The Weekly Trend
The Weekly Trend
Episode 283: Differentiation
In this week's episode, David and Ian discuss how mega cap growth names are lagging behind, while small caps and international equities continue to outperform. Does this mean 2026 will be a year of differentiation? They also discuss precious metals, crypto, interest rates, and some market relationships they find interesting.
Welcome back to The Weekly Trend Podcast. Today is Friday, January 16th, 2026 S&P, height of a hundred, currently sitting at 69 51. I'm David Zarling. I'm here with Ian McMillan. Thanks to you and Kevin for covering last week.
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:It was my pleasure
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:Yeah, appreciate it.
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:at Chick-fil-A. That's what I would say.
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:Ooh.
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:I.
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:Would you be inside, outside? I kinda like the outside gig.
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:I mean, I mean, whew. I guess that's, I'm such a weakling when it comes to cold weather, you
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:Okay.
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:but think the, I think the yellow vests I get to wear is pretty cool and they go so fast. I mean, you, it's pretty quick out there.
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:Yeah, they do a good job.
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:Probably don't have time to think about how cold it is.
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:Are you Chick-fil-A sauce guy? Have we covered this already?
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:I'm not really a Chick-fil-A sauce. I'm like, I'm pretty classic ranch.
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:Yeah.
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:My wife does Polynesian.
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:Ooh, okay. Yeah, my wife and my daughters are not Chick-fil-A sauce people, but me and the boys, me and my boys. I dunno why else you go to Chick-fil-A.
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:That's true. That's a good point.
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:Well, plenty to cover again this week for our listeners. Where do you wanna start?
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:Yeah. Stocks off to a pretty good start. Obviously like anything, some stocks doing better than others. Could this be it? Could this be it for small caps
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:Could be.
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:or are we gonna, is Lucy gonna pull the football on us?
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:I mean, I, I think at minimum it's a nice indication that they're going out to new all time highs on an absolute basis. And I find it interesting that your Mag seven, your FANG stocks continue to lag. Small caps are doing this. Is that a trend that continues throughout the year? I guess we have to see and find out, but there appears to be some opportunity there.
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:Yeah, pretty brutal. I know we've talked about Apple and Microsoft in the past. I think they both look pretty. I mean, Microsoft or Apple again today, still back below two 60, which was those highs from late 2024, like Christmas 2024. It's a rough look. You're below a relative. 200 day Microsoft's even worse. Microsoft, I think might be a below an absolute 200. Yeah, it's below an absolute 200 day. Below 4 67 is a pretty rough look. Could be a fail breakdown. I will say that right now if these turn into failures.
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:Oof.
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:Which we won't know for. We wouldn't know for a few days I assume, but if they, like if Microsoft was to get back above 4 70, 4 75, probably have to get back above a 200 A, which is still rising.
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:Right. That that is a good catch because I mean.
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:That could be something.
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:If you get below that and and rip higher and you've got an RAs I divergence and, but yeah, I would say I think it is notable that both Microsoft and Apple on a relative basis to s and p definitely lagging. I mean, Microsoft is where it was in March of 2025 versus the s and p 500. It's really at the same level. It was back in July of 2020. So like there's been really no. Differentiation in return, whether you own the s and p or Microsoft since July of 2020, and then you look at Apple. Apple. Really no differentiation in whether you own the s and p or Apple since September of 2020.
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:Wow. has been terrible. Netflix is maybe one of the worst of the mega caps. Meta also not great, but Netflix is, I don't know what the fundamental story is there. Sure there's some reasoning, but the chart can't own that.
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:Well, and even,
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:and lots of mega cap.
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:and even Amazon. I mean, Amazon, not a bunch of differentiation in return between the s and p since August of 2018.
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:So what all you've got is Google.
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:Google, Nvidia, Tesla, but even Nvidia. I mean, Nvidia really hasn't done anything on a relative basis. For since summer of last year.
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:Same with Palantir. When's the last time you heard anyone talk about Palantir?
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:It's been a while, but that's what happens with price, right? It also hasn't done anything since July of last year. So I don't know. I don't know that we, you know, if anybody's out there saying, oh, this has been a narrow markets in summer of last year. It's just been the big ones. That would be absolutely false. The mega cap growth names. I mean, you brought up Google that. I mean, that has been good.
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:about it. Broadcom, the other top holdings in MGK. We haven't covered our Tesla and Broadcom and Eli Lilly.
