Episode 284: Idiomatic

In this week's episode, David and Ian discuss the continued move to the upside in precious metals and the relative relationship between the metals and their miners. They also discuss the 5-standard deviation move in Japanese Bonds, signs for risk on/risk off behavior, international equities, energy, small caps, January seasonality, market breadth, crypto, and fixed income. 

Transcript

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 0:46

Welcome back to the Weekly Trend Podcast. Today is Friday, January 23rd, 2026 s and p 500, currently sitting at 69 23. I'm David Zarling. I'm here with Weather Mageddon Ian McMillan. Are you guys alive? Down the Carolinas

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 1:01

Oh yeah, we're swell. It's just a big FNBA freaking nothing burger.

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 1:07

freaking Nothing Burger.

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 1:09

Freaking nothing Burgers.

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 1:11

Those are the worst Freaking nothing. Burgers.

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 1:14

Oh my God. They don't do anything. Get out. Get out. It could be, I mean, the snowstorm could be an A, DPV.

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 1:21

Yeah.

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 1:21

Could be, could be f and B.

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 1:24

F and b. Freaking nothing. Burger. Although I will say for here in lovely Wisconsin, currently sitting at minus 11.

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 1:31

No.

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 1:32

Yeah. Pre windchill too.

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 1:34

In West Bend,

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 1:36

Yeah,

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 1:37

see, and this is why, this is why I don't complain, because someone out there always has it worse than me.

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 1:45

You know what I saw on the socials, on the Twitters on the X this week was that trees can explode when it's cold enough,

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 1:52

Yeah, I saw the sap. The SAP expands. Apparently

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 1:56

like

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 1:56

I had to Google it.

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 1:58

rapidly freezes and then blows up.

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 2:00

Imagine if you're like a maple syrup farm. Is that like a big risk to your business?

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 2:06

Could be. That's interesting. I know it's in spring when you have the freeze thaw process that you get your maple syrup, but yeah, if you don't have syrup because it exploded,

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 2:15

Yeah, because the trees all have a third of your acreage exploded.

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 2:19

can you imagine what maple syrup futures would do in that scenario? Crazy. But no. Nothing by you. No. No ice yet. Nothing.

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 2:27

No, nothing. I don't think we're gonna get any snow, which is so,

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 2:31

I bet your

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 2:32

and if we're gonna do this, do it.

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 2:35

and I feel like

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 2:35

Let's do it.

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 2:36

looking forward to some

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 2:37

Yeah. I think the boys, I mean, I, I probably played that card pretty too hard early on in the week.

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 2:45

Oh,

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 2:45

Knowing that it would, yeah, I kind of got'em hyped up about that we could be getting some snow

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 2:51

Oh, you gave some hope and you, Lucy

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 2:53

and now I'm having like the slow, we're doing like the slow let down.

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 2:58

Oh, well that's okay someday,

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 3:02

What about the market? Is the market cold?

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 3:05

No,

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 3:05

No. I guess some parts of it might be.

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 3:08

Yeah, some, some are. But I think, you know, the, the top down weight of evidence approach that we use which is much, much different than, you know, your, I'm gonna call it lazy indexing process, or your bottom up where you're on conference calls and balance sheet and earnings. Our top down process continues to show risk on behavior. But anytime you have a thesis, think you said it well before we hopped on here, there's some things I just need to see follow through. Like, it'd be really nice to see follow through.

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 3:41

That always helps. Continuing the up option helps,

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 3:45

yeah. The, the trend is your friend until it ends. My friend, where

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 3:50

which,

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 3:51

Where do you, where do you wanna cover? Because we're gonna cover it all today, Ian. We're gonna get equities,

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 3:55

I mean, I guess continues to be the. Biggest storyline. Gotta gotta still be precious metals.

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 4:06

Oh, jeepers. Yes.

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 4:07

another continuation on the parabolic run for I mean the miners, I mean silver and platinum. Was it silver and platinum? Is it silver and palladium that are the most kind of. Bonkers.

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 4:26

Well, and, and, and well. silver, gold, platinum, and palladium.

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 4:30

Yeah. Platinum's pretty.

