. And I will find it interesting.'cause we've seen a lot of big tech names lately report their Q4 earnings with negative price responses.
ian_1_11-14-2025_123918Yeah,
david_1_11-14-2025_113915So if, if Nvidia follows suit, that likely is gonna be really hard for the broad index like s and p right? Your star quarterback on the team if he is not performing. It's really gonna be hard for the team to succeed overall. Same thing if we have Nvidia doing that now. Also a scenario that could unfold. Great earnings, negative price response gets the bears maxed out super short, and that's when we base out and everything. That's the final flush. It's the final flush. We finally get a correction that's, you know, greater than 3%, I should say, since the tariff tantrum. Get a little bigger correction. Really flush the hands out, paper hands, and then things move higher. That's a possibility. I.
ian_1_11-14-2025_123918What do you think about? I mean, pretty pro, I would say pretty polarizing, dude. What do you think about Michael Burry closing up shop? Well.
david_1_11-14-2025_113915Yeah. Michael Burry, for those who don't know the, the enigmatic hedge fund manager of Scion Capital, a main character in the movie, the Big Short, which everybody loves to watch, and I feel like that's the only movie people have ever watched.
ian_1_11-14-2025_123918On finance. Yeah,
david_1_11-14-2025_113915Is lame because there's so many good ones.
ian_1_11-14-2025_123918I mean, I, I would even put, I mean, different type of movie, but like I would put, well, it's my number one finance movie, but trading places.
david_1_11-14-2025_113915Yep.
ian_1_11-14-2025_123918That's my favorite anyways. Yeah. Famous, right. So he is, I mean, I guess, I guess famous Bear. I mean, he's pretty negative. I would say a lot of the, like his, a lot of his stuff gets like, is like turned like a lot of stuff around him that was just like slop, like even recently they talked about his, like recent 13 f. And how many,
david_1_11-14-2025_113915How short he was on Nvidia and pal.
ian_1_11-14-2025_123918he was, but like, it's not, like, that's not true. Like as normal people don't know how to like actually look at a portfolio and anyways
david_1_11-14-2025_113915but he's, he's infamous for his housing short,
ian_1_11-14-2025_123918he's
david_1_11-14-2025_113915he got a big,
ian_1_11-14-2025_123918for, yeah. So
david_1_11-14-2025_113915his big payday and he's been, he's been bearish on,
ian_1_11-14-2025_123918bearish. Yeah.
david_1_11-14-2025_113915on AI and those things, and I totally get it. And now he closes his shop.
ian_1_11-14-2025_123918he's thrown in the towel.
david_1_11-14-2025_113915Now, I don't know if he's throwing in the towel personally. And my guess is he still has a bet on himself,
ian_1_11-14-2025_123918Yeah, I'm sure he still manages his own money.
david_1_11-14-2025_113915manages his own money, but he removed the outside money equation from it, which could be brilliant. But yeah, anytime a a, a notorious bear closes shop. You sit there and go, Hmm hmm.
ian_1_11-14-2025_123918he said he was like on the, on the bigger and better things. I don't know.
david_1_11-14-2025_113915But I mean, anytime a shop like that closes up, you, you just wonder. Hmm. Right. It's because bull market tops don't happen because you have a high quantity of people shorting. In fact that's just future fuel. It's when you run out of buying'cause fu put buying. All that is is future long buying of stocks just stacked firewood. And we remove the pile of firewood. It removes buyers and that's really how bull markets end is lack of buyers. Buyer exhaustion. Is Scion closing a sign of. This bull market being over? I don't know. We won't know that. And that's the hard part. Like people want to Oh, that. Are you making a call? I'm not making a call. I'm just saying Scion closing. We should sit up and take notice. But I'd also add on the flip side, it seems like all the major investment banks are putting out headlines about how retail investors should sell right now, like the tech run is over. Or even the Economist magazine with. A skier upside down in the snow with a chart on it of downward arrows. So there's both. There's both out there. You know, you don't typically see those type of magazine covers at tops or the headlines that we've seen out of, you know, investment banks, talking about how, you know, the corrections upon us. You know, we need to be careful. Retail should be selling. That's not typically the narrative you see out there. You know, like Wells Fargo says it's time to take tech profits off the table. I don't, you know, like I don't, you typically don't see that type of narrative or headline out there at the top,
ian_1_11-14-2025_123918I
david_1_11-14-2025_113915or we got a headline out there. We've never been so sure of an imminent financial crash. Industry leaders across all sectors come together to say, these signs of US economic meltdown are undeniable. And that's in the mail,
ian_1_11-14-2025_123918Undeniable bro.
