The Weekly Trend
The Weekly Trend is a conversation on various publicly-traded markets, seen through the eyes of technical analysis.
The Weekly Trend
Episode 300: CCC
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In this week's episode, David Zarling, Ian McMillan, and Kevin Firari discuss Nvidia performance versus Semiconductors and the broad market as a whole, areas of the market that are underperforming, equal weight S&P 500 (RSP) out to all time highs, recent AAII survey results, interesting names within the Nasdaq that are performing well, fixed income, and potential rate hikes.
Welcome back to the Weekly Trend podcast. Today is Friday, May 22nd, 2026. S&P 500 currently sitting at 7480, higher than last Friday. I'm David Zarling, and I've got both Kevin Firari and Ian McMillan this special 300th episode. Can you believe it's been 300 episodes?
Ian McMillanI can Last week was 299
DavidYeah, 'cause I said it, 'cause I said it
Ian McMillanThat's how numbers work. They go in consequential order
DavidCause last week was 299, now you know it's 300
Ian McMillanExactly.
DavidYeah, it's fair
Ian McMillanWhat do you think the next episode number will be?
DavidI think don't hold this to me, 301
KevinAnd really we can make it 302 if we wanted. What's the difference?
DavidThat is true. We could just We could make up numbers
KevinI was actually trying to remember this. Do you remember what year we started in?
Ian McMillanYeah, 2019.
KevinWas it 19?
Ian McMillanDecember 2019. It was like right before Christmas
DavidYep. And then COVID
KevinSo that's probably what caused it really
DavidYeah. Basically the, the podcast was epis- was patient zero. We infected everybody
KevinI hope you're happy
DavidLook it's been pretty amazing. Consistency is king. not saying all the episodes have been amazing and that's, that's 'cause of me. You guys have been awesome
Ian McMillanYeah, first episode was December 23rd, 2019
DavidPretty amazing. We love all the people that have listened. If you guys were to guess, no cheating Op cities that listen to the podcast
Ian McMillanYou are
DavidNew York, number one
Ian McMillanBut that makes sense.
KevinMm-hmm.
DavidIt
Ian McMillanIt'd be weird if it was in New York Right?
DavidYeah, that's what I think. If you're in the markets, chances are you live in New York What would be second? What do you think is second?
Ian McMillanSan Francisco
KevinHmm. I would've guessed like Chicago
Ian McMillanOr Austin
DavidChicago is three. You said Austin?
Ian McMillanYeah
DavidIt's not in the top 10
Ian McMillanIs it It's a large m- metro area
DavidYeah, large metro area. Non-US,
Ian McMillanthe US
Davidnon-US
Ian McMillanWell then
DavidOoh, I like that guess, but it's not Think
KevinBye
Davidlike a, a neighbor
Ian McMillanTrana
DavidYeah, true
Ian McMillanOkay, duh. I, oh God, I can't believe I didn't think of Canada. Kind of embarrassed
DavidAnd then the next out of continental US major metro is perth, Western Australia
Ian McMillanWho do you think that is? You think that's Nick Rach?
DavidI don't know what could be, but it's, it's, I think it's more than one
Ian McMillanHe would be, I have been listened to a lot of times.
DavidYes, right
Ian McMillanPerth? Is that like is Perth like a financial
DavidHmm, that's a
Ian McMillanHub All right, let's ask the Googles
DavidWell, and isn't Nick on the
Ian McMillanNo, it says Sydney and Melbourne are the main financial hubs
DavidYeah, and I think Nick is on the, Nick is on the eastern side
KevinMaybe that's where all the episode 225 or whatever it is that keeps popping up. Just somebody on loop
DavidSo they, so they go to sleep
Kevintrailers, yeah.
DavidThrow on the weekly trend and take a nap. Oh. What
KevinWhatever helps
DavidWhat, yeah, what do you think about these markets, boys? Let's talk about the stocks
KevinNvidia kind
Ian McMillanI guess they're okay
DavidNvidia?
