Episode 301: IPOs and I Don't Knows

 In this week's episode, Ian and Kevin discuss the SpaceX IPO and treatment from major indices and the tough week for cryptocurrencies and commodities. They also discuss the lackluster market breadth and the continued thin market and the strong move from the U.S. Dollar.  

Transcript

Ian McMillan 0:27

Welcome back to the Weekly Trend podcast. Today is June 5th, 2026. S&P sitting at seventy-four seventy-five. My name is Ian McMillan, today joined by Kevin Firari Anything that you would like to get us started with? Anything that you're just dying to get off your chest, Kevin?

Kevin 0:53

It seems to have been a business as usual week for the most part with what we've been seeing here as of late.

Ian McMillan 1:00

Yeah

Kevin 1:01

I don't know, just still seems to be pretty thin for the most part, at least, you know, like in terms on, on a relative basis, right? I mean, as far as things outperforming the market as a whole. Still kinda seems to be the semi show for the most part or like some of those things that fit into like the AI theme, if you wanna really lump them in there.

Ian McMillan 1:23

For sure. Still, still techy out there. Semis getting hit today

Kevin 1:31

So today is kind of the, the outlier, right? Of course, we gotta start selling all this stuff on a Friday, and at least here it's raining outside, so I mean, it... Not a-

Ian McMillan 1:42

That's a

Kevin 1:42

I know. Not a great end of the week. Yeah. They really kick you when you're down

Ian McMillan 1:47

Anything else working? Besides tech and energy are the only two sectors above a relative 200-day, correct?

Kevin 1:58

Is XLE still? Let's find out

Ian McMillan 2:02

Thought it was

Kevin 2:03

XLE is... Oops Did a 200 week, not a 200 day. That's a big difference Yeah, still above. Actually came down and, I mean, didn't quite test it, but pretty close on the 29th

Ian McMillan 2:16

Pretty harsh move in XLK relative chart But also pretty strong on the upside. So you kind of

Kevin 2:23

Right

Ian McMillan 2:24

what you get There's

Kevin 2:26

Yeah

Ian McMillan 2:26

of At least not enough to move markets, I guess. Industrials I could go through industrials and find you some decent charts. Are th- is that helping XLI. Do I wanna go buy industrials and own it? No, I don't. Looks good. On an absolute basis Not terrible

Kevin 2:48

I mean, if we could break like 178 again or something like that up there, kind of get out to all-time highs, I mean, that would be nice. But it really just kinda seems like it could keep chopping around. At least for this week, kind of more your value stuff is what's positive on the week. Healthcare leading the way around 3.25%, energy around two, financials a little under two, industrials around one. So it, it's kind of one of those weeks where everything else is maybe Trying to get in the action a little bit. But I don't know. I mean, even within industrials, right? Like when the individual charts and things that are performing, it's still on like the aerospace side of some of that.

Ian McMillan 3:31

Yep

Kevin 3:32

Like it's... It like still fits the main theme we've been talking about, but it's like inputs that fit that theme

Ian McMillan 3:38

of engineering, construction Building materials type stuff.

Kevin 3:46

Yeah

Ian McMillan 3:46

Caterpillar looks good.

Kevin 3:48

It does, which is good

Ian McMillan 3:50

Other than that Healthcare's

Kevin 3:52

Yeah, and I think...

Ian McMillan 3:53

Materials pretty blah. Steel looks okay

Kevin 3:57

And really a lot of those more like industrial metals. Yeah, like steel, aluminum, those have been doing good. I mean, copper hit today, but over the past couple weeks, months, I mean, copper's been doing pretty well. But yeah, commodities in general pretty much across the board for the most part. I mean, grains look horrible. Really, they have for probably the last couple weeks

Ian McMillan 4:16

Silver has made

Kevin 4:16

now.

Ian McMillan 4:17

200-day. probably the healthiest thing you could expect after those moves, go sideways for A while. months Rice, I guess, all na

Kevin 4:28

I'd say in the grains it's really... Well, it's the canola too has held up a little bit better. I mean, it hasn't been good the last couple days. But like yeah, corn's sold off pretty hard. Soybeans, oats, wheat, I mean, really across the board for the most part grain's getting hit. I mean, your cattle are holding up maybe a little bit better Even like the softs, like cotton.

Ian McMillan 4:48

Were strong earlier in the week

Kevin 4:50

I were, but not, not so much anymore Coffee continuing lower Like lumber is kind of an interesting look. I mean, maybe a little early there, but if you could break like 615, something like that that's actually pretty...

