Episode 294: Datalyzation

In this week's episode David and Ian discuss the S&P 500 being back above a 200 day moving average, where do you start with reconstructing your portfolio, the strength out of semiconductors and other risk-on areas of the market. They also discuss how software, private credit, Bitcoin, MAGS, and FNGS continue to lag. Other topics discussed are International equities and is the move in oil and energy over? 

Transcript

David 0:48

Welcome back to the Weekly Trend Podcast. Today is Friday, April 10th, 2026 S&P 500, currently sitting at 68 37. I'm David Zarling. I'm here with Ian McMillan. Great to be back after two weeks. Did you have a good Easter Ian?

Ian McMillan 1:02

I did. Did you?

David 1:03

Yeah, it was wonderful. Anytime we're.

Ian McMillan 1:05

That is.

David 1:06

Celebrating the resurrection of Jesus Christ who saved us. Pretty special, appropriate to take some time off. So we hope people didn't mind too much, but we're back and plenty to cover based on this week.

Ian McMillan 1:19

Yeah. Some weeks it's pretty cool to be a trend follower over something. It's not Dave,

David 1:25

Yeah, well it is. It, you know, I think it's.

Ian McMillan 1:28

I guess. It's always cool.

David 1:30

It is always cool. And we had April 8th this week, you know, a gap up in the s and p 500, back above a 200 day back above this 6,800 level that we've talked about at nauseum over the last, uh, let's call it five months. And now we get to see what they do with it here. When you look at that price action, you know, below 200 a and a gap above it. Last time we gapped above the 200 A was May of 2025 off of the tariff tantrum lows. Is it the same? A little bit different.

Ian McMillan 2:06

Not just that gift above 200 and a 50 on the same day.

David 2:12

Okay,

Ian McMillan 2:13

Now, a lot of data shared on that this week, as always, right? We're in the over, over datalyzation of markets. I would call it. I know datalyzation is not a word,

David 2:25

now we're gonna make it a word. That's a good word.

Ian McMillan 2:27

So some mixed I haven't gone to, you know, I think a few years ago I would've like been interested or gotten verified. So some people say it's happened three times. Some people say it's happened six times. Some people say it's good, some people say it's bad. When you look at that, the for forward looking returns I don't know. I know we're back above 200 day.

David 2:55

And that's good. That part's good, but I, I think the difference I data-wise, if we're talking ization, is you look back at that gap from. May of 2025, back above a 200 day,

Ian McMillan 3:11

Yeah,

David 3:12

that was also accompanied by massive breath expansion. You know, you had, at that time you had, you know, you had a couple 90% updates

Ian McMillan 3:25

That's not the vibe you're getting this time around.

David 3:26

preceding. So now in fairness, I mean on that particular day, you know, May 12th, 2025 you were at like, I mean that was 79, 80% update. That's not what we saw.

Ian McMillan 3:41

we on Wednesday?

David 3:43

About 75, 70 5%. So it's just a little bit different. And I know you brought up the, prior to jumping on here, you know, just. If you excluded energy outta that, what would that look like? And we'd have to do some digging, which is working in the background. I'll let you know if I, if that, if that work gets done. But it is just a little bit different in the fact that you don't have quite the breath expansion on that. But who are we to complain? I mean, backup, backup of a 200 day. Yeah, there's a gap there. It will be interesting what supply and demand does in this area just because we, we are back above 6,800. That's important. Back above a 50 to 200 day, that's important, but this area between 60 807,000, uh, a lot of price history here. Going back to October of last year, you know, you talk about Halloween of 2025. Whether we wanna call it Reformation 2025, whatever, late October through March of this year. There's a lot of history there and it's gonna be interesting to see if we can chew, chew through what would be potential supply. So I brought up the lack of breath. I mean, there is some breath, but.

Ian McMillan 4:57

All right, so if you, so if this is it. It is done. We get our little, I don't even know what I mean. How big of a correction was this? 9%, 10%? Maybe. A little less than 10%. If you go from the January 28th highs, it's 10%. We're above the 200 day. The longer we stay above the 200 day, we gain evidence that uptrend back on track.

David 5:26

Yep.