KevinYeah, keep making all these Nvidia earnings AI images, and then underwhelming I feel like
DavidI, think it's kind of fascinating, you know
Ian McMillanAnd then you've got Nvidia down today, all the other Semis are up, or a lot of them are
DavidYeah, it, it's-- has underperformed, let's use SMH, since summer of '25. Underperformed
Ian McMillanit just I don't know. I kind of expect like... I know, I guess they just had earnings. I thought it was kind of setting up to go back in the driver's seat. Maybe it's just a, It's just not the shiny thing anymore. Like, it's g- it's one of those things, like it's good to see Nvidia participate, but it's just not the s- it's just not the cool kid on the block anymore. I don't know. Clearly from a relative strength standpoint, it's not. Again, that could change. I felt like we had a great opportunity here the last couple weeks for that to change based on price action, and hasn't really grabbed the bull by the horns, so to speak
DavidYeah What do you, what do you think about this thesis? So Nvidia has a 16% absolute return since June of 2024 So coming up on two years Pretty minuscule when you consider what's going on with semis overall
Ian McMillanOr even the broad market
DavidOr yeah, even the broad market Could it be indicative of risk-on behavior if
Ian McMillanYeah.
Davidare
Ian McMillanIf you're, yeah, if you're, if you don't feel the need to hang out in like mega cap semis
DavidAnd you're going into the smaller stuff, you're going into the stuff that's a little bit more volatile
Ian McMillanSK Hynix
DavidYeah, SK Hynix Marvell, Micron. Although Micron's probably bigger. That's... I don't know, I just think of Nvidia as
Ian McMillanMicron's big now
Davidgold standard
Ian McMillanI'm gonna talk about AMD anymore. Looks pretty good though
KevinYeah,
Ian McMillanmy be- beginning of my career, we talked about Micron a lot, and then no one talked about it for like 10 years. And now it's definitely a hot one again
DavidWere you gonna say, Kevin?
KevinAlmost like Intel too. You can kind of throw that in like the AMD bucket
DavidYeah when you look at one-year returns, Nvidia's at like 63%, Micron 700%, Intel almost 500% that's Fascinating And it's it's still sitting there. Like you said, it's participating. You know, it's still above a, a 200-day
Ian McMillanMaybe it's gonna be like the JPMorgan of semiconductors.
KevinI was literally just thinking that. Just
DavidYeah. Does it fall more into like a utilitarian
Ian McMillanLike everyone else just kind of like sp- I don't know. I don't know. I don't know. I guess what's great is I don't have to know
DavidThat's right
Ian McMillanto wonder. We'll see Anything else working besides semiconductor? We talked about semiconductors for three weeks, I feel like
DavidYeah, we've ta- yeah, we've been
Kevinit's gotta be longer
Ian McMillanEven longer
Kevinit? Three years, feels like?
David300 episodes? of semis? That's
KevinPretty much
Davidwhat it feels like
Ian McMillanWe were saying the other, other day, like, if you went back it was just Kevin and I, like, if you went back and looked at all the trades over the last six and a half years you by far, it's, it would have... It's semiconductors. Like, you constantly end up back in semiconductors
DavidYeah,
Kevinit has to be the most consistent outside of like S&P for exposure, like things like that
DavidI can think of
Ian McMillanYeah
Davidgood, really good runs with gold miners and silver,
Ian McMillan2024, not a lot of semiconductors.
DavidNo
Ian McMillanOr '20- well, 2022 was a bear. But yeah it was
Kevinof energy there for a while, but nothing has been as consistent, I feel like, year to year. We're at least ending up back in the semi group with a little slower in some form or fashion
DavidRemember when we were all excited for the differentiation, like early 2022 when we were owning energy and commodities and the market was dropping and That never really, that never really stuck
Ian McMillanYeah, that, yeah, that didn't end up being so cool, did it?
