The Weekly Trend
The Weekly Trend
Episode 285: Shot Across the Bow
In this week's episode, David and Ian discuss how the strongest areas appear to be getting hit the hardest to close out the week, an update on seasonality, sector rotation dynamics, if the move in precious metals and mining is over, the VIX, and large cap tech participation.
Welcome back to the Weekly Trend Podcast. Today is Friday, January 30th, 2026 s and P 500, currently sitting at 69 28. I'm David Zarling. I'm here with Ian McMillan. Fridays sometimes can change a week.
ian_1_01-30-2026_123818:Friday stinks sometimes.
david_1_01-30-2026_113819:Yeah, everybody's talks about case of the Mondays, but maybe we got a case of the Fridays.
ian_1_01-30-2026_123818:It's bad. We didn't have a three day weekend,
david_1_01-30-2026_113819:Wouldn't that be nice?
ian_1_01-30-2026_123818:then this would've never happened. Right?
david_1_01-30-2026_113819:everybody talks about 24 hour trading being the new thing. What if
ian_1_01-30-2026_123818:Oh my gosh. Can you imagine
david_1_01-30-2026_113819:yeah, I
ian_1_01-30-2026_123818:out enjoying brunch with your family and then junior silver miners are down. 14%.
david_1_01-30-2026_113819:could happen. You might start yelling at the kids
ian_1_01-30-2026_123818:Yeah. In public, in front of everyone.
david_1_01-30-2026_113819:waitress might not. He might not get a tip.
ian_1_01-30-2026_123818:What's that guy's deal? Oh, he's,
david_1_01-30-2026_113819:24, 24 hour training.
ian_1_01-30-2026_123818:Yeah. Happens. But I mean, a, a, everything that was. Working the best, I guess. Uh, certainly getting hit today. I guess it's, they say, you know, when we had that gap down two weeks ago on a Monday, they said, or was that this week where they were all about Greenland?
david_1_01-30-2026_113819:Oh, you're talking equities.
ian_1_01-30-2026_123818:Yeah.
david_1_01-30-2026_113819:Yeah. That was on Tuesday, which would've been the first day of the week,
ian_1_01-30-2026_123818:Right.
david_1_01-30-2026_113819:January 20th. If there was a gap down, but your point is metals and mining, which have been a tremendous leader. Definitely having a shot across the bow today, on the 30th of January, 2026.
ian_1_01-30-2026_123818:And it's not like this was a, uh, scenario where the chart was rolling over.
david_1_01-30-2026_113819:Mm-hmm.
ian_1_01-30-2026_123818:I mean, very, very strong. You could use the word parabolic. Uh, but we've been that way. I mean, we've been that way since, for a while now.
david_1_01-30-2026_113819:Yeah, I mean, anytime you're sit, anytime you're sitting 140% away from a 200 day, a rising
ian_1_01-30-2026_123818:Yeah,
david_1_01-30-2026_113819:day, probably gonna have some. We know, we know trees don't grow to the moon.
ian_1_01-30-2026_123818:they don't.
david_1_01-30-2026_113819:but there's also no way to, I, I mean, I really wish they rang the bell, I'm not saying this is a top and silver. You know, you look back to 78, 19 78, 19 79, you had some intraday daily volatility on that move. But we also know that. Rocket ships eventually come back to the earth. Trees don't grow to the moon, you know? Is this the shot? Is this when metals in mining off for the foreseeable future? Could be. Is this a false break breakdown in flush out of the dollar?
ian_1_01-30-2026_123818:Yeah.
david_1_01-30-2026_113819:Because that range expansion we saw last week to the downside in the dollar trade, away to dollar using DXY. Dixie pretty aggressive. And maybe today we're getting a clue that this was a type of flush, exhausting the sellers of the dollar. And are we gonna move higher because we're back above the prior closing lows, near 96 50, currently sitting at 96, 93. Could be,
ian_1_01-30-2026_123818:Yeah, not a lot of places to hide on a day like today could have been long. Vietnam
david_1_01-30-2026_113819:Hmm.
ian_1_01-30-2026_123818:could have been long Indian small caps, but I wasn't.
david_1_01-30-2026_113819:And I do find it. I
ian_1_01-30-2026_123818:What is.
david_1_01-30-2026_113819:it interesting that we haven't. Had an 80% upside day since November,
ian_1_01-30-2026_123818:And so we, we haven't had an 80% upside day, but then, I mean, we got bullish percent back up to the high sixties, which I'm sure that's, but yeah.