Ian McMillan 5:07

GCC

Kevin 5:08

a pretty decent range there

Ian McMillan 5:09

Kind of a failed move on GCC if you wanna use that as your commodity proxy. I don't know, dollar pr- probably strong dollar not helping. We're in this, what is currently A strong dollar is bad for stocks. Now, are we in a strong... Like we're in an uptrend

Kevin 5:30

No, it's

Ian McMillan 5:31

But every time this dollar starts going up, people get spooked. Dollar having a big day

Kevin 5:37

Yeah. Yeah, it's once we get back in that 100 to 100 and a half range,

Ian McMillan 5:42

If we get over, yeah,

Kevin 5:42

like that

Ian McMillan 5:42

get above that, if we get back into this range that we were in from 2022 to 2025, April, early April, May 2025 I don't know. The market s- the market's reaction is clearly would not be risk on No one likes a stronger dollar

Kevin 6:03

Doesn't seem to be

Ian McMillan 6:04

You can't have the dollar worth more, then our stocks would need less dollars. They'd be worth less dollars. Every dollar would be worth more Tough go of it in crypto. Mm.

Kevin 6:16

Bitcoin, well really since Monday back down below like 73,500. Now it's below...

Ian McMillan 6:24

Then

Kevin 6:25

Now it's right around 60 today, right? Yeah. So you'd hope

Ian McMillan 6:29

would be a lows.

Kevin 6:29

to-

Ian McMillan 6:30

technically, I guess we were back here in February, Clo-- this would be closing if we were to close here. Lowest daily close since October 2024 So, hmm. Yeah, entire

Kevin 6:44

Really it's, it's across the board. Yeah. Ethereum getting hit

Ian McMillan 6:48

Well, did they hit our, did they hit Tron? TRX U- Is that TRX USD?

Kevin 6:53

Yep.

Ian McMillan 6:53

That.

Kevin 6:53

towards it tomorrow, Dave. I know Dave was talking about Zcash Ren

Ian McMillan 6:58

Yes, they found out that that was Done. Hacked it

Kevin 7:02

And kinda, I guess a little bit today they kinda bought it back up a little bit, you know, up above like 300, which I guess is roughly what you'd like to see somewhere between like 285, 300 you'd like to see that hold. Yeah, things not looking good in the crypto space, not that they were looking

Ian McMillan 7:18

not pan out. I'm shocked Well, it's the crypto era, right? So we've... Well, NFTs was a pretty quick flash in the

Kevin 7:31

pretty, short lived

Ian McMillan 7:32

was a ma- that was like an eight- 18-month thing, like the hype

Kevin 7:36

Yeah, maybe a bit.

Ian McMillan 7:38

Yeah, maybe 12 months And obliterated all the meme coins Even the more legit cryptos Like what's a ripple look like? Well, terrible. It looks terrible I don't know, I just kind of wonder if that Sarah is done

Kevin 7:53

Per se, I guess.

Ian McMillan 7:54

Probably always be an asset class Maybe me being so pessimistic. I'm not pessimistic. I- I guess I was never like a crypto maxi to begin with. We definitely Off and on. To me, it's

Kevin 8:08

Right

Ian McMillan 8:08

it's just another asset. It could be, right, we always joke around. It could be, know, if you had a Basket full of poodles

Kevin 8:17

So buy a bucket of baseballs if there was a market for it that had liquidity and enough price history

Ian McMillan 8:23

I would, I'd do that,

Kevin 8:25

I mean, really for the most part, don't care what it is, as long as it's going up and to the right for the most part and outperforming You know, main indices or something else we could own

Ian McMillan 8:35

So yeah, some type of benchmark. Obviously

Kevin 8:37

So it's trending, uptrend in relative strength. Who really cares as long as you can access it?