Ian McMillan 5:27

So, where are we going? I,

David 5:29

Yeah. That's a great,

Ian McMillan 5:30

if you had to, if you had to re start reconstructing your portfolio today, are we buying?

David 5:36

oh, I love, that's a great, that is a great, uh, way to ask the question. And the simple process would just be like, what has been, what has shown strength? During this period, you know, what things actually didn't flinch during the 10% correction or, you know, didn't correct nearly as much. And I thought you guys, you and Kevin did a great job this week. Semiconductors all time highs now,

Ian McMillan 6:00

That was quick.

David 6:01

you know, if you look at

Ian McMillan 6:02

they never made it below 200 a.

David 6:04

Never made it below a 200 a, had a, had a false breakdown below 3 75 using SMH

Ian McMillan 6:10

Yeah.

David 6:11

and now. All time highs and really what

Ian McMillan 6:15

time highs up another two and a half percent today.

David 6:19

and you look across the sector, there's Yeah. Quick. Yeah.

Ian McMillan 6:21

I mean that's where every like that's clear. That is clear demand to me.

David 6:24

Mm-hmm.

Ian McMillan 6:26

And I guess it shouldn't be a surprise. It's not like we haven't talked about semiconductors. I mean, the relative uptrend has been, I mean, yeah, really since the bottom of the tariff. Now you can go back even further. You could say it's a multi-year which it is. I mean, semiconductors have been outperforming since. 2012 really, I guess you could say. Really in 2016 it got very strong. 2016,

David 6:55

Yep.

Ian McMillan 6:57

They did underperform 2024 into the tariff tantrum lows last April and. Pretty strong relative chart even through all this mess.

David 7:11

Yeah, so former leader remains the leader now. It can't hurt. And I, I do think it's notable. You know, we've talked about do semiconductors ever become its own sector? Don't know. Don't have an answer for that. But you look at your major 11 sectors, none of them making new highs yet still can, but semiconductors and AI stocks, including data centers.

Ian McMillan 7:37

Yeah, server pretty good.

David 7:39

Still.

Ian McMillan 7:40

S-R-V-R-A-I-S

David 7:45

Yep. Chat

Ian McMillan 7:47

chat.

David 7:48

making new highs. So you do have risk on behavior in semiconductors and ai,

Ian McMillan 7:53

Yeah, Kevin brought up chat yesterday.

David 7:55

so that's not necessarily.

Ian McMillan 7:56

Biotech the only, the only other thing, I mean, biotech stands out. I, I'll tell you one thing I'm a little surprised by,

David 8:05

Okay. I like.

Ian McMillan 8:07

given that. Very stretched rubber brand. And then we got a market bounce. And again, right, it's not like the market, it's not like we bottomed on Tuesday. market has been moving higher going back to late March, mean it's been a couple weeks, we've been moving higher. And so you say to yourself. I say to myself, okay what are some things, right? If, if it's, if we're back to risk on, are people gonna run these really beaten down areas? And I think for most market participants probably software comes to mind. Software. If you look at an I-G-V-X-S-W these were. Really, I mean, these things have been underperforming for a while. And you know what, Dave? Much like semiconductors, but in the opposite direction,

David 9:06

Yeah, it's pretty abysmal what they did to software this week.

Ian McMillan 9:10

pre previous laggers looks like they're gonna continue to lag.

David 9:14

Yeah, they've been laggard since that.

Ian McMillan 9:17

I am shocked. I mean, I'm not shocked. I'm not shocked as a trend follower and as a believer in momentum. I guess maybe the better word is, I mean, it's notable. Notable is definitely a word I would use. I guess, yeah, a little, I mean, a little surprised and certainly taking mental notes that. Zero interest in software still.

David 9:39

Yeah, considering you had, you know, a two plus percent update on the eighth Wednesday and software's gonna close, you know, or well, we're a little while to close, but a negative week for software where they use IGV. Or XSW. I mean, even I just, that is notable. And you, and you look at private credit, whether you're looking at private credit funds, an example would be,

Ian McMillan 10:06

What do you, what do, what do you look at for that?

David 10:09

BIZD

Ian McMillan 10:11

BIZD?

David 10:13

is is an interesting, you know, comparison. And then your private credit issuers like Apollo, Aris Management, KKR

Ian McMillan 10:24

You mentioned KKR.