david_1_01-30-2026_113819:Decline lines.
ian_1_01-30-2026_123818:no, continuations, no Rusty continuations. Maybe that kind of got overlooked because small client participation was, well,
david_1_01-30-2026_113819:Decline lines.
ian_1_01-30-2026_123818:Vince's decline lines were not too bad.
david_1_01-30-2026_113819:No.
ian_1_01-30-2026_123818:was good. Nasdaq a little. But the index was also pretty weak, so.
david_1_01-30-2026_113819:Mixed bag. Mixed bag this week, I think. I think when you look at a combination of, are we gonna get a positive January, that January barometer, which we're still positive as of today, so if we closed here, we have a few hours to go, we'd have a positive January barometer, but you mix in that February seasonality is pretty sketchy.
ian_1_01-30-2026_123818:Yeah, you brought that up.
david_1_01-30-2026_113819:yeah, corrective behavior in midterm years. And on the one hand, you've got semiconductors holding up. Well, on the other hand, you have some weak weakness outta discretionary versus staples. One day doesn't make a trend, but you could see, you could see a scenario where February's pretty weak.
ian_1_01-30-2026_123818:Yeah, if you were to look back in 30 days, 28 days, I guess I could see it.
david_1_01-30-2026_113819:not a year this year.
ian_1_01-30-2026_123818:Aerospace has been weak for a couple weeks, actually, peaked, yeah, two Fridays ago. If you're using ITA.
david_1_01-30-2026_113819:Aerospace and defense.
ian_1_01-30-2026_123818:Emerging markets been very strong until today.
david_1_01-30-2026_113819:Well, and one day doesn't make a trend. A lot of these things, even with today, it's not like the damage is complete. You could see emerging markets versus s and p pulling back into its breakout level That took place in mid-January. Pulling back and retesting that level be perfectly normal. Doesn't make it easy. But when you got things like Microsoft major weighting in the s and p with a pretty large gap down, I mean, that's a hyper liquid. Stock trading, you know, 30 million shares a You have it gapping down on earnings. Not ideal. I mean, 8% gap down on Microsoft on earnings.
ian_1_01-30-2026_123818:Yeah, and it was a double beat.
david_1_01-30-2026_113819:So it's not about, it's not about the earnings themselves, it's about the. Price reaction, earnings. And I do, I do. Part of me wonders if there's a, a narrative here for software in general.
ian_1_01-30-2026_123818:Brutal.
david_1_01-30-2026_113819:you brought up before, like Salesforce, CRM, you know, software as a service kind of getting hit. I
ian_1_01-30-2026_123818:And XSW has been pretty weak for a while.
david_1_01-30-2026_113819:IGV pretty weak, which is the expanded tech software,
ian_1_01-30-2026_123818:Very weak.
david_1_01-30-2026_113819:Previous darlings, like app loving, you know, below important levels add its 200 day, which is rising. You know, I suppose this, the, the, the thing that could be said about the dollar showing a flush is the same thing out of some of these things that, that we're flushing out the weak weekends could be, but even Bitcoin, I mean, Bitcoin back below 90,000 trying to hold
ian_1_01-30-2026_123818:Yeah. 80, 81.
david_1_01-30-2026_113819:Lows from November.
ian_1_01-30-2026_123818:Yeah, it was a pretty, you had the failed break out there and around what, like a couple weeks ago? 18th, 19th. And, uh, straight down from there.
david_1_01-30-2026_113819:What how much stock, or no pun intended, how much, weight you put on sector performance year to date?
ian_1_01-30-2026_123818:Um, I mean, I always like to see risks taking.
david_1_01-30-2026_113819:Okay.
ian_1_01-30-2026_123818:Obviously, I mean, you wanna see the, the uncool stuff, the boring stuff, utility, staples, real estate, and I can throw energy in there. Kind of wanna see that as under performers, right? I mean, if I had like my ideal market scenario. Given, you know, what we've experienced the last five to 10 years. Um, I, yes, I know there's periods where energy and utilities outperform and stocks do fine, and we've covered those ad nauseum on this podcast over the years. Um, but yeah, if you were, if you were to say, Ian, create your perfect market environment. I just wanna see the cool stuff. Tech, probably wanna see financials do, well, not the sexiest, but you probably wanna see it as a top performer.
