Episode 291: Ides of March

 In this week's episode David and Ian discuss the bullish engulfing candles witnessed on Monday, but no follow-through in sight with the S&P back below 6800. They also discuss the relationship between oil and energy prices, when else have we seen Financials be the worst performer to start the year, breadth deterioration, what it means if XLP breaks down while outperforming the rest of the market on a relative basis, fixed income and interest rates, international equities, and what is going on with Private Credit. Also discussed is precious metals, precious metals miners, changes in membership of the S&P 500, and cryptocurrency. 

Transcript

david_2_03-13-2026_103029 0:43

Welcome back to the Weekly Trend Podcast. Today is Friday, March 13th, 2026 S&P 500, currently sitting at 66 56. I'm David Zarling. I'm here with Ian McMillan. Little bit different than the past few weeks of recording below 6,800 on the S&P. Where do you wanna get us started?

ian_2_03-13-2026_113030 1:02

Yeah, lots lots of action. You said below 6,800. That's unfortunate. Still about two on your day. Big Monday. We had a big Monday. of bullish engulfing candles. No follow through. No follow through.

david_2_03-13-2026_103029 1:20

I think that's a really actually prescient point about bullish eng golfing and as a technician for those who aren't technicians. Just price overlapping the previous day price action in a bullish manner. And typically as technicians, we wanna see follow through, so, so days that have that are positive. Following that and didn't get it.

ian_2_03-13-2026_113030 1:42

Yeah, maybe a pretty good microcosm of how weak the market is.

david_2_03-13-2026_103029 1:48

Oh.

ian_2_03-13-2026_113030 1:49

I.

david_2_03-13-2026_103029 1:50

I could see that. I mean, it's kind of simple. If you can't reclaim 6,800, how serious is demand over supply to take the market higher? And again, I'm using the term market as an S&P 500. We realize that's a market of stocks with huge dispersion happening underneath.

ian_2_03-13-2026_113030 2:08

Yeah,

david_2_03-13-2026_103029 2:09

What are we seeing?

ian_2_03-13-2026_113030 2:09

some point you gotta have something to call the market.

david_2_03-13-2026_103029 2:12

Yeah. Agreed.

ian_2_03-13-2026_113030 2:15

I guess energy's held up well, crude had a big week.

david_2_03-13-2026_103029 2:20

Yeah. And.

ian_2_03-13-2026_113030 2:21

not quite that strong, I don't think energy stocks have doubled since the beginning of the month, but crude has, briefly, briefly, I think we got up to like 119,$120 a barrel. Back to 95 ended last week at 70, is that right? No. I guess the first big move was last Friday, ended the week at 91 Monday. All the way up to one 20, then all the way back down to 76 at one point Tuesday.

david_2_03-13-2026_103029 2:57

You're talk, you're talking about crude oil futures.

ian_2_03-13-2026_113030 3:00

Yeah.

david_2_03-13-2026_103029 3:00

Yeah, and I think it's interesting you talked about energy. I mean, there's no major US indices or sectors positive on the weak except for energy and financials are the worst sector on the year. Now down 11%.

ian_2_03-13-2026_113030 3:17

They look terrible. They really do.

david_2_03-13-2026_103029 3:20

Have there been been instances of that in the past where we've had a start like this and financials have been the weakest sector?

ian_2_03-13-2026_113030 3:26

I believe so. Seems now I wanna, let's see, financials. Okay, so not quite, we're not fi XLF 7% below. About 8% below. 200 day moving average TRF tantrum. We got down, we got to 10% below 200 day. But yeah, like we've said, I mean just kind of a red flag all year was the rough start for financials.

david_2_03-13-2026_103029 3:56

Well, I think you,

ian_2_03-13-2026_113030 3:57

straight. I mean, they peaked XLF peaked on January 6th.

david_2_03-13-2026_103029 4:01

yeah, and you shared, um, some good data from John Turk when that, if you look at years that XLF financials were down 10% or more in quarter one, which is what we are right now. The years that come up are 2002, 2008, 2009, 2020. Kind of interesting.

ian_2_03-13-2026_113030 4:19

fix that. We can't fix it.

david_2_03-13-2026_103029 4:20

We can, we've got plenty of time.

ian_2_03-13-2026_113030 4:22

not over yet. We can fix it. We've got 17 calendar days. How many days are in March? 31. In March, right? Yeah. I. But not looking good. Every bounce continues to be lethargic. Right. We talked about, I mean, the fact that you can't get, not to go back to this, the fact that we couldn't do anything after Monday with some very nice looking candles, even on the major indices, lots of individual components, just blah.

david_2_03-13-2026_103029 4:54

Yeah. If buyers were gonna prove themselves money,

ian_2_03-13-2026_113030 4:57

pointed out to me yesterday, he texted me, this is the first day in a while that we closed on the lows,

david_2_03-13-2026_103029 5:04

yep.