DavidNo
KevinEven like the international differentiation was like, hey, maybe we're actually gonna get an
Ian McMillanYeah.
Kevinon international. I
Ian McMillanthis... Okay, so you bring up foreign. What are we doing here? Emerging markets. Kinda getting messy on the relative.
DavidLook
Ian McMillanLike intermediate term messy. It's still in an uptrend, but
Davidat how terrible China looks. Chinese equities do not look good
KevinYeah, still can't get it together?
DavidEven, even your more broad ETFs like ASH or A-
KevinMm-hmm.
DavidASHR too great in emerging markets. Ex-China looks a lot better than emerging markets
Ian McMillanLooks like financials
DavidYeah.
Ian McMillanFinancials snuck
DavidYeah, on a relevant basis
Ian McMillanIt's not that bad
Davideven, absolute basis, right? Still
Ian McMillanI know Below 200-day. I, I don't know
DavidIs that the warning shot?
Ian McMillanWell, it's, it's a war- it's not until it is. I don't know what we're doing here, but it's weird. Isn't JP Morgan... Is JP Morgan below 200-day?
DavidRight there
Ian McMillanYeah. Back above as of right now, but Been been below for a couple weeks And then, right, it's one of those things where it's like, yeah, it could be consolidation, but now it's, it's kinda gone on too long
DavidI am happy to report that
Ian McMillanmy
Davidthe Dow Jones is above the Pam Bondi level
Ian McMillanPam
Kevinthe hook for now. For that anyway
DavidMm-hmm. Above
Ian McMillanThat's the
DavidMy Dow 50,000 hat
Ian McMillanFront running it. I have a Dow 49,000
KevinSee that? Like if-- 'cause like GSIB, right? So globally, we'll say important banks 'cause systemically is a very hard word to say, I feel like.
DavidYou just did it
KevinI know. I just figured I'd throw it in there. But year to date, like return contribution really it's... Is this Mizuho or is that, is
Ian McMillanOh, they all Japanese banks
KevinYeah. And it's like BNY Mellon, State Street, TD Bank, there was a thing there for a while with Canadian banks. Not sure what was going on there
Davidbanks
KevinBut, but
Ian McMillanYeah, I remember,
Kevinmore of a international bank tilt, and like Mitsubishi Financial's up there, HSBC
Ian McMillanWhen y'all were little, I don't know, Dave would know 'cause he's around youth baseball. Do y'all remember Mizuno cleats?
DavidOh,
Kevinyeah
Ian McMillanMizuno was like a legit brand. I always think about Cal Ripken and Mizuno cleats whenever someone brings up that bank. But now I feel like I never hear about that company
DavidIt's true
Ian McMillanIs it not around anymore in the youth baseball, Dave?
DavidI have not seen somebody wear Mizuno cleats
Ian McMillanThat was like a classic, like black low top cleat
DavidYeah. Well, and they had the tongue, the, the lace tongue. You know? Like, that's not a thing anymore. You know,
KevinI feel like even their batting gloves of that brand even were popular there for a while.
DavidThose,
Kevinlike
Davidthose I do see, batting gloves I see some
Ian McMillanI remember batting gloves, and then I remember Franklin was, like, the first brand to come out with, like, colored gloves
DavidOh
KevinFranklin's just always way too generic.
Ian McMillanThey are very generic. Very generic Need when you're playing in the sandlot
KevinThat's true
DavidWhat, do you know what the I, I think are the hottest batting gloves right now? Youth and pro
Ian McMillanI don't know what
DavidWhose bolts?
Ian McMillanBruce Bolt
DavidYeah, Bruce Bolt batting gloves. They got these ones that like go a little higher on the wrist. They're almost like Weightlifting gloves. They're, I don't know, they're all the rage.
