Episode 297: All Time Highs

 In this week's episode David and Kevin discuss the areas of the market going out to all-time highs, the return profile if you buy at all time highs, and the continued effect semiconductors, storage, and electronic components is having across multiple industries and sectors. They also discuss the areas of international equities that are performing well, how international performance is also tilted towards semiconductor exposure, the Magnificent Seven, bearish sentiment continuing, market breadth, and is the divergence between equity indices and risk-on areas a fixed income.  

Transcript

David 0:27

Welcome back to the Weekly Trend podcast. Today is Friday, May 1st, 2026. I'm David Zarling. I'm here with Kevin Firari. The S&P 500 currently sitting at seventy-two fifty-eight. Hey, thanks for being on the podcast two weeks in a row. It's pretty sweet. And we're in May.

Kevin 0:45

So, I mean, sell in May and go away.

David 0:48

Oh.

Kevin 0:49

after this podcast, you'll see my PTO request for approximately twenty days.

David 0:55

So you are gonna go away. Now, are you selling? Are you doing that too?

Kevin 0:58

No, I mean, it'd be pretty tough to sell at all-time highs, wouldn't

David 1:01

Yeah, all-time highs. Never on

Kevin 1:05

too.

David 1:05

a Friday. Yeah, it's really hard to, uh... I mean, it's one of the most bullish things the market can do is be at a price level that investors are willing to pay beyond all other prices.

Kevin 1:19

Yeah, prices they never paid before.

David 1:21

It's pretty wild.

Kevin 1:23

It is.

David 1:24

The Qs, all-time highs. Small caps, IWM, all-time highs. But the Dow Jones.

Kevin 1:31

Thanks a lot, Pam Bondi.

David 1:33

Yeah, still not at the Pam Bondi level, otherwise known as fifty thousand.

Kevin 1:38

Yeah,

David 1:38

If you don't get that joke, I suppose you could-- I bet you could Google Pam Bondi fifty thousand Dow Jones, and you get the inside track.

Kevin 1:45

Yeah, there's plenty of memes out there for that,

David 1:47

Yeah.

Kevin 1:47

and that's gotta be probably forever what she's gonna be known for, I would guess,

David 1:52

Sad.

Kevin 1:54

That's the way it goes.

David 1:55

Or botching the Epstein stuff.

Kevin 1:57

Well, that-- Yeah, that's probably bigger. Yeah.

David 2:00

Or both.

Kevin 2:01

Probably

David 2:01

Yeah. So our, I mean, all-time highs, this is a bad-- this would be a bad time to buy, right?

Kevin 2:08

I mean, well, it depends on philosophically where you fall in that, in that arena. I mean, to us, no, right? I mean, really all-time highs is really what we're looking for, for the most part, or at least new highs relative to some type of time period.

David 2:25

Yeah, it's confirmation of an uptrend.

Kevin 2:27

Mm-hmm. I mean, it doesn't get any better than that, really.

David 2:31

And I saw some information put out here by Peter Maluc. And if I'm mispronouncing your name, Peter, I apologize. But since nineteen eighty-nine, money invested when the market is at an all-time high has actually outperformed money invested on any given day. One year returns, if you bought at a new all-time high, thirteen and a half percent. Any other day, eleven point nine. Three-year returns, 46 if you bought at the new all-time high versus 39 any other day. 82% five-year returns if you bought at a new all-time high versus 74 any other day. That's kinda crazy.

Kevin 3:14

I

David 3:16

Counterintuitive.

Kevin 3:17

Mm-hmm. Yeah, right. Every... I mean, what is... I mean, you probably have heard this quite a bit in education meetings with the whole buy low, sell high. like prospects will bring that up'cause, right, we essentially talk about doing it really the opposite way, right, for some of this. I mean, you're looking for new highs to buy.

David 3:36

Yeah. Buy high, sell higher.

Kevin 3:38

Right. Which is hard for people to kinda wrap their heads around sometimes.

David 3:43

For sure. And that really, in a sequence of all-time highs, there's only one last all-time high.