ian_2_03-13-2026_113030 5:05

and now that, I mean, that is a, it's a fair point. I mean, maybe going back to,

david_2_03-13-2026_103029 5:11

Well, January 20th, closed on the lows.

ian_2_03-13-2026_113030 5:14

yeah,

david_2_03-13-2026_103029 5:15

February 5th. February 5th, not so much, but I mean on the lows,

ian_2_03-13-2026_113030 5:19

I could get, yeah, February 5th and I'd give you

david_2_03-13-2026_103029 5:22

December 17th

ian_2_03-13-2026_113030 5:23

Yeah. Yeah. Look at that. Well, and.

david_2_03-13-2026_103029 5:27

and maybe it's a character change. I think it's a good point, meaning closed on the lows. Like yesterday, we had that on February 5th, January 20th, December 17th. November 20th and October 10th. And each of those times the market rebounded higher.

ian_2_03-13-2026_113030 5:49

Wow.

david_2_03-13-2026_103029 5:50

And if we don't get,

ian_2_03-13-2026_113030 5:52

strict

david_2_03-13-2026_103029 5:53

and if we, I don't know if you're being sorry. Yeah, I don't, I don't,

ian_2_03-13-2026_113030 5:56

you're publicly going on record is saying we're fine. This

david_2_03-13-2026_103029 5:59

no, I'm actually, I'm actually saying the opposite. If today closes lower than yesterday, that'd be a character change over the past six months. Right. If we don't bounce off of closing lows. Like we have in the last six months, that would be a character change. And maybe that's what Pratt's point was or what your point is, and I'm being an idiot. And.

ian_2_03-13-2026_113030 6:17

I just thought it was interesting. Cause they have continued to, right. Take Monday as an example. We've had some pretty nasty gap downs and just intraday moves down that were, you know, they had essentially saved it by the time we got to the closing bell. Yeah, maybe we were just to the point where there's that much supply or they're not enough. I don't know. I don't know. I, we don't really have to know if it's us. What issue it is if price is going down or up.

david_2_03-13-2026_103029 6:51

Well, and I think, again, I'm not a volume guy. I've brought this up in previous episodes, but. Anytime you see Red Day volume higher than Green Day volume over a period of time, which is what we've seen, that would be conducive to distribution type characteristics. And anytime you see financials not even participating, being a leader to the downside, that's a little bit problematic. And Ryan Dietrich highlighted something that I found interesting. Again, it's a little data miney, but on Thursday, so yesterday we closed beneath the December low, so that happened in Q1. The market's done this 38 times where you have a a Q1. Of the year following close below a December low. That's happened 38 times the average, and we know how averages work. They're defined by extremes. Average year return is 0.2% for the rest of the year and only up 50% of the time. One of the exceptions was last year. Last year we closed with the tariff tantrums below December. Lows rallied off of that and came back.

ian_2_03-13-2026_113030 7:54

Wow.

david_2_03-13-2026_103029 7:55

So you gotta keep an open mind.

ian_2_03-13-2026_113030 7:57

We do.

david_2_03-13-2026_103029 7:58

And we still have the magnificent seven below 6 63 using Megs, MAGS. That's gonna be a little bit of a problem if your biggest cap stocks, especially considering we had, we did have a scenario on our hands where there seemed to be rotation out of Megs, out of the big cap and into other pieces. But in our workbook analysis this week, it was very obvious that we had some breath deterioration on our hands.

ian_2_03-13-2026_113030 8:26

A lot of things getting hit. Industrials.

david_2_03-13-2026_103029 8:29

Yeah. Industrials had been a leader. I.

ian_2_03-13-2026_113030 8:31

Pretty logical spot. Yeah. Tough to tough to watch set. I mean, especially I go back to I mean, just look at the March 2nd candle on something like XLI.

david_2_03-13-2026_103029 8:42

Yeah. That that failed. Yeah.

ian_2_03-13-2026_113030 8:45

we had had, I mean, you could say the RSI had been diverging going into that maybe, but it's been a very quick move over the, I mean, really two weeks.

david_2_03-13-2026_103029 8:57

Yeah.

ian_2_03-13-2026_113030 8:58

Market leader down 9% over the last two weeks. Still in a long term uptrend.

david_2_03-13-2026_103029 9:04

Well now we've got a scenario unfolding that you've highlighted several times, which is staples have been moving downwards. But on the verge of outperforming with that type of price action,

ian_2_03-13-2026_113030 9:20

Yeah, we don't, we probably don't wanna see staples. Yeah.

david_2_03-13-2026_103029 9:24

that's a risk off characteristic if you're

ian_2_03-13-2026_113030 9:27

and yeah, holding up above a route of 200 a.

david_2_03-13-2026_103029 9:30

mm-hmm.

ian_2_03-13-2026_113030 9:31

Now, I mean, staples, I don't know. You know, there's periods where utilities outperform and markets are fine. Extended, extended periods of time, multi-year periods. There's periods where real estate has outperformed for multiple years, but I don't think, I can't recall in my time studying markets. Ever

david_2_03-13-2026_103029 9:59

Okay.

