The Weekly Trend
The Weekly Trend is a conversation on various publicly-traded markets, seen through the eyes of technical analysis.
The Weekly Trend
Episode 287: New Leader on the Podium?
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In this week's episode David and Ian discuss the S&P remaining range-bound, differentiation between S&P 500 performance and the average performance of it's constituents. They also discuss market breadth, sentiment, the continued drawdown in software, how homebuilders are starting to look interesting along with transportation stocks even with the rough week for trucking stocks. They also discuss seasonality moving into the second half of February, interest rates and what a move lower in rates might mean for the broader market.
Welcome back to the Weekly Trend Podcast. Today is Friday, February 13th, 2026 S&P 500, currently sitting at 68 66. I'm David Zarling. I'm here with Ian McMillan. Are you a Friday the 13th type of guy? Does that make you nervous?
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141No,
david_1_02-13-2026_105142No.
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141superstitious, but not with, not with that stuff.
david_1_02-13-2026_105142You are not the one that freaks out when you get in the elevator and there's a button for 13.
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141No,
david_1_02-13-2026_105142Some people don't schedule their surgeries on 13th. It's weird. I can always call in and get an appointment.
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141that's pretty. that when you do all your appointments just on Friday the 13th,
david_1_02-13-2026_105142Yeah. Get it done.
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141be busy. Why are you at work then?
david_1_02-13-2026_105142Well, I got, we gotta record, we gotta record for the people,
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141Okay. Okay. That's fair. That's
david_1_02-13-2026_105142the,
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141you.
david_1_02-13-2026_105142the people wanna hear about markets and there's plenty to talk about.
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141Ugh. Yeah, guess there is,
david_1_02-13-2026_105142Where do you wanna start?
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141I don't know. Same spot we were at probably last Friday the sixth at the exact same spot the last time we recorded literally. A week ago, at least on futures
david_1_02-13-2026_105142Yep.
ian_1_02-13-2026_11514183. So yeah, up and down some things up and down more than others.
david_1_02-13-2026_105142Yeah, I think it's interesting that we're right, you know, s and p's flat on the year, only 2% away from the all time highs, and we've been in a tight range using the s and p 500 to be clear. Tight range of like two and a half percent over the past two months, so pretty, pretty tight consolidation. But I think it's pretty fair that if you are involved in markets, not all things are the same.
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141I read this morning that materials
david_1_02-13-2026_105142There
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141is up like 15% on the year.
david_1_02-13-2026_105142you haven't.
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141Isn't that amazing? And, and that's, well, it's yeah. I mean, there is the gold and silver thing that didn't, that doesn't sway XLB too much.
david_1_02-13-2026_105142Well, and I,
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141a tailwind, but
david_1_02-13-2026_105142it is interesting that with. The s and p 500, which a lot of people like to use as a metric of what the market is doing and it's fair. But then when you look at the market of stocks, the average movement of stocks underneath the surface has been 10%. So you have a two and a half percent, 2% range over the past month. Underneath the surface stocks, the average stock has moved 10% up or down.
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141Wow.
david_1_02-13-2026_105142That's in a 99th percentile. Markets are normally abnormal and I think it's
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141Yeah. I mean, it's amazing what the s and p has held up.
david_1_02-13-2026_105142well and breath. Breath is held up, right? We talked about that last week with
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141Yeah, NYA
david_1_02-13-2026_105142decline. Yeah. New York.
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141from like a a chart health price action perspective,
david_1_02-13-2026_105142Yeah, the NYA looks good, but breath holding up. But I think it's fair to say pretty big bifurcation, like a split market. For example, 20% of s and P five stocks are 52 52 week highs, which is the first time in six months,
ian_1_02-13-2026_11514125%.
david_1_02-13-2026_10514220. 20%. And what's interesting about that first time in six months, a hundred percent of the time when this happens, the market's higher a year later, but there's typically a 12% drawdown in between.
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141So
david_1_02-13-2026_105142then on the
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141the lookout for a correction at some point.
david_1_02-13-2026_105142right, and then on the flip side, more than 6% of SAP stocks are 52 week low. So 20% of stocks making. New 52 week highs, 6% making 52.