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:Okay.
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:to see Eli Lilly in Mega Cap growth. I guess, I mean, I guess I can get that Broadcom fell apart. When I say fell apart, I mean it's, it doesn't look nearly as bad as Netflix, but been sideways.
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:Since the summer of last year, so really since summer of 2025, it has not been a mega cap process. Some might call it might even call that rotation, and we just got done talking about small caps. Are we seeing a, a really nice rotation from mega caps into small caps? Evidence seems to be there.
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:Under the surface seems to be there.
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:Yeah.
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:I mean, if you, yeah, if you pull up a chart of MGC versus IWM, like most things, I will say one thing that's intriguing about IWM is it's not just a Russell versus s and p thing. I mean, Russell versus quite a few things has this basey look.
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:Yeah. Well then you look at the things that are leading in there year to date. I know we're only two weeks in, but you're talking about. Aerospace and defense, semiconductors, metals, and mining. It's not like we're talking about small cap staples, things like that. It's growthier type names in the small cap arena.
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:Small cap tech,
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:Yep.
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:small cap industrials, regionals really have not, haven't done anything. I mean, I'm sure they're technically out. Yeah, I mean they're technically, they are outperforming year to date like Dave said. I mean, we've been two weeks into the 52 week year. I
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:What
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:We'll
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:even, even if you look at like a relationship like IWO versus SPYG, so small cap growth versus large cap growth, kind of bottoming at a logical place here and breaking a rate of trend that goes back to 20 20, 20 21. And before we popped on here, you know you brought up small cap tech. Out outpacing large cap tech since summer of 2025. So it seems like we have some evidence here that some rotation from large to small since summer of last year wouldn't, you know it markets change and we must adapt.
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:That's very true.
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:What do you think about emerging markets?
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:Oh man. I like'em. I wanna be inv. I mean, I guess we are involved now. I mean, it's pretty nice. Again, could be Lucy, she could put a football from, pull the football from. I like it though a lot under the surface to like, I would say Europe kind of calmed down, but emerging markets emerging markets, especially if you look outside China, pretty good Latin America. Kevin brought up Latin America this week, Mexico
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:Yeah,
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:ww.
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:I mean, Mexico's about using Eww is about to go to new all time highs. It's not there yet. We're right at the 2013 high, so think about that. Mexico's had 0% return with heartburn in between since May of 2013.
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:Good relative chart.
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:Yeah,
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:I think so. Korea, miss Korea. Korea's gone, man.
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:it's, yeah. Very good.
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:Maybe not. I mean, I guess you could.
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:No. And what does it say when, you know,
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:I.
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:your largest piece of emerging market like EM is China, which is underperforming, but then you've got things like Taiwan, South Korea, Mexico, South Africa,
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:I
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:you know?
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:kind of bounced back too.
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:Right.
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:I haven't looked at it over the last week, but yeah, still holding up here trying.
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:not, not too shabby. I think it's interesting that that potentially could be accelerating as the dollar's moving higher since the start of the year.
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:Yeah, what do you think? What is up with that? Because, so we got the dollar. It is back over a 200 day. It's a downward sloping 200 day. We are still below a hundred on dollar index. But yeah, you're, you're right. Dollar's been going higher since basically bottom right before Christmas. Precious metals have had a good start to the year though.
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:Right? Yeah. Precious metals also higher. Does one thing break or is it just some things are in correlation at some points and sometimes not.
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:Or it's just, yeah, it's the price of precious metals is just outpacing the increase value of the dollar
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:Yep.
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:value of Precious. Right? And so. You look around the world and other currencies and silver and gold are even more extreme. But yeah, if the, if the, if the value of an asset is gonna go up more than the daily or weekly change of the dollar, then you can still go up. It's, I mean, the dollar was still a headwind in theory, but you. through it.
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:Well, and I, you know, I wonder what's next for like gold and silver. I, when you think about investor psychology, if you haven't been part of this move, what are you, what are you doing now? Like, what are you doing with.
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:tough. And that's really tough because also I assume from a. I mean, how far I would say what this really kick started now, gold and silver had a good start to, we've talked about this a little bit in the client letter too. Gold and silver had a good start to 20, 25. They just weren't doing a ton versus equities as far as like a relative chart and looking for like a big multi-week, multi-month move
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:Right, right.