David 10:25

the private credit piece is still problematic, and that's related to software. So software and private credit still a problem. Now, that doesn't mean that the market can't move higher by any means. That's not.

Ian McMillan 10:41

I mean Apollo though that that looks like it's not, don't know. Maybe we just continue to get it bifurcated. Market That looks terrible. I don't, I, I don't see, you know, why Apollo would it take another leg lower? Looking at that chart

David 10:57

Yeah.

Ian McMillan 10:58

could be wrong. I.

David 11:00

And, you know, like I, it's just interesting and, and there's no, there's no advantage. Let's put it this way. There's no advantage to owning private credit software in this environment, and there's definitely an advantage to owning semiconductors and AI stocks.

Ian McMillan 11:16

Yeah. What about, okay, what about Bitcoin? I assume it's probably higher. No.

David 11:27

I mean, it's, it's at 70,

Ian McMillan 11:29

Yeah.

David 11:29

72,000. It now, this level right here for Bitcoin is the volume weighted average price from the January 26 highs. Which is what we would describe as a vwa handoff, right?'cause that January 26 sell off. So that for context, that was 96,000 on Bitcoin at that time, and we sold since then. That was the volume weighted average price from October. Again, there's that theme again. October, 2025. Things have shifted like I think, I think as a market technician and. Yeah. Individuals who study the market through the lens of technical analysis and supply and demand. October of 2025 continues to show up as being an important mile marker in the market. You know, you have Bitcoin selling off since then. Back in January is when they sold off from the October, 2025. 2025 vwa. We're at that level now in Bitco.

Ian McMillan 12:26

Doctor Peaked.

David 12:27

Yeah. And that's when software peaked. So you have, and a lot of crypto, not just Bitcoin struggling during that time. I think that's worth paying attention to is what are the things that showed strengths since October, 2025. Semiconductors being one of those things. And that's a good thing. But you look across sectors. There are no sectors at new all time highs yet. Makes sense. There's no s and p's not at new highs, but I think you need to pay attention to those things that are at new highs and semiconductors. AI stocks are part of that group. You gotta look.

Ian McMillan 12:58

Pure growth. What do you think about pure growth being an on pg?

David 13:02

There you go. And is that a breakaway gap?

Ian McMillan 13:06

Hmm.

David 13:06

Because you look at RPG versus s and P, and that's new, three year highs.

Ian McMillan 13:12

So if RPG is breaking out to new highs now it could fail. It could fail. That's always a possibility looming out there at any moment. But for the sake of this conversation, if growth continues to outperform. Well, not just outperform, I mean, we, it is all time highs. Yeah. I, I guess, I guess we're back. We're back on the, back in the saddle, Dave.

David 13:37

Yep.

Ian McMillan 13:38

Yep. As a trend follower, I like my trends to last, you know, multiple months if possible. I still haven't, no one has asked me what I want. I've never got to deal my own hand. You know,

David 13:57

You just have to deal with the market's hand.

Ian McMillan 13:59

you get what you get. Sometimes they gap at 3%.

David 14:03

Well, I think I,

Ian McMillan 14:04

I

David 14:04

I do think it's

Ian McMillan 14:06

think it's.

David 14:07

important to remember, I mean, if you think about catalyst for further upside from a technical analysis perspective, I'm not talking about macro narratives. Yada yada. So you have this, what I'll describe as a massive move off of the co uh, off of the tariff tantrum, lows from April of 2025, right? The market using s and p 500 moves 44%. It's pretty nice, you know, in, in a year's time to move 24%, but you consolidate for since. September or October of last year, so we're talking about five to six months and you have a false breakdown in that sequence that we had at late March of this year.

Ian McMillan 14:54

Yeah.

David 14:55

It's, it's kind of hard to argue with the fact that that is a quality technical setup for moving price higher. The one caveat being. If I were being picky and I'm allowed to be picky, just a little bit more breath like, could we get two 80% upside days back to back or could we get a 90% upside day? Doesn't have to happen, but back above a rising 200 day, that's a great start Back above 6,800 in the s and p 500. That's a great start.