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141a lot.
david_1_02-13-2026_105142I, it's, it's the largest disparity
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141Okay.
david_1_02-13-2026_105142between the two. And that's from market stats. I mean, that's definitely a split split market. And then I think it goes back to sector makeup too. You know, consumer staples, we've talked about that. Doing well.
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141Staples look good.
david_1_02-13-2026_105142Tech has,
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141of look. Okay.
david_1_02-13-2026_105142right? And But tech is not.
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141Tech looks bad. real estate looks bad. That's real estate. You know what really disappoints me, to be honest. Financials, I
david_1_02-13-2026_105142Yeah. And that's the first.
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141day now.
david_1_02-13-2026_105142Correct. Correct. And I, I was gonna highlight before that we were in a situation before today where all sectors were above a 200 day moving average, but financials now below
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141Yeah. Like, come on dude. I mean, if you're a big bank you're fine.
david_1_02-13-2026_105142true.
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141But other than that, really disappointing. I mean the relative chart's been bad for basically peaked 10 months ago
david_1_02-13-2026_105142Which relative chart are we talking about?
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141XLF,
david_1_02-13-2026_105142Oh yeah.
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141so maybe not surprising, but yeah, de definitely disappointing on absolute basis.
david_1_02-13-2026_105142And so that's the first one below a 200 day. I'm not saying the other ones have to follow, but I think it's notable that the leaders, you brought up materials, staples, energy, industrials,
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141Industrials energy. Very nice. Very nice charts.
david_1_02-13-2026_105142And that doesn't have to be a negative. And it, it just shows that there, there's been quite a, a split market, 19% of consumer staple stocks, new all-time highs, while 18% of tech stocks are at new, new lows. So it's, it's really been, and I've been, I've been thinking about this. You know, we're, we're, we're frequent on socials, specifically x. The sentiment on there is so negative, yet the market is 2% away from all time highs. Do you think that besides the finance bros that are on x. It's disproportionately, and I know you curate your own list, right? That's what we're supposed to do, but that it's disproportionately tilted towards people invested in tech, and so that's why the sentiment is so negative.
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141Yeah, I mean, I think it's a lot of the, I mean, those have been the hot stocks, right? Like more specifically software, I guess those have been your hot stocks for the last four or five years, right? Those are the cool brands that
david_1_02-13-2026_105142Right.
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141Your Robin Hoods your coin bases. I don't, I mean, to me those are software. I don't know if they, or. Technically like in an IGV or where those fall I mean even Palantir, that's now Palantir does not look as bad as some of these others.
david_1_02-13-2026_105142But you're high. I think you bring up a good thing with Palantir there.
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141I mean, what about Spotify? Big brand, right? Huge brand. Very popular stock. 2000. 2001. I mean, really for I mean, oh three to last summer, or sorry, 2023 to last summer, this thing was up. I don't know what this is, a thousand percent basically. And then crypto of course. Do you think there's a large overlap between people who are really involved in crypto and then what if you told me those people also into equities assume it was some of the more aggressive type things? Like, I mean, if you are buying fart coin, are you buying. Probably not. Right. That's probably not the like the temperament of those people.
david_1_02-13-2026_105142No, you're probably buying hood. You're probably buying.
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141You're buying, like, you're buying the cool stuff that you and your friends use or you use at work or, you know, and typically that is software.
david_1_02-13-2026_105142Yeah, so I think there's a fair amount of just, I think you bring up a good point, the overlap between crypto and and tech stocks from a end user. Standpoint, and those are the ones that have gotten rocked. You know, Bitcoin's been in a 50% correction, little bounce this week. Software, some of the high flying names. Um, I'm not saying Palantir software, but Palantir app, love and Hood, you brought up Spotify
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141Yeah. App loving is rough.
david_1_02-13-2026_105142and you know, Rob Anderson on, on X just brought up that. There's been nowhere to hide in software stocks. So as, as of February 9th, a hundred percent of software stocks were in a drawdown of at least 20% from their 52 week highs. Almost 80% saw a drawdown greater than 30%. So that's.
