The Weekly Trend
The Weekly Trend
Episode 279: Floating Prison
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In this week's episode, David Zarling and Ian McMillan discuss if we are seeing rotation out of tech and growth areas of the market into value and small cap focused areas. They also discuss international areas that are holding up well, bitcoin, poor performance from the consumer staples sector, precious metals, and materials.
Welcome back to the Weekly Trend Podcast. Today is Friday December 12th, 2025 s and P 500, currently sitting at 68 39. I'm David Zarling. I'm here with Ian McMillan. Can't believe the year is almost over
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618We are almost over. We got like two weeks.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617crazy.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618Two weeks, closer to three, but yeah, that's that.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617You got your Christmas shopping done Or are you canceling Christmas?
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618whew. After a day like today, sometimes, I don't know, man.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617Okay.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618okay. It happens. It happens. Do I have no. I need to get on that this weekend.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617All right.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618I have some, I have some stuff.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617I have confidence in you.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618But probably, probably not where I should be at this point in the game. It's okay.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617I feel like it's like that every year.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618You can always pay for expedited shipping.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617True story. Just get it faster from Amazon.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618Yeah. They're implementing 30 day shipping or
david_1_12-12-2025_114617Hmm.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618minute shipping. I guess 30 day shipping wouldn't be too much of a.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617I was gonna say I was, I was gonna say, what, what kind of press release is this? Amazon do introduce 30 day shipping. Well, I don't know if that works
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618not not helping their stock price.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617when we're sitting, you know, when you look at the s and p 500. We're just a little bit below. Last week's close during the week. This week we had been to new highs from a really near term timeframe. Strong pullback today, but one day doesn't make a trend. What are you seeing out there? Like what are some, some things we want to touch base on for our listeners this week?
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618Yeah. So kind of a weird week overall. I mean, we're in a range.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617And that's what I love about markets is they're markets and I get along 'cause we're normally weird.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618That's I'm glad that you found a friend in the markets.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617Yep.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618always my friend. I mean, sometimes a lot friendlier to small caps. Don't say that too much on this podcast, but gotta give credit where credit is due. They were the first all time highs. They've held up pretty well. Everything kind of getting hit today, but small caps and on the flip side the weakness this week for sure, I would say over the last couple weeks. But, you know, the growth tech, all that type of stuff. Struggles. It's hard for me to say that it's over from a outperformance standpoint, but could be.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617Well, I do. I do think it's interesting. You know, you got industrial. Is making new all time highs, financials, making new all time highs, even European financials, making new all time highs. You mentioned small caps, gold making new all time highs.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618Silver,
david_1_12-12-2025_114617Silver,
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618not Bitcoin.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617not Bitcoin.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618Still struggling.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617Emphatic, no on that.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618Also range bound. I think it looks pretty weak. Looks kinda like we're setting up for another leg down, but we'll see. I still will be fascinating if that continues to fall. I think it'll be fascinating. I hope, I hope we're not let down. I hope the headlines are juicy.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617Oh, can you imagine the narrative if we,
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618if we find out Bitcoin was in the Epstein files?
david_1_12-12-2025_114617Ooh, that's crazy. Well, okay, so,
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618it'll be something like I don't know. I don't know what they'll come up with.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617so as a technician, if this countertrend slash consolidation from November to now is a flag,
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618or?
david_1_12-12-2025_114617a Bitcoin,
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618Okay.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617if that's a flag. In technical terms, we're measuring to 60,000,
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618Yeah, I think you could do that.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617which would be a a 50% correction. And the Bitcoin maxes would be like, yeah, I mean that's pretty normal. Like we, we have all these 50% corrections,
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618I am sure they'll be pretty chill about it.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617you know, who are you? You got paper hands. Are you weak? Can't hold on to Bitcoin for 50% correction. Now there's some, there's some truth in that, but I don't know why we gotta take that risk, especially if we're below the volume weighted average price since August of 2024, which is a huge level, a major low, and that volume weighted average price is 92,900. I don't know why
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618Yeah.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617you need, you feel the need to be involved in that, below that level. I'm with you. I think the narrative would get relatively loud if you're down at 50 to 60,000 on Bitcoin. Especially considering what precious metals are doing,
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618Yeah.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617you're, you're, you're an idiot if store of value is gold. But then you look at, you look at Bitcoin versus, or gold versus Bitcoin, and it's. It's looking pretty good.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618It is gold versus Bitcoin. I mean, you definitely wouldn't, you know, as of right now, you wouldn't wanna continue to be long gold, but if you're long gold, then you should actually be long silver. Based on that chart, you can't, it doesn't, you can't own gold. It is outperforming looks good. But then if you're gonna own silver, then maybe according to the charts, you should be, you should own silver minors. And if you're gonna own silver minors, maybe you should name Junior Silver Miners. I see there's so many, so many tiers. You can go, you can go down in the route of strength playbook.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617Yeah.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618really fascinating.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617Yeah. I like the way you're talking. You're just saying on the risk spec risk spectrum. If you're gonna see silver do well, if you're gonna see precious metals do well, silver's outperforming gold. If you're gonna see that continue, you see silver miners outperform silver. And if that's gonna continue, silver, junior silver miners versus regular silver miners outperform, perform. Is that what you're saying?