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:till say the summer. So now you're going on two, three quarters. Gold and silver have been all the rage, right? Oh my gosh. You see it everywhere. and you know, now what I think Costco's limiting how much silver you can buy.
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:Oh really?
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:Yeah. there's a whole craze going on over in Korea and Asia. With people, I mean, just retail people lining up to spend thousands of dollars on gold and silver bars.
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:Yeah, it just kind of feels like, I'm not saying the move is over. I just, you know, we're in the risk management business. So if you haven't been involved in kudos to you. I, I know some of the models that I manage have some, but as, as a friend once said, you have a manly position in precious metals.
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:You know, it's been good.
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:It's been,
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:year.
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:But if you haven't been involved now, what?'cause man, it, it wouldn't, it wouldn't be bad to see some consolidation.
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:Well, and so back to I was being way too long-winded about it, so I apologize. But my point, right, so you're six to nine months into this, like you're definitely getting questions from clients.
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:Yeah.
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:I own gold?
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:Right.
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:Why? I saw gold's up a trillion percent in the last 12 months. Saw silver, platinum, pallium, copper. Why don't I own this? Why don't I own more? Yeah. At this point, super, super tough. Both from like a technical perspective and a psychological perspective, it would be tough to get on.
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:Yeah, you got it.
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:have said at end of last year, I mean, look how much we're already up. I mean, gold is up another, I don't know how much to start. The year silver's up quite a bit to start the year. I feel like.
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:Well, I think it goes back. It, it is really interesting, the, the timing that you mentioned there is, you know, summer to fall of last year and we just talked about how, you know, your mega cap growth, your mega cap tech is when that's stalled out. So is it rotation in from mega cab growth into mega precious metal, or is it just.
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:that would be quite the yeah, I mean, well I think we've already seen that. I feel, I feel like if we're gonna do 20, or I'm sorry, 2003 to 2007, I dunno, have to go back. It would be interesting to see like which mood first, precious metals or small caps
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:And what's your time? What were you looking at? What?
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:like oh three to oh seven,
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:Oh, okay.
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:outta the oh three bottom. Which like obviously we got small cap out performance for a few years there after the.com,
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:Yep.
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:but I wonder if gold
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:not, you're not wrong. I mean, gold. That's interesting. I, I, I, I think you're building a, a, a thesis right here. Live on the spot. You know, you look at gold. Using gold futures versus s and p futures outperforming basically since the dotcom bust through 2011. And then you had small caps outperform from the dotcom bust, and additionally the out of the oh three bottom,'cause it was down two, but.
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:Yeah. I
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:inter, what's interesting about your example, we talked a little bit about emerging markets, but international also outperformed during that period. So you had small caps, you had precious metals, and you had international outperform 2003 to 2007. Is this a repeat? I think that's a good thesis. I think that's the evidence is there for that thesis.
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:It's a decent attempt. I think it's the best attempt, you know, for emerging markets that we've had. If you look at the relative chart, you know, I could say January, 2021 was a decent attempt. You know, above a relative 200 day, you're coming out of a base. Could we get that again? We could. It's not like we've broken a long-term rate of trend here. If you go back to the, you know, I'm looking at EEM versus s and p, the late 2010 highs, but I think you gotta take the trade.
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:Yeah, you take the trade and I, I. I, I wonder the last two years, great market performance, especially if we've, we've focused our eyes on the s and p and the prior two years saw underwhelming outperformance from stocks within the s and p, meaning not a lot of stocks outperformed the index that was in. And now with the magnificent seven, you know, fang stocks mega cap. Breaking down on a relative basis. And I'm not saying that trend is over'cause it could rear its head quickly, but you wonder if 2026 is gonna be a year where a lot of stocks do outperform. The s and PS and P moves higher. Not crazy higher, but there's just a lot more names. And I hate to use the term stock pickers market, but and maybe it's not because there's more names. Dunno. But anyway. That you see a, a higher percentage of stocks outperform the index because mega cap is actually a headwind while things underneath the surface do well.
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:I mean, I think yeah, just your day, how much the NASDAQ has struggled. still not above its October highs. I think you're right. I think that comes through, right. That's gonna show up a lot more in the s and p. We talked a little about about it earlier, but one thing that's impressed me at least this week is super short term, but including the day you look at Russell versus nasdaq. NASDAQ will start the day off, pre-lunch, early morning session, outperforming. And then by the end of the day, it's all rotated back to where Russell, you know, we get to the finish line, four o'clock, three o'clock where you're at. And lo and behold, Russell outperformed on the day.
