The Weekly Trend
The Weekly Trend
Episode 280: Elf on the Shelf
In this week's episode, David Zarling and Ian McMillan discuss growth versus value, high beta versus low volatility, market cap relative relationships, and other risk-on/risk-off relationships to close out the year and what might be in store in 2026. They also discuss international equities, Bitcoin, and how interest rates continue to appreciate against Fed rate cuts.
Welcome back to the Weekly Trend Podcast. Today is Friday, December 19th, 2025 s and P 500, currently sitting at 68 34. I'm David Zarling. I'm here with Ian McMillan. We got Christmas next week. You ready to go.
ian_1_12-19-2025_122206:I guess so I did have to I had to spend$35 for some express shipping for my wife.
david_1_12-19-2025_112210:Oh,
ian_1_12-19-2025_122206:but yeah, I think we're good to go now.
david_1_12-19-2025_112210:okay. Are you an Elf on the shelf family?
ian_1_12-19-2025_122206:We're not.
david_1_12-19-2025_112210:Yeah, we aren't either, and I don't know when that was invented. We know a couple. It's an interesting way to go about things.
ian_1_12-19-2025_122206:Yeah, I don't know if it's too late to start for like the 6-year-old. It would be good for our 2-year-old, I'm sure. But
david_1_12-19-2025_112210:Yeah,
ian_1_12-19-2025_122206:no, we I think that's passed us though. I think that's passed us by. And that's okay.
david_1_12-19-2025_112210:it is.
ian_1_12-19-2025_122206:We didn't jump on that. I mean, we can start it. Do you think your two youngest would fall for it?
david_1_12-19-2025_112210:I'll try it. I'll try it. I'll try it for all of'em. I'll see if, I'll see if the 21-year-old buys it to Whoa, elf. Elf on the shelf.
ian_1_12-19-2025_122206:Yeah. He made that mess in the kitchen counter. I.
david_1_12-19-2025_112210:Yeah. Why does he have to be mischievous? Like are our wives not stressed out enough during Christmas that we have to add a mischievous
ian_1_12-19-2025_122206:What if he did like really helpful stuff,
david_1_12-19-2025_112210:Hmm.
ian_1_12-19-2025_122206:like he did the dishes
david_1_12-19-2025_112210:I like that we call it the gnome at home. Like
ian_1_12-19-2025_122206:or the
david_1_12-19-2025_112210:Elf on Is, elf on the shelf is just a jerk. The gnome at home is helpful. Hmm.
ian_1_12-19-2025_122206:I think, they call it the winch on a bench that the Oh, we just, we're not gonna go there. We're not gonna go there.
david_1_12-19-2025_112210:dunno. I dunno that one, but
ian_1_12-19-2025_122206:That's a thing. I've seen it in stores.
david_1_12-19-2025_112210:really
ian_1_12-19-2025_122206:making this up.
david_1_12-19-2025_112210:Okay.
ian_1_12-19-2025_122206:Winch on a bench.
david_1_12-19-2025_112210:In trouble, you googling.
ian_1_12-19-2025_122206:Yeah, a Mensch on Mensch on a bench. On a bench. I'm sorry
david_1_12-19-2025_112210:And it, that's a Christmas thing.
ian_1_12-19-2025_122206:it's not a Christmas thing.
david_1_12-19-2025_112210:Oh,
ian_1_12-19-2025_122206:It's a different religion.
david_1_12-19-2025_112210:got it. Oh, really? That's their, like, that's the,
ian_1_12-19-2025_122206:Yeah. They had to have something, man. They had to have something.
david_1_12-19-2025_112210:that's the Hanukkah version of Elf. On a shelf bench.
ian_1_12-19-2025_122206:Yeah.
david_1_12-19-2025_112210:okay. Hmm. Interesting. I learn something new every day. I had not heard of this one. Before, but we're not gonna, we gotta, we have to provide our listeners with
ian_1_12-19-2025_122206:Yeah, we
david_1_12-19-2025_112210:week
ian_1_12-19-2025_122206:get off that.
david_1_12-19-2025_112210:Well, and we, got, we're gonna take next week off for Christmas, so we gotta give'em I'm okay that we went there. I mean, gotta give a full, full episode. But we've had a, a nice recovery in the market this week. We're, you know, days away from the Santa Claus rally period starting the, incorrect way to think about SA Santa Claus rally is just thinking about December. how it works. Santa Claus rally period is the last five trading days of the year plus the first two of next year. So that'll be starting next week and we'll see if we get a positive result during that period or not. But we're almost to the end of 20, 25, maybe a year known for silver and gold.