Ian McMillan$65
DavidYeah. My, my kids do not wear that, FYI
Ian McMillanThey kind of look like superhero gloves
DavidYeah, Bruce
Ian McMillanBruce Bolt
DavidYeah, I don't know, I don't know why we got rid of the tongue, the tongue to cover the laces if we're sliding, if we're working, we're Charlie Hustle out there
Ian McMillanStirrups. Kids don't wear stirrups anymore
DavidNo.
Ian McMillanOh, we have lost so much American culture
DavidNow we're wearing oven mitts?
Ian McMillanYeah
Davidweak
Ian McMillanAnyways
DavidWe did
Ian McMillanSorry, I got us sidetracked
DavidWe, we sidetracked over there. Equal weight S&P, new all-time high
Ian McMillanHey, confirmation
DavidYeah, I think Dow new all-time high, equal weight S&P new all-time high, confirmation again, relative performance not all that great
Ian McMillanYeah, probably don't wanna... Okay, so what about breath? Breath is confirming
DavidRef the sketch
Ian McMillanNYA not, not very close to all time. We're close, but like in the grand scheme of price behavior compared to the other major indices, NYSE Composite, a little disappointing
DavidYeah. Agreed. And it's, it's an interesting-- isn't it always interesting? It's an interesting market. We could say that all the time
Ian McMillanWhole life I've been saying it
DavidIt, micro caps outperforming small caps
Ian McMillanI know, but yet, I don't, I don't know. I guess that's happening. Maybe I don't swim around enough in the microcap world I don't
Kevineven I guess more near term,
Ian McMillanknow
Kevinnot quite over the last 12 months. Microcaps outperforming mega caps even. More as of late it's been kinda sideways
Ian McMillanI guess all my scans are 300 million market cap and above, so I'm literally excluding
KevinMm-hmm.
Ian McMillanmicrocaps from my life. But yeah, good for them. Nice run versus mega caps too, or they were
DavidAll
Kevina relevant 200-day, so not too bad
DavidYeah, it's not bad. And all this happening with more bears than bulls AAII Survey
Ian McMillanDid it go? I saw where Oh, you know, the stats peoples and they ta- they were someone that had talked about s- AA, AAII most bears and stocks at all-time highs
DavidI suppose
Ian McMillanBut it, did we get more bearish over the last week?
DavidWe did
Ian McMillanSo it stayed bearish and even increased
DavidRight
Kevinright? Like, what was it? Like 38, 39% to low to mid-40s or mid-40s-ish
Ian McMillanMid-40s. 40, 45% of y'all are bearish? Whoo. I'm not saying that it's wide open pastures, but
KevinWhat does neutral mean? Like, if you're answering neutral,
Ian McMillanYour hour
KevinJust
Ian McMillanHave an opinion
DavidYes. That's funny. How about just not answer the survey? Why answer neutral?
KevinYeah. Like how are you positioned if you're neutral, I guess? Just net e- like long, short, net even, like at neutral where you were just going nowhere
DavidYeah, 'cause the question is what, you know, what direction you feel the stock market will be in the next six months?
Ian McMillanOkay, so flat.
DavidSo,
Ian McMillansay neutral
Davidyeah I think it's fair Six months. Man,
Ian McMillanSo it's the end of the year at Christmas
DavidYeah, it takes us into November. That's wild
KevinI know it'll be Monday let alone six months
DavidYeah, right
Ian McMillanI saw a stat where I think it was like May through October in midterm election years, usually pretty crappy
DavidPretty crappy.
Ian McMillanYeah. Like there's only like one winner for for that, what is that? Like six-month period, five-month period, but
DavidWell, you know what's weird is there's also the stats out there about The second year in the second term of a president That is bullish
Ian McMillanAnd presidential number divisible by five
DavidYeah, probably something, yes. Yeah, like some type of, yeah
Ian McMillanLike they do with baseball stats.
KevinIn the eighth inning when the sun is out
DavidThat's right
Ian McMillanFirst, player wearing number seven to hit a home run in the eighth inning
DavidIt's
KevinIn his 15th professional game
Ian McMillanDo you guys see someone hit a grand slam on the sixth pitch of a game the other night?
