Episode 293: Guilty Until Proven Innocent

 In this week's episode David and Ian discuss the S&P 500 moving below 6500, continued strength early in the week followed by weakness moving into the weekend, Magnificent Seven and mega-cap tech leading to the downside again, the relationship between energy stocks and oil, international areas holding up well on a relative basis, and what they are seeing in fixed income and commodities.  

Transcript

David 1:06

Welcome back to the Weekly Trend Podcast. Today is Friday, March 27th, 2026 S&P 500, currently sitting at 6425. I'm David Zarling. I'm here with Ian McMillan. Spring has sprung, but the market is not.

Ian McMillan 1:23

Spring is sprung. I think we're also being joined by My neighbor's leaf blower.

David 1:28

And that's okay. We're getting the yard work done. That's important. It means spring is here. I know we're in Wisconsin, we're getting, uh, more and more sunlight each day. 12 hours I think now, I dunno what you guys are like there in North Carolina, but

Ian McMillan 1:42

Yeah,

David 1:43

day, every day now through June 20th is gonna be longer. Love it.

Ian McMillan 1:47

That's when, that's when it peaks. June 20th.

David 1:49

Yeah, I think I have that right. I'm sure people will let me know if I'm wrong.

Ian McMillan 1:54

It's okay. We're not a, we're not a meteorologist podcast.

David 1:58

So plenty to talk about this week and I, and I appreciate Kevin covering for me last week. I thought you guys did a great job. But where do you want to take us today? What's important for our listeners?

Ian McMillan 2:08

I guess to same. A 200 day, everything's below 200 day, I guess the Russell is not. So small cap's trying to hang in there. I mean they're still above 2 43, 2 45. Below that I guess you got a 200 day around 2 42. But kind of the last piece hanging on here. Everything else, pretty gross.

David 2:34

Yeah, we're recording this, few hours before close on a Friday. You know, S&P 500 as you mentioned, below 65 50 below a 200 day. If we somehow don't close above a 200 day, which I don't see happening today, be seven consecutive days below a 200 day and the fifth consecutive negative Friday. S&P 500

Ian McMillan 2:57

Five consecutive negative Fridays.

David 3:01

and really when you,

Ian McMillan 3:02

people don't wanna own the stocks over the weekend, huh?

David 3:06

yeah, when you look at the past month, it's really strength Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, and weakness late in the week.

Ian McMillan 3:13

Yeah.

David 3:14

And if, I mean, if you. I did that on a daily basis. You wouldn't like seeing it, you know, if you saw strength early and weakness late, it's not really indicative of bull market behavior. And until that changes and we're below a 200 day, I think you have to err on the side that bears have control.

Ian McMillan 3:32

I agree. And I would say it's seems to, well before I say this, I was gonna say it's still a tech issue. Probably should that. Still a kind of a mega cap CapTech issue. Not that there's not other things going down. But your mags, your fangs.

David 3:56

Yeah, for sure.

Ian McMillan 3:57

headwind.

David 3:58

That goes back,

Ian McMillan 3:59

In Mag seven again this week

David 4:01

your all stars of the market are not performing well. It gets really hard when your big boys are not performing.

Ian McMillan 4:07

We got energy.

David 4:09

Yeah. What do you think about that? Is that just Iran narrative or what do we got here?

Ian McMillan 4:13

Yeah, it could be. I ran late cycle., It's been quite the move but crude hasn't, crude has kind of been sideways for a couple weeks now. I mean, we, the whole, yeah, I guess it was Monday, the March 9th. So about three weeks where we had the$120 oil. We're still around 97, of been in a 85 to 100 range in oil, energy stocks have kept going. Kind of makes me think that. Maybe we see another push hiring crude,

David 4:53

Yeah.'cause I remember.

Ian McMillan 4:55

Kind of like with the precious, precious metals. we had a couple instances over this last cycle we had where the minors would keep going even when. Precious metals, futures itself, the underlying contracts, gold, silver, all that stuff was sideways.

David 5:17

And I think I astute. You know, I, I remember your astute observation that in early March we had oil move from, you know, let's call it the$70 level to close to the 100 level and XLE energy didn't really do that. It kinda was moving flat, and now we're seeing the opposite. Oil's consolidating while energy stocks are moving aggressively higher. It's an interesting,

Ian McMillan 5:46

only thing? Is that the only thing we can buy right now in equity land?

David 5:50

well, it's pretty, pretty tough. I mean,

Ian McMillan 5:52

know. I mean, I wouldn't say I, I mean, I guess you gotta be careful saying that. I mean, I don't think I'd go out and start a new position in energy today.