ian_1_12-19-2025_122206:Yeah, I assume that those, I mean, if someone showed me year to date asset returns, I assume those would be the top two.
david_1_12-19-2025_112210:Yeah, they're gonna be up there. I mean, they really haven't,
ian_1_12-19-2025_122206:Is that,
david_1_12-19-2025_112210:back.
ian_1_12-19-2025_122206:dollar Dollar still going down? It's up a little bit this week.
david_1_12-19-2025_112210:Yeah. Silver. Silver, up about 120, 130%. the year.
ian_1_12-19-2025_122206:That's more than stocks.
david_1_12-19-2025_112210:Year, yep. More than Bitcoin
ian_1_12-19-2025_122206:Ooh, Bitcoin.
david_1_12-19-2025_112210:gold. Up about Up about 67%. I know the kids will love that. So I mean, to argue with those moves for the year. Where would you like to take us? What do you want to cover? I mean, we've got s and p 500 reclaiming important levels.
ian_1_12-19-2025_122206:do we think about that? I mean, so re so we're gonna end up It was a, it was a green week. We're back to where we were last Thursday. But last Friday was week Wednesday was a little suspect. But we've recovered that above what we're back above 6,800.
david_1_12-19-2025_112210:Right, volume weighted average price from the November low back above the volume weighted average price from all time highs using the s and p 500. Was that a bear trap? Don't know. We'll see what next week brings and we gotta close today. I mean, we're still a few hours from
ian_1_12-19-2025_122206:That's true.
david_1_12-19-2025_112210:close. But I think we now know that 65 50 on the s and p 500, that's where we bottomed in October and November. That's where supply and demand dynamics change. I mean, that's why we use charts. We can see that. And so as long as we're above those levels makes sense that we've consolidated here. Hasn't been easy. You know, choppy markets aren't necessarily easy. And does it feel like yesterday that we had the tariff tantrum, that we had a 20% correction this year? Does it feel that way? Where do you think investors are on this? You think there are still in disbelief on that re on this recovery that we've had the April lows.
ian_1_12-19-2025_122206:Ali, it feels like it was six years ago to me. Yeah, we recovered quite there's another v bottom, another year with another vbo. Might get one, probably get one next year at this rate. We should, should we expect to get one next year.
david_1_12-19-2025_112210:I dunno, is that the trend be, could be that B bottoms are the trend.
ian_1_12-19-2025_122206:I mean, we are so, and there was some nasty that was, I mean, you get to Fri April 4th and you showed people that chart and said, yeah, we're gonna recover all of that.
david_1_12-19-2025_112210:Plus some.
ian_1_12-19-2025_122206:We're gonna be all time, then we're just gonna keep going.
david_1_12-19-2025_112210:Market doing its job, but I think, I think 65 50 is important. If you use the Qs, QQQ 5 84 is important and you still have risk on areas leading, whether it's biotech or aerospace, I mean. Aerospace at new all time highs on absolute relative basis using R-O-K-T-E-T-F, that's aerospace centric.
ian_1_12-19-2025_122206:Man. What do you think on what do you think on, what do you think about the NASDAQ
david_1_12-19-2025_112210:Are you using QS or are you straight up?
ian_1_12-19-2025_122206:cues? I. You think about tech, you think we're going back? You think we're going back to growth
david_1_12-19-2025_112210:Hmm.
ian_1_12-19-2025_122206:and mega caps?
david_1_12-19-2025_112210:good thing. We've got charts to use. I mean, growth versus value using Spy G and Spy V been corrective since September.
ian_1_12-19-2025_122206:Yeah. Yeah. It makes it, yeah. That's a tough one.
david_1_12-19-2025_112210:rising 200 day though near term sequence of. Lower highs and lower lows. However, big picture, higher highs and higher lows. So growth versus value, definitely. Corrective, term, uptrend, long term tend to defer to the primary trend, the long-term trend, but. To your point, I think when you see things like financials doing really well, industrials trying to pick up, maybe there's a case for value going into 2026. This is like the third year in a row where we're not gonna have a, a tremendous amount of stocks that outperform the s and p. And you just wonder if 2026, it's gonna.