david_1_01-30-2026_113819:right. It doesn't The top
ian_1_01-30-2026_123818:doesn't have to be the top, but
david_1_01-30-2026_113819:as long as it's participating.
ian_1_01-30-2026_123818:yeah. Which I don't know what we're gonna do with banks, man. I know we talk about banks all the time, but much like Russell, they just. Never quite seemed to keep her going. So where were you going with that? Do you have year to date? Numbers.
david_1_01-30-2026_113819:yeah. You know, if you look at year to date. So through January, this being the last trading day of January, you have your top performers energy. Next in line would be materials then,
ian_1_01-30-2026_123818:Okay.
david_1_01-30-2026_113819:then financials and industrials. Your worst performer year to date is financials and even, I mean. Tech XLK, year to date,
ian_1_01-30-2026_123818:XC is probably pretty bad.
david_1_01-30-2026_113819:underperforming. So
ian_1_01-30-2026_123818:Yeah.
david_1_01-30-2026_113819:it's one of those things where like when you use the, the study, the practice of technical analysis, and you look at sector rotation and market. Dynamics. We have a year to date scenario where energy and materials are leading and that tends to be the leadership group near bull market tops, dare I say. And
ian_1_01-30-2026_123818:Huh.
david_1_01-30-2026_113819:that Friday, you know, Friday price behavior, it doesn't dictate a full trend. I, I think today is a shot across the bow, not only for metals and mining, but for we have one month worth of data. You have energy and materials being your leaders, financials negative on the ear. Kind of wanna see this fix itself quickly.
ian_1_01-30-2026_123818:I hear you. Yeah.
david_1_01-30-2026_113819:I mean, even look at ratios like discretionary versus staples, the cap weight diversion of that relationship's always kind of hard because it's so tilted towards Tesla and Amazon. But when you look at equal weight, you know, we definitely not haven't recorded a new high in that
ian_1_01-30-2026_123818:We not cru
david_1_01-30-2026_113819:No,
ian_1_01-30-2026_123818:cap weight. It also doesn't look that great.
david_1_01-30-2026_113819:no.
ian_1_01-30-2026_123818:It's a mess.
david_1_01-30-2026_113819:So you kind of, you wanna see some of these relationships resolve themselves to the upside pretty, pretty quickly here
ian_1_01-30-2026_123818:This is.
david_1_01-30-2026_113819:well, we're allowed to change our minds, you know, we've been bullish for how long now? And I think evidence is starting to stack up that maybe things are not all that well. I mean, on, on the flip side, are definitely still holding up really well.
ian_1_01-30-2026_123818:They are.
david_1_01-30-2026_113819:You know, one of the best practices you can do is when you have a pretty, when tape just see those things that are holding up well and semiconductors are holding up well. a good thing. I don't wanna get too somber on you, but we're also heading into a February seasonality period for a midterm year. That's not great. Right, right. We're still in the six month period of best market performance. That's November through April, but of those six months, February and a midterm year. Not so great. So would we, can we really be surprised in an environment where energy and materials are the best performers, financials are the worst performers coming upon in February where we have some type of corrective behavior in February? I don't think we get to be surprised by that at all. I realize that I'm saying this with s and p. Still positive on the year and only 2%, one and a half percent away from the highs. But man, 7,000 seems to be a level on s and p 500 to try to get through.
ian_1_01-30-2026_123818:Unbreakable
david_1_01-30-2026_113819:I mean, we've been
ian_1_01-30-2026_123818:for now.
david_1_01-30-2026_113819:couple, couple months, November, December, January, to get through 7,000. Maybe there's plenty of people willing to sell here.
ian_1_01-30-2026_123818:It seems to be selling stuff that I own.
david_1_01-30-2026_113819:Do you think? You think metals and mining, it's over.
ian_1_01-30-2026_123818:I don't know. That's tough. I think you gotta wait and see what this dollar does. This is such a dramatic move. For like a 80 bip move in the dollar. We'll see. Could just be people. I don't know. I don't know.
david_1_01-30-2026_113819:I love that. Because no one knows. Neither of us know nobody listening, knows the talking heads on financial tv. Definitely don't know. X doesn't know, but I think it's, it is worth paying attention just to those areas that have shown strength year to date. Those that have not, I mean,'cause financials had been set setting up real nice. And for them not to, to not follow through. It's like anybody, right? That person doesn't follow through. That's a little bit of like, Hmm, I wonder what that's about.