David 5:59

yeah, it's, it's really hard to manage risk there. Now. I think it, it. It has similar characteristics to, and our clients are familiar, that we participated heavily in the precious metals precious metal mining move and subsequently not involved because re reward didn't outweigh risk. And now you're at a point. I think it's a good observation that you brought up regarding oil and energy stocks. Is this really where you get involved here and now it may be oil, you could make an argument'cause there's some levels you can manage risk with. But energy, it's had its move. We have a, a small position there. Not investment advice, but as far as the rest of the market goes, I mean we only have 43% of the S&P 500 holding above. Their lows from November, and now S&P 500 is losing that November low. And that's from Adam Turnquist. He's A-A-C-M-T, a charter market technician. That, and then you, you brought up the fact that late cycle, like s technicians, we like to observe what sectors are leading and we've got. Six sectors flat or positive on the year. Energy materials and industrials, which are late cycle sectors, staples and utilities, which I think we could argue are defensive and real estate is flat and five of the sectors are negative on the year. Financials. Tech comm services, discretionary healthcare.

Ian McMillan 7:35

I know financials and tech are, woo.

David 7:38

And does that really scream risk on, you know, if we've got financials, tech comm services, discretionary in healthcare and healthcare is its own unique beast. You've done a good job highlighting that before. It is interesting to see how biotech is holding up pretty good in that space while the rest.

Ian McMillan 7:56

at XBI yesterday. I think it was green yesterday, or at least it was. I mean, still sideways.

David 8:02

So maybe we could put that in the in risk-on care category. I mean it, we're always trying to challenge the thesis, and the thesis currently is below important levels. Like a 200 day and 65 50, 6800 on the S&P 500 risk is elevated. Maybe, maybe biotech is the signal, but the other ones are not. Financials, tech comm services, discretionary. Meanwhile, late cycle sectors are positive. I think it's important to pay attention to that.

Ian McMillan 8:31

Any sign, anything going good in tech at all? Are we gonna find? I don't know, kinda look at IGV every couple days.

David 8:42

Yeah, IGV.

Ian McMillan 8:43

Maybe here. 76, 77. I mean, obviously this has had a lot of, reaction before. 77 seems to have been a bottom, at least for the last couple years.

David 8:56

I, yeah, 76, 77 is hugely important. Going back to 2023 for IGV, the ETF for software.

Ian McMillan 9:03

then you still gotta get above like 89, 80, 89. I don't know.

David 9:09

Well, we're trying. We're trying to hold that level in IGB today.

Ian McMillan 9:13

Yeah.

David 9:14

I get a little, not that there's a right or wrong way for price to discover demand, but this lower, I am hesitant to say what I'm about to say next because. Sometimes technical analysis gets a negative wrap because we use esoteric terms like head and shoulders, things like that. But I'm gonna call this a lowercase H on IGV where we correct it all the way down to 77, got a muted bounce, and we're back to 77. Again,

Ian McMillan 9:46

Yeah,

David 9:47

I would call this on the brink.

Ian McMillan 9:48

it's lethargic.

David 9:50

And if we lose that in software and I, I don't want to sit there and say software is the market. It is not. But when you see a leader like that and mags struggling, your, your large cap growth, large cap tech struggling, and you've got late sec late cycle sectors leading. And when I say leading, I just mean some of them are positive and some of them are just doing well on a relevant basis. The, the evidence continues to stack up for continued corrective behavior. It doesn't have to be, I mean, we could be, maybe we're measuring a, a load a day, I don't know. But when you have so many stocks in S&P 500 losing their November lows, and S&P 500 is trying to do the same. Guilty until proven innocent would be my.

Ian McMillan 10:36

I'm very unimpressed. It's gonna take a lot to get me impressed. Maybe there's a bottom in here. A DPV is held up. Well, I will give it that. I know that was a hard segue, but.

David 10:53

Good segue.

Ian McMillan 10:54

That was one of the positives that I come back to. Maybe,, it's high beta first part of this correction, like early March hard, the last two weeks. I'm just probably, and I I'm not saying this to jinx anything, I'm not saying this to tout a DPV, I'm using this as it just kind of stands out that a higher beta instrument has held up well during this, and it makes me wonder. If maybe this correction isn't gonna be as, isn't gonna be terrible. I don't know. I got, I have thoughts on that. Maybe thoughts I shouldn't share publicly, but,

David 11:42

No, I think, I think that's appropriate.

Ian McMillan 11:44

it's a fun, we watch a lot.

David 11:46

I think it's appropriate. It's a strategy that is higher beta if you observe it objectively outside looking in. As a piece of evidence rather than, oh, this is the support of the podcast. I get that. You're just saying it's interesting. A higher beta momentum. ETF has held up well recently after, you know, let's call it mid month to the end of this month. That's notable. I think that's fair.