Ian McMillan 15:24

1600, right? I mean, at the end of the day, you got, you gotta pick a number and moving averages of cool indicators, oscillators anchored, v wps, all, all this stuff we can use. But I'm a firm believer that. At the end of the day, you gotta have a line in the sand and 68 hundred's a big one. And if you're above that, it is what it is. If we go back below 6,800, it is what it is. I mean, you didn't really Yeah, you the 200 day also a good one. We didn't really get the opportunity to use the 200 day per se. At least not what's the best way? Now, of course, yeah, you could have just got long Wednesday. having gotten, we could retest it. We could come back and fill this gap or retest the 200 day. But so far I don't really think you can bank on that. It did happen after the terrace tantrum very quickly. We went back to 200 a for like one day. And then it was. After the

David 16:29

What I I, I think that's actually a fair objective observation. That if sometime in the next few months we go back to test the 200 day, and I wanna be careful. I'm not saying that that is support or any of those things. It's a moving average of price for the past 200 days. But if we get to that level and fail, that would be tremendous information that the

Ian McMillan 16:54

You saying like, go back below the 200 day again,

David 16:56

back below a 200 day it'd be.

Ian McMillan 16:59

2022.

David 17:00

Yeah, it'd be high quality information if we can't hold a 200 day, if that's the big, if, if we get back to there. Again, I'm not saying we do to your point, but if, if we do, what happens if we can't hold the average price for the last 200 days? We might have more corrective behavior on our hands, and you measure that against a. Midterm election year and, and seasonality speaking, summer weakness. I think that's a possibility to have price pull back into that area, but we'd have to see what our response, or we don't see it again. Like this gap that we saw on April 8th was the start of a brand new leg. You know, we consolidated for six, six months had a bear trap below 6,800. Got everybody caught. Short market moves against them. Pain trade market moves higher. We don't even, we don't even come back to the 66 60 level, which is where the 200 day currently sits. And you, in that environment, you'd wanna see semiconductors lead. I think you'd also wanna see confirmation from other sectors of making new highs.

Ian McMillan 18:07

Yeah,

David 18:08

have any, we don't have any other sectors making new highs.

Ian McMillan 18:10

can't be a semiconductor thing.

David 18:12

Right.

Ian McMillan 18:13

Apple's working on, I mean, Apple's trying. I'm very, I'm still very unimpressed with Microsoft.

David 18:18

Brutal. Brutal.

Ian McMillan 18:20

Kevin and I were chatting yesterday, still really unimpressed with mags in general and fangs, if you wanna look at it, MAGS and FNGS you know, they could do it, right? I mean, it's been a quick, it's been a quick move. Quick move off of the late March lows.

David 18:38

And what before we jumped on here, I think some other, I'll call'em bellwether stocks is kind of, you know, you mentioned Caterpillar,

Ian McMillan 18:46

Okay. Caterpillar and Cummins all time highs.

David 18:49

so that's Donna.

Ian McMillan 18:51

you know, was a leader before all this relative chart's not too shabby. I mean, as far as owning sectors above a relative 200 day, it checks that box,

David 19:04

What about internationally? Hmm.

Ian McMillan 19:05

man. That's a tough one. I think emerging markets is tough on a relative basis. It's tough, on an absolute basis. Right now. You got this gap from March 3rd, which we have filled, have filled we by creating another gap. Not that i'll, they all have to be filled, but. Price history to the left. I think given the move, emerging markets has come off of the long-term chart, consolidate above 56, 57 for while? I think that's ideal. I mean, still pocket, it's Poland and. I think Norway, Poland, and Norway still fine. Brazil

David 19:57

Yeah,

Ian McMillan 19:57

good.

David 19:59

and that's one we've talked about in the past is having held up well

Ian McMillan 20:02

Yeah.

David 20:03

the beach balls were getting pushed under water.

Ian McMillan 20:05

And our before I say this, I believe, I think it's above, oh yeah. Argentina not. oh, you would think that would be doing better? Like if I told you that Latin America ILF was already at all time highs, I think I would say, okay, well I know Argentina's gotta be there then given the last couple years of price history, it's not so kind of interesting. I thought Canada had been pretty strong. I, it's pretty similar to the s and p relative uptrend, though. I guess this all goes back to what are we doing on the dollar.

David 20:43

Still below, still below a hundred trade weight, a dollar back to a 200 day sitting at 98 point 60 98 70.