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:Yeah. I mean, could be a, oh, everything but Megas type of year and international and precious.
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:be super frustrating. I mean, right. That's gonna, I'm sure that's gonna make the s and p pretty wonky. Maybe not. Maybe not. I mean, I don't, and that that can still go up and just underperform. I.
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:Well what and what I find interesting, and I guess the way we think about markets and, and top-down analysis at adaptive is, okay, so we have weak, weak mega caps starting summer of last year following through start of the 2026 of the mega cap names. However, Nvidia and Google are holding up. Okay. And when I say holding up, I don't mean like they're outperforming, I just mean of the mega cap names. While the beach ball's under the water, the air that's in that beach ball is really filled with Google and Nvidia.
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:Yeah.
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:And so if mega caps come back, you wonder what type of move come. Could come out in Nvidia and Google or the other things were precursors and those catch down. Nvidia and Google Catch down could be. What do you think about energy? Energy is not a big, Energy is not a big segment of the s and p 500.
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:No. And typically not a very big segment on this podcast, but mean it got to, it did it got to all time highs this week, right? Well, no, it didn't close trying.
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:But I mean, it's only, it's only 3% of the s and p 500.
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:That's crazy. It's not, it's not like that's new news, but it is cra, I mean, the energy sector,
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:I mean,
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:how much those things can fall. I mean, I would, I would love to see, I'm sure there's data like what it was in oh 6, 0 7, 0 8.
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:mm-hmm. But I mean it, since the beginning of the year, energy's outperforming. The mega names, you know, you look at.
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:And it would go with the small cap theme, you would think.
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:Mm-hmm.
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:What what about, and there is a specific chart I wanna talk about. do you think about financials?
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:Yeah. I really thought, when I think about financials, I think about JP Morgan. Right? Good. Bellwether. Bell bellwether stock still holding up just fine on an absolute basis. Thought it was gonna pull off the breakout versus s and p two weeks ago. Not yet. Still, you know, trying to stay above a relative 200 day, and then, I mean, at financials overall, still an uptrend, so that's good from a bullish perspective. But on a relative perspective, still a lot of work to do. I mean XLF versus s and p still below a falling 200 day, still below the two week crash that happened during the financial mess back in March of 2023. So broadly speaking, still a lot of work to do.
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:It is tough. It's tough, and you have these, it has its days where I think, okay. And it's not bad on an absolute basis. Like I'm looking at KRE again. Bank of America though made all time highs, got above. Its oh eight highs. Pre GFC failed.
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:Yep.
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:when to keep an eye on. But yeah, lackluster, I thought we were really building towards something. Maybe we still are.
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:Yeah, when I look at like JP Morgan versus Microsoft versus Apple versus Amazon, things like that, it is interesting to see it kind of turning a corner and breaking rates of trend, downward rates of trend, and in some ways building out a base. So it'll be,
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:I can see that.
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:be interesting to see how the year plays out for financials, but still a lot of work to do, but on an absolute basis, like just on their own. So not talking about opportunity costs just on their own. Still an uptrend and that's a quality characteristic for the market for sure. You know when
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:Gotta keep them in an uptrend.
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:When European financials are an uptrend, and American financials are an uptrend.
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:Lots of things in uptrend breath. Pretty good.
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:Yeah. Breath. Not bad. Not bad at all.
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:percentage of stocks in the NYSE composite that are above a 200 day moving average that's back above 70% for the first time since December, November, December, 2024.
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:Yeah, that's from bout tray. That's one of the better charts out there. Indicating that we have that breath expansion.
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:So this is not a, oh gosh, we're back at 70% now. I mean, we, we basically around between 65 and 75% for, I mean, almost a full year. I ended up kind of petering off December, 2024. Obviously we got the tariff T interim April, 2025. But yeah, recovered all that. Advanced decline line looks good. Whatever happens with this mega cap thing, whether this is another, you know. Just a quarter, a couple quarter long or whatever. They've they've stepped up with the, during the mega cap, the lackluster mega cap performance. So
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:Right. Well, and even like out of the Mega Cap semiconductor is still holding up Well, you're seeing a, a.
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:I.