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141some of these names PagerDuty, unity Software you mentioned, well, there's Appian team. Do you remember? Team and Zscaler?
david_1_02-13-2026_105142Yeah.
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141I mean, just these were such popular names. Obviously strategy, strategy is, it's known for crypto, but it is holding an IGV yeah, just
david_1_02-13-2026_105142FreshWorks HubSpot,
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141HubSpot, Workday, DocuSign. Mm. Elastic DA Datadog.
david_1_02-13-2026_105142I mean Salesforce, 7% waiting in IGV down 27% year to date.
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141Box AppFolio. I mean, Oracle's down 27% in the last three months.
david_1_02-13-2026_105142Microsoft
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141I.
david_1_02-13-2026_105142down 16% year to date. Now I, I would, you know, that's, that correction's been going on since October of last year. That's, it's down 20, 28%, but really there's been nowhere to hide in software and crypto. Meanwhile, energy industrials, materials doing well. What do you think about home builders?
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141It's a huge question. I mean, they're intriguing. If they've done this before, relative chart is definitely intriguing. Could be breaking a rate of trend. Man, I mean these things actually were really strong up until like later 2024. I don't know. I don't know why. In my mind, I think they've been terrible for years.
david_1_02-13-2026_105142Right. Well, and they were the, they had a divergent bottom coming out of the
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141Yeah,
david_1_02-13-2026_105142Bear Market for the broad market. It had a. A higher low than the rest of the market and was a leader. You know, home builders were a leader coming outta that and that pause back in late 2024. And they've underperformed, but you, they're looking like they're starting to resurge here and that would be a bellwether area. You know, if home builders are doing well, kind of hard to get negative on the, on the market.
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141All right. On the flip side, look what they did to our truckers man.
david_1_02-13-2026_105142Yeah. JB JB Hunt.
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141I. Now there's some stuff like XPO, right? I guess it's hard to JB Hunt now. Okay. I mean, some of this, I guess in context, still strong. They did get hit yesterday.
david_1_02-13-2026_105142Hmm.
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141Like JB Hunt, you could buy JB Hunt here at. Above 2 10, 2 12. That's not financial advice, I'm just saying from a risk reward.
david_1_02-13-2026_105142Well and IYT.
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141that sticks. We want transports to stick. We want the railroads look really good.
david_1_02-13-2026_105142Right. And they've been compressing for a while. Yeah. I mean, the fact that IYT is still holding. Prior highs out of a four year base. Pretty constructive for transports. Not too shabby, but it's been an, it is just been an interesting market. You know, if home builders are gonna lead industrials to the upside, along with a lot of American manufacturing.
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141Shoring.
david_1_02-13-2026_105142Mm-hmm. Make America great again.
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141All right. So you said earlier that sentiment. Do you think people are shortened? Are they shortened?
david_1_02-13-2026_105142Yeah, I mean, the data's out there. Goldman Sachs came out and said, short selling across single stocks last week was the biggest on record going back to 2016. And then
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141Does that mean we're getting to 2017?
david_1_02-13-2026_105142maybe, I mean, counter ba Connor Bates highlighted that the Nasdaq. Put call skew is as extreme as it was liberation, you know, the tariff tantrum, panic levels last year, and then the put call ratio itself was elevated early this week, last week, close to one. So, I mean, yes, I, I, I do think people are trying to short and it's, and that's a clue, right? We have this consolidation. In broad market metrics, you have this carnage underneath the surface in certain areas people are putting on, putting on their hedging trades, and.
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141Yeah. I mean, to be fair, until we get of us, I mean, we've had like failed attempts to break through. 7,000 has been 14, but it's been, I mean, if you looked intraday, it's. We've touched it multiple times over the last, I mean, since the beginning of the year.
david_1_02-13-2026_105142Yeah, I think that's really gonna be the clue, right? Are we below 6,800 or are we above 7,000? You know, if we're, if we're above 7,000, things could move higher quickly, and if we're below 6,800, the opposite applies. We could be. Revisiting the 200 day and the 200 day is only 7% away on something like the s and p 500 and it's gonna be accelerating upwards. 'cause the backside of that is that the president, you need to take that call. Are you gonna be the new Fed chair?