Ian McMillan 8:43

And Bitcoin's been Been in a downtrend since, what is this? October. So we're going in over half a year, months Lost your rate of trend In November if you go back to the December 2022 lows Yeah

Kevin 9:02

Yeah, I mean, you lose 50,000 on Bitcoin,

Ian McMillan 9:05

Wasn't there

Kevin 9:05

what? Your-

Ian McMillan 9:06

that ju- what, there was someone that just came out, you are gonna start being able to use crypto assets towards loans, like collateral towards mortgages and stuff

Kevin 9:22

Hmm. Yeah, I do remember that now. I remember

Ian McMillan 9:25

I don't know if

Kevin 9:25

That was,

Ian McMillan 9:26

a state

Kevin 9:28

but

Ian McMillan 9:28

it, but

Kevin 9:30

I can't remember off the top of my head. But yeah, I remember that coming out I actually, I think I brought this up to Dave. It might've been while you were on vacation. Was it April? I think there was, you know, one or a few of like the short Bitcoin ETFs that ended up getting delisted somewhere in April. And I was kinda like, you know, and then it comes up, tests the 200-day, rolls back over. It's just like the timing on some of that. It's just interesting how that works out I mean, not that there's not still vehicles for that, you know what I mean? Interesting where some of those funds finally seem to throw in the towel is literally at the-- seems to be at the worst time. But it is.

Ian McMillan 10:15

So our da- is that

Kevin 10:16

Yeah, you lose

Ian McMillan 10:17

Yeah

Kevin 10:18

Still above the Bondi level

Ian McMillan 10:20

level Barely. Yeah, we have 51

Kevin 10:24

Yeah, still not doing much on a relative basis

Ian McMillan 10:27

No,

Kevin 10:27

Which

Ian McMillan 10:28

Utter relative Except for on down days, It outperforms

Kevin 10:33

Yeah, Dave threw that one out there and what it... That's a pretty, that's a pretty crazy long term relative chart there. I mean, you're You're testing lows now that we've seen, you know, really in the '80s and then all the way back to, like, the early 1900s So let's It's crazy. I mean, can-- Do we actually get a new... Let me see here. Yeah, so like if you're looking at, you know, put that on a monthly timeframe to try to be able to, to look at that. We did actually get a new intra-month, all-time relative low Which the last one was back in... The heck is this? 1903.

Ian McMillan 11:19

Yeah.

Kevin 11:19

It's pretty...

Ian McMillan 11:21

feel like a caveat. The S&P didn't come out till 1950,

Kevin 11:24

Oh, right.

Ian McMillan 11:24

so...

Kevin 11:25

So I'm in there

Ian McMillan 11:26

I know that they've I guess,

Kevin 11:29

the math

Ian McMillan 11:29

created some type of hypothetical

Kevin 11:34

how you're historically applying the rules back, right, to your

Ian McMillan 11:38

So

Kevin 11:38

constituent base

Ian McMillan 11:39

keeping like the pre-1988 rules, like where you had to be in industrials and utilities, like X amount?

Kevin 11:45

I don't know. I don't know. It's a good question

Ian McMillan 11:48

Speaking, speaking of the S&P and Dow I feel like this would be an opportune time to segue to the fact that maybe there's still some sanity left in markets. They will not be including the SpaceX IPO. They're not cha... I think Nasdaq is cha- is still changing its rules to include it I didn't understand the Dow either because isn't the Dow based on price? Which I'm not sure how Like why isn't Lam Research in the Dow? I guess they still pick. They still get to pick, and then it's weighted based on price

Kevin 12:28

Just wait on price and ask what's still, I guess, gonna make sense

Ian McMillan 12:32

has gotta be the dumbest thing I've ever heard But whatever

Kevin 12:36

much doing it for nostalgia's sake at this point, right?

Ian McMillan 12:39

Yeah, it kind of is. Kinda just keeping it around

Kevin 12:43

I was actually-- It's funny you bring that up. I was in the education meeting I had last night. I can't remember how this even came up. Oh, I think, she was talking about, you know, like back in when she was in school, and they were talking about charting things with like graph paper and stuff like that, and Dow ended up coming up, you know, talking about how like the price weighting made sense back then. Like if you're just working off the newspaper, you get the most recent closing prices, tally 'em up, and you're good to go. So it was funny that that

Ian McMillan 13:13

Yeah,

Kevin 13:13

up last night

Ian McMillan 13:14

nothing like IPO'd at $150 back then like it does now

Kevin 13:20

Mm-hmm. Yeah, I don't know. Well,

Ian McMillan 13:22

I,

Kevin 13:22

and

Ian McMillan 13:22

I don't even know when like the split f- pre s- people invented splits at some point. I don't know Could probably Google it. I'm not gonna do that in the moment. I assume pre-split too, looking at a newspaper Probably a fair general thumb that like if one stock is $8 and one is five, that the that's worth eight is like better If that makes sense? I could, I could see people Kind of falling back on that mindset