Ian McMillan 12:14

I mean, if you go back to March 6th. S&P 500 down 5% A DPV up, two and a half. Which if you, if you had told me that s and I guess what I, a better way to say this. If you had told me that S&P 500 was gonna go through seven, eight, 9% correction, whatever, at right now I just would've expected a DPV to be down more than it is.

David 12:37

No. Agreed. And, and I think before I, I highlight them'cause it is a really good segue and hopefully I don't ruin it, but it kind of goes along the lines of one of your favorite relationships, S&P 500, high beta versus S&P 500 low ball had been, had been showing strength recently until the last two days.

Ian McMillan 12:58

Yeah.

David 12:59

And, and, and so that, that's another one of those things where you say, Hmm. And then when you look at enough charts, which we do on a weekly basis'cause we have our workbooks as a team. I know I've heard you and I've heard Kevin say, Hey, there's a couple things setting up here. So that, that is on the potential for bullish resolution. And the, and the thing that I wonder about is. I think as a technician, when you see this discounting happening, other people call it a correct, you know, corrective behavior that you kind of wanna see this like one final flush where correlations go to one, which is really how the market has behaved. Since Vol Mageddon in 2018 and, and other major corrections too. I don't want to just say that that's 2018 onward exclusive. It's not. But is there a scenario where we don't get a flush where we just continue to discount in an orderly fashion and you never get that 90% down day'cause, which we haven't, we haven't had a 90% down day.

Ian McMillan 14:03

a 90% down date during the tariff tantrum?

David 14:06

We did

Ian McMillan 14:07

Okay.

David 14:08

back in April, 2025, even late March. We haven't had that capitulation event, and I would wager without data mining and looking at it, that the majority of the time you see that type of capitulation event, and we haven't had that. Do we get that? Which would mean we're closer to the correction ending in in time, not necessarily price. Or is this,'cause I mean, even if you, if you look at financials being the leader in the corrective behavior, that hasn't really been flushy. It's just been a continued discounting from January 7th through now in financials, just a. Supply out pacing demand. But your, your point, and I almost ruined it, about a DPV and high beta and momentum holding up well is. I think that's a one to put in the bullish buck bucket, and I'll highlight the adaptive select ETF as a great supporter of this podcast, which is listed on the New York Stock Exchange under ticker A DPV, which helps investors access two of the most prevalent factors in markets, momentum and relative strength. Through proprietary identification methods, the Adaptive Select ETF attempts to own the strongest 25 large cap stocks when the market is in an uptrend. And since not all market environments are the same, adaptive select seeks to prevent extended declines by moving to short-term treasury bills in cash during long-term market Downtrends investors can find out more including how to invest in A DPV by visiting adp v etf.com. Calling 1-833-880-FIVE 200. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principle a D PV is distributed by Quasar Distributors, LLC, so I talked a lot there between following up on what you were saying in the commercial. Where do you wanna take us now? Or you can keep, or you can keep on that stream of consciousness. And if you've got additional add-ons there, I think, I think it's a really good point that you brought up.

Ian McMillan 16:09

I don't. You've ruined it. So

David 16:12

Sorry, man.

Ian McMillan 16:12

I'm getting foreign stocks. What do you think?

David 16:17

Oh, you know, I think you gotta tie in the dollar here. We're really pressing against that$100 level in DXY. And so do you see some of these other leaders, you know,'cause you have European financials now below a 200 day,

Ian McMillan 16:33

Ugh,

David 16:33

know, are, are we gonna see emerging markets? Do you know, that keeps correcting, what are you seeing? Like what are you seeing out international?

Ian McMillan 16:42

I guess really it's probably not an environment to be cute with anything. I mean, there's things making new relative highs, but yeah. Unimpressed compared to a month ago, EFA. Your face gonna make it below 200. E em's, kind of a gross looking chart. Lethargic bounce. And that was early, early March. That got hit pretty hard again, unimpressed.

David 17:11

Unimpressed China.

Ian McMillan 17:13

China sucks. China sucks. And also their stocks aren't doing too well.

David 17:18

That's a good way to put it. It's a good way to put it.

Ian McMillan 17:21

Terrible. Few years, I mean, few years. Out there. I don't even wanna touch on a couple of'em, so we'll just roll my eyes and keep moving. Dave, we don't wanna get in trouble with the FCC. I don't need anyone. I don't need anyone from the government knocking on my door telling me I shouldn't be talking about things on my podcast. Our podcast.