david_1_11-14-2025_113915And that's from November 2nd.
ian_1_11-14-2025_123918Woo.
david_1_11-14-2025_113915So really that's how it works. All these headlines telling people, I don't, I've never seen it work that way. So it's interesting on, on the one hand you have a bear shop closing up and on the other hand you got media saying retail should sell. We'll see,
ian_1_11-14-2025_123918bitcoin's going down
david_1_11-14-2025_113915yeah, Bitcoin got hit.
ian_1_11-14-2025_123918below a
david_1_11-14-2025_113915do you think about crypto? What do you think about crypto?
ian_1_11-14-2025_123918It stinks.
david_1_11-14-2025_113915Not literally, just figuratively.
ian_1_11-14-2025_123918Yeah, I mean now, I mean, yeah, I Crypto and it's going up right now. I don't wanna own it.
david_1_11-14-2025_113915Yeah. All of them, right?
ian_1_11-14-2025_123918donezo maybe forever.
david_1_11-14-2025_113915Forever.
ian_1_11-14-2025_123918No,
david_1_11-14-2025_113915I mean, we are, we are in bear market territory since people like to use minus 20% as bear market.
ian_1_11-14-2025_123918you go.
david_1_11-14-2025_113915Bitcoin's down 20% since October.
ian_1_11-14-2025_123918Broken into rate of trend from last
david_1_11-14-2025_113915We. Below a 200 day below prior highs, not a great look.
ian_1_11-14-2025_123918I wouldn't be long.
david_1_11-14-2025_113915Yeah, I think it's, I think it's hands off for now and I do th I do think we're at an interesting spot, both stocks and crypto, where like, you're in that in between, right? You can be. So we, the long term uptrend for equities is still intact.
ian_1_11-14-2025_123918Yeah.
david_1_11-14-2025_113915You have a short term countertrend move with all sorts of weakness that already happened underneath the surface. It's also very hard to get short right here. Like you got the VIX above 20 and you're gonna get short. Then it's too late. So it is this InBetween, this weird InBetween spot where, believe it or not, these corrections within uptrends are perfectly normal, right? We get. Seven, 3% dips per year, and this would be our fourth one since the 20% pullback. Would you, would you consider, let me ask you this, would you consider the correction from February to April, 2025? 20%?
ian_1_11-14-2025_123918Yeah. Is it intraday, isn't it Technically 20%.
david_1_11-14-2025_113915Yeah. Intraday.
ian_1_11-14-2025_123918Yeah, I was looking at that earlier this week.
david_1_11-14-2025_113915So we've, we've had three. Do we get, do we get a 5% pullback? Do we get more weakness? I think it all depends on where we close today. You know, I, I, I do think Friday closing prices are important and if we can't hold last week, last week's lows, that would be, you know, you could see that we're having a 5% pullback. And that's just normal. That's a normal part of markets. But crypto's another world. I know alt coins have gotten hammered. The big boys, Bitcoin, Ethereum, ripple, have been weak even on a relative basis. You know, huge opportunity cost.
ian_1_11-14-2025_123918Yeah, ripple, not too hot. Solana looks pretty rough. Luckily. Head back down to the bottom of this range, 1 24.