ian_1_12-19-2025_122206:How many, how many have outperformed so far this year? Do you have,
david_1_12-19-2025_112210:Well, I know we covered this last week, but I, I think it was about 38%
ian_1_12-19-2025_122206:Hmm.
david_1_12-19-2025_112210:of the s and p has outperformed the s and p. That means 62% have underperformed the s and p stocks within the s and p. So it does make you wonder if. We're gonna see greater participation in stocks and the s and p do better.
ian_1_12-19-2025_122206:Maybe that's the new normal.
david_1_12-19-2025_112210:Could we? I mean, when you do have the magnificent seven doing what they're, what it's doing, I
ian_1_12-19-2025_122206:Yeah, I wonder if we did a hard reset to I don't know, because we, I mean the, the value small caps, all this stuff, it may, I mean, it makes its attempts never. Can quite do it. Not saying that that's what's happening on this latest attempt of outperformance attempt at outperformance from those areas, but it is a behemoth cap weighted indices, man. And I think RSP looks pretty good.
david_1_12-19-2025_112210:Yeah, equal weighted s and p
ian_1_12-19-2025_122206:Then, you know, the relative chart.
david_1_12-19-2025_112210:not as great.
ian_1_12-19-2025_122206:Yeah. Leaves a little bit to be desired, but it is holding up good.
david_1_12-19-2025_112210:it's almost like the momentum factor has meaning.
ian_1_12-19-2025_122206:It's very, very hard to stop that. Train once it's rolling. Speaking of momentum, having a nice day today. MTUM,
david_1_12-19-2025_112210:Yeah.
ian_1_12-19-2025_122206:like that.
david_1_12-19-2025_112210:and P Momentum, Even the supporter of this podcast, the Adaptive Select ETF. This would be a good segue to highlight them. Adaptive Select is listed on the New York Stock Exchange under ticker A DPV, which helps investors access to the most prevalent factors in markets, momentum and relative strength using proprietary identification methods. The adapt to select ETF attempts to own the strongest 25 large cap stocks. The market is in an uptrend, and since not all market environments are the same, adaptive select seeks to prevent extended declines by moving to short-term treasury bills and cash long-term market. Down Downtrends investors can find out more including how to invest in AD PV by visiting ad PV etf.com or calling 1-833-880-FIVE 200. involves a risk including possible loss of principle. ADB is distributed by Quasar Distributors, LLC. I think your point's a valid one that, during this November correction moment, momentum was underperforming, but it is one of the most prevalent factors in markets. And are we gonna see a return to that? And as it just so happened that was in growth, could you see momentum in value? You could.
ian_1_12-19-2025_122206:Okay.
david_1_12-19-2025_112210:Definitely possible.
ian_1_12-19-2025_122206:You like anything outside the us?
david_1_12-19-2025_112210:Yeah, I think, I think it's interesting how, you know, emerging markets was setting up
ian_1_12-19-2025_122206:Yeah.
david_1_12-19-2025_112210:and that it didn't really quite pan out. I would even say like Brazil, I just wanted to say that word. And some of the Latin American names, Peru looks good obviously'cause it's heavily. Precious metal mining, weighted. But there's still some things, whether you're looking at Austria, Spain, European financials, like if, if European financials continue to go out at new all time highs, how, how bearish can we really be? Even Argentina or, or currency hedge Japan.
ian_1_12-19-2025_122206:No, I, I a hundred percent agree. I mean, you would think now maybe, maybe that's Bitcoin. I mean, we did discuss this last week. Bitcoin usually seen as like a leading indicator. I would say risk on, risk off. Now there's periods where that's not always the case. And Bitcoin can have a, a bad year and stocks can have a good year and, but overall I would say the uptrends are pretty. But you know, everything else has recovered. The things you mentioned continue to stay very strong. I don't know what European financials are doing, but you know, I would add that to, I mean, there you go. More all time highs today. I yeah, hard to be bearish and maybe. Continue evidence that Bitcoin's just got its own issues going on. Maybe, I don't know. It hasn't affect, hasn't affected many other assets yet, though
david_1_12-19-2025_112210:Right.
ian_1_12-19-2025_122206:I feel like four or five years ago, or even a few years ago, Bitcoin being down 40% or whatever, it's 30%. Everyone's just kind of shrugged at it, shrugged it, shrugged it off, and I don't know.