Kevin 13:56

And there's something to that 'cause actually I'll see-- Which I don't know if you've ever noticed this, but I've seen that in like the, in our education meetings when you do a little Coke versus Pepsi thing,

Ian McMillan 14:08

Yeah

Kevin 14:09

People kind of jump to the, the one that has the highest ending share value. It's like there's no concept of scale there really, right? Like it's

Ian McMillan 14:21

Or like where

Kevin 14:21

really the end. Right. Yeah. So I can see that being a thing. And I think too it probably made more sense pre like fractional share era, right? If you want more... Which even then, I guess, right, you're only dealing with one share does really add up and at the end of the day,. I don't know. But do they think it's easier for retail to access it more at a lower share price, for more people? I guess I don't know

Ian McMillan 14:49

I wonder if that'll be... I wonder how the fractional share thing also plays in with... We're clearly we've been in this, but we're clearly in a massive buyback era, Cause it's a way to make CEOs look good. You can... A great way to make your price per share go up is to just simply remove shares from the marketplace

Kevin 15:11

It's basically an accounting tactic at this point, right? For the most part

Ian McMillan 15:16

stays the same Top line revenue, bottom line revenue. Your company's valued at the same, but you remove shares from the secondary market, your stock price goes up And you didn't do anything exceptional as a CEO

Kevin 15:33

Those per share metrics, right? Obviously less shares of those look better Yeah I finally looked it up 'cause I was curious. Now take this with a grain of salt 'cause it always defaults with Google amount of their AI response. But supposedly first stock split, Standard Oil, 1926

Ian McMillan 15:48

Okay. God, how do you even do that without computers? Do you just show

Kevin 15:53

Okay

Ian McMillan 15:53

and redeem your

Kevin 15:56

I have no idea

Ian McMillan 15:58

for I guess you'd be getting more... I'm assuming it was a regular split. I don't think... You said it was Standard Oil?

Kevin 16:06

Yeah

Ian McMillan 16:07

Yeah, I doubt Standard Oil is reverse splitting.

Kevin 16:10

Mm-mm. You wouldn't think so. It'd be pretty

Ian McMillan 16:13

like the

Kevin 16:13

tough.

Ian McMillan 16:13

company in the world.

Kevin 16:15

Yeah.

Ian McMillan 16:16

So yeah, do you just show up and you're like, "Hey, I'm a shareholder. I need more pieces of paper now. I need to turn my old pieces of paper in and get some new ones"?

Kevin 16:26

Yeah, that'd be interesting to figure out

Ian McMillan 16:28

just keep what you have and then they issue you more I don't know. They just do it. It just shows up in my account now. And Schwab just does it for me

Kevin 16:38

Right

Ian McMillan 16:39

I mean, there probably were like how many publicly traded companies were there in 1907? 30?

Kevin 16:45

Not as many, but

Ian McMillan 16:46

7

Kevin 16:47

Yeah, just administration in general back then, right? So much more of a process. Well, not to say that's not still a process now, but it's a heck of a lot easier than it had to be back then

Ian McMillan 16:59

Yeah, everything's just so instantaneous

Kevin 17:01

Like now you can take pictures and instantaneously put them out on the line. From The Internship, if you haven't seen that movie. It's all right

Ian McMillan 17:09

Is that, that's where they gotta work at Google?

Kevin 17:11

Yeah.

Ian McMillan 17:12

Yeah. It's

Kevin 17:14

Vaughn and Owen Wilson, right? Can't believe I'm blanking on it

Ian McMillan 17:17

And Ro- and does Robert De Niro also

Kevin 17:20

Well, that was another movie. I didn't see that one. Right. That, isn't that the one where he's with his daughter? Interns at his daughter's company or something like that?

Ian McMillan 17:29

yes

Kevin 17:30

But I think that's a similar title

Ian McMillan 17:32

I think that's like The Intern and then one is The

Kevin 17:36

The internship, I think, is the one with Google and Vince Vaughn on Wilson For sure. But yeah, and I know with, with the whole SpaceX IPO stuff, weren't there custodians too, like lowering

Ian McMillan 17:49

Yeah, so

Kevin 17:50

AUM requirements?