David 17:44

Right. I think, you know, EWY, South Korea, AKA Samsung had been doing so well and it, it just kind of. I think it goes back to, I think two weeks ago you talked about VGK Europe and that important price high. I think you can make the same case for Samsung and the reason why I talk about South Korea is one of the best international areas for a while now, and does that now mean that's under pause. Then you consider how large China is in an emerging market allocation? Again, not, it's not. It's not clear Roads put the cruise control on for international, for sure.

Ian McMillan 18:31

You know, it is kind of hold, Brazil's kind of holding up Well,

David 18:34

Yeah.

Ian McMillan 18:35

yeah.

David 18:36

Yeah. I like that. I mean that's,

Ian McMillan 18:38

on

David 18:39

I

Ian McMillan 18:39

20th. No. I thought Mexico had been doing okay, but maybe not. Yeah, I mean. There are, there are definitely things that are not making new absolute lows. saying I'd go out and buy like e ww today, but I think it's interesting that I is up, you know, 3% this week with us indices. Not doing great.

David 19:05

Well, I think you're bringing up a good point here because, alright, we have corrective behavior overall. Got some pretty negative breath. Equities overall, correcting your job as a technician at this point is to identify, okay, what are the areas that are actually holding up well in this environment? You know, the beach ball that's been pushed underneath the water. Yes, we have broad supply, outpacing demand, but what's holding up well in that? And I think you bring up a good point when you see Brazil. Okay, let's put it this way. With the dollar doing what it's doing, would you really expect Brazil and Mexico to do what they're doing? I would not.

Ian McMillan 19:44

No,

David 19:45

And you?

Ian McMillan 19:45

Has currency workbook, did you have the currency

David 19:48

I did.

Ian McMillan 19:49

this week?

David 19:49

I did.

Ian McMillan 19:50

Yeah. You said something about Brazil.

David 19:53

I did.

Ian McMillan 19:54

Yeah, yeah. Now it's all coming back to me.

David 19:59

Well, and I, I just think. I think you've highlighted a really important concept in technical analysis is it's not only identifying the broad corrective behavior, but it's also what is holding up in that broad corrective behavior. And I do think it's notable some of the areas that you just mentioned, that let's say we do get a flush, or let's say we get a resurgence in tech and, and we get the bull market back to going, what do Latin America, Mexico, Brazil, look like? Right now they're showing relative strength. I'm not saying you gotta go out and buy'em right now, but important to look at for sure. What about commodities? I know you,

Ian McMillan 20:38

energy's been good,

David 20:40

oh, say that again.

Ian McMillan 20:42

clean energy.

David 20:42

Yes. I think, yeah, energy overall.

Ian McMillan 20:45

that

David 20:45

So

Ian McMillan 20:46

I don't ever know whether that falls under,

David 20:49

you're talking about like

Ian McMillan 20:50

dunno.

David 20:50

tan, tan.

Ian McMillan 20:51

good. Everything energy related.

David 20:53

I clean a lot of the clean energy ETFs.

Ian McMillan 20:58

Are you long lithography?

David 21:00

I knew, it's so funny. I knew you were gonna bring this up.

Ian McMillan 21:05

I had to.

David 21:06

So I think one of the cooler features that Fin Viz has added is themes, heat maps.

Ian McMillan 21:16

Theme seat maps. It is pretty sweet.

David 21:18

It is pretty sweet. Cause it breaks it down beyond sector or sub industry even. Like you go sub sub,

Ian McMillan 21:27

Yeah.

David 21:28

you know, like and I think it's, yeah. When you look at semiconductors year to date, the things that have held up well, it's lithography packaging and memory. I think that's cool to be able to see that. Energy you brought up energy biofuels.

Ian McMillan 21:42

robotics have been pretty good. Robotics and automation that falls under industrials education.

David 21:51

Yeah,

Ian McMillan 21:51

I can't admit to that. The education charts do look very good. I think that comes up in Staples workbook.

David 21:58

it does.

Ian McMillan 21:59

But yeah, all those like I don't know. I could tell you the I tickers, but

David 22:05

But I think, I think it's a, I think it's a cool feature to check out because you look at energy and you say, yeah, of course oil, gas and liquid natural gas. But then you've got wind

Ian McMillan 22:18

Yeah, wind's been

David 22:19

biofuels. Fertilizers, which is interesting.

Ian McMillan 22:23

Livestock,

David 22:24

Livestock.

Ian McMillan 22:26

alternative protein, what is that? Oh, beyond meat Red Boo. Boo. it in the red

David 22:33

Yeah. We're not going to eat soil and green people.

Ian McMillan 22:37

data center screen.

David 22:38

Yeah, so I think that's also interesting you brought up some of these international areas that have held up well in this tape. Obviously we've got energy doing this, data centers, right? If, if we're supposedly having an AI bubble, why would data centers be doing well,

Ian McMillan 22:55

Dell, they got Dell listed in here. I do think Dell's a good stock, good company.