DavidOh, man
Ian McMillanYes, and someone gave the s- someone gave the, like,
Kevinhit it. I don't remember who they
Ian McMillanprobabilities for it and it was pretty insane
DavidBut yeah, Arnau- Arnaldo is a Diamondbacks
Ian McMillanYes, it was Diamondbacks
KevinCan't remember who was pitching now though.
DavidSo that means,
KevinOh, Robbie Ray, I think
Davidsix pitches, that means guys had to had hits and they went station to station?
Ian McMillanOr they, or it balked or like hit batters. I'm not sure
DavidOr you get a walk, that's four pitches. Hit. Nope, that doesn't work. You gotta have... It can't be a walk. It's gotta be hit batter or hit, hit,
Ian McMillanCould be like an infield single or something.
DavidYeah
Ian McMillanThey just didn't, like, advance Depends on how it played out. You never know
DavidVery likely for that. I would've been bearish on that happening
Ian McMillanThen you would've lost your bet on Kalshi on Poly Market
DavidFor sure
KevinIsn't that the thing, like with that survey, right? So how do you feel the stock market will be in the next six months? Just because you feel like you're bearish about that, like it doesn't mean you're doing anything about it. How, like what percentage those members that get that survey are like act- actually actively managing-
DavidWell, and I think that's the hard part about surveys is people s- how often in life do you hear people say things different than what they're doing?
Ian McMillanOr yeah, if you know that like you're rebalancing quarterly and it doesn't matter, then like who gives a shit?
KevinRight? Like you could think it's bearish, oh, look, over the next six months doesn't mean
Ian McMillanYeah, but you literally, like your, your investment process says you can't do anything. You just need to stick with your, like, diversified buy and hold portfolio
DavidYeah, no, I, I think that's a great point. Surveys versus what you say versus what you do, two different things
Kevin'Cause like if you actually asked like where do you or how do you think you'll be positioned like at the end of the next six months or something in six months, something like that, like I wonder
Ian McMillanIf you're, if you're... Okay, so if you're a buy and hold advisor and someone asks you how you're positioned, what do you say to that question?
KevinYeah,
Ian McMillanI guess neutral. Is that where like the neutral answer comes from?
DavidYeah But I'm guessing, I don't know. That's a great Yeah, I, I, I think there's a fair point being made that what you say versus what you do are completely two different things
Ian McMillanAnd you think humans would do that?
DavidOh, yeah.
Ian McMillanYou think that humans would talk out of both sides of their mouth
DavidOh, yeah.
KevinIt's like that emotional hedge where I
Davidemotional heads.
Kevinmy team to win, but
Ian McMillanI would tell my clients, be like, "Well, I've answered the AAII sur- survey correctly for 14 weeks. I know, I know you're down 25%, but I have, I have been answering the survey bearish." I just can't do anything about it
DavidI like what you were saying, Kevin, too. Sports fans do this all the time
KevinIf I'm playing DraftKings, right? I'm taking some of the opposing players 'cause at least if they have a good game, we lose. You know, maybe I'll make a little money off of it. It's
Ian McMillanYeah
DavidSome of my closest Packer fans are awesome at this. Like bet, bet against your team. If your team
Ian McMillanAnd
DavidIf my
Ian McMillanYeah.
DavidI made money
Ian McMillanIf you could cash out Caleb Williams four plus touchdowns, even if it was against the, the Packers, it's kind of a moot, kind of a moot afternoon
DavidYeah even just like a small bet on whether he'll have his fingernails painted
KevinThe odds on that have to be you're not gonna make much money, I think, going the long side of that
DavidYeah, it's true
KevinAnd
Ian McMillanSee, that's what's
Kevinsurvey, like the historical averages too being positive is what? 37 and a half, but then neutral and bearish are pretty much exactly 31%. Like it's almost a third, a third, a third, which is feel like perfect
Ian McMillanIsn't that crazy considering we spend like, only like once every eight years we get a bear market?