ian_1_01-30-2026_123818:I think KE is a great example of. Which is regional. It's just like, what are you doing? It's just, it actually has maybe not the best example. It's held up, but it doesn't. What is this up here? Like 69. We'll see. What about the vix? Is the VIX making a big move?
david_1_01-30-2026_113819:I think, I think that's also fascinating. You know, we've got VIX sitting at above 17 currently. There's a 200 day on the vix, whether you like to use technical analysis on the VIX or not. Previous times that we've. Climbed into volatility territory that's in the twenties for the VIX has been a bottoming process. Does it move higher? Don't know, but I, I do find it interesting that since the end of December, the VIX has been rising and so is the s and p. And so you've had this pent up volatility waiting to happen. And here we are on January 30th with some apparent volatility across the market. I mean, we as, as of this recording, there's, I mean, only like 20 some percent of stocks are up today. I'm not saying, I'm not saying it has to be, like you said, somber and like it's over. But there's definitely some things that the market needs to prove. I mean, we financials need to get back into positive TED territory. You know, whether you like it or not, January 1st is a mile marker in the market. It'd be nice to see financials regain a positive return,
ian_1_01-30-2026_123818:Boy, JP Morgan's had a rough start of the year.
david_1_01-30-2026_113819:right? And that's a bellwether. I mean, JP Morgan's a bellwether stock. And speaking of bellwether. Freeport Copper,
ian_1_01-30-2026_123818:Is copper. Yeah. Copper's taking it on the chin today.
david_1_01-30-2026_113819:you know, 64 on Freeport Mac. FCX had been a brand new all time high, exceeding the 2008 and 2011 highs. And if we're gonna sell back below that, if this turns into some type of shooting star or event where it was a false breakout on Freeport Macin, if you're gonna have JP Morgan and Freeport Macin do that. But on the flip side, I mean, you still have things like Caterpillar. I mean, caterpillar looks pretty good.
ian_1_01-30-2026_123818:So are we going, are we, are we going into recession? If Caterpillar looks good, I guess we could,
david_1_01-30-2026_113819:That's, that's a good point. Yeah. Yeah. How, how risk off are we, if, if emerging markets broke out and you've got industrials doing well, probably not all that risk off. That doesn't mean you can't have your standard 10 to 15% equity correction, because That's right. The average return for the s and p 500, we're all familiar with this eight to 9% per year. It's the least likely outcome. Meaning numbers, eight or 9% average. They're not. The amount of times that's actually happened is extremely limited and in between. Start of the year and the end of the year, and that positive return that you get, that average return, there's typically on average, a 10% drawdown. Did that start today?
ian_1_01-30-2026_123818:Let's do it. Let's just do it and get it over with.
david_1_01-30-2026_113819:get it over with just like last year. Last year. When March and April. Decent corrective move for the market and
ian_1_01-30-2026_123818:Yep.
david_1_01-30-2026_113819:ripped the bandaid off. Is that what you're saying?
ian_1_01-30-2026_123818:That would be my choice. But no one's ever asked me, no one's ever surveyed me.
david_1_01-30-2026_113819:The beatings will continue until the morale improves. Mind that, what
ian_1_01-30-2026_123818:Anything else? I don't know. What are we doing in rates? I guess nothing. Same uptrend since September.
david_1_01-30-2026_113819:It looks like Jim Harbaugh didn't get the fed chair job,
ian_1_01-30-2026_123818:Hmm. That sucks. He's a dove.
david_1_01-30-2026_113819:is he?
ian_1_01-30-2026_123818:Yeah. Have you ever heard his
david_1_01-30-2026_113819:Wait, do I have the wrong? I think I got the wrong Harbaugh, not Jim Harbaugh.
ian_1_01-30-2026_123818:But he does lots of. Speaking engagements on fiscal policy. He's a very multi-talented man, not just a football coach, an economist.
david_1_01-30-2026_113819:Supposedly we're supposed to get a.
ian_1_01-30-2026_123818:Yeah, that's the big Hubb that everyone. Seems to be an a tizzy over new fed chair. I don't know. I never heard of the guy. But people certainly, like everything else, people certainly have their opinions.
david_1_01-30-2026_113819:So what people are good at having opinions. What do you think about small caps?
ian_1_01-30-2026_123818:Um, I mean, you know, if I look at IWM, obviously if we're above 2 45, 2 44, it's fine
david_1_01-30-2026_113819:Agreed.