David 22:59

right?

Ian McMillan 23:00

Eaton.

David 23:01

SMCI. Isn't that the one you highlighted a couple weeks ago with the guy smuggling billions of dollars in Nvidia chips into China?

Ian McMillan 23:10

Was that him?

David 23:11

Yeah.

Ian McMillan 23:12

Probably. It looks like they got caught.

David 23:15

How does that work? You just drive into China with a trunk full of semiconductors. How does that work?

Ian McMillan 23:20

No, they were buying'em and then using hair dryers to melt off the

David 23:27

Serial numbers

Ian McMillan 23:28

Numbers. And then they put fake serial numbers on it.

David 23:32

fascinating, but I appreciate.

Ian McMillan 23:34

we should be doing. Maybe it should be running like semiconductor in East Asia.

David 23:40

Yeah. Sounds like a great business plan.

Ian McMillan 23:44

Something that's something Tommy Shelby would get into.

David 23:46

Yeah. You're into Peaky Blinders lately. What do you think?

Ian McMillan 23:49

know I'm so late though, but I.

David 23:51

What do you mean? What do you mean by late? It's, it's whenever you consume it.

Ian McMillan 23:55

Yeah, that's true. But I mean, it came out a while

David 23:58

It is,

Ian McMillan 23:59

ago.

David 23:59

is, you know, I'm, I'm not a. I don't necessarily think, how do I put this? That binging is a good behavior, but that is a binge-worthy show.

Ian McMillan 24:10

Yeah, we're not gonna add about two a night. My wife and I.

David 24:13

That's respectable. We've done that and we've even pulled the three, we've done the three.

Ian McMillan 24:19

Yeah, we've had a couple threes and I'll threaten my wife and I'll say, I'll, I'm watching it with, I'm watching it. Either way, I need this, I need to see what happens next. I can't wait. She's the bigger person.

David 24:32

You're, you're, you're, you're borderline threatening that fl cheating.

Ian McMillan 24:36

Dude, she gets, so if she finds out, are times where I will watch an episode and then make sure to like restart it like one second in because it'll show up.

David 24:48

Yes. Yes.

Ian McMillan 24:50

The little red bar will be filled all the way up and my wife's like, Hmm, hmm. 56 minutes watched.

David 24:56

don't care'cause you got to see it and you're gonna rewatch it. Also enjoyable.

Ian McMillan 25:01

But there are also, sometimes I fall asleep with it on and then it'll go through four episodes and I have to be No baby. No, no, no, no, no. It's not what it looks like. I was asleep and it just kept play. It's not what it looks like. I swear.

David 25:15

Yeah. That's so good. It's so true. You know, in the rare night?

Ian McMillan 25:20

assume that these are just like all modern. Marriage,

David 25:25

Yes.

Ian McMillan 25:26

trial trials, tribulations,

David 25:29

Yeah. Once, once in a blue moon, which I don't know. I mean, I think I know what that means. But anyway, this is a long time where I got like an evening to myself and you throw on that app. You just stare at that thing you've been watching with your spouse and you're like, do I do it? I don't think I can do this.

Ian McMillan 25:47

but you wanna know what happens.

David 25:49

You do. Oh, that's so good. But yeah, Peaky Blinders fantastic. Emily and I haven't watched the movie yet. We will. Maybe we'll just wait for you and Kate. Maybe we'll have like a, you and Kate get through it. It's well written. It is. It is one of the better.

Ian McMillan 26:05

It is a good show.

David 26:06

Have you, have you graduated beyond the, the, the subtitles or do you use subtitles? The captions?

Ian McMillan 26:14

I think they're on, but I'm not I don't, I'm not glued in on them as much as I was.

David 26:21

Early on. I feel like you have to because they're heavy, heavy dialects. But I,

Ian McMillan 26:26

I mean, I feel like I could go to Ireland right now and right in.

David 26:29

well, you're McMillan.

Ian McMillan 26:31

That's true. Technically, that's Scottish. My wife is Irish. She's Kelly.

David 26:35

Well, my stereotypes have been corrected and I'm not a big, I'm not a big caption guy. I am not a big, like, I don't think that's great, but all my kids do it. It's an interesting

Ian McMillan 26:44

It's a, it is definitely a

David 26:46

generational dynamic.

Ian McMillan 26:49

Gen Z and lower I.

David 26:51

Hey, so. Six year anniversary of the COVID Low this last week. Thanks for going through that with me.

Ian McMillan 26:58

What if you were so scared you just went to cash and never went back?

David 27:01

Oh my goodness. And I guarantee you there are people that did that,

Ian McMillan 27:05

It has to be.