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141to know. He wants to know. He's texting and I, and I haven't picked up. I told him we usually record around this time.
david_1_02-13-2026_105142He wants you to be the Fed chair.
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141I would, I could do it. I'm about to be head of Department of Justice if I'm pretty sure Pam's gone. But so maybe I'll vie for that 1050. I mean, I don't really know why are we even doing this podcast? If the thousand, 50,000,
david_1_02-13-2026_105142What does it matter? What does it matter?
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141of this matter?
david_1_02-13-2026_105142Well, we want.
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141at you. Doesn't matter. Kid's got a bad report card. Doesn't matter. Das 50,000.
david_1_02-13-2026_105142Well, it was, it was,
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141my landlord, dude, I bud. Das, 50,000. You'll get it when you get it.
david_1_02-13-2026_105142now we need to reclaim 50,000. We had it.
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141Yeah.
david_1_02-13-2026_105142We gave it up.
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141if she ran her mouth in top, tick. See now this, you asked me about being superstitious Friday the 13th. No, people running their mouth about what the market's doing. Yeah. Don't like that.
david_1_02-13-2026_105142Is it, is that more of a, is that
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141I.
david_1_02-13-2026_105142superstitious or is that more the old adage that holds true so often? Pride before the fall.
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141Yeah, I mean, I just, we all know, we all see it, Pam. It's not like you had to make a big a do about it.
david_1_02-13-2026_105142Yeah. And there's two ways. There's two ways to take that one. And, and for context, for those listening. You know, Pam Bondy was in a congressional hearing and asked about the Epstein investigation. Um, and she responded with, why does this matter, the DAOs at 50,000?
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141And that's what we should be talking about,
david_1_02-13-2026_105142Right? And so that's one way to take it. Someone brought up a good point was, is she, is she making the point that. If we expose all the Epstein stuff, the dos not gonna be at 50,000. That's a little
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141Yeah.
david_1_02-13-2026_105142nuanced take, but it is interesting. All the connections Jeffrey had.
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141Lots.
david_1_02-13-2026_105142Seems like the conspiracy theorists were right. Once again,
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141Still betting a thousand.
david_1_02-13-2026_105142just just crazy.
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141All right, so what do you think happens from here? We've been sideways since October. Well, the s and p and NASDAQ have other indices, particularly foreign indices
david_1_02-13-2026_105142So, so we are trend followers. We're technicians and you give the benefit doubt to the primary trends. You like to see the consolidation break into the direction of the primary trend. The table is set for that because you've had this flush in tech and software that now has upped the amount of shorts, which all shorts are, are future buyers when they have to cover. So you stack the firewood. If tech rebounds and participates, the upside market could move through 6,800 pretty quickly. We have this, you know, come from, from compression comes expansion. Now, the flip side also exists were the superstars, the the MEG seven and tech stocks and software stocks, which had been the leaders. Now the laggards. Was this not rotation and, and was it just more alluding to the fact that we're gonna catch down, the rest of the market is gonna catch down to these things? That'd be, that'd be the other scenario, but the primary trend is up. And if the consolidation fails, so be it. You know, position yourself accordingly. The only way you know if the con consolidation fails is if you're a technician. I don't know how you do this if you're out there stuttering. All the macro and fundamental stuff,
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141Well, when the ISM survey breaks down,
david_1_02-13-2026_105142right? The C Yeah, the CPI, all that stuff. But you know, past three months s and p in a narrow range, 6%. It's kind of rare. Only 13% of the time do we do this. Sometimes consolidations mark tops, you know, like 2008, 2022. But other times really big rallies happen. So it's really about where are we above 7,000 things could move quickly. Are we below 6,800? That's a problem. So I didn't, I didn't give you like one definitive like which way? But you kind of have to defer into the direction of the primary trend because I think it's really hard to be short software here.