ian_1_01-30-2026_123818:relative chart. I, if you finally got the 200 day. Kind of moving upwards. So that is turned into a tailwind, but definitely not, not a week of outperformance. And I'd say NASDAQ had a pretty good well up until today. Although I think NASDAQ is, yeah. Outperforming it today as well, but
david_1_01-30-2026_113819:Nasdaq, you using the queues.
ian_1_01-30-2026_123818:yeah. And then you think about regional banks, you think about, I mean, biotech's kind of stalled out.
david_1_01-30-2026_113819:So what do you, let me ask you this, you brought the NASDAQ 100, so you got QQQ Nasdaq 100, responding to the$635 level. Tried to record a new all time high. Didn't quite get there, but when you compare Q, Q, Q versus s and p, we're not even close. We're recording a, a lower high, like we've been in a downtrend of Q, Q, Q versus s and p since November 4th. Meanwhile, Q. Q since November 4th. Has been a little higher. So we call that a divergence, a relative strength divergence.
ian_1_01-30-2026_123818:Mm-hmm.
david_1_01-30-2026_113819:If QQQ is ha has a pretty large negative divergence versus s and p, that could lead to a little bit more bearish stance. If the, if the big cap tech, big cap growth, you know, you wanna look at MGK mega cap growth. Didn't match QQQ. So MGK is even more discounted versus that's and p since November 4th. I mean, you, you still need your star players perform. You know, I, I, look at the box and they're just so hard to watch. Giannis doesn't wanna play for whatever reason. Way below felt 500. How many games away from elimination from the playoffs?
ian_1_01-30-2026_123818:Really
david_1_01-30-2026_113819:Yeah. If you, if you, if you're not gonna have Giannis playing, if you're not gonna have the Nasdaq 100 playing in this game, if you're not gonna have Microsoft or Apple participating in this game, that's gonna be really hard for the team overall to, to do well.
ian_1_01-30-2026_123818:it is.
david_1_01-30-2026_113819:I mean, shoot, we don't even have Pat Mahomes in the playoffs in the Super Bowl. I really thought this was gonna be Josh Aller. I thought Lamar Jackson,
ian_1_01-30-2026_123818:I can't believe they fired.
david_1_01-30-2026_113819:pat Mahomes. Yeah. I can't believe that either.
ian_1_01-30-2026_123818:They're so dumb. Eight straight years to the playoffs after. 12 year absence.
david_1_01-30-2026_113819:People, man, people be fickle and I get it. You know, like this was your, probably your shot with Pat Mahomes and Lamar Jackson outta the playoff. You know, like
ian_1_01-30-2026_123818:Yeah, that's a good point.
david_1_01-30-2026_113819:this should have been Josh Allen's here and
ian_1_01-30-2026_123818:Script writers is not meant to be.
david_1_01-30-2026_113819:Nope. Patriots back in crazy. I got
ian_1_01-30-2026_123818:Yeah.
david_1_01-30-2026_113819:for Drake May. I mean, good quarterback also married his high school sweetheart. I like that. Hope that
ian_1_01-30-2026_123818:Yeah.
david_1_01-30-2026_113819:But man, we gotta wait. We gotta wait another week for that. And why
ian_1_01-30-2026_123818:Another week.
david_1_01-30-2026_113819:why isn't the Super Bowl on a Saturday?
ian_1_01-30-2026_123818:I guess tradition
david_1_01-30-2026_113819:Tradition. Tradition.
ian_1_01-30-2026_123818:as an American, you know what Sundays are for.
david_1_01-30-2026_113819:or you have, Mon Monday should be a day off.
ian_1_01-30-2026_123818:Oh, you're gonna be getting lit during the bad bunny performance.
david_1_01-30-2026_113819:Bad bunny. Yeah. I keep hearing about this bad bunny halftime performance. I don't even know who bad bunny is. My
ian_1_01-30-2026_123818:Yeah,
david_1_01-30-2026_113819:to know
ian_1_01-30-2026_123818:we'll get censored.
david_1_01-30-2026_113819:should I be, should I be queuing
ian_1_01-30-2026_123818:We're gonna,
david_1_01-30-2026_113819:bunny on the Spotify?
ian_1_01-30-2026_123818:I don't know, you, uh, you give it a whirl and then get back to me what you think.
david_1_01-30-2026_113819:Okay.
ian_1_01-30-2026_123818:I don't, I think he sings in Spanish, so.