ian_2_03-13-2026_113030 9:59

in a a pretty solid bull market and staples are a leading outperforming sector. I say that because on an absolute basis, XLP coming back to 84 bucks, is it pretty logical? Entry point, right? If you think the markets are going higher and you think, but so, but then you're making the bet that I think markets are going higher and I think staples outperform.

david_2_03-13-2026_103029 10:31

Yeah, which is just not a thing in,, you know, healthy bull markets.

ian_2_03-13-2026_113030 10:37

What if it is that? What if.

david_2_03-13-2026_103029 10:39

The old adage this time is different. Is that what we're going for?

ian_2_03-13-2026_113030 10:43

Yeah. Well then you put it that way.

david_2_03-13-2026_103029 10:46

We could.

ian_2_03-13-2026_113030 10:46

got hold. Yeah. Staples below 84. Now you've got a failed breakout and outperformance

david_2_03-13-2026_103029 10:54

Well, and that would be the most bearish scenario, would it? Not if we fail. If XLP fails at 83 84 and moves down to the$75 level, while outperforming on a relative basis probably means we've got a pretty good and maybe normal market correction on our hands. I, but financials do not give me the warm and fuzzies at all. In this scenario, when you take the weight of evidence, you talk about staples pulling back. Now they could. They could respond here and if they move higher and underperform on a relative basis, great. Love it.

ian_2_03-13-2026_113030 11:32

JP Morgan still below 200 day

david_2_03-13-2026_103029 11:34

Yeah. Does anything good happen below a 200 day? No.

ian_2_03-13-2026_113030 11:39

man. And then, I mean, you gotta assume, well, you don't, you don't have to assume. I shouldn't say that on a technical analysis podcast of all things, it makes, it makes me wonder if there's just foreshadowing eventually gonna get there. I mean, look at mags, all this stuff that ma, that matter. I mean, it does matter from a waiting perspective, it matters. From just like an importance, an optics perspective, it matters.

david_2_03-13-2026_103029 12:11

Well in Megs below 63 on an absolute basis. And then if this price formation since mid-February for the past month, so the last April 13th, or, uh, sorry, the last Friday the 13th, which was in February. If this is just from a technical perspective, a flag. Wouldn't you know it? That measured move takes us down to the relative lows in Megs versus S&P from April of 2025.

ian_2_03-13-2026_113030 12:41

Wow.

david_2_03-13-2026_103029 12:41

That would be a pretty tough market.

ian_2_03-13-2026_113030 12:44

Be very tough.

david_2_03-13-2026_103029 12:45

And we have the VIX elevated to 25. And you know, you talk about recollection or studying market history, it's, I cannot recall a time where VIX has grinded higher, the volatility index has grinded higher like it has since Christmas of 2025. In this type of fashion, normally there's a little more volatility of volatility. The measurement of how much volatility index is moving.

ian_2_03-13-2026_113030 13:16

What is that? VV.

david_2_03-13-2026_103029 13:17

Yeah, and this has been a really steady move higher in vix in, I would describe it as a capitulation type index and oscillator type index that it still appears that there's a pent up. Appearance to it that you could still get a flush and, and maybe that's what this market needs.'cause we've had such a breath deterioration. You know, 50% of the S&P is above, its 200 day only 40% is above 150 day moving average. And only 33% of the S&P is above a 50 day moving average.

ian_2_03-13-2026_113030 13:54

Yikes.

david_2_03-13-2026_103029 13:55

Bullish percent is a in follow through to the downside in os near forties. You know, last time we saw this type of, I'll call it washout readings, was in November of 2025. So last year late. Obviously more, more room to the downside if it wants to. But do we need a, a broad market index flush to the downside of pop and the vix? Because we already have bearish sentiment. I mean, we already have the Iran narrative. We've got the sentiment surveys that are negative private credit narratives wide open as far as like there is headlines out there about it. Do we get, do we get a flush, a move into summer? Like, it just reeks of a messy summer in broad markets. But all that thesis is completely blown up. If we can get back above 6,800. It's really that simple.

ian_2_03-13-2026_113030 14:48

That's really what we need, some type of failed breakdown.

david_2_03-13-2026_103029 14:51

And it.

ian_2_03-13-2026_113030 14:52

right when you zoom out, right. It is a clearly a, I mean, visually around the top, on the S&P from the November 21st lows, it is visually. I dunno. I wonder if that, if that's what makes it too obvious,

david_2_03-13-2026_103029 15:09

Yeah, it could be like it's, you know, what are we pricing in here? Six to 12 months out. Is it too obvious what's priced in?