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618Yeah. Yeah.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617It's good. We got Materials overall, which gold miners fit into. I think it's fascinating to see Lindy, the largest weighting in XLB at almost 15%. If this is a false breakdown in Lindy, right? This level that it's at currently, which were the lows from May 24, Jan 25. April 25, if we reclaim those lows, and that's a false breakdown above, and we remain above four 12, man, what does that mean for materials overall? It's fascinating. And then you, and then you throw copper in there.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618Chopper looks good. VGK Europe would be at all time closing monthly highs right now. So you got Europe continue to grind. Its way higher. You know who really still stinks? China know
david_1_12-12-2025_114617Yeah.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618I don't do anything that chart. This chart does not. A relative chart has really gotten weak as everything else in the world has continued to move higher. And when I say everything else in the world, I mean that's kind of the case. Not that much sarcasm there a lot of stuff continue feel good even at Brazil participating. I got geeked outta that, but that's okay. It isn't a strong uptrend. Rel, I mean the relative chart, I mean, maybe we're getting, so is Q1 of this year, right? Q1 this year when foreign had good quarter and then kind of, I wouldn't say fizzled out. mean they did give some of it back. Kinda just kept up with the s and ps since August, but maybe, maybe we're setting up for another Q1 foreign equity outperformance. I now,
david_1_12-12-2025_114617I mean, when you, when you see things like Japans.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618yeah. Emerging markets I think look better than developed. So we'll see you think about energy.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617Ooh. Well, I've got lots of energy for this podcast, but I don't think that's what you're talking about.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618Yeah.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617Like X-L-X-L-E, like energy,
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618Yeah. Like a fi like five hour energy.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617energy drinks.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618Energy drinks. Yeah. XI mean.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617I'm not opposed to energy drinks, Ian, but when you look at XLE versus s and p,
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618Terrible.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617terrible and it, what I think is interesting about it is right, that was one of the top outperformers coming out of the COVID bottom into summer of 20, summer, fall of 2022. But it's been. An opportunity cost since then, and I would argue in a pretty controlled manner, like when you look at XLE versus s and p or energy versus s and p since then, pretty steadily falling relative 200 day falling price. Now, I guess if you were to just say on an absolute basis, there might be some pent up energy here. You know, if you're looking at something like XOM, the largest waiting, I mean that's on the ver
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618Needs to do it.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617we've been. Yeah, it's been in a range. Lemme put it this way. I feel a lot of the same vibes. And again, investing's not about feelings, I'm just reflecting what we're seeing in the price charts as technicians. That's what you do. ExxonMobil. This range from the beginning of 2023 on an absolute basis. If that were to break to the upside, I feel a lot similar to like JP Morgan is to the relative, relative s and p. And so I think some clues would be, 'cause I know we're gonna get into, into talking about growth versus value. If you're gonna see ExxonMobil breakout to new absolute highs. JP Morgan breakout to new, like 20 some year relative highs. Is that indicative of value carrying the ball forward versus growth? Time will tell, but it, you know, ExxonMobil hasn't done anything for three years.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618Hmm.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617If it does, I mean that to me. I look at ExxonMobil and if we're gonna look at energy broadly, ExxonMobil's gotta be, I need Pat Mahomes to be Pat Mahomes.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618Yeah, I definitely wanna see that moving higher. Another question yeah, I can pose it as a question. do find it interesting staples, Naples,
david_1_12-12-2025_114617Staples.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618what. What do you think about the fact that Staples, yes. Relative chart is doing, we wanted to, do I find it interesting that Staples is Staples the only sector below? It's absolute 200 A moving average? Yes, I believe so. I mean, materials was there on Monday, but. Staples looks terrible. No, we don't need it to look amazing. I just find it interesting. I don't necessarily have a a reason for that. I don't have any theories. I.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617Well, I think right as technicians, what you, if you want to see the bull market continue. The, the best environmental information would be staples participating to the upside on an absolute basis, but underperforming on a relative basis. And I think as long as XLP is holding 70, 75, 70 $6 from an absolute basis, and you're seeing it underperform, the s and p. That goes in the risk on bucket that goes in the bull market continuation bucket. I agree that the absolute chart's kind of a mess, but as long as above 75, 76,