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:What I would call reset or resurgence into like quantum computing type stocks on a relative basis. That's not risk off, right? If, if risk is being taken in the quantum computing space, semiconductors and even like metals and mining, uranium setting up again.
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:Uranium looks good. There's a couple. There's a battery tech ETF, I can't think of it. I think it's a lithium battery
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:Like lit, LIT
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:yeah, that might be it. Is it LIT? It looks pretty.
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:or BATT.
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:I think it's BATT was the one. I, I feel like BATT might have a better are No, they still, they both look pretty similar. Some good movers. Some good movers. And you know what, a lot of these themes, Dave, are just themes from last year,
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:Yeah,
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:aerospace.
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:aerospace.
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:It's not like we got to, energy is a bit a new one. We'll, well, we'll see if that holds up, not a lot of things where we got to. January 1st, and then all of a sudden market participants said, oh, you know what? We wanna start buying Korea. I mean, Korea, Peru, all this stuff was working in Q4. A lot of it in Q2 and three.
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:Yeah, and maybe, and maybe. The fact that you're seeing miners outperform the medal, still a quality characteristic and that the expression internationally is you're, you're still seeing strength out of international financials and you're still seeing strength out of international tech and international materials. A little di different, little different spectrum, you know, for, for how many years inve investors have been able to park in the index or park in the MEG seven and get return. That might not be the case starting summer of last year that your return's gonna be in some of these other areas. I mean, it's a little bit more unique than the the three years prior to that things shift. Can you adapt?
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:could be a real, it could be a real shift to value.
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:Right. So I wanna highlight the supporter of the podcast at this time, the Adaptive Select ETF, listed on the New York Stock Exchange. Under ticker ADPV, which helps investors access two of the most prevalent factors in markets, momentum and relative strength using proprietary identification methods. The adaptive Select ETF attempts to own the strongest 25 large cap stocks when the market is in an uptrend. And since not all market environments are the same, adaptive select seeks to prevent extended declines by moving to short-term treasury bills and cash during long-term market Downtrends investors can find out more including how to invest in ADPV by visiting adpvetf.com or calling 1-833-880-FIVE 200. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principle ADPV is distributed by Quasar distributors LLC. And what I find interesting about that product is, believe it or not, it's not beholden on the performance of Mega Cap or Megs. It's not, you know, there's so many. When you look at ETFs across the universe, so many of them have exposure to the mega cap names, and I get it. I get why they do.
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:Yeah.
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:But we might be in a year of differentiation. We might be in a year where there's different things that. Provide the performance rather than the mega cap names and what a blessing that would be, right? Like we talk about these mega caps underperforming in a lot of scenarios. That's not ideal, right? If we didn't have broadening breath, if we saw risk off type behavior, you'd be like, well, maybe the, the, the corrections here. And it still could be, I, I don't want to give the illusion that somehow we know that there's no correction coming, but all these other. Pieces of evidence point to just a shift in opportunity costs, where the return comes from, and that's okay. That's why we use technical analysis.
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:you can see it in momentum funds as well.
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:Yeah.
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:Depending on, you know, are they choosing from the s and p? How often are they rebalancing? I mean, a lot of those, I mean, SPMO, I think SPMO peaked in like now. So did, now that makes sense. Right. So do the Nasdaq. Now it's not a bad looking consolidation. This could certainly take another swing to the upside, but I'll just say other momentum funds have, you know, not that are not tied to the s and p, maybe have a larger basket to choose from, like ADPV. I think it's just really benefited them. A lot more. So
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:Hmm.
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:I'm exci. I'm always excited for environments when we are moving away from the S&P.
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:Yeah, it's great for technicians or. You know, money managers that use technical analysis, you can identify when these shifts happen. It's great. It's great to have differentiation. Nothing wrong with that. What about some relationships? Anything that you're looking at there?
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:I would say, you know, as far as breadth, A big one that I think just adds more to this. Like, okay, this really could be serious. Be QQQJ
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:Okay.
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:QQQ. That's, I mean, again, you've got this base look that we've been working on for, I don't know, over two years. High think, high beta, low vol. Continues to hold up pretty well. And now of course I can't find it, although I did look at it,
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:Yeah, no, it's still uptrend quality uptrend.
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:yesterday. It's down today, but yeah, it's, it's fine. And then, right, I mean, what is, what is low? It's considered high beta again, right? You're just choosing from the s and p, so. Just because it's, there could be other high beta names that are, are working. Right. And a lot of these are large cap growth. I mean, this is, this is Growthy,
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:Yeah. That's a good point.