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 4:32

Definitely ripping and I, I'm curious on your thoughts on, well, first of all, kudos to you. I know, I know we talked about this a little bit last week, but a position in in silver, which has been great for our clients, so thank you for that. But when you think about analysis, using technical analysis a precious metals regime, a lot of times you'll see the producers of precious metals or the harvesters or the miners, right? The, so for example, GDX versus GLD, so gold miners versus gold. Gold miners is out it's not necessarily the same thing in silver, right? We're seeing silver outperform silver miners. So on on the spectrum. On the spectrum of precious metals. And I, and I say that with a caveat because silver minor, so on the spectrum you got silver, silver miners. Gold miners gold. if you were to look at what's happening on a trend basis and in a a momentum basis, I, I don't wanna make it seem like there's don't line up. It's just interesting to see that gold miners are outperforming gold.

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 5:43

That's a fact. Yeah.

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 5:44

Silver miners are not outperforming silver, but both silver and silver miners are outperforming gold and gold miners, which is completely

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 5:54

is, this is interesting. You're I didn't know you were just telling me that now. I didn't know that.

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 6:00

Sorry I cut you off guard. Like I, I hit the record button and all of a sudden I'm throwing this at you and I apologize for that. It's just an interesting dynamic that,

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 6:07

I need some time. No, I need some time to digest.

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 6:10

but, and I don't necessarily think that that's risk off. It just, it, it it just tells you how strong silver has been. Like silver is. You know, we talk about sigma moves, right? Like the market is normally abnormal. We're seeing abnormal in silver and, and that's not, that's normal. That's okay. Like, it's, I'm not, I'm not saying that that's a bad thing. I, but as far as silver miners go, it just, it, it definitely is. Going back to your original point, the precious metal trade is on, and I'll go back to what we talked about last week. I don't know how you get involved at this point.

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 6:52

Yeah, there is no right. And that's tough, right? Because we've said that for at least a couple weeks now. And we've gone up another, I mean, I don't know how much shovel stillers up in the last two weeks, but it's. Probably another 10 to 15%. Yeah, parabolic for sure.

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 7:11

yeah, parabolic

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 7:13

Okay.

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 7:13

and, and that's okay. And parabolic. I, I, I don't know. I don't know what to tell, tell you when the rocket stops going up, you know, and I, the other. This is gonna be a weird pivot, so, but I'm gonna try it. And this is another thing I'm probably gonna maybe catch you off guard on is one of the guys I'm a fan of on socials is Mike Sardi

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 7:34

Mm-hmm.

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 7:34

and he pointed out five standard deviation event in Japanese bond yields.

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 7:41

Oh yeah, that's what the whole, oh yeah. It wasn't,'cause there was a big gap down on, well we were off Monday but big gap down on Tuesday from the. From the Japanese jbs,

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 7:58

The jbs.

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 7:59

the jbs.

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 8:01

I mean, and it's not, I mean, it, it is something that I think you gotta pay attention to, I you have. Japanese bonds going out at, you know,'cause that's always been the narrative fundamentally is, oh man, interest rate risk or the, the, the debt service on interest rates is crazy. And I think you now have Japanese 30 year going out to highs we haven't seen and. Like quite a long time.

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 8:33

What, uh, what, what do you look at, uh, for that? Do you have a ticker for that?

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 8:40

Yeah. So if you go, like if you do, you can look at 10 year yields, you can look at 30 year yields. Like JP 10 Y would be your tenure.

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 8:51

Oh, I see. JP 10 y jp. Wow. How about that?

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 8:58

And JP 30 year. So it, the point goes, markets are normally abnormal, right? We're seeing a move in silver that we haven't seen in 50 some years. We're seeing a move in Japanese yields that we haven't seen in. I don't know the duration a long time. We're apparently getting a once in 40 year event this week across the, let's call it of the Missouri.

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 9:26

Yeah. Are you guys gonna get any of that?

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 9:29

Well, we got the, well, we got the, the temperature part, we got the minus,

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 9:33

The best part?

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 9:34

minus 40 degree windchill. But markets are just normally abnormal. That's just part of the gig. You know, when we talk about one in 100 year events, we have to think globally. We have to think broad marketly, and here we have two. We've got silver Japanese bond yields. Now, if I'm sitting on the other side of this desk observing to what I'm, what I just said. Maybe those are some red flags. cause we're, we've been pretty bullish for a while. Our listeners know that, you know, basically since April May of last year, we've been bullish equities and any good technician or risk manager is gonna be analyzing their thoughts and their thesis out there. And so we have a bullish bias, a bullish thesis. If we were to say, okay, what makes that thesis wrong? Is it precious metals? Is it Japanese bond yields? I don't know, because the evidence, the other evidence still continues to stack up. Bullish. It, it, it.