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618WA that back. Walmart looks great. The rest of the top 10, I mean, look at Costco for Pete's sake. This thing
david_1_12-12-2025_114617well,
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618to be,
david_1_12-12-2025_114617it was the, it was a leader.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618Absolute beast for years and years and years and years and well, I mean, you know, we kind of did this, I guess this could be another 2021 to 2023. There's about an 18 month period there where, and consolidate quite nicely actually. So maybe we're
david_1_12-12-2025_114617Well,
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618again. That'd be cool. But I.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617what I love about being a technician. Is we can create any combinations that we want to analyze price and the interaction of supply and demand among market participants. And if you look at Walmart versus Costco, I think you've brought up a really good, interesting thing for this podcast and that's, we've broken the rate of trend in Walmart versus Costco that goes back to 2004.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618Wow.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617I don't know what the narrative is there. Right. 'cause I, when I think of Costco and Walmart, obviously I think about consumers and I think about Sam's Club, you know, our, I don't know what the narrative is here, and I actually don't really care. It's just, you've brought up a good point that Costco used to be a relative leader, and now it's Walmart.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618I can't even get cigarettes to go up. Cigarette stock look terrible. Well, they don't look terrible, but maybe, I mean, and maybe that's all it is. I mean, they're not, these things aren't at like all time lows. Like a Colgate, a Colgate poem, all of it's been in a drawdown since last September. think's up with that? It's just very, very, no one wants to own.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617I think it's risk on, I think, you know, if you're, everything's opportunity cost, right? I've got a dollar sitting on my desk, where do I put it to be a good steward and get return on my funds? Is it palm olive or is it aerospace or is it semiconductors or is it growth or is it value? That's really how investors need to be thinking is rather than narrative, is opportunity cost. And I think your Walmart thing is just a fascinating, we didn't even talk about this before getting on here, but look at Walmart versus Amazon. Is there a story coming for Walmart in the next. Six to 18 months, right? 'cause markets are future discounting mechanism. And I'm not on here recommending you go buy Wal Walmart. I'm just saying when you look at some of these relationships, you sit here and go, huh, there's a potential Walmart story here unfolding before us. 'cause now you're seeing Walmart outperform Costco and Amazon. That's an interesting.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618Walmart and Amazon have had the same return for the last eight years.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617Would you have guessed that? Would you have won that?
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618I would not have.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617Right. I think the, I think the other, the other relationship that I also would've in the same boat that you're talking about is we're 0.7% away from small caps outperforming.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618I don't know
david_1_12-12-2025_114617I know,
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618what we do.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617and I know you've got
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618I mean,
david_1_12-12-2025_114617you and
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618do what
david_1_12-12-2025_114617you and Russell 2000 kind of beef and I get it. But wouldn't that be something if.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618I'm ready, I'll do it. And it's not like I've never not given him the resources to go be something. I'm there, I support him. I
david_1_12-12-2025_114617Well and
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618I buy my little 5% position and I say, okay, I'm ready.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617well,
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618And then
david_1_12-12-2025_114617and
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618the one, he's the one that never. Follows through on his part of the bargain.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617so I think your skepticism is warranted because only twice. In the past 10 years has small caps outperformed the s and p on an annual basis, and because of that on a relative basis, again, opportunity cost negative 44%, negative 44% versus s and p.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618but then like if you look, so if you zoom out all the way to like IWM versus S and P. S-P-S-P-I, WM versus SPX could be the same for I-I-W-M-S-P-Y. Oops. Lemme see.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617I'm zoomed out. I'm out. I'm ready. I'm looking at, I'm looking, I'm actually looking. Can you believe this? I'm looking at annual, annual candles.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618Annual candles.