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141Yeah. Yeah. At this point particularly software, maybe even crypto. I don't know. I mean, I wonder if big Bitcoin, I wonder if crypto's gonna now, I mean, they could bounce pretty nicely and not fix a lot of things, I
david_1_02-13-2026_105142Yeah, they could rally all back to back to the 200 day and not fix anything. But it's pretty hard to be short software and crypto into the hole, you know?
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141definitely Right. So at Bitcoin, we're back at the October 21 highs. Yeah. I don't think here. I don't think, here's where you do it.
david_1_02-13-2026_105142So this is, this is,
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141is kind of intriguing.
david_1_02-13-2026_105142this would be a good spot to highlight the supporter of this podcast, the Adaptive Select ETF, listed on the New York Stock Exchange under ticker A DPV. Which helps investors access to the most prevalent factors in markets, momentum and relative strength using proprietary identification methods. The adaptive Select ETF attempts to own the strongest 25 large cap stocks when the market is in an uptrend. And since not all market environments are the same, adaptive select seeks to prevent extended declines by moving, moving to short-term treasury bills and cash during long-term market Downtrends investors can find out more including how to invest in A DPV by visiting ad pv etf.com or calling 1 8 3 3 88 0 5 200. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal AAVs distributed by Quasar Distributors LLC. What about you, Ian? Where do you, where do you think things resolve? And I, I know we spent a lot of time talking US markets, but maybe I should open that up more broadly, like asset class or international stocks. Where do you think things go?
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141looks pretty good. Emerging markets. Emerging markets. X China even better. I miss Korea. You know, I read this, I read this morning that the Tel Aviv stock market's up like 700% in the last two or three years.
david_1_02-13-2026_105142Yeah, Israel did well,
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141Mm-hmm.
david_1_02-13-2026_105142South Korea, Japan. Japan continues to go out at new all time highs, eyes,
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141Brazil's kind of intriguing.
david_1_02-13-2026_105142and it's a little bit of a repeat of. Of last year. Right? International.
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141that's where I, that's where I wonder if then this fizzles out, right? Because if mega, if mega caps come back, then we're all, we're all gonna, that's gonna be the, we're gonna be right back to the shiny thing.
david_1_02-13-2026_105142Yeah. You're saying, so last year international led on a relative basis?
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141basically Q1, right? Had a really good qua
david_1_02-13-2026_105142Yep.
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141quarter.
david_1_02-13-2026_105142Yep. And then the megas took over. Through, through summer, and then they paused. But you didn't gain any, you didn't gain any, uh, alpha by being international since,
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141chart for. For the remainder of the year, and
david_1_02-13-2026_105142and so do we.
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141we are back.
david_1_02-13-2026_105142International leading, again, is it a Q1 thing? Because the stage is set for First Tech,
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141I would, yeah,
david_1_02-13-2026_105142if they.
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141the dollar to break 96.
david_1_02-13-2026_105142Yeah, isn't that interesting?
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141I would like the dollar to break 96. I think that that's a good, that'll be a good kick in the pants. To keep the emerging markets foreign trade going, probably I assume people get back into the precious metals. Love. We'll have to see that still might have to work itself off for a bit as we're pretty parabolic moves. So, yeah, it'll be,
david_1_02-13-2026_105142Well, I even look at, you know, I look at, I think you bring up a good point, leadership out at international start the year, but now your mega cap growth and tech are sitting at levels that they seem to be holding. If they've had their downward move, you know, using Coinbase as, as an example,
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141mm-hmm.
david_1_02-13-2026_105142if that could be the crossover between tech and crypto. If that stock, if cri, if Coinbase is holding 1 66, staying above that and moving higher, pretty hard to be bearish. And it's likely happening in an environment where tech overall is performing very well. And that goes back to. No different differentiation between US and international if mega caps are doing well. I'm not saying Coinbase is a mega cap. I'm just saying it's a canary that if that's moving higher from these levels now, if it's below one 60, if it's below 1 66, that's probably a problem for the market as a whole. One 50 to one 60.
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141No one cares about the Palantir weakness. Just shrugging it off. That's a terrible looking chart.
david_1_02-13-2026_105142Yeah, below 1 47.