david_1_12-19-2025_112210:You are just saying that previously highly correlated risk
ian_1_12-19-2025_122206:Yeah, especially from like a, I would say at least from a sentiment gauge, nothing, nothing really. Not that impressive this week. I mean, it's been sideways for a month. I wouldn't say really participating in any rallies that stocks have seen.
david_1_12-19-2025_112210:Well, and that's why each chart has to be taken on its own merit, right? There are things going in and outta correlation and. Can Bitcoin go go to 50,000 and equities continue to move higher? not? Who are we to tell the market what to do?
ian_1_12-19-2025_122206:Well, right. And I'm sure there was, you know, Bitcoin below 107,000. So that was back in early November. Right. I mean, that's kind of makes you sit up and say, okay, are we gonna go into. A risk on environment. And, you know, stocks are not saying they've gone up in a straight line, but they're green. They're green since early November, and that's the s and p. IWM is done even better. Okay.
david_1_12-19-2025_112210:Yeah. And I, and you look at the, at crypto overall, like not just bitcoin. Lots of pain,
ian_1_12-19-2025_122206:Lots of pain.
david_1_12-19-2025_112210:lot of corrective behavior breaking important levels, you know, broadly speaking, hands off, can't be involved in it. And so, yeah, it, it is interesting to see the, I'll call it decoupling of correlation of equities versus crypto, but that's why as technicians, when you use charts to study supply and demand, these are things that you can pick up on. When things do decouple and it's fine. Like I don't, I'm sure there's Bitcoin Maxxis out there that are freaking out on the idea of Bitcoin going to zero. Bitcoin going to zero. I don't care. They can go to zero.
ian_1_12-19-2025_122206:I will not be writing it to zero.
david_1_12-19-2025_112210:Right? But what about your diamond hands? Ian, what about your pride? What? Why don't you lean into your pride? As an investing philosophy.
ian_1_12-19-2025_122206:I lean into my desire to make money
david_1_12-19-2025_112210:That's right. Oh, is that why you're involved in markets? Not for pride.
ian_1_12-19-2025_122206:for
david_1_12-19-2025_112210:it protecting money.
ian_1_12-19-2025_122206:clients and myself.
david_1_12-19-2025_112210:Right. So it is, it is interesting and, and I still don't feel like it's noisy enough out there for the correction to be over in Bitcoin. Maybe it is. I don't know. I'm not here to. Tell the market what to do, but for sure, definitely in a corrective behavior, more so than the market, you know, something you gotta pay attention to. Meanwhile, risk on areas even equal weight, discretionary versus equal weight. Staples moving higher, not a bad thing. Some areas of international moving higher, not a bad thing.
ian_1_12-19-2025_122206:Hi beta. Low ball relationships like that. I put that in. Like you said, equal weight, discretionary, equal weight, staples, silver, gold. Silver continues to lead gold, so I assume that's. Positive for precious metals has been we got a fail, a big, very big failed breakdown in that relationship at the end of June. And I'd say that's kind of when, because I mean, that was the debate is gold, gold miners. These areas looked good the first half of the year. On a relative basis, it was, I mean, kind of just keeping track with the s and p
david_1_12-19-2025_112210:Well,
ian_1_12-19-2025_122206:then really took off, came back down, and then really took off.
david_1_12-19-2025_112210:Yeah. Big island reversal there and I, isn't it interesting that precious metals and financials are doing so well while crypto is not? Remember the whole. Defi over tradify, right? We need to be in decentralized versus traditional finance. The banks are just jerks, and I'm not saying they're not. I'm just, if you're in the market to be in relative strength in the places that are doing well and avoiding the places that are not. It's been precious metals and trad tradify. Hate to break it to you guys. That might be hard to hear, and maybe we're marketing. Maybe this episode is marketing a a, a shift in that relationship. Maybe, I don't know, maybe Bitcoin rips from here. I don't know. But for the past few months, that has not been the case. You wanna be in physical stores of value versus digital stores of value and traditional finance over decentralized finance.
ian_1_12-19-2025_122206:I agree.