Ian McMillan 17:51

they're coming out and saying that the SpaceX IPO is oversubscribed, I find that comically amusing if they're telling people with $2,000 in a brokerage account they're dropping that minimum from 500,000 to 2,000 Doesn't sound

Kevin 18:10

It's not even in the same ballpark

Ian McMillan 18:12

That's I just, someone's lying. I have a very strong guess on which one is the lie

Kevin 18:20

I wish, I really should have saved this. I, for the life of me, cannot remember who put it out on X, but it was like, you might have seen this. Maybe you'll remember it better than I can. But it was looking at like recent IPOs and like the one-year

Ian McMillan 18:38

Drawdown

Kevin 18:38

performance drawdown, yeah. And I cannot remember who put that out, but it was... Oh, here we go So it looks like Keith Lerner is the one who originally put it out. So looked at 30 major IPOs, one year max drawdown. So it has things on here like Facebook, Twitter, Baba, Shopify, Snap. Spotify's on here Year one max drawdown average is 55%. And pretty much one year later, if I'm reading this right Percent positive, I'm assuming that means the percentage of IPOs out of that 30, like 43% of those were higher. So what is that?

Ian McMillan 19:23

I remember meta went straight down. Now, I also think that there's some institutional gaming that goes on And just 'cause you didn't get an allo- you can force the stock lower, and So I don't know., I'm glad that they're not-- I'm glad that the S&P at least seems to be doing the right thing. I'm sure that they got a lot of... I'm sure they saw all of the hate that was coming I said a f- I had a few choice words on it. It wasn't bad. But Kate said she s- that one of my tweets, which it popped up on her Instagram feed. Someone used

Kevin 20:01

Really? That's cool

Ian McMillan 20:02

think it was a, I'm not kidding you, think it was, like, a leftist economic account. Kinda rolled my eyes at that. Can't be letting these commies use my tweets. But we do agree. We do agree. I think it would've been Disgusting. Now, the other thing is... Right, so there's, there's gonna be some index separation. That's clearly... That's one of the big theories that's been thrown out. So NASDAQ's gonna get SpaceX and S&P is not. That clearly becomes the whole Well, it'll be totally different 'cause Apple, Microsoft, all that, right? Both indices held all that stuff. The Nasdaq just held more. But there's going... Based on how this thing does, cause what's the initial weighting that it's coming in at I feel like they said What is it? I wanna say it's something ridiculous, but I don't... I do believe it's... Is it immediately going to be the top weighted stock Maybe not. Here it is No, it was gonna come in at 5.3 The S&P, it was gonna come in at 2.5

Kevin 21:14

So NASDAQ is 5.3. Where does that put it? Pretty close to Microsoft then, right?

Ian McMillan 21:19

It'll be top 10, right?

Kevin 21:21

Oh yeah. Using QQQ's, it would actually be third highest weighted.

Ian McMillan 21:25

Okay.

Kevin 21:26

NVIDIA's at close to eight and a half. Apple's seven and a quarter, and Microsoft's right at five

Ian McMillan 21:32

so you just right, immediately right off the bat, third of the index, or not third, but third

Kevin 21:37

Third pla-

Ian McMillan 21:38

stock

Kevin 21:39

Hmm. Have you ever participated in an IPO?

Ian McMillan 21:42

No. Very first firm I worked at got the Facebook IPO, so that was pretty interesting

Kevin 21:50

Almost.

Ian McMillan 21:50

on the job. Well, it

Kevin 21:51

That's it

Ian McMillan 21:52

I interned there. It was exactly your situation. I interned there, and then they offered me full-time job when I graduated. But yeah, that Was the Facebook IPO. Man, that was such a big thing. That was, like, the first big when you're like young and like super cool, like stuff in the market and you-

Kevin 22:14

And here, that was a Facebook was one of

Ian McMillan 22:16

I was 22 right now and I think the SpaceX IPO was like A super big deal. I guess it is a big deal, but

Kevin 22:23

All right.

Ian McMillan 22:24

there is

Kevin 22:25

Got it

Ian McMillan 22:25

much talk about the Facebook thing, man. Golly

Kevin 22:29

Yeah, that's the thing, right? Like process-wise, how we operate, I mean, until you have price history to go off of, which obviously takes time, I mean it- So pretty much hands off for a while Let's see. Facebook, one week is down 17%, three months 45, with a max one year draw down of 54% So not a great first year for that IPO Yeah, and that's coming up quick, isn't it? Isn't that a couple weeks?

Ian McMillan 22:57

This IPFE

Kevin 22:59

As I don't know why the 19th sticks in my head or somewhere like in two weeks

Ian McMillan 23:05

Do we have any ETFs? Are, are we gonna have two and three are we gonna have like bull and bear 2X ETFs ready to go?