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 10:35

Yeah, people love to say, oh my God, they did this in, you know, I think it was 2024. Was it 2024? Utilities had a good year. At beginning of 2025, people say, oh, utilities are sending a warning. And then all you've heard about for the last six, nine, you know, oh, gold and precious metals are sending a war. I mean, I don't know, maybe it was a warning about crypto. So far it hasn't been a warning about equities and US equities aren't even the best equities. So,

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 11:10

let's talk about that.

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 11:11

I mean, and that theme is continued right through last, I mean, it's, yes, we've talked about it. Had a good Q1 last year and then kind of fizzled out and then kind of came back. But I mean, emerging markets, um, you know, broadly speaking, just using an EEM, I think has a very, very. It's a lot of potential in that chart. If this can much like right as much like small caps, we gotta, gotta keep it going. I wouldn't say we're totally outta the woods, but I, not too shabby.

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 11:48

Yeah, if you were to use EEM versus the s and p, there's definitely something there. I think what's interesting. Is, I believe the makeup of emerging markets using EEM is heavily weighted towards China.

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 12:02

Yeah. Not as much as it used to be,

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 12:04

Okay.

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 12:05

but, cause I looked at this a couple weeks ago, I feel like it now, China's down to 27% and it used to be, let's see how they have it. They have geography.

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 12:18

It might've been. It might been as high as 50. I feel like,

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 12:20

It was definitely about at least 40. I definitely remember it at 40 or in the forties, China's down to 20. I mean, you've got Taiwan up to 21% now.

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 12:30

oh, I'm gonna guess that's Taiwan semiconductors.

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 12:33

Yeah. Yeah.

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 12:35

But it, it's interesting when you back out Chinese exposure in EEM to see what the rest of the emerging market complex is

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 12:45

I. South Korea has been amazing. I totally missed, totally missed the South Korea, but you wanna talk about parabolic charts? I mean, that thing is, that thing is a beauty. And from a relative basis, I mean, just, I, I mean, yeah, that's what amazes me when I go through emer, like emerging markets. A lot of these. Gold miners, especially the individual stocks. I mean, there is years of potential there because of what's happened over the last, since 2011, they've just been beaten down so bad.

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 13:21

Wait, can you expand on that a little bit? When you, when you look at Gold miners on a relative basis, is that what you're saying? I don't.

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 13:28

Yeah, more so like especially the individual names,

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 13:31

Individual names,

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 13:33

big bases.

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 13:34

big bases. Okay.

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 13:36

Basis mean

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 13:37

that

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 13:38

for multiple years.

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 13:39

you're saying the evidence exists metals and minors hire for longer. And when I say longer, I wanna be careful because, right. Silver's move has been historic and so you. expect some consolidation in here, but from a bigger term perspective, you're saying there's potential here for a multi-year move.

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 14:02

I do wonder where we're at in silver. Like, are we right?'cause no. So November, 2010 through February 11, coming off a pretty, you know, at that time. I looking at silver, I should probably use silver features for this pretty para ball now, you know, I guess in oh three, pretty big move end of oh three into oh four. Pretty big move. Chilled out for a few years. About a year, 18 months, another big, massive move. 120%. So it does run and consolidate, but when is it, yeah, when is that? I mean this, yeah, this is really kind of puts both, all that, uh, all that other stuff to shame. I mean, this move the last. What, six, nine months?

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 14:54

Yeah.

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 14:54

insane.

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 14:56

So can I give you something crazy?

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 14:59

Yeah. I don't see why not.

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 15:00

a crazy thought. Okay, so we're technicians. When you look at Silver Futures, you can't see this necessarily because those, for the most part, continuously trade.

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 15:15

Yeah.

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 15:17

But when you look at a weekly chart of SLV, the 72 to$76 level that we just skipped over. Is that a possibility of a halfway gap bringing, bringing some technical analysis into this, that that's halfway of the move, which is crazy to think about.

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 15:37

That's crazy.

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 15:38

And at the same time, the breakout in silver in November of 1978. That thing went on a run of 592% in basically two years.

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 15:54

That's crazy.

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 15:55

We're not even close to that type of move on a percentage basis for silver. I guess I'm bringing up the, my mind goes towards. Wow, this has been an abnormal move. You wonder if it consolidates here or does just abnormal become more abna abnormal? Because we haven't even reached the 1.6618 extension of silver futures, and I interestingly, we're halfway and that's where the gap happens. I don't know, just throwing something out there for people to chew on.