Ian McMillan 20:53

So dollar out again at a hundred. Dixie gets hit really hard. Dollar index gets hit really hard Wednesday. Coinciding with the gap higher for major indices. So I guess we are in still in the weak dollar good for stocks. That's what we wanna see. I would say that's continues to be the evidence still above a 200 day which was in a downtrend for most of 2025 has flattened out here. In the first quarter of 2026 and maybe moving upwards, we'll see if that matters. Or we just go back to deciding that a strong dollar is good for stocks. I don't know, but right now, short term, we seem to like the. The week dollar,

David 21:48

And I would say financials are definitely not out of the woods. I mean it, it did gap up on Wednesday, but now we're responding to using XLF, the 51 30 level, you look.

Ian McMillan 21:58

Yeah, and then I see like KRE Kres back to 70, which was, I mean, that's a pretty big level for KRE regional banks. You wanna go all the way back to 2021?

David 22:11

So on the one hand you've got software and AI stocks doing well. Some international areas holding up that are dollar sensitive, not too shabby, like to see some other sectors start to make new all-time highs. So definitely not outta the woods by any means, but at least as a start. And it, you know, if you were to pick a start, I'd love to see a little bit more breath expansion. Don't always get what you get want, you know, what you want. Like you said, the, you don't always get dealt the hand that you want, and now you gotta wait for more data to come in, in the proverbial term. We gotta see, we'll see.

Ian McMillan 22:46

Another candle every day. Dave, I find myself saying, got, well, guess we'll wait for another candle.

David 22:53

So it's kind of the great InBetween, you know, back into the 6,800 level for s and p. Could have been distribution before. We'll see.

Ian McMillan 23:00

Yeah. This isn't the way if you, I mean, this isn't the, to add, if, you know, if I was being picky, if I could if I could jump on your'cause I like that. You know, if I could, if I could have an ideal we are. Off the lows or 8% off the lows. I don't know if I would've, I, I would've done it a different way if I could have designed this move higher

David 23:28

Yeah.

Ian McMillan 23:29

over the last week or so, visually and price behavior speaking, I wouldn't have done it this way.

David 23:36

Yeah, it'd be, it had been great to see a little bit more breath expansion.

Ian McMillan 23:40

And the gap right now, we got this big gap right in the middle of this range we've been in. I mean, it's, again, I'm a firm believer not all gaps have to be filled. I think the fact that it's in the middle of this range. To Dave's point, it didn't happen on super enthusiastic buying as far as participation goes. Yeah, it's, I'm sitting up paying attention, but it doesn't, it doesn't feel like a, yeah, this is, this is it.

David 24:13

Yeah, I kinda have to clear 7,000 to confirm.

Ian McMillan 24:16

If it is, great, we'll have exposure, we'll be involved. But.

David 24:22

Yeah, I hate to say it. You just gotta wait for more information. I mean, the first two steps completed above a 200, day above 6,800. In the s and p, you do have some risk on areas doing well. If we do throw, throw back into a correction, I think software, I-G-V-X-S-W and private credit will be the canary, if not. You'll conti continue to see semiconductors do well. You would see sectors go out to new highs. That's what we'd be looking for. And I wanna say, unfortunately, it's really not. It's just the reality markets. We have to wait for that information. You have to wait to prove that supply doesn't exist here. That the supply that was there to start the year doesn't exist anymore, that we're just gonna clear. The 7,000 level on the s and p 500 and see, you know, sensitive sectors, pick back up, you wanna see financials do well. Doesn't have to do well on a relative basis, but on an absolute basis do well. And that's still well below a 200 day. And like you said, maybe it's just a, for a 2026, we're gonna see a market where mags underperform and there's certain segments that do well. And you get your, you know, somewhere between a, you know, a five and 10% return on the market overall with a lot of hot mess underneath.

Ian McMillan 25:46

What do you think about energy? Are we done with energy for a bit?

David 25:49

Yeah, that's tough. I mean, the past two weeks of price information U using XLE pretty

Ian McMillan 25:55

not quite the shiny new thing anymore.

David 25:57

Yeah, pretty tough. I mean, you have.