Kevin 3:49

Right.

David 3:50

You know, we're very familiar with the dot-com bust highs in 2000 that were the last new all-time highs, but plenty of new all-time highs from 1982 through that point. Same thing with 2007 and'8. So there's always one last all-time high, and maybe we're marking it. Maybe this, this episode, May 1st, we're marking the last all-time high for a while. But how would we know? No one does.

Kevin 4:17

you never know. And if you do, you're not gonna tell anybody.

David 4:21

And it's most likely a guess. Only Lord Almighty knows if this is the last all-time high. What are we seeing out of sectors year to date? You know, when we look at the 11 major sectors in, in the US equity markets, where we stand?

Kevin 4:38

Yeah. I mean, energy is still leading by quite a bit. you what? Year to date around thirty-two percent, something like that, somewhere in there. You know, materials kinda come... I mean, it's, it's kinda grouped together really after that. You know, kinda materials, tech, industrials, utilities, real estate really kinda all bunched together around ten to twelve percent. Actually oddly enough, material is really the only industry this week at least that's still in the red. But, you know, if you, I guess, go more to like the industry level you know, I think, you know, tech and energy really kinda stand out at that point. Cause obviously like semiconductors, like we've been talking about quite a bit the last couple weeks, I mean, they really stick out like a sore thumb know, SMH up, know, 41% this year. You know, XES the way around 55 and a half percent.

David 5:35

Well, and isn't that information, like the fact that an ETF like XES is outperforming XLE, XES being oil and gas equipment and services versus just broad energy?

Kevin 5:48

Mm-hmm. Yeah.

David 5:50

That's kind of like that gold miners-gold relationship.

Kevin 5:52

Right. Yeah, a little bit. I mean, yeah, XOP looking like a little bit closer to 40%. So I mean, even XOP outperforming energy overall. Clean energy, you kind of throw that in there. I mean, those areas aren't really outperforming broad energy, but really it's pretty close. You know, using like PBW for clean energy, around 26%. Solar TAN up 20, 21. So I mean, really even MLPs really aren't doing too bad this year either. For sure.

David 6:22

Yeah, no, I-- definitely notable, and I think, I think it's an int-interesting mix of sectors that are leading. You've got some very cyclical sensitive energy materials, industrials. And then you got your risk on in XLK, which you and Ian did a great job covering last week, a lot of it driven by semiconductors, AI-related items. Then you have your borderline defensives, utilities, real estate, staples. But then your underperformers barely, barely positive or negative on the year, discretionary communication services, financials, healthcare.

Kevin 7:03

And financials still red on the year, year to date so far. Just really can't get it going.

David 7:09

Right. So it's an interesting, interesting mix.

Kevin 7:14

Yeah, it is a weird mix. But I mean, we were even kind of talking before we started recording, even in some of those other areas, right? Like real estate, I feel like kind of stand... Well, I mean, even utilities stand out a little bit too. But like in real estate, right, it, it's like a lot of your, you know, more tech-related stuff, like your data centers and, you know, things on the techie side of real estate, which kind of stands out. Well, I guess not to jump ahead, but like some of these, you know, other areas of the market even, like just consistent themes with, you know, computer processing power, I mean, really that's kind of the theme that stands out regardless of the, the industry you look. When it's

David 7:51

No, that's a great point.

Kevin 7:53

they're manufacturing them, it's pretty consistent across the board.

David 7:57

No, you can jump anywhere you want, Kevin.

Kevin 7:59

I try not to jump too much. I don't have much of a vertical.

David 8:02

This-- You're like me, you can jump over a credit card.

Kevin 8:06

Maybe. I might pull something, but...