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 16:28

I love it.

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 16:29

So.

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 16:30

Yeah, precious metals. Precious metals as we said clearly. Um, yeah, it's got all the eyes, all the eyes. Something that doesn't have a lot of eyes. Maybe it does, maybe it doesn't deserve a lot of eyes yet, let's say is energy.

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 16:48

Yeah,

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 16:49

I.

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 16:49

I think that's fair. You know, energy. was a big winner coming out of the COVID crash. You know it, it, by November of 2020 it ripped and outperformed, but basically since late 2022 XLE versus energy's been underperforming to the tune of basically minus 43% opportunity cost, meaning. If your dollar was to choose between Energy XLE and the s and p 500, if you chose XLE, you were, you underperformed by 43%. But here we are, first part of 2026 and there's some signs there for energy for sure. What are you looking at in that space?

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 17:31

Uh, for sure the. equipment and services better than X-O-P-X-O-P is like what? Exploration and production. Yeah. Services. We'll see if it gets going. I'll tell you one, I'm bummed. I thought, I mean, biotech, maybe that's just part of. I dunno, Russell's such an enigma because bio biotech had been pretty good. Still out here a little bit, so we'll see.

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 18:04

If I can just go back to the energy thing for a second.

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 18:07

Yeah.

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 18:08

The clue. The clue on this one might be ExxonMobil, the largest of the energy names,

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 18:15

I mean, look at that thing.

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 18:16

that's fresh, new, all time highs. You have to paint the picture for our listeners. ExxonMobil in 2022 had gone nowhere since 2007, heartburn in between 0% return. Massive drawdowns. Then it built a base on top of that base, so between 97 bucks and let's call it one twenty two. That base built for almost three years, and now we're breaking out X lms, going out to new all-time highs on a absolute basis.

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 18:48

Yeah, the monthly chart on that is quite something.

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 18:53

Not, not too shabby for ExxonMobil, and I apologize for pivoting us back there. It's just I

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 18:58

No, that's a great point. I mean, hmm. Maybe we should be long ExxonMobil. What's the relative chart on that look like?

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 19:04

Perking up. So you were talking about biotech.

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 19:08

My disappointment in it. Yeah.

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 19:10

Oh, your disappointment in it and, and what do you mean As far as like just more recently?

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 19:15

Gotta get going. Put it. Same with like regional, like what are we doing regionals?

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 19:20

Well, and

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 19:20

What is this?

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 19:21

interesting ones where it's on the verge of new, if I'm using IBB new to all time relative highs still is work to do, but it's right there. But to your point, KRE still pretty, I mean, if there was a, there was a, a version of risk management, hell, it might be you had to be a regional bank investor for the last 20 years,

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 19:46

Yeah, that's.

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 19:48

Super hot mess.

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 19:50

Just banks and like Katie, and maybe they just need to take a break. I get it. I'm impatient. I want, you know, want things to move.

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 19:58

Mm-hmm.

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 19:59

any banks. It's kind of disappointed in JP Morgan

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 20:02

Yeah.

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 20:03

doesn't help. I know it's not a regional bank. But financials in general, XLF is taking it in the chin again today. The relative chart, the absolute's fine. The relative chart is, and they're going up, financials are going up.

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 20:17

Yeah, you do wonder about JP Morgan on a relative basis. Absolute basis is fine. There's a broadening, a broadening formation versus the s and p right up against resistance. You wonder which way that. It pulls itself out. But small cap, small caps have been nice since the beginning of the year. A little bit of shift today.

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 20:35

Yeah.

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 20:35

it be interesting I would make the argument that for FANG stocks and Meg stocks, your, your big seven, 10, some logical support in these areas. you have got a island reversal on Megs.

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 20:50

Hmm. Just as they get us buying the smalls.

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 20:54

Right. And that's been right'cause Meg cap, mega cap have been stagnant sideways since summer of last year. Just as you start to see, and, and will admit the markets held their. Held up well considering the large cap weakness since summer of last year. But is that about to rear its head again where we see a resurgence in in Megas? Again, this would be a logical place. This would be a logical place for for that to happen. Time will tell. We'll, well, you know, I think you said it best before we hopped on here. You need some follow through.

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 21:28

Gotta see it, which is, I guess, hate to keep asking for it. Hate to keep asking all the time for follow through, but. That's how we keep the train go. Going

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 21:38

Well, isn't that one of the better characteristics in life, in relationships, in work, somebody that's able to follow through? I don't think that's a bad thing.