David 27:06

or was the, was the correction so fast? You know, we're talking about minus 35% in 23 trading days. It froze people. Is that one of those things where you just froze and you didn't do anything, so you were by and hold by default because you couldn't handle the emotional distress? I don't know. But yeah, if you didn't,

Ian McMillan 27:23

a good thing for people.

David 27:24

yeah, if you didn't get back in, I mean, you're talking about not that you had to be in at the COVID low. That's not what I'm saying. In fact, I. Argue that that would've been somewhat irresponsible.

Ian McMillan 27:36

You know, they're saying the R word is making a comeback. And if you were, if you were long at the low, I mean, great call. But

David 27:46

Right.

Ian McMillan 27:47

that would've been interesting.

David 27:48

Yep. Well, and since crossing back above the 200 day back then, markets up 133%. 133.

Ian McMillan 27:57

You more than doubled your money. Now imagine if you were, if you used the leverage,

David 28:02

Ooh.

Ian McMillan 28:03

Whew.

David 28:04

You know what? I, I think it's fascinating to think about, so that's six, that's six years ago. If we were to correct. I'm not saying we're, I don't even like putting this out in the universe, but I'm about to if we were to correct to the COVID lows. That'd be minus 67%.

Ian McMillan 28:21

Yeah, I saw my friend sent me a stat that said we could have another 1929 great Depression, and not go back to the COVID lows.

David 28:31

Yeah, 67% is, yeah, that's, that's legit. So pays to use technical analysis is what I say,

Ian McMillan 28:40

Gotta be a trend follower.

David 28:41

trend follower and the trend is your friend until the trend ends, my friend. And

Ian McMillan 28:47

our trend ended.

David 28:48

yeah, I think I, it, it, it's a, I mean, below these important levels, a 200 day, the 65 50, 65, 30 level on the S&P 500. Guilty into proven innocent.

Ian McMillan 29:00

If we got through 6,100, we'd be I, well, personally, I guess I wouldn't be, I mean, I'd be in cash

David 29:09

Right,

Ian McMillan 29:09

in cash,

David 29:10

right.

Ian McMillan 29:11

but below 6,100. We would have some serious issues. Serious, serious

David 29:18

You know, we're now in this area where we're creating a lower low than the past six months, which means sellers have control, but corrective markets also have violent countertrend moves. So somewhere in here you could have a flush lower, maybe you don't get that, I don't know. But you get a flush lower and a strong. Reversion to the mean to the 200 day, which is now starting to flatten out and then back down or not. You know, we've had how many V bottoms since 2018?

Ian McMillan 29:53

Too many.

David 29:55

Almost all of them.

Ian McMillan 29:56

We need to make bottoms around it again.

David 29:59

To wear a hat. Be a

Ian McMillan 30:00

hat,

David 30:01

it be, yeah. Would it be a red hat or a green hat? I'm not sure.

Ian McMillan 30:03

Oh, well you can't put that on a hat. Make bottoms, rounded. Again.

David 30:08

You get in trouble.

Ian McMillan 30:10

your wife would slap you.

David 30:12

That's probably while you're watching a episode, you shouldn't be watching.

Ian McMillan 30:16

yeah. Imagine walking around with that. No, no. It's not what it looks like. It's, it's about the market. Like that's twice I've had to explain myself.

David 30:26

Yeah. So yeah, we've got, we've got an interesting development. We haven't had a capitulation correlations move to one necessarily yet. We haven't had a 90% down day. I mean, you still have a VIX sitting at 29 and it,

Ian McMillan 30:42

about put call? You said put call.

David 30:44

what call is elevated? What call is elevated?

Ian McMillan 30:48

Yeah. V exit 29. This would be the highest.

David 30:51

Nothing says it can't go higher. And then you kind of look at what are the credit markets showing us? You know,

Ian McMillan 31:00

Yeah.

David 31:01

junk bonds versus intermediate bonds do not look good. Junk bonds in an absolute basis do not look good. Credit spreads continue to climb. And then outside the Iran narrative, I think the next big open secret is just private credit and you can look at all sorts of ETFs for transparency on that, whether it's BIZD, TCPC, PCR, VPC, HYIN.

Ian McMillan 31:31

Up to 5% this morning.

David 31:33

Yeah.

Ian McMillan 31:34

Hmm.

David 31:35

And.

Ian McMillan 31:35

So I'll not be refinancing anytime soon. I.

David 31:39

The bond market is, you know, especially the junk part or the BBBs, the Triple Cs definitely signaling some issues.

Ian McMillan 31:51

What's the what's the convertible one? ICVT?

David 31:55

that's a good convertible one to look at. Had been holding up, although we are flirting with 1 0 1 currently needs to hold.