david_1_01-30-2026_113819:That's not politically charged at all.
ian_1_01-30-2026_123818:No, it's not.
david_1_01-30-2026_113819:Interesting. Interesting. So.
ian_1_01-30-2026_123818:A bunch of American bigots could use some Spanish music.
david_1_01-30-2026_113819:Yeah, apparently that's the narrative too.
ian_1_01-30-2026_123818:Yeah.
david_1_01-30-2026_113819:So we have week February seasonality. We have queues under underperforming the S and PXLE energy and XLB materials leading year to date. Meanwhile there's still strength out of like international, like even look at like Spain, Austria,
ian_1_01-30-2026_123818:I hit today, didn't they?
david_1_01-30-2026_113819:oh, they had to per heavily mining.
ian_1_01-30-2026_123818:Yeah. Down seven,
david_1_01-30-2026_113819:These things happen. They.
ian_1_01-30-2026_123818:silvers down 28. Ooh.
david_1_01-30-2026_113819:Hey, double-edged sword.
ian_1_01-30-2026_123818:Is it? Is.
david_1_01-30-2026_113819:Give and take away.
ian_1_01-30-2026_123818:They'll fix it, right? I mean, they'll fix this.
david_1_01-30-2026_113819:no idea. Parabolic. Uptrends are the hardest. I do feel for those who might have gotten involved late that felt
ian_1_01-30-2026_123818:Yeah.
david_1_01-30-2026_113819:that they needed to get involved in silver now or last two weeks,
ian_1_01-30-2026_123818:Yeah. You did lose lose two weeks of gains today.
david_1_01-30-2026_113819:one day markets be like that. What else, Ian, what else you wanna cover? For our listeners, and I, and I do apologize. I, I realize it's, you know, being a little bit more a somber of an episode, but I, I do think there's some damage done today if we don't recover by the end of the day. I think, I think there's the old adage, strong opinions loosely held, or I would call'em strong thesis, loose, loosely held. You have to have a thesis on market direction. You have to have. management protocol that says your thesis is, is either correct or questionable or incorrect. And it, it is one of the powers of technical analysis is it lets you know, like, when am I wrong? And, and maybe that's where we should pivot to is like, where, where is the herd wrong? is the bull market wrong? And I think you have to start with. Something like the s and p 500, if it can't hold, first of all it's it's January 1st price level, which we call the zero line on our team, and then you have this point of control at 68 48. If we can't hold that and if we can't hold the volume weighted average price from the all time high, which is currently in that same level, 6,900, if we can't hold 6,900.
ian_1_01-30-2026_123818:Yeah, 6,900 and I know we were down there last, you know, we talked about that gap from January 20th, but we recovered in two days. Okay. I mean, we're getting, it's getting a little lethargic. I mean, we got a little lethargic last July and August and kind of made it. We're able to make it out of that, but we'll see.
david_1_01-30-2026_113819:And then you, you do have a rising 200, a 200 days at 64 28. You have these important lows in the s and p 500, near 65 50. If you're losing those, probably some corrective behavior, but I mean. A correction to the 200 day is only 7% away. So are we correcting 7% into a 200 day in February and the market moves higher after that. Also, perfectly normal time will
ian_1_01-30-2026_123818:Yeah.
david_1_01-30-2026_113819:And maybe it's not 7,000 that it's struggling with. Maybe it's 6 9, 9, 9. know the market bottomed during the great financial crisis at 6, 6, 6. Are we gonna have a major top at six? Nine? Nine? Nine? Could be.
ian_1_01-30-2026_123818:NASDAQ edits 2.618 extension from the 2022 Bear Market.
david_1_01-30-2026_113819:Really.
ian_1_01-30-2026_123818:Yeah, that's where this double top is coming in at.
david_1_01-30-2026_113819:Hmm. Yeah. And if you're not gonna have, if you're not gonna have Microsoft and Apple and some of the bigger names participating. On the, again, I'll say on the one side you got semiconductors holding up. Well, on the flip side, some of these really big cap tech names like Microsoft and Apple
ian_1_01-30-2026_123818:Yeah, apple Illa two sixty two sixty five, whatever you wanna call it in there. Two 60. Yeah, we'll call it that.