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 21:45

all through to the upside. Yeah.

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 21:47

Follow through. And speaking of following through, I mean we got one week to go for the end of January, can you believe it? One month in one 12th into 2026.

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 21:56

Are we, uh, what are we looking at on January barometer?

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 22:01

So January barometer, we are

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 22:04

It might be up a little.

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 22:05

positive on the year, a little bit

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 22:07

Okay.

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 22:08

week to go now. Next week will matter. But I mean, Jan, January barometer is, it's an, it's an important thing to look at. I mean, I know 88% of the time when we're positive in January, the rest of the year is positive. And that makes sense though, right? Like if you're a, if you're a sports fan, right? The team that scores first, I'm sure there are stats on. If you, if the Tina that scores first, the likelihood of winning, be the same thing for markets. It makes sense if January's positive the right, you already come out to a head start that the idea of the rest of the year is gonna be a head start and we have a mixed bag, right? The Santa Claus rally period, it was negative first five days were positive. If we could get a positive January, could see a positive rest of the year. I am not gonna complain if we have another positive ear.

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 22:56

I don't think anyone will.

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 22:58

What do you think about breath participation?

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 23:00

I think it's pretty solid.

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 23:02

Yeah,

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 23:02

think it's pretty darn solid, obviously. I mean, the Nasdaq,

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 23:07

I.

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 23:08

um, waning, but the na, I mean, but the NASDAQ's been sideways since Halloween, so, uh, I'm not real, I'm not real worried about like the advanced decline line being sideways when the index has been sideways. If the index had been up 10% with, uh, some of the participation metrics looking like they do obviously that'd be a little bit more diverging, but it's something we have. You look at NYSE participation looks great. Bullish percent, I think it was back up to like 68. So can you imagine if that, and that's like. Kind of the highest we've gotten over the last few years is around 68, but could you imagine if that got into the seventies? Hmm.

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 23:58

Yeah, I mean. I know of Andrew Thrasher, a fellow chartered market technician out there. This is the longest we've gone without 70% of stocks trading above a 200 day moving average in the s and p 500 since the great financial crisis. I, so, but, and that, that makes some sense with some of the churning that we saw since summer of last year. we haven't had that and are, are we about to get that like a broadening out? And that goes back to the thesis of are we actually early on this bull Legg rather than late? Right. Because I, I get it. Like if, if you were coming out of the 23 bottom and you weren't exposed to that move, and then you had the tariff tantrum in spring of last year. You might still be on your heels, but there might still be opportunity here.

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 24:48

See now, I feel like after our conversation today. I'd be more on, right? Because what if bolus percent tops out here again in the high sixties,

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 24:58

Yeah.

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 24:59

then are you? And then that, so then I'm like, okay, then we're pro if, like if someone told me that that was gonna happen if I time traveled. Someone ca, I guess someone came back, came from the future and was like, oh yeah, it doesn't, we don't get above 68 for the year, but markets go up. Then I'm like, okay, we just went back to the mega cap thing

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 25:18

Yes. Yeah, that's a great point.

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 25:22

and if we have been like, so I think it, I think if bullish percent gets into the seventies, that helps the small cap thesis. If we peter out here again, then

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 25:36

it was just a six month rotation. Right. It

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 25:38

it was just a six month rotation and we should be buying this consolidation on the XLK versus s and p chart.

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 25:46

Yeah. And that would be constructive to have a six month sideways relative performance of the mega caps and then move higher. Definitely could happen. The other, the other piece is also. Like really I look at it as four different scenarios, right? You've got, do we return to mega caps and everything else lags? Is there an actual true broadening out? So everything, which is the most bullish thesis, the megas go, the small caps go. International, continues to go or do megas continue to lag. The small cap thing. Peters out, we get a correction, or is it just narrow and it's megas. Again, all things are on the table. That's why we use charts. This is why technical analysis is so valuable.

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 26:37

How would you know? See, this is what I don't get. When people say, oh, I know the outperform. I look at a. I look at a table of performance over the last one, three, and six months, and that's how I know what's outperforming

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 26:55

It's crazy,

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 26:56

crazy. You gotta, you gotta know the behavior around it.

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 26:59

right? You can literally using candle charts, observe, supply and demand interaction. Like, yeah. Using tables. And I love that you said that tables versus charts, charts so much better than tables.