KevinMm-hmm.
DavidExcept for, except for since 2018, it's been a little bit more. But your point, your point is valid And then you got hedge funds with huge short exposure right now
Ian McMillanYeah, but do you think that that's, like the hedge fund world, like long, short?
DavidBy
Ian McMillanYeah
Kevinessentially they're so long too, they're just offsetting it to record degrees. Like, yeah, that's kind of where my head went to seeing that right away
Davidthey It could be bigly long semis and trying to that exposure. That could be a thing
Ian McMillanYeah, with like the, like shorting the crappiest semiconductor stocks
DavidYeah. Which I'm not saying it's crappiest. What is that, Nvidia? Do you, are you long semiconductors and
Ian McMillanYeah, it wouldn't even have to be crappy, just like you're shorting what's ever underperforming
DavidRight I mean, 13%, 13% short index and ETF hedging by hedge fund. But by definition, that's what hedge funds do
KevinRight. Like without getting the overall net exposure I feel like it, it's like with all the 13F filings going around, all the talks about that, like how useful really is it to see those? If you're trying to gauge what someone's portfolio looks like at this point in time, I
Ian McMillanIt's not. It's like a random snapshot.
KevinYeah
Ian McMillanI think, like, you can s- I think some of it's probably valuable. Like, you see guys, like, build positions and things. I think it's more interesting in retrospect
KevinMm-hmm.
Ian McMillanLike I was looking, I think I told Dave this a few weeks ago. I was just, or I think it was a couple, like last week. I was just curious and like David Tepper's been buying EWI for like six or nine months. So that's cool in retrospect, but like if I saw that in the moment Would I have been like, "Oh yeah, I should buy South Korea," versus any of his other Trades? I don't know. I don't know
DavidWell, and this goes back to You know, the, the critique of analysis, the study of price, the study of supply and demand is, "Oh, you're just looking at the current price." Well, okay. Name any other study or field where somehow you know the future every- everything else is backward-looking. 13 Fs, that's what? What are we looking? Like, that's possibly a month and a half ago Someone's positioning? GDP, earnings, these are all backward-looking. Price is the only thing that's forward-looking, future discounting mechanism I don't know.
KevinAnd if you project it, then you're getting into economics and like how often economists are right on
Ian McMillanI just like the trends. I like the trends
DavidYou know how we have weather apps? Why don't we have economist apps?
KevinWell, there's probably some. There's gotta be
Davidcrazy.
Ian McMillanit do?
KevinNo.
DavidBe, be, be, be wrong 50% of the time
KevinIf all else equals, well, nothing ever equals. That literally never
DavidCrazy. Yeah, and everything's gotta be taken in context, but I do know that economic law is the only thing that matters. Price, supply and demand
KevinYeah, they nailed it with that one
DavidEverything else, just opinions and no one knows anything. No one knows. Maybe you guys do. I don't
KevinIf I did, I wouldn't tell you
DavidThanks a lot, Kevin
KevinI also wouldn't be here. I'd be very rich
Davidwhere would you be?
Ian McMillanWow, you wouldn't hang out with us if you were rich?
Davidcome on. man.
KevinNot five days a week
Ian McMillanOkay, fair enough. Fair enough
DavidHow many days do we get? Kevin, Kevin's independently wealthy
Ian McMillanIndependently wealthy. He's home from Aruba
DavidYeah, what do we get?
KevinTwo days a quarter. It seems fair
DavidOoh.
Ian McMillanTwo days a quarter, that's what we've been diminished to
KevinI probably wouldn't see anybody outside of like my wife and kids probably more than two days a quarter. Just people in general
DavidYou get 2.2% of your time. I like that. These-- Are these eight-hour days or do we get 24 hours? Is it like a 48
Ian McMillanhe just
Davidjust
Ian McMillanswing by the office and say hi
Kevinstill gotta sleep so that I wouldn't go 24, but Give you a 10 to 12, I guess
Ian McMillanHe'll swing by the office. He'll park out front. He won't be able to park his Lamborghini in that gravel parking lot
KevinWell, first of all, it'd be a Ferrari. If I drove a Lamborghini that'd
Ian McMillanThat's true. That's true. It would have to be a Ferrari
DavidKevin's Ferrari.