ian_2_03-13-2026_113030 15:17

you are not even below 200 day. We haven't, right? I mean, this, this correction from, all right, we'll say, so the, our all time highs, we'll call it January 29th, down to the 200 a versus last year we peaked on February 19th. I mean, we were below the 200 day, within two and a half weeks. So this has been a much more, I don't like to use the word control. Well, maybe I do like to use the word control. It hasn't been as quick. Of a correction. That's probably one of the things that's made it a little bit more what's the word I'm looking for, Dave? A little bit more. Not confusing, but I mean we've had a lot bigger intraday moves. And a lot bigger days with more big shadows, whether on the bottom or the top of the candle than we had during the beginning of the tariff tantrum. Last year.

david_2_03-13-2026_103029 16:25

Oh, I, yeah, I think I'll try to communicate this. I think it's just a tougher market,

ian_2_03-13-2026_113030 16:32

Yeah. At least last year we just went down.

david_2_03-13-2026_103029 16:33

right? Like it's a tougher market and on multiple levels, right? You have huge put buying. You've got a tight range. You have massive dispersion underneath the surface. So you got some stocks up 10, some stocks down 15, so really large volatility underneath the surface. Meanwhile, the broad index using S&P 500 has been a little bit more controlled to use your term to the downside. And since price likes to move in time and price, what I find as a thesis that's. A potential is this rounded formation that we're seeing. I could see the S&P 500 holding the lows from fall of last year near 65 50. We hold that move higher back into 6,900 and then roll over, and that takes us all the way into June, and that would be really tough. Because if it, if the dispersion continues and this market moves, quote unquote sideways in a range, that's about 5%, 6%, that's kind of tough.

ian_2_03-13-2026_113030 17:41

Is.

david_2_03-13-2026_103029 17:42

And markets had been easy. Markets had been easy up until November of last year. Easy when I, I say easy just coming out of the, some of the breadth for us we saw coming in out of May, 2025 and what makes it, you know, also additionally hard is again, the 60 40 portfolio is dead. You know, if your advisor still has you in a 60 40 portfolio, bonds are not offsetting this. Move in equities, they're making similar moves to the downside.

ian_2_03-13-2026_113030 18:13

I agree. How are bonds looking right now?

david_2_03-13-2026_103029 18:16

I think, uh, a GG broad market complex below 99 bucks is a problem below 99, 66 and a 200 day. Pretty weak.

ian_2_03-13-2026_113030 18:29

So interest rates are not going down.

david_2_03-13-2026_103029 18:31

No TLT. If TLT, you know, 20 plus year treasuries loses 86 50, that's a little bit problematic. And so, yeah, maybe may, you know, are we in an environment where rates are rising and stocks and bonds are down?

ian_2_03-13-2026_113030 18:49

Well, I am sure that would put everyone in a very happy mood.

david_2_03-13-2026_103029 18:52

All right. Oil up. So your input costs are up

ian_2_03-13-2026_113030 18:56

All right, what about the dollar? Are we still losing value on the dollar? Is that at least getting better? our dollars getting stronger?

david_2_03-13-2026_103029 19:02

oh, they're flirting with that a hundred dollars level we've been talking about for six. Oh wow. Almost a year. Really? And you do wonder if that does turn into a headwind. If we break a hundred on DXY, does that turn into a major headwind?

ian_2_03-13-2026_113030 19:15

Yeah, look at the Euro.

david_2_03-13-2026_103029 19:17

What are you using for that? Are you using the,

ian_2_03-13-2026_113030 19:19

of currency talk on here.

david_2_03-13-2026_103029 19:20

yeah. Are you using the straight pair euro versus USD?

ian_2_03-13-2026_113030 19:24

USD.

david_2_03-13-2026_103029 19:25

Yeah, that's lost to 200 day lost important levels.

ian_2_03-13-2026_113030 19:30

Okay. Back to where we were last summer.

david_2_03-13-2026_103029 19:32

You like to use VGK. I EV's another one for looking at Europe

ian_2_03-13-2026_113030 19:38

figure out. Yeah,

david_2_03-13-2026_103029 19:39

and

ian_2_03-13-2026_113030 19:39

I, it's tough.

david_2_03-13-2026_103029 19:41

will you look back as a technician and say, huh, was early March an exhaustion gap? Price moved aggressively higher and gapped down.

ian_2_03-13-2026_113030 19:52

Yeah,

david_2_03-13-2026_103029 19:52

Ran. Ran outta buyers.

ian_2_03-13-2026_113030 19:54

One oh mask. That also just makes me feel like that's gonna be a high for a while, even like we might spend. A couple years trying to break through that, like that is a pivotal, that is pivotal price action to me.

david_2_03-13-2026_103029 20:11

Yep.

ian_2_03-13-2026_113030 20:12

That's something that I just, I, the next time I just, obviously VGK will at some point get up to 90, 91 bucks again, and I just, that's like, that's price action. That should really stand out. Holy crap. No one wants to own this over 91 bucks.

david_2_03-13-2026_103029 20:32

Yep.

ian_2_03-13-2026_113030 20:33

That's gonna be a tough nut to crack in the coming months and years. I, I think, I could be wrong. I'd

david_2_03-13-2026_103029 20:39

No, I, I think that's fair.