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141yeah, I could see it, of course. I mean there's, I say that and then I followed up with Yeah, it could bounce. Yeah, it could. But I mean, below the 200 day, the 200 day is gonna start flattening out here. Unless there's some super drastic price recovery in the next month.
david_1_02-13-2026_105142Well, I think, I think if Coinbase is the overlap between tech and crypto, Palantir is probably the overlap between tech and ai.
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141Yeah, could be. I could see that. Although you brought up a good point. obviously IGV expanded tech software. I forgot what didn't they get rid of? PSJ, I forgot what they called it now.
david_1_02-13-2026_105142IGBT.
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141Oh, that's Rice. Okay, so that's perfect. So IGV is your like classic 20 20, 20 21 hot software. Terrible. Absolutely demolished Since Holloway what is this down, I mean, 31%. 32% at the lows, roughly. Obviously we're bouncing last day or so. Then you brought up IGPT, which is software, but with an AI tilt.
david_1_02-13-2026_105142Yeah, and there's, yeah, there's only 15% overlap in those ETFs and. It, it is interesting. I mean,
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141it's a new H maybe.
david_1_02-13-2026_105142maybe, I mean, IGV as an example is more weighted towards Adobe, uh, more weighted towards Microsoft and Salesforce and Oracle and Intuit and Palo Alto. These are older names, right? CrowdStrike. Whereas IGT is tilted towards Nvidia, that's an older name, but like you said, ai.
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141more semiconductors, some hardware like Seagate, a lot of stuff I've never heard of. Some foreign like lattice, semiconductors, micron, or microchip technology.
david_1_02-13-2026_105142South Korean, south Korean semiconductor, like Hynek, which has been on a tear. So yeah, not, not all software is the same. But it's also the makeup of like, I would call IGV pure software. Like all I, I'm not seeing a, I'm not seeing a semiconductor name in there, whereas IGPT does have semiconductors in there, and semiconductors have held up well.
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141They have. I mean, it's hard. It's, they've definitely held up well, I think, I feel like healthcare's held up well. Pharmaceuticals held up well,
david_1_02-13-2026_105142Biotech.
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141I think like XPH might be getting a new re of high today. We'll
david_1_02-13-2026_105142so healthcare holding up. But yeah, I mean, semi semiconductors holding up well. It's really a tale of two. Two industries there. Software versus semiconductors. You brought up a good point about hardware.
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141Another one that's been a leader, and I'm not sure if we've lost it yet. I don't know. I don't know what to think about it. I mean, well, for, I mean, it's hard to say. We've lost it as a leader. But it would be aerospace,
david_1_02-13-2026_105142Okay.
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141kind of curious. I mean, I guess I kind of put it in the same bucket as semis.
david_1_02-13-2026_105142And are you talking like pure aerospace or are you talking aerospace and defense?
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141Yeah,
david_1_02-13-2026_105142Yeah.
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141like a ITA.
david_1_02-13-2026_105142Yeah. I-T-A-X-A-R. Aerospace and defense PPA Looking good. And I know. You know, whether you're looking at UFO or ROKT, kind of more pure space plays, kind of consolidating.
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141SPCE as a taker.
david_1_02-13-2026_105142Hmm.
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141Y'all are
david_1_02-13-2026_105142Well, well, I've got Virgin Galactic Holdings on NYSC under that ticker. Must be a
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141Sp. Oh, okay. You're right. I'm looking in funds. I was looking at ETFs.
david_1_02-13-2026_105142Yeah, no.
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141does have it as a I stand mistaken.
david_1_02-13-2026_105142The Virgin Galactic. I don't know if that's related to Virgin Airlines. I don't know if that's another Epstein participant
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141say, well,
david_1_02-13-2026_105142has his own little island, has his own little island.
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141that. Was Richard Branson. Right? I
david_1_02-13-2026_105142Yep.
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141Richard Branson in ages.
david_1_02-13-2026_105142Yeah, he's, he has his own little island that's next door to Little St. James.
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141How about that
david_1_02-13-2026_105142It is a Virgin Galactic is a Space flight company, Richard Branson.
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141stock chart sucks.
david_1_02-13-2026_105142It does that one is not doing well in the space, space, space, space.