Ian McMillan 32:05

not as bad as I thought it would look.

David 32:06

Right. And then I wor, I wonder about like consumer credit. You know, when you look at Visa and MasterCard on a relative basis, going back to 2018, not really. We're towards the bottom of the range in those relationships,

Ian McMillan 32:22

Yeah.

David 32:23

so.

Ian McMillan 32:24

visa needs to,

David 32:26

N Nana's maybe gonna be a little upset. Again, we're a little bit more bearish in this episode again, but for due reason, and we're,

Ian McMillan 32:34

mean, it is what it is, right?

David 32:35

yeah, we're below important levels. Sorry, Nana. We just are, and right now supply has controlled the market. I like what you've highlighted as far as the things that are holding up well.

Ian McMillan 32:47

When had the anchored vwa on S&P 500 from the COVID or from the Tantra tariff? Tantra flows

David 32:53

where we're at.

Ian McMillan 32:54

right now. Just a second. Look outside your window. You can probably see it.

David 32:57

I do see it.

Ian McMillan 32:59

Look up in the sky. You can see the S&P 500 bouncing.

David 33:03

Yeah. Maybe it holds this. Yeah,

Ian McMillan 33:06

It's like a lunar eclipse.

David 33:08

maybe we do hold.

Ian McMillan 33:08

Don't look at it directly though, Dave.

David 33:11

I've got,

Ian McMillan 33:11

It'll hurt your

David 33:12

I've got vwo, I've got volume weighted average price glasses. I can, I can,

Ian McMillan 33:16

good. Oh, perfect. You pick some up.

David 33:18

yep.

Ian McMillan 33:18

They were handing that

David 33:19

They got'em at Walgreens.

Ian McMillan 33:21

said, the big, the big bounce. Are you, are you going, are you guys gonna watch it? Oh yeah. Yeah, we are. be outside on the driveway. A anchored v WP

David 33:33

Yeah.

Ian McMillan 33:33

the kids outta school.

David 33:34

Yeah. We'll see if that, we'll see if that can hold. How's your, uh, March Madness bracket doing?

Ian McMillan 33:41

I am first

David 33:42

You are?

Ian McMillan 33:42

client

David 33:43

Yeah. You are

Ian McMillan 33:44

so that's all that matters to me.

David 33:46

still trying to figure out how we're gonna ship this giant trophy to you?

Ian McMillan 33:50

You could send me a tiny one,

David 33:52

No, we're gonna, no way.

Ian McMillan 33:55

but then I have to, I have to ship it back.

David 33:56

Yeah.

Ian McMillan 33:57

Is it engraved each year with the winner?

David 33:59

Yeah.

Ian McMillan 34:00

It is.

David 34:01

Yeah. So why? Or maybe you don't ship it back'cause you win again. Why are you thinking negative here?

Ian McMillan 34:07

I would've to carry it through the

David 34:09

Yeah, a little early to say you're the winner though.

Ian McMillan 34:12

Well, I don't know. It is. Yeah. Last night someone got the Illinois game last night. I didn't get that one. Chris Wall.

David 34:20

Bear

Ian McMillan 34:21

Do you do the tournament challenge? Second chance.

David 34:25

I do not

Ian McMillan 34:26

Yeah. What an absolute loser idea that is.

David 34:30

like.

Ian McMillan 34:31

chance. Oh, here. You suck The first weekend. Try try again. Filling it

David 34:36

Yeah, they need to do that.

Ian McMillan 34:38

is, that's for dorks.

David 34:40

take my lumps. I'm not gonna sit there and like, yeah, I, I got, I got knocked out. I can still finish top five, but

Ian McMillan 34:49

five solid.

David 34:50

Yeah.

Ian McMillan 34:51

You could brag about the top five in the men's

David 34:53

Yeah, no, yeah, exactly. I can say that. No trophy. So basically Fifth Loser, if I'm in top five, yeah. I'm not doing some second chance bracket.

Ian McMillan 35:04

place. I do need, do, need Duke to pull it out. It's gonna be a big game.

David 35:09

Duke?

Ian McMillan 35:10

right?

David 35:10

I think so. Is Duke your champ?

Ian McMillan 35:12

They are, man. I love St. John's though.

David 35:16

I do love me some. Rick Pitino.

Ian McMillan 35:19

I know. I know. He's not like the greatest person to ever walk the earth, but

David 35:24

Oh yeah. As an individual. I, I. But I appreciate his hard coaching. I mean, I appreciate him.

Ian McMillan 35:30

Yeah.

David 35:31

Especially

Ian McMillan 35:31

I had Florida. Oh, I had Florida winning the Iowa Nebraska game. I always loved those.