david_1_12-19-2025_112210:How about fixed income? Anything there? I know it's not as sexy as
ian_1_12-19-2025_122206:Woo. Fixed income, continue to see rates go up, up, up, up. 30 year treasury yield back up above 4.8. Just fascinating man. Three rate cuts over the last few months. I'm pretty, I think we've had three and interest rates continue to go up, which just goes to show you that bond market more powerful than whatever the Fed wants to do.
david_1_12-19-2025_112210:Agreed. What else do you wanna highlight?
ian_1_12-19-2025_122206:Gosh, what else to highlight, Dave? I mean, just, it continues to be a market that, I mean, they save it. They save it. Now we're still, I wouldn't say we're quite out of the woods. Yeah, I mean, you always wanna get to new all time highs. I would also add that an the amazing year that gold and silver have had, I would say that the long-term charts suggests that it won't just be like a one year out performance thing.
david_1_12-19-2025_112210:So you're saying there's the possibility exists of precious metals
ian_1_12-19-2025_122206:Yeah, I think it's a pretty, pretty solid possibility.
david_1_12-19-2025_112210:Yeah.
ian_1_12-19-2025_122206:Big bases in a lot of those relationships. We mentioned, you know, silver versus gold. I mean, that's just a positive kind of sentiment right there. And then you can take that, you know. Platinum, palladium. I think they've done pretty good.
david_1_12-19-2025_112210:Well, and I think you bring up a good point. It was just three or four months ago that silver had a 0% return from 1980.
ian_1_12-19-2025_122206:wow. I mean, how dumb, how dumb do you feel if you've been holding silver for 45 years
david_1_12-19-2025_112210:not dumb
ian_1_12-19-2025_122206:and now look at us. Okay.
david_1_12-19-2025_112210:Yeah, and I, you know, I think that's important. know, we're exceeding the 2.618 extension of the base in gold going back to June of August of 2011. You know, I could gold continue to, again, it goes back to momentum. Things that tend to go up in price, continue to go up in price. And again, it's why you're involved in markets, right? It's about protecting purchasing power. Every has an opportunity to go somewhere speaking of the dollar, if you just held dollars. The trade dollar still sitting below a hundred, still below sitting below a 200, falling 200 day, while equities and precious metals move higher when you're trying to maintain your purchasing power. Kind of important to be in those areas of strength.
ian_1_12-19-2025_122206:Have to be, have to be you. You gotta at least try. You gotta at least put your money to work and try.
david_1_12-19-2025_112210:Yep. Agreed. Anything else you want to cover before we make this a short and sweet episode
ian_1_12-19-2025_122206:I don't, I don't kind of wait and see mode. I mean, hey, the market gets bought up where it needs to get bought up at. I will give it that. The areas that. Need to work, continue to work.
david_1_12-19-2025_112210:It continues to be risk on environment.
ian_1_12-19-2025_122206:just market figure just finds a way to figure it out. Save itself, grind higher.
david_1_12-19-2025_112210:Not a bad thing.
ian_1_12-19-2025_122206:I guess that's not bearish. Dave,
david_1_12-19-2025_112210:It's not,
ian_1_12-19-2025_122206:if we were saying the opposite, the market can't figure out how to go higher. We'd probably be in a downtrend.
david_1_12-19-2025_112210:yeah.
ian_1_12-19-2025_122206:We'd probably be wondering where all the selling pressure is coming from. Everyone wants out.
david_1_12-19-2025_112210:Agreed. Well, I just wanna say I appreciate Ian, I hope you and your family have a Merry Christmas. I hope everybody listening to this has a Merry Christmas great time of year to make family great again. with friends and family and make those deposits into their life. Kind of an important celebration, right? The celebrating the savior of the world, arriving in Jesus. Pretty exciting. And so I hope you enjoy your time off next week. We will not have a episode recording next week, and we'll be back January 2nd and we'll even have some 12 months of information to cover. That'll
ian_1_12-19-2025_122206:Yeah, that'll be good. We'll have monthly candles. We'll be done with Santa Claus rally. Well, no, we won't be, will we?
david_1_12-19-2025_112210:one more day. We'll
ian_1_12-19-2025_122206:Well, we'll have the Monday. Yes. We'll have to go through Monday. But yeah, it'll be good.
david_1_12-19-2025_112210:Awesome. Well, thanks everyone for listening. it's been a great year. Please share us on your platform of choice and give us a high ranking. We really appreciate it.
ian_1_12-19-2025_122206:Have a great weekend everyone.