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141Hmm,
david_1_02-13-2026_105142You know what chart I, I've really enjoyed is. The number of federal government employees is now at its lowest level in 50 years.
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141isn't that amazing? And yet, life goes on, doesn't it?
david_1_02-13-2026_105142It does, and don't get me wrong, there's a lot of good workers in federal government, a lot of good workers, but also a lot of unelected bureaucrats. And it's okay. It's okay that we do more with less.
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141Yeah, don't need that many hall monitors.
david_1_02-13-2026_105142Nope. And we get end of, we're heading into the second part of February. We got Valentine's Day tomorrow.
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141Second half of the February is also supposed to be bad seasonality.
david_1_02-13-2026_105142Correct. But will it be.
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141my wife, how am I supposed to pay for Valentine's when we've likely got a five to 10% drawdown coming? Maybe I should, maybe I should do it now before, before I lose my money.
david_1_02-13-2026_105142Babe markets are like a box of chocolates. You never know what you're gonna get.
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141They're, we actually already did our Valentine's Day dinner, so
david_1_02-13-2026_105142Whoa. Look at you.
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141Yeah. Did it last weekend
david_1_02-13-2026_105142Is that 'cause of your jumpstart personality is that
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141maybe
david_1_02-13-2026_105142like,
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141Yeah. Went down to visit my dad celebrated his birthday.
david_1_02-13-2026_105142oh, nice.
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141let the grandkids. Get some grandparent time and my wife and I went out killing lots of birds with this one stone, potentially four birds.
david_1_02-13-2026_105142Wow.
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141So it was a, it was, it was great.
david_1_02-13-2026_105142Multitasking at its finest.
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141And my wife says, I can't multitask.
david_1_02-13-2026_105142Look, babe,
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141to think that I can.
david_1_02-13-2026_105142all you gotta do is point to a ratio chart. That's that's multitasking.
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141There you go.
david_1_02-13-2026_105142Two charts in one. What do you think about the net Netherlands announcing a 30%, 36% tax on unrealized gains?
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141I don't even know. I don't know how that works. I don't even want to, I don't ever wanna know how that works.
david_1_02-13-2026_105142Yeah. My under.
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141just wouldn't invest.
david_1_02-13-2026_105142Yeah, my, yeah. My understanding is if you bought something at 50 and it goes to a hundred, that $50 gain is now considered, income is taxed, it's just bananas. And then, I don't know if you sell that thing. To pay for that tax if that's now a realized gain. And so there's a tax on that.
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141I was gonna say, so what? I just gotta realize all of them.
david_1_02-13-2026_105142This is crazy
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141No, I realized it. Realize all of them.
david_1_02-13-2026_105142sounds like the Netherlands needs to have the US chart for federal government employees. Maybe a little
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141get there. I'm sure America will get there.
david_1_02-13-2026_105142nah,
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141No, we won't.
david_1_02-13-2026_105142don't do it. Super Bowl was pretty, uh,
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141It's okay.
david_1_02-13-2026_105142it was. Okay.
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141It's okay. Not a lot of hype going into it. Not a lot. A lot of hype coming out of it.
david_1_02-13-2026_105142Ryan Dietrich says that when the NFC team wins Super Bowl by double digits, the full year is higher for the s and p, more than 90% of the time.
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141Well, and that's why I got 200% long the day after the Super Bowl.
david_1_02-13-2026_105142Hmm. So market-wise, bifurcated markets, split market hard to be short. Software here, it's already been down 20 to 30% mags have lagged yet in industrials, and materials have led can be indicative of the end of bull markets. That's tend to be the sectors that lead on the flip side of. If tech starts to get going here, you could see US markets regain the 7,000 level using SP 500. Maybe international continues to lead. We talked about crypto not being great. It's still not great. We haven't talked about treasuries.