David 35:36

in what way? What do you mean?

Ian McMillan 35:37

When you, when you have the winner of a game, they didn't even play in

David 35:42

Well,

Ian McMillan 35:43

Iowa, Illinois, man, the big 10,

David 35:45

the big.

Ian McMillan 35:46

big ten's having quite the showing.

David 35:48

10 and I really thought Wisconsin was gonna go farther, but obviously a high point took care of that. It's all good. Alright. Enough digressing. If you're still listening,

Ian McMillan 35:59

are we gonna, what are we going to, what are we gonna talk about if we staple at the 200 day? There's gonna be a lot of digress.

David 36:04

I think, I think it'll, yeah, I think it'll be good to highlight the things that are. Holding up and there are things that are holding up that you want to pay attention to once the correction is over. You never know when the correction's over. You don't know that until afterwards. Some people think that's one of the big fallacies of human beings is looking at a chart and saying, well, why didn't you know it wasn't gonna bottom there? Well, nobody knows that. So it's important to look at during this corrective behavior, what is holding up and maybe. Maybe you hit the nail on the head. Maybe we're gonna hold this v WP from the terra tantrum low and move higher. We got people all hedged to the hilts and those become future buyers and we're soon back above a 200 day, doesn't necessarily fit the midterm election year script seasonality,

Ian McMillan 36:55

when? When are we supposed to bottom?

David 36:57

typically in summer.

Ian McMillan 36:59

Summer.

David 37:00

And I, I did look up. I did look up. If I can return to it. Longest day of summer is June 21st, 2026. Summer solstice. It's gonna be amazing.

Ian McMillan 37:12

I don't know. I hope I'm, I'm busy.

David 37:14

Not as busier. A neighbor who's out there mowing, lawn, blowing leaves, and grass.

Ian McMillan 37:19

I am busier than them.

David 37:21

Okay. That's good.

Ian McMillan 37:22

Oh yeah. I'm busy. The boomers always tell me.

David 37:26

That's good.

Ian McMillan 37:28

It is.

David 37:28

Well, I know we gotta get you off of here'cause your son's got a presentation on Saturn, one of the coolest planets.

Ian McMillan 37:34

It is pretty cool. I've learned a lot about Saturn in the last two weeks.

David 37:38

I mean, the fact that it has. 274 moons.

Ian McMillan 37:43

What if we had 274 moons?

David 37:45

That'd be really cool to look at. I think.

Ian McMillan 37:48

What do you think our oceans would be like?

David 37:50

I don't even know.

Ian McMillan 37:51

Dump the moons, like control the waves.

David 37:55

Yeah,

Ian McMillan 37:55

had 246 of'em with competing gravitational poles.

David 38:00

I never knew that. Its largest Moon is bigger than Mercury. Never knew that. Or maybe I did. I just don't remember it.

Ian McMillan 38:07

I am sure. These are all things we were told

David 38:09

Yeah, we all did. The

Ian McMillan 38:11

of

David 38:11

styrofoam planets.

Ian McMillan 38:13

You know, my, you know, Connor said only two of them did models

David 38:16

What

Ian McMillan 38:17

of the 13 kids in his class, 13 or 14. He said only two did models.

David 38:21

sounds like they didn't win their March brand either.

Ian McMillan 38:23

was like, that would be, I would be disappointed if you didn't go the model route. This is your one chance to do, like you said, to do this styrofoam ball.

David 38:32

Wow. Crazy.

Ian McMillan 38:34

Now, to be fair, this was supposed to also be a, kid was supposed to do like a hundred percent of the project themselves.

David 38:43

Okay.

Ian McMillan 38:44

So I could understand if most kids would be intimidated by having to do a model.

David 38:52

That's true.

Ian McMillan 38:53

Not my boy.

David 38:55

He's after it student athlete

Ian McMillan 38:57

his

David 38:57

out there playing soccer.

Ian McMillan 38:58

it head on.

David 39:00

Yeah, playing soccer, putting together models. I can't wait, wait to hear about some fun facts about Saturn from you, but I. So enjoy that with your son. I think just wrapping up this episode, supply has control, sellers have control of this market currently. Could we be bottoming today on that volume weighted average price from the tariff tantrum? Lows? Could be. There's also a volume gap here. Uh, 6,100 is possible, and really until we get above the November lows. On SP 500, let's call it sixty five, fifty and a 200 day moving average market's guilty until proven innocent. And so if you stayed on here with this, you know, this full episode, we do ask you to share this with your friends and family. Give us a high ranking on your platform, a choice. That means a lot to us. Ian. Thanks for doing this with me. We'll be back for our. Next episode, which is either on a Thursday or the following week.