david_1_11-14-2025_113915I think at this time I wanna highlight the supporter of this podcast, the Adaptive Select ETF, listed on the New York Stock Exchange under ticker A DPV, which helps investors access to the most prevalent factors in markets, momentum and relative strength using proprietary identification methods. The adaptive Select ETF attempts to own the strongest 25 large cap stocks when the market is in an uptrend. And since not all market environments are the same. Adaptive Select seeks to prevent extended declines by moving to short-term treasury bills and cash during long-term market. Downtrends investors can find out more including how to invest in A DPV by visiting ad pv etf.com or calling 1-833-880-FIVE 200. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. A DV is distributed by Quasar Distributors, LC. Where do you wanna take us next? Ian? We wanna talk. Stay on equities. We want to talk fixed income. Commodities, dollar.
ian_1_11-14-2025_123918is going on. Fixed income. I didn't even, I guess it's been kind of flat. Well, someone told me TLT had been getting hit. Yeah, look at that. Well, rates went straight up since they cut rates. How about that?
david_1_11-14-2025_113915Yeah. It's almost like the bond market knows better than Jerry.
ian_1_11-14-2025_123918Still below 200, day on 30 year. So maybe just retesting that. I don't know. We'll see. Hmm.
david_1_11-14-2025_113915I think right now fixed income, you've got kind of a mixed bag. You've got, on the one hand, you had convertibles breakdown this week. On the other hand, you've got emerging market bonds doing just fine. That's not risk off. You got junk bonds trying to hold it together kind of also at an important level for something like JNK gotta hold this 200 day and the$96 level on JNK. And we've seen triple C credit spreads rise since, you know, when you talk about underneath the surface. CCC credit spreads have been rising since September, so surprising, shocking. CCC credit spreads tightening lower liquidity weakness underneath the surface. A catch down this week. I think it's really important where we close today. I do.
ian_1_11-14-2025_123918I agree.
david_1_11-14-2025_113915Right. What else are Ian, before we wrap this one up and get it off to Kevin for.
ian_1_11-14-2025_123918I don't know anything going on overseas. I guess Brazil looks good. Argentina looks good. Again, it's kind of been consolidating lately, but the last couple weeks, but still really nothing from China.
david_1_11-14-2025_113915Spain, European financials, I mean.
ian_1_11-14-2025_123918Yeah, European financials look very good. Japan, continues to look good. Maybe that's more of the currency hedge stuff, but there's a lot of Japanese ETFs that,
david_1_11-14-2025_113915What about gold and gold miners? Where are you at on that?
ian_1_11-14-2025_123918Where am I on that? I don't know. It kind of feels. We went up like GDXJ went up, filled the gap from, well, not, I guess we went up to 1 0 1, 1 0 2 I, I mean still obviously still on an app end relative charts. Interesting.
david_1_11-14-2025_113915It is not like a slam dunk, is it?
ian_1_11-14-2025_123918No.
david_1_11-14-2025_113915You could see, you could see gold and gold miners moving higher. A lot I, I'm guessing some of it will depend on what we do with what, what the market does with the trade weighted dollar here, you know, DXY still below 100, still below a falling 200 day moving average. But if it breaks back above a hundred, you could see, you could see potentially some, a definite slowdown in consolidation in gold, priced in dollars for sure.
ian_1_11-14-2025_123918Yeah, yeah, I could see the dollar and it kind of looks like it might wanna go higher.
david_1_11-14-2025_113915It's a great thing about using price data. We can wait for next week for more information. Anything else, Ian, before we ask our listeners to give us a high ranking and. And share us out on their socials.
ian_1_11-14-2025_123918No, I think that's it.
david_1_11-14-2025_113915All right. Kind of a short one this week, and that's okay. Did you get through your cherry Coke yet?
ian_1_11-14-2025_123918I am close
david_1_11-14-2025_113915You're close. All right, then it is time to wrap it up. We appreciate everybody listening once again this week. Give us a high ranking on your platform, a choice, and spread the word it, it helps confirm that what we're. Putting out there is providing value to you. We appreciate it.
ian_1_11-14-2025_123918every great weekend everyone.