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 27:11

What does that tell you? Okay. Aerospace is, is up 25%. It's the best performing industry over the last three months. I'm making up that number, but, okay. So what does that tell you about, oh, should I be adding this to client portfolios?

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 27:29

Yeah, it feels like you're, it feels like you're doing the Little Claw game that game at Chuck E. Cheese, where you, you're just taking the claw and trying to pick at something. I don't think tables tell you anything. Really hard to manage risk with that too. cause where, know, how if using, if you're using tables, and I should clarify just numbers on a screen, not charts on a screen. Like how do you identify where risk might be increasing? Like where there's. of interest where sellers have taken control in the past. You really have to be aware of that, and tables don't tell you that.

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 28:07

No, they don't.

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 28:08

So I said we were gonna cover a lot of things today. probably give a little bit of love to bonds and crypto. What are you seeing in those spots?

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 28:19

Crypto man, uh, Bitcoin a little flaggy failed, uh, I guess that was over last weekend. Uh, we're back below 95,000 or 94. 93. 94,000.

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 28:37

You talking

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 28:37

yeah.

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 28:38

on Bitcoin?

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 28:39

Yeah. Terrible. But again, I mean, hot mess since, you know, almost a year now. It is some nice breakouts, but it's been, it hasn't been a smoother ride as far as our performance. Bitcoin now equal to the s and p Going back to March, 2024.

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 28:58

Yeah.

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 28:59

Actually, I could go back. I mean, you can go back to February, 2021. So Bitcoin went from 60,000. Yeah. I mean, a lot of big moves in there just to end up in the same spot as

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 29:12

You've got the dollars getting sold hard here,

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 29:15

Yeah. And that still isn't, I mean, yeah. Having another rough day today that's still not doing anything for. The cryptos.

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 29:25

Right, like, so there, this is a multifaceted comment that I'm about to say the dollar range expansion I would call it daily range expansion. Like when you look at the past two years of what the dollar's done this last week of dollar performance. Has expanded to the downside and you marry that information with a potential half gap, halfway gap in silver. You marry that with what you're seeing outta international. You marry that with the weakness out of crypto, and I think there's a lot of information there. The fact that or other cryptos can't gain traction with the dollar doing what it's done the past week, and then you marry that with what silver has done and what international stocks have done. Seems like it's tradify over defi.

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 30:19

Hmm. Is it really defi anymore though?

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 30:23

No. And that, no, that's a great, that's a

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 30:25

to piss anyone off, but I think that thought was lost.

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 30:29

that's a great, that that plot was lost. I, I completely

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 30:32

I.

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 30:32

that because you trying to tell me that the dollar's not a digital currency because I go to the gas station and I don't actually exchange cash. I digitally do. And it's relatively anonymous.

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 30:49

Well, and so what hap right is the, I mean, it's another thing where I actually read a good theory on this the other day of let's say everyone. Had to put like everything got moved to the blockchain. I'm pretty sure there would be more than the 22 million coins that they're supposed to be out there. Whether it's through derivative, like

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 31:14

Yeah, derivatives.

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 31:15

exposure, whatever synthetic exposure people claim to have to an X amount. Lot of Bitcoins. Um, yeah, and it's still like, I think we talked about it. Yeah, people can say, oh, I, I think you can buy a Tesla with Bitcoin. I think you can buy some stuff on Amazon with Bitcoin. My kid's daycare does not take Bitcoin unfortunately. Nor does the Jiffy L person, nor does Harris Teeter. So and there have been some cryptos that have held up where I think Kevin brought up Dash.

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 31:54

Yeah.

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 31:55

Kevin brought up Dash. Um, but yeah, so I, you know, I know Crypto for us, we can, and clients too. I mean, I don't go in the client letter every month. I don't go through like 15 crypto charts. I mean, we talk about Bitcoin that's probably what 99% of American households are familiar with. Um, and that kind of, I think suffices is what's going on in crypto. And maybe that changes maybe in 20 years. Bitcoin's like the stupid old uncle that never turned anything. And we are buying

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 32:31

Yeah, it's

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 32:31

with Litecoin or Solana. I don't know. You can actually see Solana bounce here.

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 32:38

The MySpace of socials. It's the a OL of internet. yeah, I, Bitcoin could become irrelevant, but right now it is the market cap wa.

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 32:48

And it's the most accessible, right? I mean, we can sit here and talk about Dash holding up well, but to your average person, that means not like they're not getting on Coinbase and buying Dash, their advisor's, not trading Dash like it's. 99% of the world doesn't care. The dashes or shi Binos holding up, well, it's not, but

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 33:10

Right.