Kevin 23:14

You would think so, right? Actually, it's next week. Next week Friday

Ian McMillan 23:18

Next Friday

Kevin 23:20

Ooh-wee

Ian McMillan 23:21

So we can talk about that on the pod sPCX, 135 dol- can you imagine telling someone in the 80s Oh yeah, they're gonna s- they're gonna IPO"? You gotta, you're gonna have to have 135 bucks to buy one share 135 bucks

Kevin 23:39

Crazy. Well, and then the, was that this week with, um- SPCE, everybody on Reddit was buying that thinking, oh, the SpaceX, which didn't even IPO yet, obviously. So I mean that Ran out. Maybe it was Uh, might have been, it was kinda later, later May, so end of last month Thing ran up like 200% until everybody real- they're not buying what they think they're buying. Didn't that happen in COVID too? Wasn't there

Ian McMillan 24:09

So that's the equivalent, $135 in 1985 would be the equivalent of $418 today Imagine if someone told you I, someone's gonna IPO at 400 bucks

Kevin 24:22

Now

Ian McMillan 24:23

We'll get there one day, right? There will

Kevin 24:25

All right

Ian McMillan 24:25

will be IPAs for f- that's how inflation and numbers work.

Kevin 24:31

Numbers just go up, right?

Ian McMillan 24:32

just literally go up

Kevin 24:34

Yeah, it's gonna be a doozy, I'm sure

Ian McMillan 24:36

And it'll be, right, and here's the thing about IPOs How much pri... Okay, how much price history do you need before it's viably tradable?

Kevin 24:45

Good question.

Ian McMillan 24:46

right? That depends

Kevin 24:46

And,

Ian McMillan 24:47

time frame

Kevin 24:48

right

Ian McMillan 24:49

If you're like a weekly trader, I guess a year daily, maybe like I don't know. I don't know

Kevin 24:56

Even thing too, right? Like if it's just one year worth of basically just a straight up drawdown too, how long does it take to actually get some structure you can work off of too? So I mean, is it 18 months? It's hard to say. Could IPO and just go up. I guess I have no idea

Ian McMillan 25:15

Yeah,

Kevin 25:16

It's gonna be interesting

Ian McMillan 25:16

f- I do feel like there's gonna be, I do feel like there'll be some type of shenanigans Then you got the whole lockup, right? I don't know. All this stuff's been talked about. I'm sure it's been priced in. I'm sure someone out there has figured it out And we just get to watch the show

Kevin 25:32

That's really it at this point, right?

Ian McMillan 25:34

Yeah

Kevin 25:35

Make some popcorn, see what happens

Ian McMillan 25:37

Anything else you think is super pertinent

Kevin 25:42

It's kind of been talked about already before. Seeing it more on X, but like Breadth

Ian McMillan 25:46

Sucks, man

Kevin 25:48

I know a lot of people have been talking on X advanced decline lines kinda leveling off. Those really haven't continued higher for the most part. If you look at like new high, new low indexes for the major indices and like the NYC in general, I mean, those have had pretty pretty strong end of May, beginning of June Which I guess kind of fits what we're seeing, right? Pretty thin performance for the most part. I mean, things that were already at new highs continue to make new highs where everything else is really just kinda hanging out

Ian McMillan 26:18

Yeah

Kevin 26:19

I don't know what Which of course, accidentally closed it right when I was ready to bring it up. You know, when you look at percentage of stocks just above their absolute 200 days. So like SPX,, really that kinda No. Beginning of the year, I would say kinda later Q1 is where that kinda peaked around, I don't know, probably 67, 68%. And we put in a new lower high in April around 60 and that's kinda closing in around 50%. So you're seeing those values kinda bleed off here a little bit,

Ian McMillan 27:02

Yeah

Kevin 27:03

Which is maybe a little concerning. I guess it just comes down to is it gonna be... And I guess that can last for a while, right? I guess you could consider that kind of a divergence, which those divergences we-

Ian McMillan 27:13

2021 starts to And you s- everyone will say, "Yeah, oh, well, if I happened..." Okay, yeah, we did get 2022, we did get a multi-month bear market, there was... Everything pretty much crapped out February of 2021. There's still, still 10 more months that money needed to be made. S&P was still going up. So