KevinMm-hmm
DavidI like it. That's funny. Oh, man. on our agenda today, I've got shared the top performing stocks in the NASZY this year I guess we don't get to really be surprised what's on here
Ian McMillanYeah. Pretty pretty straightforward
KevinBut I think like those cyber names are notable. Like, and Ian was talking about that even before we kind of went through, updated tech workbook yesterday, like how good a lot of those cybersecurity names look. Which kind of explains, I guess, looking back in retrospect why like software was kinda looking a little bit more interesting there for a while. That kinda makes sense now
DavidYeah, just a ton of semiconductors and memory Google Costco
KevinYeah, I think like CSX is interesting. Cause they've looked pretty good, and even UNP
Ian McMillanIf you told me Old Dominion was up 32% year to date, I would call you a liar
KevinYeah, that's not even close to the best looking trucking name there right now
Ian McMillanWhat do you think is the best, that S- S-A-I-A?
KevinNo. I'm not even gonna... I'd have to go back and look.
Ian McMillanNatural, well that's
Kevinprobably like three to four I think in industrials that looked a little bit better Can't remember the ticker for Knight Swift off the top of my head. KNX? too bad Yeah.
DavidRXO trucking?
KevinNo. Well, that was,
Ian McMillanXPF
Kevinthat industry kind of, I guess. That was like the freight brokerage software, I think.
DavidXPO.
Kevinlike,
DavidXPO's trucking.
Kevinyeah
DavidThat's the best year to date
KevinJB Hunt looks good. Kinda watching Schneider to see if that's gonna start participating
DavidYou weren't far off with SAI or SEO, SIO they're up 37 Percent. So that's interesting, right? Transport's doing pretty f- pretty okay it's not like that y- that's where you're gonna get your alpha, but the fact that they're participating
Ian McMillanYep
Kevinjust
DavidFedEx. FedEx on an absolute basis, and we were close to all-time highs there, holding the highs from the last five years near three seventeen We're gonna talk about economically sensitive transportation. FedEx looking good UPS on the other hand, trash
KevinYuck
Ian McMillanYou know what else looks like trash? Credit cards
DavidReally? Yeah.
Ian McMillanI wouldn't lie to you about that
DavidYeah, MasterCard, Visa. Did American Express lose Cause that was on a huge base breakout
KevinIt was kind of like the last one standing there for a while, but yeah
Ian McMillanYeah, no
Kevinfell to
DavidTransportation participating. That's good
KevinMm-hmm.
DavidBut yeah, you look, you look at this top performing out of the Nasdaq, it's all storage, memory, Semis
KevinWe're concentrating
DavidPretty wild. But yeah, we still have aerospace space
KevinI would say pretty much more of the space side of that, right? Like things that would be in UFO, rocket, R-O-K-T
Ian McMillanPlanet Labs
KevinI know. Intuitive Machines, really good No. Space and AI
DavidBased on AI
Kevinin space, it's a big winner
DavidWell, and tech overall, new all-timers Hughes overall trying to go to new all-time highs today. I don't know, man. It's really hard to be bearish when that's happening. And then you look at-- You guys were talking about Japanese banks, but Japanese equities continue to climb out of a thirty-five-year base We gotta think about treasuries and rates. We gotta we apparently have a new Fed,
Ian McMillanAll right We do have a new fetch air officially
DavidThat's what I heard That's what my aunt,
Ian McMillanWorse?