david_1_12-12-2025_11461712 month candles, and only twice in the last 10 years has IWM outperformed the s and p 500. And then the, the full-time effect of that is a 44% drawdown. Like if you've been invested in small caps, you've given up 40% of gains versus s and p.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618It's tough. I dunno, this could be it. When I look at a long term charm, I feel long term chart. I do feel, I don't know, this could also, I mean, are you gonna get a a v bottom off of a
david_1_12-12-2025_114617A 10 year correction. Yeah. I.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618Yeah. Even. I mean, but this is also where, the.com bubble here, 2000, early 2000. We'll have
david_1_12-12-2025_114617So yeah, we'll see. We, we'll, and that's the beauty of studying price and being Beijing statisticians, is you wait for the new information to come in. But I, I think the fact that you've got materials. Doing well, especially when you look at miners, industrials, new all time highs, financials, new, all time highs, which includes American Express, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, new all time highs, broker dealers, new all time highs, insurance, heck, even European financials, new, all time highs.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618Jets
david_1_12-12-2025_114617Jets Airlines, you know, we talked about that last week. They, they followed through this rule.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618looking good. Let's the transports end up holding up. I think we were talking about that. Yeah. I mean, yeah, they're IYT is.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617Looks good.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618As long as it's above 75 bucks. I guess you're pretty good
david_1_12-12-2025_114617You know, I,
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618on a pretty red day.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617I think.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618about cruise lines. I don't looked at cruise lines in a while. Not too hot. They
david_1_12-12-2025_114617Are you,
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618in the year.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617you ever done a cruise?
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618I have.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617I've never done one. I've never done one. I, I don't know how I feel about it.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618I've done about, I don't know, least 10.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617Wow. So then you like 'em.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618Well, I mean, only one was my choice to go on.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617You held hostage. Wait, you, you held hostage on the other.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618No. Yes, I did like that. Oh my God. I'm gonna get a text about this from my parents. Yes, I did enjoy them. But yeah, every spring break we went on a cruise growing up. This was like late nineties, early, not like, you know, this is not, I'm not going on nowadays. We don't need to get on that topic. You know, that's a pretty common v Those videos tend to float around the, the internet, I'm talking about like late nineties. Early two thousands. Peak America cruises. Yeah, they were pretty cool.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617Okay. That's awesome. I know Nana's listening. I know she's. Nana, I'm sorry if I caused any wedge between you and your son.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618you're killing my inheritance right now, so
david_1_12-12-2025_114617Well, I, I, I guess, I don't know. I, so, so I gotta confess. I also had never been to Disney before, and this was like, I don't know, seven years ago. I was a skeptic. Went there. Amazing.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618You
david_1_12-12-2025_114617Now, yeah, now I don't know what they're like. I would, I'd be definitely be open to it.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618Okay.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617My kids are older now,
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618What if your kids were
david_1_12-12-2025_114617but
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618that you
david_1_12-12-2025_114617Yes. Yeah, I would, I would, I would try it now. I mean, the stock chart's got me sketched. I mean, I'd be like, huh, I wonder what's going on there. But
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618Do you don't, you don't buy products from companies whose charts are on a downtrend.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617yeah, I do not get the COVID shot. We'll, not,
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618What
david_1_12-12-2025_114617do it.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618what if that was a, a belief that people had before they bought your product?
david_1_12-12-2025_114617Look at the stock.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618is below 200 day, Hmm. Can't do it.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617Mm-hmm. I mean, Moderna and Pfizer
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618Imagine
david_1_12-12-2025_114617themselves.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618Yeah, Starbucks is below 200 day. Imagine all the women that would be, and men, I, I'm not trying to be a sexist Yes, men drink Starbucks. I'm just saying their target market is women. But yeah, below 200 day you can't get your coffee
david_1_12-12-2025_114617Yeah. Might be a thing.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618and then you wanna go to the local small business coffee. Well, they don't have a stock, I'd have to say, can you ask them for a stock chart?