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 33:11

you know, whatever

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 33:12

and what does that tell you? If, if it's priced in dollars, then the dollar's getting, I'm gonna, I'm gonna say the word smoked, like,

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 33:19

it is.

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 33:20

and that can't move higher, but yet it's precious metals. Kudos to the metal bugs once again.

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 33:27

What if crypto is just a P SIOP to get people hating metals?

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 33:33

Or it's just a way

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 33:35

That's useless.

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 33:36

From a, from a first principles perspective or like a, the thing that's great about blockchain is real time efficiency. and I don't mean that from a mechanical perspective, I just mean that from like documenting. You know, I, I do think there's something to a ledger and smart contracts and tokenization. Like, I think tokenization is amazing. I think smart track, track smart contracts are amazing, but as far as transactional speed, that's really what we're looking for, right? Like we want transactional speed. Liquidity is king,

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 34:14

T plus zero.

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 34:15

right? T plus zero, like that, is the goal, which. I don't, I don't know that solves that. It

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 34:25

Okay.

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 34:25

lot of other things.

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 34:27

I have another question for you. So Bitcoin sucks. You established, so what do you think is up with like the Wag me and DAP holding up so well?

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 34:39

That actually. I like that question because you're saying. The miners of crypto are doing better than

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 34:47

Yeah. I mean, I. I, I keep, get involved in wg. When you say wag me tickers. WGMI I don't know, I, maybe they're not mining Bitcoin anymore. Maybe they're just crypto miners. The ETF is called Bitcoin Mining. ETFI don't know. I don't listen. Like Dave, I think, uh, he mentioned it earlier. Um, but yeah, pretty clear. I don't, I don't research. Companies too deep. Um, I don't sit in on conference calls, so I don't know, maybe they're not bitcoin, strictly bitcoin miners anymore or, but yeah, I don't,

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 35:26

Well, even like, okay, so the largest waiting. wag, WGMI is ire.

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 35:33

that's pretty good.

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 35:34

Alright, so ire, are we really crypto or because IRE is really about energy and infrastructure for AI Like when we talk about like Nvidia chips and things like that, IRE does a lot of the building out of the infrastructure that holds those chips. So, is wag me really? Like, is is, is Velcro gonna be changing the name of this ETF in the future? Because it's not really a Bitcoin mining, it's a just technology infrastructure. ETF, like cipher. eight. Some of those

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 36:14

Yeah.

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 36:15

mining, but then you got like, but then you got like applied digital bit deer. Like there's,

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 36:22

Like there's

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 36:23

there's things that are Bitcoin mining, but the largest holdings or the largest holding is ire, is not Bitcoin. I ki

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 36:32

no.

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 36:32

of, I kind of feel this falls along the lines of like, Nvidia being the largest holding in a tech ETF. Like are you saying its technology is doing well or are you saying it's semi semiconductors is doing well, but it's, it's a nuanced

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 36:45

That's a good point.

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 36:46

Both are true, but we'll see. I don't know if I answered your question there.

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 36:51

Yeah. See, when you look at Cipher operates industrial scale data centers in the like. That's what I don't know. I see. And this goes back to, and you can, you know, they, they teased, uh, intervening about it, but I'll be the first to tell you, man, sometimes I just like the chart.

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 37:11

Right.

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 37:11

Don't dive deep on what they do. I mean, I know what industry they're in, but like I couldn't tell you. Oh yeah. 30% of their top line revenue comes from X and 10% comes from Y. I'm not getting into all that. We don't have time for that.

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 37:26

Well, and I, I think that's a really important distinction is it's kinda like when the quarterback drops back. We got, we got the final. So what? Second to final weekend of football coming up.

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 37:37

Only three football games left man.

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 37:40

when the quarterback drops back and he has his pre-snap read and then his read as he is dropping back, does he care what the jersey number is of the defender? Heck no. I don't need to sit there and know what Irene Ires, I don't even know. I'm saying that right sheet looks like. In the end price, which is the final arbiter, value, the manifestation of opinion price contains all the fundamental opinions, rational or irrational in it. That's what price is like. You could show up to a farmer's market and someone's buying the grapefruit from X, Y, z, farmer. Do I really know? Need to know the motivation. Motivation behind that. Do I need to know, oh, this person actually needs grapefruit. Or they just like grapefruit or they understand that this is a great time to buy grapefruit, or that the grapefruit is some way on

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 38:36

Maybe they're arbitraging it, they're gonna go down the street and sell it at a higher price.