ian_2_03-13-2026_113030 20:40

if I was wrong, but that's just really gross. That's a, that's like a big, you know, and I say the same thing about em.

david_2_03-13-2026_103029 20:50

Mm-hmm.

ian_2_03-13-2026_113030 20:51

This candle we had, what was it, two weeks ago? Pro, around probably the same time, right?

david_2_03-13-2026_103029 20:57

Yep.

ian_2_03-13-2026_113030 20:58

Big, big. I mean, that's just 65 bucks, 66 bucks on the EM is gonna be a pain that is not going to, that's not gonna be sliced through with ease me thinks.

david_2_03-13-2026_103029 21:11

Yeah, the, the, the international opportunity benefit, uh, is in question now. And with the dollar, if the dollar moves above a hundred, you could see how that really becomes an issue. And I know I, I realize we're talking both Europe and emerging markets, but that's the international bucket.

ian_2_03-13-2026_113030 21:32

got. Yeah.

david_2_03-13-2026_103029 21:34

And I look at the decks and that's not really healthy price action either.

ian_2_03-13-2026_113030 21:40

Is not too bad.

david_2_03-13-2026_103029 21:42

Nikkei, not too bad. But the dax, if the DAX loses 23,000, some of this is lining up with, you know, our, our current VIX level is near 25 and four 12 month returns. Mike Zaccardi highlighted this 4, 4 12 month returns for something like S&P 500 when the fix is at 25 is like four, 4%. So now you're sitting in this potential scenario of. Upside carries more risk than downside. Really need a flush. Really get

ian_2_03-13-2026_113030 22:13

Yeah, we need to just do it. I think that's what made the tariff tantrum easier. again, I shouldn't use words like easier. I use it in, you know, reference and context to other. rip the bandaid, it becomes a lot easier. Instead of what we do, we've been doing for the last two weeks, which is gap down close, higher. Gap. Higher close, lower, you know, it's.

david_2_03-13-2026_103029 22:39

Yeah, it's been a tough market for six months for sure. I mean, you have, you have 266 components of the S&P 500 negative year to date. That means the remainder are positive year to date, and that's, I mean, that's averages of the index as an average. That's normal. But the, the distance spread between the positive and the negative is so large. You can have shops out there that are positive year to date, and you could have shops out there that are massively negative year to date, like in the double digits, depending on how they're positioned, and especially if you're over exposed to. Things like financials and tech.

ian_2_03-13-2026_113030 23:17

Tech. Is tech gonna see a turnaround?

david_2_03-13-2026_103029 23:19

I don't know if it, if Megs is not.

ian_2_03-13-2026_113030 23:21

Yeah. Hey, you got Excel cable? A 200 day moving average. Now we've been down here a few times lately. And they've saved them, including these just Monday gapped below the 200 and close, but just cannot get anything going. I mean, yeah, we're coming. We are coming to a fork in the road on tech.

david_2_03-13-2026_103029 23:47

Yeah, that fork in the road being about 135 on XLK,

ian_2_03-13-2026_113030 23:51

Yeah. And.

david_2_03-13-2026_103029 23:54

that measure

ian_2_03-13-2026_113030 23:55

to wanna go up.

david_2_03-13-2026_103029 23:57

and that measured move using technical analysis is 10% lower, which puts us right at the highest. From February of 2025.

ian_2_03-13-2026_113030 24:06

Hmm. Can you imagine that would be painful and noisy? It's always noisy. It's noisy even when we're in a strong uptrends.

david_2_03-13-2026_103029 24:14

Yeah, it's, it's a unique environment, especially with the transparency we're now seeing behind private credit. You know, credit moves. Bonds move, uh, credit markets move before equity movements and the amount of things going on, and I admittedly, uh, how do I put this? The things that are becoming apparent in private credit really frustrate me as an individual who's operating in a way to try to do what's in the best interest of my clients. And here's what I what.

ian_2_03-13-2026_113030 24:49

guy, Dave.

david_2_03-13-2026_103029 24:50

What I mean by that is these turds use these private credit loans to buy life insurance and annuity companies domicile in the Caymans, and then use that to issue more loans legal, but borderline Ponzi. Type behavior.

ian_2_03-13-2026_113030 25:09

Now they're pitching. Private credit to doctors

david_2_03-13-2026_103029 25:14

Yeah. Doctors

ian_2_03-13-2026_113030 25:16

You don't need real estate investing.

david_2_03-13-2026_103029 25:19

Larry,

ian_2_03-13-2026_113030 25:19

private credit.

david_2_03-13-2026_103029 25:20

Larry Fink trying to get private credit into 401k plans. Putting'em in life insurance products, putting'em in annuity products. Can you imagine like. Let's say it's a 1% chance, but even that 1% chance to me is so disgusting that you would put private credit instruments with high default rates into annuities to the very people who don't want risk exposure. That's why they're buying an annuity,

ian_2_03-13-2026_113030 25:44

Yeah.