david_1_12-12-2025_114617Could you show me your price chart please? It's like the inverse of what, I can't remember who, what, which major investor was like that. You should invest in things that you know you own. I think you should invest in the charts that you own.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618Yeah,
david_1_12-12-2025_114617Like, invest in the things that, you know, the charts that, you know, invest in those, the products that, you know, I'm not sure.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618what am I gonna do with semiconductors, Dave? Am I
david_1_12-12-2025_114617What are we gonna,
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618semiconductor chips and stock 'em in my storage? don't know, Kate, Dave said I should buy these.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617yeah. Why, why is our garage a data center? Why, why do we have so many blackwells in here? Now if your wife knows what a Blackwell is, I'm, she needs, she needs a better Christmas present.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618I don't think she does.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617That's fair. But I, in a roundabout way, I dunno how we got here. I would be open to trying a cruise. 'cause I've never done one, so how can I have an opinion? But I've always thought to myself a big city.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618it's so human. You, you're not human if you don't have opinions on things that you've never tried.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617Oh, I should have an opinion about everything.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618Oh, yeah.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617There's only correct opinions in their mind. I just never been like, oh yeah, I'm super stoked to be on a floating city in the middle of the water
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618I mean,
david_1_12-12-2025_114617captive.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618dude. I mean, they are cool. I mean, yeah, like my, my memories of cruises are pretty cool. Pretty chill. Especially as a kid. There's so much kid stuff to do and other kids to play with. Like, I don't know if your kids now would enjoy it, like teens. I mean, yeah, there's like teen stuff to do.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617I mean, because if you didn't have like the water slides.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618You do
david_1_12-12-2025_114617buffets.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618Do the excursions
david_1_12-12-2025_114617There's an excursion on a cruise boat.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618well, yeah, that's what you, when you ski at the ports, that's,
david_1_12-12-2025_114617At the port,
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618yeah.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617but it's the in between part that bothers me. It's the in between. Like I'm basically, I'm basically on a.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618you get the you get the alcohol card. So unlimited alcohol. It used to be like 50 bucks. I don't know. It's probably insanely expensive now. For the whole week.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617So as a kid you had an alcohol card.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618No, they, I had a Coke card. I.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617Oh, nice.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618Yeah, unlimited Cherry Cokes, Shirley Temples all week. I mean, come on.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617Done.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618For like 25 bucks.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617Now I know why you like cruises.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618And then you get the alcohol card and you just chill. Plus there's like free entertainment. There's like rated R enter comedians and stuff.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617Okay,
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618Yeah, I mean they, and then there's like, there's lots of stuff, sports bars. Always games going on. Like you can go play bingo or you can,
david_1_12-12-2025_114617so.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618know.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617What I say next is gonna be completely unfair if it wasn't for the alcohol card, the buffet,
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618Yeah. The buffet,
david_1_12-12-2025_114617the, and the distracting entertainment. I'm basically on a prison ship 'cause I can't get off the thing
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618No, you probably don't wanna get off. Could get off. I mean, you can get off.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617But it might be a not great.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618I wouldn't suggest it.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617I'm kind of a busy body, so that that's the part. It, it's really about, it's not me.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618Like do you get, or do you, are you the
david_1_12-12-2025_114617No,
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618has to wear like a patch?
david_1_12-12-2025_114617no. It's just like if I want to go to the, if I want to go to the next town, I'm gonna, I'm gonna go to the next town. You can't really go to the next town on a cruise ship. So it's really, it's my fault. It's not the cruise ships like they're doing their job. It's just me with the idea of being on a floating city that I can't leave. It's kinda like I love to visit New York, but if you told me I couldn't leave, I don't know if I'd be down with it, but I suppose if New York stopped at a couple Caribbean beaches, I'm cool. So I, I probably should just try it so I don't not be such a pansy about it.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618I'd just like to I'm gonna segue into a shout. If you're still listening to the podcast, you haven't turned this off yet. I re like and I both really appreciate that We are, we're about to get back on track,
david_1_12-12-2025_114617Who we are. Okay. Speaking. How about this segue? Speaking of cruise ships, how about Japan? New all time highs?
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618Like in the.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617Yeah,
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618Actually dollar weight's probably even looking better now. Yeah. Nik?
david_1_12-12-2025_114617looks good. European financials, new, all time highs. What do you think about Latin America?