Kevin 27:34

Yeah, I mean, you can't hit the sell button just because of that. I mean, you're gonna... Trend's still up, still gotta participate, but definitely, definitely some flags out there, which, I mean, there always are, right? We talk about that all the time. But I guess it's just gonna come down to, is it gonna be, does breadth at some point catch back up? Like, are all these other areas like financials, healthcare, industrials outside of, you know, like the oddball things in those sectors that are participating. You know, is the rest gonna catch up or is it gonna be, semis, AI, all that stuff catch back down and-

Ian McMillan 28:09

Yeah

Kevin 28:10

And you know what that means? Wish I knew But

Ian McMillan 28:13

figure it out

Kevin 28:15

yeah, no kidding. Tell you what, though, they keep selling it today so far

Ian McMillan 28:19

I do Decent bounce yesterday. Today they were Not as Gentle

Kevin 28:27

Time will tell. Always does

Ian McMillan 28:29

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Kevin 29:33

Yep.

Ian McMillan 29:33

That's

Kevin 29:34

Can't go up all the... It is. It'd be nice if it went up all the time, but then I guess what would be the fun in that?

Ian McMillan 29:41

Gosh, and there's not, If I look here real quick Can we find this? I do not see many green areas today. Marijuana's up. Staples are up. Insurance. Okay, so financials. Banks are up a little. I don't know if I'm buying banks here. KRE at 70 bucks is Coming up on a decision, I guess. Transports. Transports was another one. Industrials, not terrible

Kevin 30:14

No, truck, especially trucking. I

Ian McMillan 30:15

Which I get. Yeah, exactly. So I guess a green flag. The fact that transports are above a relative 200-day is Impr-- I'm not saying it's a great looking relative chart, but

Kevin 30:30

At least participating

Ian McMillan 30:31

yeah at least we're... It's been outperforming all year,

Kevin 30:35

Right

Ian McMillan 30:36

since last November Yeah, but it's it's, yeah, utilities are up Utility's not even above a 200-day. Oh

Kevin 30:47

Pretty much testing the underside today

Ian McMillan 30:49

I know. And Staples have been terrible, just... Which is fine Healthcare is green. Actually it's kind of a neckline here on XLV at one fifty-four, but We'll see.

Kevin 31:03

Yeah.

Ian McMillan 31:04

Unfortunately, Kevin, we're gonna, we're gonna have to wait another day

Kevin 31:08

I feel like that's always the case, isn't it?

Ian McMillan 31:10

Every day I gotta wait another... Well, it's Friday

Kevin 31:13

Oh, I guess we gotta... Yeah, so we gotta win couple extra. That's fine

Ian McMillan 31:17

That's fine. I've had enough for this week

Kevin 31:19

Every Friday I pretty much get to that point. That's enough for one week.

Ian McMillan 31:23

That's enough

Kevin 31:23

days is enough

Ian McMillan 31:25

That's why I'm glad we

Kevin 31:25

But yeah.

Ian McMillan 31:26

on Fridays

Kevin 31:27

I know. It's a nice little break

Ian McMillan 31:29

Any, any last remarks, Kevin, before we hit the road?

Kevin 31:34

No Guess we'll get to see how this whole IPO thing plays out next week, Friday

Ian McMillan 31:40

Yeah, and wouldn't that be interesting if this whole thing ends up being a interesting market top? Doesn't, doesn't... I don't know if it has to be the top, but if we look back in a year, And we went through some BS, and it started at this SpaceX IPO

Kevin 31:59

Mm-hmm. Or even you could probably lump in like isn't Google trying to raise a bunch of money now?

Ian McMillan 32:06

Do they do a share issuance? Now, are debt issuance something?

Kevin 32:10

Let's see here So they're launching an at-the-market share program June first, authorizing up to forty billion in new Class A and C shares to be sold over time

Ian McMillan 32:19

Yeah. Selling stock for the first time since 2004

Kevin 32:22

Yeah, that would be an interesting timing, wouldn't it? When you get the IPO, some of these thematically related companies just trying to raise some cash up here and then it rolls over from there. Probably can't be too shocked, I wouldn't think We never know until it happens

Ian McMillan 32:40

Yeah. Well, Kevin, you have a wonderful weekend

Kevin 32:42

Yeah. Me too

Ian McMillan 32:44

Hope our listeners have a wonderful weekend. And we'll see you next week

Kevin 32:48

Sounds good. Have a good weekend

Ian McMillan 32:49

Later everyone