David 8:08

Yeah. Yeah, it's, it's amazing how that happens as you get older. I remember a day where I could actually dunk a volleyball, and now, now I get nervous if I were to jump that high. It's crazy. But no, I think to your point, when you look across the f- the, the, the fingerprints of semiconductors, memory, tech hardware is just apparent across multiple ETFs or, or multiple areas when you're, when you're looking. You know, even in utilities, you've got

Kevin 8:42

There

David 8:44

that are more tilted towards data centers. So it's, it's pretty interesting. And you mentioned clean energy, you know, some of that trying to fill gaps in the grid. I will say, though, there's something going on in offshore drilling when you look at some of those stocks. And then of course, everybody listening to this has kinda seen the price at the pump go up cause the gasoline futures have, have been on the move. And I'm sure the narrative, right, is, well, we're still dealing with the Strait of Hormuz, Hormuz and Iran thing, and I think that's valid. Where that stops, I have no idea.

Kevin 9:19

Mm-hmm.

David 9:20

What about materials? What are you seeing? You know,'cause that's the second-best sector, and a lot of that was driven early by gold miners and silver miners.

Kevin 9:29

Yeah, which really, I mean, they've cooled off quite a bit over kind of the, you know, last few months. But I mean, I think, you know, steel looks really good. I mean, at least current day SLX out to all-time highs currently, assuming they can, you know, kinda stick this here. You which is pretty good to see. I mean, even, you know, rare earth like a lot of your rare earth materials mean, they've had, you really pretty good probably year and a half, two years,

David 10:02

Yeah, you're talking like ET- ETF REMX?

Kevin 10:05

Yep.

David 10:05

Yep.

Kevin 10:06

So, I mean, not out to all-time highs, but I mean, if you look, you know, going back a couple years to like 2022, you know, like roughly Like this$105 level is a pretty nice level to see it clear

David 10:20

Yeah, for sure.

Kevin 10:22

so yeah, I think materials definitely is, is cooled off. A lot of that, for year-to-date returns still kind of miners baked in. But, you know, can you really argue with steel going out to all-time highs? I mean, I don't think so.

David 10:36

Right. What about industrials? Industrial's also sitting behind, just behind tech

Kevin 10:44

Mm-hmm.

David 10:45

year to date. I mean, they're, they're neck and neck. What are you seeing out of industrials?

Kevin 10:50

Yeah, I think there's kinda two stories there a little bit, right? Like we kinda talked about before with how far-reaching some of that,, semiconductor and, like, more techy side of that kinda plays into it. Like a lot of your electronic component manufacturers and things like that doing really well in the year. And I mean, as far as like performance contribution, you know, for a lot of those, you know, industrial-focused ETFs, I mean, they're kinda leading the way. Like Eaton would be a good example of that. Like your ETFs, like ROBO, so like robotics or IQM, intelligent machines, like a lot of those are pretty good or pretty high weightings to like semiconductors. So I mean, that, that theme's definitely in play. And I know you've kind of been bringing this up too a little bit, like a lot of those that focus on more of the, what's the term for it, reshoring or

David 11:48

Yeah.

Kevin 11:49

Like more US-focused industrials are doing pretty well. But like even in there, know, looking at like RSHO is one we like to focus on. I mean, electronic components and like manufacturing related to that or electrical equipment, you know, that's pretty much the highest contributor there year-to-date at least.

David 12:09

Yeah, so it's the, the hardware versus the pro- you know, you know, that supports a lot of the tech You co- you could almost call it like supply chain.

Kevin 12:19

Yep.

David 12:20

And that's kinda go-- you know, goes along with AIS, an ETF for artificial intelligence is, you know, heavily into the hardware and electronic components that go towards that and not the software. Like, when you look at software, I know that's been a narrative lately. IGV, your more traditional software, things like Microsoft, Salesforce, Oracle, Palantir, definitely off the highs heavily. But then you look at another s- quote-unquote software ETF, IGPT, and that's holding a ton of semiconductor names. So not all, not all software ETFs are the same. And then you mentioned for AI, data centers continue to be a theme. Anything else there that's notable in the AI?

Kevin 13:08

mean, not a ton. Well, and I guess just before I forget on like industrials, I mean, it's not like it's only things, you know, that really fit that theme. I mean, Caterpillar out to all-time highs yesterday. I mean, down a little bit today, but still looks really good.