david_2_03-13-2026_103029 25:45

and you could have those default. That's disgusting to me. Now, we don't sell, we don't sell annuities. We don't do that really here. There are people who buy annuities because they, they're okay with the lower return and

ian_2_03-13-2026_113030 25:58

The guaranteed floor.

david_2_03-13-2026_103029 26:00

Right. And guaranteed now becomes in air quotes when you observe what's going on and you can see the stress out there. I mean, there's plenty of, surprisingly, not surprisingly, ETFs that launched in 24 25 that were pre private credit ETFs that are. Well off the high is 20, 30% lower and firms that are exposed to it, blue Owl down 44%, Blackstone minus 35, and even some of your big boys, Wells Fargo, down 20, Morgan Stanley, down 15 BlackRock down 15. You brought up JP Morgan. What's interesting to me is like, is it all, by the time we're talking about this, is it already done? Meaning, um. Or a priced in. That's where things get interesting. I don't have an answer for you, but anytime there's stress in credit markets, it's problem.

ian_2_03-13-2026_113030 26:51

And they think a lot of, and so I guess a lot of it's in software. That's where software stinks, right.

david_2_03-13-2026_103029 26:57

Yeah. Like 20%. 25% of the$3 trillion private credit market is software. And that's all, you know, if I can use a scary term, shadow banking, it's private. You don't get to see a lot of that. And I get it. I'm, I'm, I'm talking overly negative and that's where it gets interesting is, you know, all this coming to the forefront on issues with private credit. Is that happening right at we, right as we hold 65 50? Or is there a bigger flush? Dunno.

ian_2_03-13-2026_113030 27:27

Private credit. Very complex. Too complex for me. I'm a simpleton. See, this is where being a simpleton saves you.

david_2_03-13-2026_103029 27:34

Well, liquidity. Liquidity is key, right? A lot of these funds, quote unquote interval funds or, or funds that have. Limited redemption windows. You can ask for some of your capital back quarterly, and you go there and they say, Nope, can't get it back. And here they were trying to press this on non accredited investors. Again, talking about putting in 4 0 1 Ks, you know, minimums of 2,500, putting it on the everyday investor. I think that's just completely crap. And then moving things into the Caymans. I love the Caymans, beautiful place to visit for weather, but for regulatory purposes, not great. Not ideal,

ian_2_03-13-2026_113030 28:11

I mean, well, it is great. Depending on what you're trying to do.

david_2_03-13-2026_103029 28:14

right?

ian_2_03-13-2026_113030 28:16

I mean, if I was trying to stuff annuities full of Triple C debt, I, it might be great.

david_2_03-13-2026_103029 28:23

Mm-hmm. And on the other hand, I've been pleased that to see semiconductors hold it well doing okay.

ian_2_03-13-2026_113030 28:30

Okay. Yeah. Okay.

david_2_03-13-2026_103029 28:33

And I think to me Nvidia.

ian_2_03-13-2026_113030 28:35

I

david_2_03-13-2026_103029 28:35

Is a huge canary. You know the fattest canary in the coal mine, if you will.

ian_2_03-13-2026_113030 28:39

You think about Palantir,

david_2_03-13-2026_103029 28:41

Palantir?

ian_2_03-13-2026_113030 28:42

fall? Where's that? The canary weight fall on that one.

david_2_03-13-2026_103029 28:45

Yeah, I mean,

ian_2_03-13-2026_113030 28:46

fifth fattest.

david_2_03-13-2026_103029 28:48

it's up there. I mean, you want to talk about a cross between AI and software. Palantir probably fits that mold. A previous market leader who's now broken below. One 60. I know you highlighted this surpasses. You know, this isn't the worst place in the in, in the price action for Palantir to get short. That's not a recommendation or financial advice.

ian_2_03-13-2026_113030 29:11

But yeah, it's, I mean it's, there's something up here at this Knuck line. I don't know. Yeah, I mean, that's been under the 200 days since mid-January. I really been been messing around back here since. November Thanksgiving. I think it's interesting too, I can't remember if we meant, we talked about this last week. We did, I think we talked about how XLE had not made new highs yet, but crude had

david_2_03-13-2026_103029 29:44

Yeah.

ian_2_03-13-2026_113030 29:45

when XLE did get there this week. I wouldn't say it was the most convincing move didn't last. I mean, we're still below, XLE still below where it was March 2nd. Now you can take an XES, see an XES, which had been the strongest.

david_2_03-13-2026_103029 30:05

Yeah, and typically I think I view XES as being so first and foremost it's oil and gas equipment and services. That relationship with EN XLE energy overall, I view that as very similar. Like gold miners and gold.

ian_2_03-13-2026_113030 30:21

Yeah,

david_2_03-13-2026_103029 30:22

Like you kind of wanna see XES lead.

ian_2_03-13-2026_113030 30:25

You

david_2_03-13-2026_103029 30:25

So I interrupt, I interrupted you there, but that, I think that's your point is that XCS not making new highs, a divergence between the two and effect.