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618Mexico, I was
david_1_12-12-2025_114617Peru,
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618yesterday.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617Argentina, Mexico.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618I mean Mexico, it's not at all time highs, but it's at. Like 11 year highs,
david_1_12-12-2025_114617Well, Peru makes sense that it's doing what it's doing. 'cause you know, it's heavily weighted towards metals and mining. So I think
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618no Venezuela funds. Hmm.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617interesting
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618Probably would be in a downtrend.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617probably
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618No. El Salvador funds. Yes. There's gotta be.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617I'm not seeing any.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618Wow. What about Argentina? Because that got hit and then popped back up. Yeah.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617Yeah, I think, I think Argentina, you know, near all time highs on a relative basis continues to, to hold up pretty good at a pretty important level. We had this island reversal back in September. I think that's significant. Peru, Chile. You mentioned Mexico Brazil kind of setting up here. Not too chef. Yeah. It made me sound like I knew what I was talking about. Brazil, Chile.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618you might be 10% Portuguese.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617Well, it's my red hair. Everybody knows this. You mentioned small caps. I find the mega cap versus micro cap chart. Interesting. So MGC
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618Yeah.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617mega caps versus micro caps.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618Doesn't that look like that trend's over for a bit?
david_1_12-12-2025_114617Yeah. I mean, could you, could you see a 2026 where it's value in small?
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618Okay.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617I could.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618So is this gonna be under performance or are we still so waited to like, oh God, if tech goes down, it all goes down.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617Yeah. Right. Your basic question is if, if tech is going down, is the bull market over or is it rotation into value and small?
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618On a
david_1_12-12-2025_114617That's a, that's a great question and my answer,
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618Basis then. Yeah. That's probably not great.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617my answer is, you know, if you've got small caps going out to new all time highs. That's probably rotation.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618RSPs looking? RSPs already at all time highs?
david_1_12-12-2025_114617Yeah, and that's before the s and p 500.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618Yeah. Yeah. I mean, how.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617Even E-E-Q-A-L, equal weight. Russell 1000 new all time highs. So rotation. Rotation to the rest of the team rather than Pat Mahome. It's the other part of the team that's performing. That's not a bad thing.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618New York stock, NY se composite time highs.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617Dow Jones All time highs.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618Wow. S and p and nasdaq. Let's do it. Let's have a whole 12 months of.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617Differentiation.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618It'd be cool. It'd be cool.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617Alright, let's talk bonds and interest rates.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618Oh man. Well, I keep hearing about a rate cut. Did we get a rate cut yesterday?
david_1_12-12-2025_114617Yeah, it was one of these days. There was a day where Jerry was talking.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618Wednesday. So that's it. It's Friday, Wednesday. Rate cut. We've had like three of 'em, I think since September and our rates
david_1_12-12-2025_11461720
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618straight up. Well, not straight up, but they are significantly higher than, I'll say this. We're back to where we were in early September with 30 year treasury yields.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617right. So the, the bond market is zigging while Jerry is zagging. It's gonna be interesting to see how that plays out.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618TLT still getting hit, so.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617And I would say junk bonds versus intermediate bonds, still holding up local currency, emerging market bonds, doing well, that's risk on even convertible bonds. So these are risk on for fixed income and all the things that we mentioned, reaching new all time highs. So just because tech, you know, doesn't carry the bag, carry the ball here, doesn't mean the other things aren't doing well. And we still have the dollar below a hundred and a 200 day moving average.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618Yeah, dollar definitely. Falling, doing what you would want it to do, I guess. Down to 98 96, I assume. And there's not much between 96 and 89. So if we were to get through that yeah, so I guess it's so far. We're gonna chalk this up to falling dollars. Good for stocks. I think that's kind of what, the environment we've been in since January. I mean, dollar, dollar index peaked early January, up around one 10. Like I said, we're sitting around 98, got down to 96.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617It would not surprise me