Davidthat's what my aunt was telling me What do you
KevinIt's pretty interesting where TLT reacted, kind of those lows from, would that be like fall of '23? Around like 82.50 on TLT Pretty interesting
Davidto hold there me. If that fails, we're hiking rates later this year. Bond market's gonna force what's his name? Would you say Warsh?
Ian McMillanIsn't that his name? Isn't, well, that's who they said. Kevin Warsh
DavidWash my hands of these
Ian McMillanWashington
DavidWashington, DC
Ian McMillanWarsh i-- well, nope. I'll keep that offline
KevinNice TLT. Kinda low. It's kind of an important relative level to AGG. Kinda earlier, what would that have been? Kinda middle part of the month, week or so ago. Kinda testing that from the underside now, but not a good look
DavidWhen even TLT like, or AGG o-overall,
KevinAll right. Yes
Davidfact that they, you know, you get this corrective move, know, se- what was it, 7, 8% in S&P. Bonds did nothing to offset that. how many times have we said in the last 300 episodes that the 60/40 portfolio is dead and we're in a new rising rate environment for the next, you know, for all of your kids' lifetime, or not their whole lifetime, but probably gonna be in their 30s and 40s until we see a downtrend in rates
KevinMm-hmm. Actually timing-wise might work out good for him. Might start getting close to retirement. Hey, are picking back up again
DavidYeah I don't know, man. Base metals? were you gonna
Kevinooh, I just c- 60/40, I guess, depending on how you look at it, you could still be fine. Just comes down to the composition of the 40.
DavidYeah, talk to us about that. What, what are you seeing in fixed income?
KevinThere's plenty of like floating rate areas that you could be in. Like a lot of your different short duration stuff, and even on the higher yield side of that it's doing just fine. It's just- obviously, right? With Sensitivity to interest rates, you just either got to be floating rate, short duration. It's still risk on in those areas, which is good to see. You know, like convertibles kind of fixed themselves right away earlier this week, so that's good to see too
DavidSo you're saying it's risk on in land?
KevinYeah. As long as you're duration, really Triple B CLOs hanging in there. It's good to see. High yield floating rate, like FLRT, that's good. Chinese bonds Chinese equity's not doing great, right? But Chinese bonds still holding up really well
DavidUsing
KevinThere's definitely, you know, not to be confused with Cinnabon
DavidMm-hmm. delicious
Kevinstill things out there
DavidGot the dollar range bound of near 100 again. You wonder what-- if we break 100 to the upside, what that looks like for the overall market
KevinYeah
DavidAnything else you guys wanna cover? I know pretty soon here we're gonna have to... Ian's gotta run
Ian McMillanRun, run
DavidI think I could highlight the of this podcast at this point, the Adaptive Select ETF listed on the New York Stock Exchange under ticker ADPV, which helps investors access two of the most prevalent factors in markets, momentum and relative strength. Using proprietary identification methods, the Adaptive Select ETF attempts to own the strongest 25 large cap stocks when the market is in an uptrend. And since not all market environments are the same, Adaptive Select seeks to prevent extended declines by moving short-term Treasury bills and cash during long-term market downtrends. Investors can find out more, including how to invest in ADPV, by visiting adpvETF.com calling 1-833-880-5200. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. is distributed by Quasar Distributors LLC. Anything else you guys wanna touch base on for our listeners? Before we get out
Ian McMillanNothing from my end
KevinSo be nice to get a new all-time closing high on S&P for the holiday weekend. Nice three-day weekend with a new high. That would be pretty nice
DavidYeah, Memorial Day
KevinWell, we gotta buy this up
DavidNot to be confused with Veterans Day, also important, but this is where we remember all those who gave their life No greater love is this than to give one's life for one's friends, and here we live in freedom because what others gave. hope everyone listening, and you guys too, have a great three-day weekend, and take some time to think about those who gave the ultimate sacrifice so we get to do what we do. How cool is it to be in markets every single day for our clients? It's a privilege, and I love we could do episode 300 together, guys. Thanks for both jumping on here
Ian McMillanHave a great weekend everyone