David 13:25

Yeah. And that's an international name too. Like, that's a, that's a major global industrial firm, even more so than Deere.

Kevin 13:34

Mm-hmm.

David 13:34

I mean, nothing runs like a Deere, but you've got Caterpillar, a multinational company, new all-time highs, a leader over Deere. So your point is, is valid. It's not just-- There's smatters of other things that are going on here that's not just AI and semiconductors, but definitely infrastructure for energy-related going on, for sure.

Kevin 14:00

Right. And even, you know, like in like the agriculture space too really isn't doing too bad. Like MOO is one you can kinda use for that. What, year to date up like 15%. I mean, like you kinda dig into that too there a little bit, which is kind of almost backtracks a little bit into materials. like some of your ag-related materials those companies are doing pretty good, which I mean, I know I've heard people talking about too, at least in the ag space, you know, with kinda the Iran and like the Strait there. I guess that's definitely been pushing up the prices on like fertilizers and things like that quite a bit. So you know, maybe that's kinda what's going on there. But yeah, I think it really just comes down to, you know, as far as like alpha relative strength concerned. I mean, it's a lot of those AI-related areas that are kinda show-showing the alpha.

David 14:50

Yeah, for sure. Let me get, let me get-- Let me ask you this kinda, cause we haven't necessarily talked about this a bunch recently. But your Magnificent Seven, your MAGS, in prior years, not this year or even last year, were your leaders. And I think it's interesting that you have the following characteristics. You have Nvidia underperform- underperforming sem- semiconductors as a whole. You have Apple on a relative basis to S&P, you know, kinda going nowhere for six years. But yet Apple's about to go, you know, is trying to go out to new all-time highs as we speak. Maybe by the end of the day it's not. But if a large cap like Apple decides to go out to new all-time highs, there's gotta be something to be said for that.

Kevin 15:39

Right. Yeah, and I mean, even MAGS itself is really not that far from all-time highs today. I mean, you're talking not quite three percent.

David 15:48

Right.

Kevin 15:50

by the end of next week, we could be there.

David 15:53

Yeah, it's interesting.

Kevin 15:56

have kind of fought back here a little bit too, I mean, when's the last time we talked about, you know, FANGs really being in the picture? I mean, they're... I mean, they're a little further away, closer to, like, four percent probably.

David 16:06

Right.

Kevin 16:09

of a resurgence there as well.

David 16:11

Well, both of, both of them reclaimed their absolute two hundred-day moving averages and important levels. You know, we talked a, a couple episodes ago about the sixty-three dollar level on MAGS. Cleared that to the point of a false breakdown. FANGs is above an important level, around sixty-eight. Maybe the kids would say sixty-seven, six-seven.

Kevin 16:30

Don't start that again.

David 16:31

But so it's notable, and then you have small caps going at a new all-time high. So here you have MAGS potentially setting up Apple trying to go out to new all-time highs. I would argue Nvidia's sitting in the back pocket, and what I mean by that is Nvidia tried to go out at new all-time highs on Monday, has since pulled back, so we're back below two oh six on Nvidia. Nvidia's been underperforming semiconductors overall. If that decides to lead again, makes you wonder what the possibilities are going into the end of the year. And then I think about- We still have on the AAII survey of what do you think the next six months brings, we have bears outpacing bulls still, even though the market's at new all-time highs.

Kevin 17:16

Right. That's not very toppy feeling, right? That's really not what you would expect as far as, like, sentiment's concerned. I mean, that's the thing with NVIDIA, right? Is that the, the catalyst that, like, kicks us off into what we would expect, you know, to close out the year as far as, like, seasonality is concerned.

David 17:34

Right.

Kevin 17:36

maybe. Definitely wouldn't be shocked at all. But I mean, that's something... Even just mega caps in general are up to all-time highs, MGC. Some mega cap growth Even MGV, you trying to work through those previous highs. Hasn't been able to do it yet today, but it's right there.