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141Yeah, treasuries kind of got, well, rates went down. Again today. I mean, so we've, we're back below 200 day a flat, 200 day. A sloppy, sloppy, sloppy 200 day. We're still in the big range. Clients will be very familiar with this. I talk about it every month still in the range between four and five, a little over, we'll call it five. I'll call it five for simplicity's sake, but I don't know, maybe breaking rate of trend. Could we be going back down to fours,
david_1_02-13-2026_105142And we, and for inter market analysis purposes, I mean, if, if you've got. A tremendous debt taken on by these tech companies and rates lower might be a tailwind if I'm allowed to stand on that fundamental soapbox.
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141Again.
david_1_02-13-2026_105142Thank you. It feels nice up here. Well, we don't.
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141it going back down. I guess then what they'll refinance. I don't know what all these people do. They just refinance their debt at lower rates.
david_1_02-13-2026_105142Yep. You been watching any Olympics?
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141Yeah. I watched USA versus Sweden Gold mi it was mixed curling gold match.
david_1_02-13-2026_105142Ooh.
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141They lost it. They kind of, they had the lead going into the final frame. okay, here's, here's one I didn't know existed. We watched this last night, luge relay.
david_1_02-13-2026_105142Yeah, me too. I watched that too.
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141I had no idea that, how long have they been doing like a relay version of
david_1_02-13-2026_105142I don't know. I think maybe this is a first year.
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141sit up and then hit the thing
david_1_02-13-2026_105142Yeah. And then the next. Batch goes.
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141thing goes? Yeah.
david_1_02-13-2026_105142Yeah. I thought it was pretty cool.
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141it. I'm trying to think, but I haven't, I haven't gotten to catch my favorites. I haven't gotten to catch any country skiing. A lot of snowboarding, A lot of the big jump, the ski jumps.
david_1_02-13-2026_105142Yeah, those are fun. Snowboard half snowboard, half pipe is great.
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141Yes.
david_1_02-13-2026_105142So many good sports, so much fun.
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141like, like to see 'em wipe out on the snowboard. That's what they find humorous
david_1_02-13-2026_105142for the shot in Fre. They're there for the
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141Yes.
david_1_02-13-2026_105142of defeat. Oh.
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141Isn't it? So? And I saw good how many? So when you get Summer Olympics, like, oh, look at this 19-year-old from. Houston, Texas fastest, third fastest kid in the world. And in Winter Olympics it's like, oh, here's this 43-year-old mom who does cross. She won gold and cross country skiing and shooting at little medal targets.
david_1_02-13-2026_105142The
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141And then
david_1_02-13-2026_105142one
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141yeah, and she has a part-time job. The the guy in the summer Olympics, he's sponsored by Nike, and this lady has like a full-time accounting job. She's a CPA. It's a fascinating, like
david_1_02-13-2026_105142it is.
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141type of athletes you get now, clearly, yes, there's lots of young athletes in the Winter Olympics, especially in like the snowboarding and all that. But yeah, just the backstories of winter. They're just like really
david_1_02-13-2026_105142It's, it's definitely more, yeah. Yeah. Pretty more pretty diverse. I mean, local Wisconsinite, Jordan Stoltz from Ki Wasum. Not far from here. One golden. Skating. Speed skating. Yeah, speed skating.
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141skating.
david_1_02-13-2026_105142Yeah. It was pretty sweet. I have a feeling he does it full time. I don't think he's got an accounting job, but your point is made, I mean, like, you're right. There's.
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141because you could probably get sponsored. I guess you're speed skating. I don't know. Ask him. You're close.
david_1_02-13-2026_105142So it's fun. Time of year, col, you know, college baseball starts. Pitchers and catchers report for MLB. We got the World Baseball Classic coming up. We talked about Valentine's Day. We get a three day weekend. Market's closed on Monday. Pretty nice.
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141Mm. I'll take it.
david_1_02-13-2026_105142We all will. Well Annie, I appreciate you. Uh. Doing this again with me this week, and we'll see what the buyers and sellers decide to do here between 60 807,000 on the s and p. Whether some of the software catches up and recovers, or whether the leadership that it's established year to date continues. The good news is we get to find out more information next week, so we appreciate everybody listening. Please share it with your friends and family. Give us a high ranking on your platform or choice. That means a lot to us.
ian_1_02-13-2026_115141Have a great weekend everyone.