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:App, Tesla, micron, Robinhood I mean these are all names that. If high beta rolls over, I don't think it means the market rolls over. It's just very highly tilted towards, I mean, I'll tell you what, we can find plenty of high beta in value in small caps.
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:Yes.
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:tell you that. So
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:Yes, very true. Very true.
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:You have any relationships that you are.
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:Well, besides my wife, I always keep an eye on junk versus aggregate
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:Okay.
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:Like I like that. That continues to move higher still within a range. That goes back two years, but it's holding up, it's moving higher. You know, I view that as risk on I think that looks good and I, I think it's notable where some of the equal weight stuff is and how it's doing. You know, if you look at equal weight s and p versus s and p bottoming kind of where it needed to, or even the Russell 1000 equally weighted. Not bad. Those would be some for me.
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:I like it.
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:So still remains a, a risk on environment out there. Meanwhile, you got Megs and FNGS fangs underperforming. The s and p beggars don't get to be choosers. We haven't talked about crypto. We haven't talked about crypto yet.
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:Yes. Crypto, I mean a pretty good week. Bitcoin's back above 95. Well, yeah, broke above 95. Got up to, I don't know, 97, 90 8,000. Looks like right under 98,000 or maybe right to it. We'll see 200 days started to kind of roll over. I'm not quite as of a firm believer as I would be that this will be an easy recovery. And I do think the long term chart is a, I mean, maybe, well, I guess, you know, I can do whatever it wants. But I wouldn't be, I wouldn't be itching yet to go. Buy Bitcoin for a long-term trade right now.
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:Right
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:Now if you wanna, it's not a bad, it's not a bad risk reward
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:on an absolute basis.
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:on an absolute basis. If you want to, if you wanna use 94 as your stop, I mean, that makes sense. I would not chop your head off if someone said that to me, but just know that you got some headwinds. You've brought this long-term, multi-year. Trend from, you know, late 2022 was broken back in November. You're below a 200 day that is now starting to roll over. It's not the most decline yet, but it's rolling over. It's not, it's just not as easy of a buy the dip scenario as it would've been two, three years ago.
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:Right. What about bonds and rates?
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:Bonds and rates. Everyone wants to know about the bonds and rates, and I got nothing. I got nothing.
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:Still in the range,
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:still in a range, you
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:and it doesn't always have to be bonds down, stocks up. I mean, for how many years it's been bonds down just periods.
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:Down. Straight up. Yeah.
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:You know, bonds are still in a correction that goes back to July of 2020. August of 2020, and really, rates haven't gone anywhere for two years, three years,
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:Yeah. But you could argue, I mean, yeah, you could argue three for sure.
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:and markets might like that. Stable, stable rate.
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:that sometimes, and I, I kind of put the dollar in the same category.
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:Yeah. Like if there's not these,
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:in the dollar. I think the market's just happy when they like chill the frick out
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:yeah,
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:bit.
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:yeah. Just move sideways. Not a lot of change. It's kinda like, you know, when you're playing a board game, you don't want the rules changed all the time. Your input costs, you know you're your dollar at your rates. You don't want those changing all the time.
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:Right.
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:For moving sideways.
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:Does the risk-free rate managed to David and I now, I don't about the risk-free rate, but there are,
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:Okay.
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:are trillions of dollars out there that are managed. Whether it's banks or other institutions or sovereign wealth funds or whatever, I mean, we do, right? We know fixed, I mean, fixed income. We've talked about this so many times, much larger market than the equity market, and those people don't want that stuff changing all the time. I mean, you're managing a trillion dollars in fixed income moves and rates are a big deal to you.
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:Right.
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:yeah, just. Having them hang out for a bit. I know everyone like wants to say, see their, you know refi or mortgage, at least me because we bought a house last year, so I'm ready, ready to get'em back down. But it is, it is what it is. We're just hanging out. We've had rate hikes, right? I think Kevin and I talked about that last week. Maybe you, maybe it was you and I the week before, but. I'm sorry. We've had rate decreases since what? September and rates have just gone up.
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:It's almost like the bond market knows more than the Fed.
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:Are we getting a new Fed chairman? That's what I've been reading.
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:Maybe John Harbaugh
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:Ooh.
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:now he's with the Giants now, I guess.