David 17:56

Well, yeah, it's so interesting you bring that up, and then you look at micro caps, IWC versus IWM, positive alpha in that relationship year to date and an uptrend since the tariff tantrums in April of last year. So while we don't have, like, these massive breath thrusts, you know, like a zwig breath thrust or, you know, two 90% up days back to back, that type of thing that we saw in spring of last year. You do wonder because there is such a thing as a whaley price thrust, and there's only been eight of those since 1950. And the forward, the forward-looking potential returns on that, again, not a guarantee. You know, we haven't gotten-- We have-- We didn't get the, the zwig breath thrust. We didn't get breakaway momentum. But here we have a potential for a breath thrust use or a price thrust, I should say. And then you look at what RSI, a momentum indicator on the Nasdaq-100, which Roy Maddox pointed this out. Nasdaq-100 RSI went from twenty-eight on March thirtieth to seventy and a half by April fifteenth. So just eleven trading sessions, and that's the fastest oversold to overbought transition in the Nasdaq-100 in its four-year recorded history. That's kind of wild. And then according to Bespoke Investment Group, this is the fastest move from a correction. So the, the corrective behavior that we had In March, this response that we've had in April is the fastest correct- you know, move from a correction to a new record high since 1928. Kinda wild. And the forward, the forward data,

Kevin 19:39

Yeah.

David 19:40

which we won't know. Again, you know, you wonder in a midterm year whether we still get that, like you talked about earlier, sell in May and walk away. Do we get a slow summer going into midterm elections? And it's really interesting. Like, y- it's fun to talk about these things'cause are we tilting towards midterm election year seasonality, or are we saying that this is year six of an eight-year presidency? Because year six of a eight-year presidency has incredibly bullish seasonal characteristics, whereas a midterm year in general does not. So it's kind of a mixed bag there because we have the, uh, experiment that happened in between the Trump, Trump presidencies.

Kevin 20:24

Right.

David 20:25

call it that? Can I call it an experience- a experiment?

Kevin 20:28

Yeah, I mean, I guess. Why not?

David 20:30

That's a good answer. I was kinda putting you on the spot there. That was good.

Kevin 20:35

would always say,"You be the boss.

David 20:36

be the boss. Okay.

Kevin 20:38

He'd say that to everything.

David 20:39

Right.

Kevin 20:40

Ask him a question, he's like,"I don't know, you be the boss.

David 20:42

Okay. It's good.

Kevin 20:43

want."

David 20:44

It's good. I think at, at this point, I do wanna highlight the supporter of this podcast, the Adaptive Select ETF listed on the New York Stock Exchange under ticker ADPV, which helps investors access two of the most prevalent factors in markets, momentum and relative strength. Through proprietary identification methods, the Adaptive Select ETF attempts to own the strongest 25 large cap stocks when the market is in an uptrend. And since not all market environments are the same, Adaptive Select seeks to prevent extended declines by moving to short-term treasury bills and cash during long-term market downtrends. Investors can find out more, including how to invest in ADPV, by visiting adpv ETF.com or calling 1-833-880-5200. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. ADPV is distributed by Quasar Distributors LLC. And I think it's interesting that that product did adapt, that it went from a protective mode to re-participating pretty quickly last month. I think it was, you know, by March 23rd protection and by the following two weeks, April 13th, participating again It's pretty adaptive.

Kevin 22:01

I would I mean, I think even though, you know, it's always interesting to see how, like, the, the holdings shake out in there too. I mean, you know, your top two sector weightings, energy and tech, you know, pretty interesting. You know, Intel, largest holding in there, had a pretty good week, so You know, SanDisk obviously on like the, the storage side of that we've been talking about. Amkor in there too, I think they're into a semiconductor,

David 22:28

Mm-hmm.

Kevin 22:29

so...

David 22:30

Well, you bring up a good point with Intel. I mean we're, we're now heavy into earnings season. And as our listeners will always hear us say, it's not the earnings themselves, it's the price reaction to earnings, you know, weeks to months out. And so, so far so good for Intel for its earnings price reaction. And we've had other, you know, large cap, mega cap stocks report earnings. Kind of a mixed bag out there. But that's really what you're looking for.