Ian McMillan 25:59

Crude itself, right? I mean, I think look at I mean you get up, I think we talked about this last week on the podcast, but I mean, crude, right? We got up to 115,$120 a barrel. That's pretty much as it was probably gonna get. Yeah, we got up to 1 47 back in oh eight, but I mean, one 15 a barrels been pretty much the extreme for American oil prices over the last I don't know, 15, 20 years.

David 26:31

Yeah.

Ian McMillan 26:31

So. That was probably a sign the energy, right? And it is what it is. Energy stocks pretty line with oil's doing. I don't think it's as direct, maybe necessarily as gold and gold miners per se. But yeah, definitely some weakness in the energy there. Still, 99 bucks a barrel XLE came down to the 50 day.

David 26:58

I,

Ian McMillan 26:59

but even that, also a relative chart that it probably it was a good run. Sometimes it's just a, it's just a good run and that's all there is to

David 27:08

yeah.

Ian McMillan 27:09

You just went little too high, a little too fast for too long.

David 27:14

Well, I, I think it's, you know, you bring up crude oil and or light crude oil and futures and being above 120 a barrel, you know, that in 2008 kind of preceded a, a bigger correction. Then at the same time, we were above that, you know, we were sitting at that level between 70 and a hundred. From the 20 10, 20 14 era, and then it kicked off, you know, another corrective period in stocks when it got above that level in 22. And I, I do think it's worth paying attention to that if we get above 120 in oil. Probably that rate of change in, in what oil is D doing does have an effect on stocks, but for now it's not above that. Still at 99, I think it's worth paying attention to that one for sure. What else? I'll, Ian, before I highlight the supporter of this podcast.

Ian McMillan 28:10

I've got nothing. I'm with you. I we're back above a five, above a 200 day. I think a lot of technicians skep, skeptical is not the right word. Just

David 28:26

it.

Ian McMillan 28:27

prove it as always. I, I think there's probably, at least for me, I mean, I, I think part of it's just. The well, our listeners can't can't visually see, but the the hardness with which I'm rolling my eyes, Dave, so hard, I'm rowing'em so hard.

David 28:45

Well, it, it, it, if you're gonna get a return to a bull, which I think we could definitely paint the case that since October it hasn't been, it's just been, uh, sideways. So lack of trend, if we're gonna return to trend, you gotta clear 7,000 on the s and p 500. And you wanna see things that have been leaders continue to be leaders and that's good that we're seeing what we're seeing outta semiconductors and ai. Not so good what we're seeing out of necessarily financials and software, and maybe even arguably the mags. But I should highlight the support of this podcast, the Adaptive Select ETF, listed on New York Stock Exchange under ticker A DPV, which helps investors. Access two of the most prevalent factors in markets, momentum and relative strength using proprietary identification methods, the adapt to select EETF, EXTE attempts to own the strongest 25 large cap stocks when the market is in an uptrend. And since, since not all market environments are the same adaptive to select seeks to prevent extended declines by moving to short-term treasury bills and cash during long-term market downtrends, investors can find out more including how to invest at ad PV by visiting ad pv etf.com. Or calling 1-833-880-FIVE 200. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal ad PBS distributor by Quasar Distributors, LLC. So it's great to be back on here. Any final thoughts before I ask our listeners to give us a high ranking on their platform of choice?

Ian McMillan 30:14

I don't, I guess well, barring anything. Super dramatic happening in the next four hours. A DPV will be back in equities on Monday. I could say that, right?

David 30:28

Five above a 200 is in the prospectus

Ian McMillan 30:31

five above

David 30:32

on a Friday.

Ian McMillan 30:32

public. So we'll see. We'll see what strategy as in store, what 25 lucky names. Are gonna get to participate in hopefully the next leg of this

David 30:45

Yeah, that would be great. Start the new leg of, new leg of a bull. We'll see. Gotta gotta hold. 6,800. Got a hold of 200 day. And like any discipline strategy, the following week, it could be out.

Ian McMillan 30:59

could be out. It's happened before.

David 31:01

It has happened before and that's okay. These things happen. So great to be back on here. Ian, I know we had the one week hiatus and for Easter. If you're listening to this and appreciate it, please share it with your family and friends. Give us a high ranking on your platform or choice. That means a lot to us. And we'll see you next week.

Ian McMillan 31:21

Have a great weekend everyone.