ian_2_03-13-2026_113030 30:34

you've got XES versus XOP failed breakout.

david_2_03-13-2026_103029 30:39

Yep.

ian_2_03-13-2026_113030 30:39

So all this, this move in oil over the last week, this whole oil, getting to$120 a barrel, really didn't do a ton. Short term for energy stocks. Energy stocks. I guess we'd already priced it in. I have no idea. I mean, XOM cannot get above. Its February 11th highs and we're there. But again, point being, we use February 11th, well. Crude's up 50% since then. If I told you crude was up 50% and ExxonMobil hadn't budged Hmm. Just saying

david_2_03-13-2026_103029 31:22

Yeah, no, I think, I think it's a fair point. The, the energy and XOM have not matched, magnitude wise what the oil has.

ian_2_03-13-2026_113030 31:30

They made their move well before all this Iranian thing. I guess that's why oil is up. I don't know. That's what they say on the, on the television.

david_2_03-13-2026_103029 31:41

They're gonna tell you a vision on the television

ian_2_03-13-2026_113030 31:44

Governments been hiring commodity traders

david_2_03-13-2026_103029 31:47

and bankers.

ian_2_03-13-2026_113030 31:48

and mangers.

david_2_03-13-2026_103029 31:50

Speaking of commodities, what are we seeing outta gold? Gold miners? Silver. Silver miners.

ian_2_03-13-2026_113030 31:56

Eh, you know, kind of rolling over. Obviously the strong dollar does not help. I, I mean, you've got, well, so if he is the I, what I would say the most aggressively aggressive junior silver miners. That's junior Copper miners probably be up there too. Anyways, so back at the bottom of a range we've been in. So you look at SJ around 31 bucks, silver itself consolidating, I don't know.

david_2_03-13-2026_103029 32:28

Well, I think it goes back to you, you made that point before about like emerging markets and its price move.

ian_2_03-13-2026_113030 32:34

Yeah.

david_2_03-13-2026_103029 32:35

I think silver using SLV one 10, that's a huge level. We're well below that. We're well below that. The price discovery that needs to happen below that level, probably gonna be significant.

ian_2_03-13-2026_113030 32:47

It's gonna be, yeah, we're gonna be doing this for a while, I would assume. Especially as big and as of liquid as an asset, a silver, and oh my gosh, the attention it was getting.

david_2_03-13-2026_103029 32:59

And I think going back to your, you know, your point about like Palantir, I view that the same as I do mags below 63, if Palantir can't get back above. A 200 day, or let's call it one fifty five, it's problematic. And then S&P 500 committee is making a change coming up here for March 23rd, where they're adding IV VRT, Lumentum, LITE, coherent, COHR, and EchoStar, SATS, and they're removing match group. Molina Lamb Weston and Paycom from the S&P 500, and the reasoning is they wanna focus on technology and a AI infrastructure.

ian_2_03-13-2026_113030 33:49

That's what the S&P said.

david_2_03-13-2026_103029 33:50

Yeah,

ian_2_03-13-2026_113030 33:51

Did you see They're also trying to hurry up. Did you mention they're also trying to hurry up and gets SpaceX in there?

david_2_03-13-2026_103029 33:59

I did.

ian_2_03-13-2026_113030 34:00

They're gonna re, yeah, they're gonna redo their whatever. Is it truly public what it takes to get into the S&P

david_2_03-13-2026_103029 34:07

There's, there's some,

ian_2_03-13-2026_113030 34:08

whim?

david_2_03-13-2026_103029 34:09

there's some memos out there. I don't, I don't know if there's mathematical things in consideration, but it just proves,

ian_2_03-13-2026_113030 34:17

a growing focus on tech and

david_2_03-13-2026_103029 34:18

it just proves the point that S&P 500 is a momentum fund, first and foremost.'cause it's cap weight. Second, it is a discretionary vehicle. cause you have a committee making a decision, what's in and what's out. And the amount of times that we see things that are added, then underperform or things that are removed, then outperform is significant.

ian_2_03-13-2026_113030 34:41

have, we're really adding

david_2_03-13-2026_103029 34:42

Right.

ian_2_03-13-2026_113030 34:43

SATs. I mean, that's just, just like they did with Tesla, man.

david_2_03-13-2026_103029 34:49

Yep.

ian_2_03-13-2026_113030 34:50

Missed the whole darn thing. Missed the whole 700% move. I.

david_2_03-13-2026_103029 34:57

And so now you have, you basically have an active management momentum index with sometimes just the wrong timing on when they had and subtract. So they make these moves'cause they wanna focus on technology and AI infrastructure. Is that another sign, another indication? Time will tell, but as long as we're below 6,800, supply has control and there's a different, there's a different market environment upon us. You know, you go back to the example you gave of Pratty and, and the, and the daily closing lows. If we can't close higher today, that would be a character change and probably a new market environment. Broadly speaking, and I understand underneath the surface, there's been some things that are already in quote unquote bear markets. I'm not a fan of calling bear markets for an individual stock, but point being not

ian_2_03-13-2026_113030 35:47

bear market. It's down 20% off the.