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:The Giants won the Harbaugh lottery,
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:Yeah. Maybe Jerome's gonna take a job with one of the openings. I mean, we got so many coaching.
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:You said eight coaches fired and won and then Tom Tomlin stepping down.
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:Yeah.
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:I mean Baltimore's right there.
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:Yeah. Maybe Jerry. Yeah. Maybe Jerry's going to career change.
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:Do you see? They unveiled the new Redskins stadium pictures.
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:Yeah. What'd Yeah? Well, what'd you think?
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:I guess I don't know why they need another one.
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:It is the nature of the biz man. Always finagling for the new home.
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:chief state. They say, I'm getting tired of it. They're moving the Arrowhead. They're not, well, they're not moving Arrowhead. They're just gonna build a new stadium.
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:Right?
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:You think the Packers would ever do that? No, they wouldn't. I don't know if the Packers ever move from Lambda. We know society is done.
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:Yeah, that's true. That's a good point. I mean, shoot, even the Bears are talking about a stadium in Gary, Gary, Indiana.
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:No way.
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:Yeah,
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:Is that like a big suburb? Do a lot of people commute from Gary into Chicago?
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:yeah,
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:Probably. You get to live in Indiana and then you get your Chicago salary. That's probably not a bad gig.
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:yeah. Home of Michael Jackson and the Bears.
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:Hmm. Something to think about.
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:Yes, exactly. Exactly.
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:just saying
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:You got I know our teams are not in the playoffs. You got a team, you got a second team. Is there someone you're.
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:well, Eagles are out now, so wife and I are both done. For me, I think, well, I really wanted the Panthers to go, that was my fur. I wanted the Panthers to well. It was very exciting around the Charlotte Metro area to see It was exciting for the Panthers to be competitive this year. I mean, I know they weren't eight and nine, but
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:I was impressed that they had the old QB back there introducing the game.
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:Cam
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:Yeah.
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:Yeah.
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:I thought they were beefing still, but there he was with his crazy hat on.
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:WI guess, you know, winnings winning cures all,
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:Yeah, that's true.
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:maybe so who do we have? I, I guess I'd have to go Seahawks.
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:Okay.
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:Seahawks. They have a lot of Gamecocks on their team.
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:Oh, I didn't know that.
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:Yeah. So they, I'll go with, I'll go with them.
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:Yeah, I kind of wanna see Josh Allen get his.
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:Yeah, that would be nice. Since the Chiefs aren't in
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:But I also love good defense and I just love the way the Texans play defense. Probably one of those two, although I'm also a big Brock Purdy fan, so I don't mind. And Shanahan like Shanahan's a good offense coordinator, like.
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:you, and I talked about this and we won't get into, but I'll leave. I'll leave our listeners with this look into the theory about the 49 ERs and their stadium being
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:Oh
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:the power plant,
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:yeah, I saw that. But hasn't that been the case for a while? Like,
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:they've been getting injured for a while.
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:okay, for like 10 years, 20 years? I mean, I could, I could see it. I could see it. I just feel like I.
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:for sure over the last 10 years, they're like the, by far, the highest injured team.
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:Man,
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:It's interesting theory.
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:it is an interesting theory.
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:something for your three day week, if you find yourself bored on Monday, your three day weekend
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:Yeah. We'll put our listeners on it. They can let us, they can let us know. What do they think that's.
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:leave our listeners with a new conspiracy theory for the week.
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:I like it. I like it. We'll do it. But yeah, three day weekend. You got plans? Three day weekend.
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:I know we're just, we're going, I know one of the nights we're going over to a friend's house for fire pit and pizza. other than
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:nice.
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:nothing. Nothing yet.
david_1_01-16-2026_111441:No, it's good. It'll be nice for the market to be closed. I think it's appropriate. I, I know Martin Luther King wasn't a perfect person, but either was King David and got a lot of respect for the man who, you know, led people through a tough topic. And one of my favorite quotes from Martin Luther King was, darkness cannot drive out darkness. Only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate. Only love can do that. And so I think it's appropriate that we have the day off. And so I hope you enjoy it. I hope our listeners do too, and we ask our listeners that if you appreciate this, share it with others, give us a high ranking on your platform, a choice that is a compliment to us. So tha Ian, thanks for doing this again with me, man. We'll do it again next week.
ian_1_01-16-2026_121437:Have a great weekend everyone.