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 38:41

right. Like I get the whole like, I need a sexy narrative. I need. Like this great storyline. I understand that that's the way our lives work is we love stories. People like to be in their own movies. Price captures all of that. I don't need to be on a conference call. don't need to understand the balance sheet because what?

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 39:02

Did you sell stocks because of Greenland

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 39:05

Right, That's a, that's a great point.

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 39:08

Ah, Greenland. Okay. I don't know, man.

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 39:13

Exactly. And we better touch base on this really quick bonds

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 39:18

Bonds. Yeah, man. Not going down. Well, yields aren't going down. Bonds aren't going down.

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 39:24

Right.

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 39:25

Sloppy. They've been in a sloppy up trend since. Late October. Yeah, I mean there is a big gap. If you look at the 30 year, there is a big gap. I mean, this is, this five per 4.9 to 5% area is something. So we'll see.

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 39:45

I just think it's interesting that. Has the Fed not been cutting rates since

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 39:50

been.

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 39:51

September of last year, and we've seen rates higher since then. So the market knows more than anybody. You and me, people listening to this, the supposed experts at the Fed, the bond market knows more. And when you see convertible bonds doing well. You see junk bonds doing well, and honestly, we had this discussion as a team this week. Did you expect CCC credit spreads to look like they did this week or the past few weeks? I didn't.

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 40:24

No,

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 40:25

There like they continue to be bullish. Behavior, risk on behavior, I should say.

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 40:30

in junk. I mean junk versus IE. F. Too bad

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 40:35

Well,

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 40:35

actually.

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 40:36

like,

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 40:36

Yeah.

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 40:37

move just a little up, little or a little down the risk scale like HYG versus IEF, like not, not your triple C crap, but your mid grade

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 40:49

Your bees

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 40:50

not bad.

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 40:52

double Bs.

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 40:53

So it continues to be. A, a market where we've seen a little bit of broadening out. You brought up the, the breadth piece. We've seen small caps and, and international do well. And when you talk about international, even emerging markets doing well, on behavior, do we see a return to megs here? Like a, a, a magnificent seven here.

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 41:15

I think it's on the table.

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 41:16

it says it's gotta be on the table. Precious metals continue to be on a tear. You continue to see risk on behavior in the bond market and I'm sorry, I don't know any other discipline where you're able to an analyze all these different things. Inter market analysis, if you're not top down, you're not technical analysis. You can be the best fundamental ANA analyst and you're either gonna get caught in the weeds at a micro level, like in the balance sheet level. Or some macro narrative level. It's only technical analysis where you can like digest all these pieces of information. Keep an open mind, have a thesis. Change your thesis. only technical analysis that does that, That's why we use it. Alright,

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 42:03

tell, I tell the fundamental boys, I say, you're just not, you're not putting enough hours. You're not putting enough hours. It's not enough conference calls. It's not enough K tens. It's not like you, you're not digging, you're not digging deep enough, more hours on the weekend. Leave your children up.

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 42:20

Yeah. You put 80 hours in. You better put 90 in. Oh, that's such a good point. I better highlight, I always say that I'm gonna highlight the sport of this podcast early in the podcast, but I think there's something about me that doesn't like podcasts where they. Do the supporters right at the beginning, I do need to respect the adaptive select ETF, which supports this podcast and it's listed on the New York Stock Exchange under ticker A DPV, which helps investors access to the most prevalent factors in markets, momentum and relative strength using proprietary identification methods. The adaptive Select ETF attempts to own the strongest 25 large cut stocks when the market is in an uptrend. And since not all market environments are the same. Adaptive Select seeks to prevent extended declines by moving the short-term treasury bills and cash during long-term market. Downtrends investors can find out more including how to invest in A DPV by visiting ad pv etf.com or calling 1-833-880-FIVE 200. As always, investing involves risk, including possible loss of principle ad pvs distributed like Quasar Distributors, LLC Ian. for doing this show with me again. We probably should wrap it up. We appreciate everybody listening. Please give us a ranking on your platform or choice and also share it with your friends. It's a compliment to us. We thank you.

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 43:41

To go sit through a hour and a half compliance meeting.

david_1_01-23-2026_103654 43:44

Let's do it.

ian_1_01-23-2026_113651 43:46

Have a great weekend everyone.