david_2_03-13-2026_103029 35:50

exactly everything in context, right. And it just goes back to not all market environments are the same, and I think that's where it's appropriate to highlight the sponsor of this podcast, the Adaptive Select ETF, which is listed on the New York Stock Exchange, under ticker A DPV, which helps investors access to the most prevalent factors in markets, momentum and relative strength using proprietary identification methods. The adapt to select ETF attempts to own the strongest 25 large cap stocks. When the market is in an uptrend, and since not all market environments are the same, adaptive select seeks to prevent extended declines by moving to short-term treasury bills in cash. During long-term market, downtrends investors can find out more including how to invest in ad PV by visiting ad pv etf.com or calling 1-833-880-FIVE 200. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal, a distributed by Quasar Distributors LLC. So it pays to have a process. Our clients are familiar that we're gonna take our foot off the gas below 6,800 we've done. So market can always come back, but it's gotta get it back above that level to prove that demand has control over

ian_2_03-13-2026_113030 36:59

even more so well, 200 day maybe average. I mean, how far away from 200 day, like half a percent.

david_2_03-13-2026_103029 37:05

Yep.

ian_2_03-13-2026_113030 37:06

With a bad afternoon, we could be there. Not that that's what I am, I shouldn't put that out in the universe, but

david_2_03-13-2026_103029 37:15

You just did.

ian_2_03-13-2026_113030 37:16

I mean, we're back to Monday as lows. That Monday that was rough off.

david_2_03-13-2026_103029 37:21

So what do you, what do you think about like crypto? What do you think about Bitcoin?

ian_2_03-13-2026_113030 37:26

I think it's interesting that it goes up when the dollar goes up. Shane Murphy had a good chart on that, right? Kind of opposite of what you'd think. I feels counterintuitive. Something priced in dollars would go up when the denominator is also going up.

david_2_03-13-2026_103029 37:45

Yeah. And I, it's interesting that, you know, if we look at volume weighted average price, you know, back in mid-January, January 14th, they sold Bitcoin at the volume weighted average price from the all time high back in October of 25. And we responded to the vwa from that level that got sold back on January 14th, and here we are responding to that volume weighted average price again. So there's a battle between the average price from those highs and the volume weighted average price from November 23rd, 2022, which is where price stopped moving down. The last few months in Bitcoin, but if we lose that, it does make you wonder where Bitcoin ends up. And I know, I know the crypto market's, not just Bitcoin. You brought up Ethereum before we jumped on here. What are we seeing out Ethereum?

ian_2_03-13-2026_113030 38:42

Looks good today. Well, looked good. It looked better ago. Put it that way.

david_2_03-13-2026_103029 38:48

You sound like a Bayesian. You sound like you're taking new information in.

ian_2_03-13-2026_113030 38:52

about that? You know, I'm just, I'm, that's how humble of a guy I am. I'm willing to be wrong within 60 minutes.

david_2_03-13-2026_103029 38:59

Yep. Strong opinions loosely held.

ian_2_03-13-2026_113030 39:02

So yeah, I mean, it looked, I mean, if it could get back up a, I mean, yeah, you probably do need. To get back up above 2200. If you wanted to be early, you could do like or 2150, I don't know. But yeah. Kinda looks like now we're gonna stay in the range. Same with Bitcoin, which. I was impressed it was having such a strong day today specifically. It's actually had a pretty good week, hasn't it? Yeah, I mean, it's up from 65,000 highs of 74 back down to 71, obviously 70. I would say 72 is a pretty big area. 72, 70 3000. That was a pretty big area back in 2024. Finally broke out November, 2024. What do you think?

david_2_03-13-2026_103029 39:51

I think it's gotta get above these volume, volume weighted average prices. I think it's the same as same with equities. If you can't get above these levels where sellers have been before, you know this isn't, this isn't an American court. This is guilty until proven innocent for me.

ian_2_03-13-2026_113030 40:06

Wow. Dave has thoughts on the justice system.

david_2_03-13-2026_103029 40:09

Sometimes.

ian_2_03-13-2026_113030 40:10

I

david_2_03-13-2026_103029 40:11

Sometimes. Yep. Anything else you wanna highlight for our listeners before we sign off?

ian_2_03-13-2026_113030 40:19

No I don't. Yes, 6,800. That's stuck between 6,800 and a 200 day. Eventually one of them has to break blow a 200 day, it's. Hands off.

david_2_03-13-2026_103029 40:33

That's right. Well, Ian, it's always a pleasure. Thanks for doing this with me. Uh, we appreciate everyone that listens and shares this with their family and friends as a compliment to us. Give us a high ranking on your platform of choice. Share it on your socials. That would mean a lot to us. Ian, have a great weekend with your family and we'll do, we'll do it again next week.

ian_2_03-13-2026_113030 40:55

Yeah. Have a great weekend everyone.