david_1_01-30-2026_113819:I wanna be careful'cause I'm not sitting here saying, oh, the market's at a top. But I do think we get to say that, okay, evidence might be building for a February type normal year correction, you know, somewhere in the minus five to minus 15% range. I don't think that that, that's out of possibility, especially considering whats sectors have le led year to date. Cons and what sectors have not. I think you gotta pay attention to that. I think you gotta pay attention to some weakness out of discretionary versus staples. Weakness out of financials. On the flip side, strength out of strength internationally, we shall see. I know we touched base on Bitcoin a little bit. What about crypto overall? Do you have any thoughts there? Things that you're seeing or looking at? You don't have to, don't wanna force you.
ian_1_01-30-2026_123818:Yeah. Let me wipe my tears away real quick. Yeah, crypto. We've been pretty rough. Crypto miners held up well. So clearly there's been some shift. I mean, those used to be very correlated. But I think Bitcoin piece excuse me, peaked in August, down about 30%, probably now around 35% since August. You had some of these minor ETFs that were up 40, 60, 90%, um, in some cases. So I do find that interesting. I don't know what they're doing today. Probably getting hit a little bit. Yeah. But they look a lot better than crypto. Those in the past, I feel like those would've led, you know, Bitcoin's down 4%. These mining stocks would be down six or seven. So maybe they've shifted away from mining Bitcoin, of course. Michael Sailor's. MicroStrategy. Now it's just called strategy.
david_1_01-30-2026_113819:just called strategy that looks, the strategy looks and has been a dog since summer of last year. And that goes back to, we've talked about this in a couple episodes. The weakness, the weakness since summer of last year out of some of these tech areas. Specifically like this, you know, Bitcoin related or even software related. You know, you look at the software, you know, whether you're looking about looking at HubSpot Monday, Atlassian, CRM, these are all in Workday. These are all in 20 plus percent year to date drawdowns. And some of these are year, you know, one year drawdowns of north of 40%. So while on one hand you have quantum computing, Bitcoin mining, which I would argue could also be AI based software holding up, some of these software names are just abysmal.
ian_1_01-30-2026_123818:Indeed they are.
david_1_01-30-2026_113819:A little bit about precious metals. The move today, whether this is it or not, but you look at historical regarding precious metals, and they are more high. They're high beta. Was that the top? Don't know. We won't know for a little while be interesting to see if there's some consolidation here before moving higher or whether that was the top and even if we see something like the dollar strengthen TBD. But I think back to. You know, the last year's worth of information that we've had from a weight of evidence perspective, this is about as dicey of a market situation as we've had for a while, and you, couldn't be surprised by weaker equities in February, both from a seasonal perspective and some of the things we just highlighted previously on this, on this episode, just where strength is and where it's not. And who knows, maybe we're here a week from now recording another episode, and these problems have resolved themselves. S and p's finally cleared. 6, 9, 9, 9 or 7,000. Time will tell, and that's the hardest part is there's no guarantees. You know, I can't sit here and say, yep, market's going down. Yep, market's going up. I wish I could, but I'm pretty sure if I had that ability and was accurate about it. Probably not recording a podcast. Not
ian_1_01-30-2026_123818:Yeah,
david_1_01-30-2026_113819:Anything else you wanna cover before we wrap
ian_1_01-30-2026_123818:don't,
david_1_01-30-2026_113819:up? No.
ian_1_01-30-2026_123818:I do not.
david_1_01-30-2026_113819:Alright. This is where I'll highlight the support of this podcast, the Adaptive Select ETF, listed on the New York Stock Exchange under ticker A DPV, helps investors access. Two of the most prevalent factors in markets, momentum and relative strength through proprietary identification methods. The adaptive select ETF attempts only the strongest 25 large cap stocks the market is in an uptrend. And since not all market environments are the same, adaptive select seeks to prevent extended declines by moving short term treasury bills and cash during long term, long term market downtrend. Investors can find out more including how to invest in a PV by visiting ad pv etf.com. Or calling 1 8 3 3 8 0 5 200. Investing involves risk including possible loss principle AD pvs distributed by Quasar Distributors LLC. Ian, thanks for doing this episode with me. Maybe this is a shot across the bow for metals and mining for equities overall. As always, we're Bayesian right? We have to wait for the next information to come in the next. Stats or data to come in for inference, but right now I think it's safe to say that bull market's intact. However, there are definitely some warning signs towards today and this week. Time will tell. We appreciate everybody listening to this podcast. We ask you to give us a high ranking on your platform or choice and share it with your friends and family. That's a compliment to us. Thanks for listening.
ian_1_01-30-2026_123818:Have a great weekend everyone.