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618far, I guess we're saying this is good for stocks subject to change at any moment though.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617when I think, you know, when you look at. Something like vu. So international stocks minus US stocks versus US stocks. The fact that it's the, the fact that it's holding up this well, I mean, if you were to see, you know, international and value and small outperform in 2026, this is what it would start to look like.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618Yeah.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617So in 2023, a little over 25% of stocks in the s and p 500 outperformed the index. In 2024, it was about 30% in 2025, we're currently at about 37% of. Stocks within the s and p 500 outperforming the index. So think about that. That means 63% of stocks in the s and p are underperforming the index. Do we finally get a year, like 2021 or 2020 where the majority of stocks are outperforming the index, which opens up all sorts of thesis Then that. This is actually the start of a new bull leg rather than the end of a bull leg, if you see that.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618That'd be sweet.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617But if you're, if you're gonna see small caps outperform, if you're gonna see international perform, that's indicative of the first leg of a bull market, rather than late time will tell. And it probably would be important for me. To highlight the support of this podcast, the adaptive select ETF, listed on the New York Stock Exchange under ticker A DPV, which helps investors access to the most prevalent factors in markets, momentum and relative strength using proprietary identification methods. The adaptive Select ETF attempts to own the strongest 25 large cap stocks when the market is in uptrend. And since not all market environments are the same, adaptive select seeks to prevent extended declines by moving to short-term treasury bills and cash during long-term market Downtrends. Investors can find out more including how to invest in A DPV by visiting ad pv etf.com or calling 1-833-880-FIVE 200. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal ABVs distributor by Quasar Distributors LLC. We covered a lot of ground, Ian, including floating cities that are prisons with buffets and entertainment. Anything else you wanna cover? We ask our listen to give us a high ranking and share us on their platform of choice.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618I don't just, yeah. Interesting week. Overall, average stocks, the average stock continues to, let's say, do better under the surface. Yeah. I mean, and Russell, Russell, at all time highs. Not a lot to be too spooked about right now. Which Bos? Well, I mean, I think that kind of puts the right weird, I don't know. Breath was a little weird there for a couple months. As has been the case, nothing really came of that as far as major drawdown in the market. I. Say that's been, I mean, R-S-P-I-W-M, Dow NYA, hard to be bearish. Yeah. What's that look like?
david_1_12-12-2025_114617Yeah, we got, we got column X's
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618Okay.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617affirmation of breadth expansion
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618What, like what is the number?
david_1_12-12-2025_114617in the mid fifties.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618Okay,
david_1_12-12-2025_114617So middle of the field heading, hopefully heading towards the end zone if you want stocks to go up.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618but not too far. Not too far. We don't wanna get to like 82.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617Yeah, we don't get eighties and nineties, eighties and nineties. Probably exhausted the, the breath expansion.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618got a long way to go. What you're saying.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617I do.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618like we're getting X, we're back in X and we're at 73.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617Right. And that's, that's the thing, like a lot of these things that we just talked about today in this episode is it kind of points to early stages of another leg, but that's kind of hard to believe, right? That's probably the, not the consensus out there.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618That would be tough. So we're at what we're gonna go, how many straight years of 20% returns will this be? Let's say if we close today, obviously now you said earlier we're 16% on the year
david_1_12-12-2025_114617For s and p.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618for s and p pre S, so probably not gonna get, I guess so s and p total returns gonna be like 18. I mean, maybe you could get two more percent in 18 days. I don't know, but another good year so far, so I, I still hear a lot of, I still hear a lot of, I can't, you know, like when are we gonna get a bear market? I can't believe we haven't gotten a bear market still a lot. I still think that there's a lot, the bear, like a bear market has to be 2008. I think that is a really big mantra amongst people my age.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617Yeah.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618has to be, 'cause that's what a lot of them, I mean, I remember it too.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617How quickly, how quickly people forget that it was
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618Yeah. I
david_1_12-12-2025_1146172022 and 23. We had a almost 30% correction. And even earlier this year, you know, mar people forget that March and April was a minus 20% correction.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618intraday. I think we got, I'm pretty sure we got the 20.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617Yep. So we've had, we've had two bear markets. In the last five years.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618Well, COVID COVID, if you include COVID three.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617And if you include 2018, that's four. That's four. That's four in seven years. Four minus 20 plus percent corrections in four years. Definitely not the easiest markets, but I don't think we get to sit here and say, well, when's the bear market gonna happen? We'll do even study charts.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618Yeah, I
david_1_12-12-2025_114617Do you even use price or just using your
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618do.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617brain and watching
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618Do you
david_1_12-12-2025_114617CNBC and yeah, do you even use a chart? So wrap it. We're, you know, we're gonna have another two, two weeks, a little bit more than that for the end of the year here. We'll see how we end up, but. Even though tech's, you know, I guess you could say that's a shot across the warning bowel. Like if tech's not gonna hold up, but if we're gonna rotate into industrial's, financials, local emerging market bond debt, I think that's pretty indicative of risk on. And so you gotta err on the side of the bull market continuing.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618I agree. I.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617Well, thanks for being on here again. We'll be back again next week. We ask everybody listening to this to share it and give us a high ranking on your platform of choice. It's a great compliment to us and we appreciate it.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618Have a great weekend everyone.