Kevin 22:59

especially looking at Mag Seven. I mean, really the only ones that had negative... Well, I mean, Nvidia's got a way to go yet. I think they're what? Later in this month. But like Amazon Apple, pretty good. Really the only ones that stood out, like Meta, that's really a rough look there their earnings. Or was it the day following? Because I think they reported after the close. You know, gapped down, closed down probably close to 8.5%. It's been kind of a rough look for them. And then Microsoft too, not the greatest reaction there necessarily, but not to that extreme. But I think, you know, so far it's been more positive than negative, which is good.

David 23:40

For sure. So we got a couple minutes till we wrap it up here, and I wanna get your opinion on maybe on credit or fixed income,

Kevin 23:49

Mm-hmm.

David 23:50

or currency related. I'll let you take it where you wanna go. But I'm curious on your thoughts on, you know, whether it's junk bonds or high yield or convertible bonds or even international markets, what we're seeing out of those.

Kevin 24:04

Yeah, you know, like junk, like your high yield areas of credit. I don't know. I mean, as far as, you know, like a junk versus AGG you know, pretty much, I mean, I guess slightly underperformed, almost flat now. I mean, they've kinda come back here a little bit. It'd really be nice if, you know, JNK could kinda come up here and retest like 98 bucks again, at least get up above 200-day would be good to see. I mean, a little lethargic yet. I mean,

David 24:34

And if there was gonna be,

Kevin 24:35

bag.

David 24:35

if there was gonna be a red flag, if there was gonna be a, oh, you know, was this the last all-time high? I think there might be something out of here out of credit. The fact that

Kevin 24:44

Mm-hmm.

David 24:45

junk bonds and high yield bonds have not made new highs while the S&P and Qs have. I'm not saying worrying, I'm just saying, oh, that's okay. We gotta pay attention to that. You know, you'd like to see these clear out to, to new highs as well. What about international? What are we seeing there? You know, all-- are all emerging markets made the same, or we got weighting issues to consider there too?

Kevin 25:06

Oh, yeah. Big differences there. I mean, like, you know, we've kinda talked about this like a couple times throughout the year. You know, China really lagging behind. So if you look at emerging markets, ex-China, was it EEM? Ex... I can never remember the ticker for that

David 25:23

XCEM or EMXC, the one that ex-ex-excludes China? Yeah.

Kevin 25:30

Out to you know, right around all-time highs. I mean, we had an intraday all-time high. We'll see if that sticks today. But you know, definitely doing quite a bit better. And then it comes down to the, weightings really again, right? So what tech in EEM, thirty-six percent, semi is twenty-one percent of that.

David 25:48

Isn't that wild?

Kevin 25:49

the same...

David 25:49

Would you get... Would you, you know, will you sit there and think about emerging markets and you think about weightings? I don't think that's the first thing come, that comes to my mind.

Kevin 25:58

No. I mean, when you... I mean, it makes sense when you think, like, TSM, right? I mean, that one I kinda always

David 26:03

Yeah.

Kevin 26:04

forget about that it's out there. But I mean, you even have, like what we were talking about today still, like those electronic components, know, your hardware, storage, you know, things like that as far as like performance contribution. I mean, they're also leading the way internationally as well.

David 26:21

Yeah. I mean, you got,

Kevin 26:22

it's

David 26:22

you got

Kevin 26:23

theme.

David 26:23

TSM, Samsung, and SK Hynix equal twenty-five percent of EM ETF, the emerging markets ETF. Really interesting. Well, Kevin, I appreciate you, uh, jumping on here and doing this with me. We've reached the end of our time. Uh, we wanna always ask our listeners, if you like this, please share it with your family and friends. Uh, it's a great thing to enjoy with a cup of coffee, uh, maybe a cocktail, or maybe on a walk, or maybe while you're on the treadmill. Doesn't matter, but we ask you to give a high ranking out on your platform of choice. And Kevin, thanks again for being on here with me.

Kevin 26:59

bet. Absolutely.

David 27:01

Have a great weekend, everybody.