Episode 302: Indicative

 In this week's episode, David and Ian discuss the SpaceX IPO taking place today, how the different indices are treating SpaceX, areas of the market that are trying to breakout to new all-time highs, the recent price action for banks and the U.S. Dollar. They also discuss what they would like to see out of the consumer discretionary sector, how transports are still strong, and the World Cup kicking off this week.  

Transcript

David 0:55

Welcome back to the Weekly Trend podcast. Today is Friday, June 12th, 2026. S&P 500 currently sitting at seventy-four oh three. I'm David Zarling. I'm here with Ian McMillan. Probably should start with one of the bigger events in market history, the IPO of SpaceX 75 billion $75 billion, second largest. Saudi Aramco in 2019, $25 billion, so three times the size IPO

Ian McMillan 1:22

What

David 1:22

since then

Ian McMillan 1:23

value the company at? 75? No

David 1:27

Well, it's a 75 billion base offering So

Ian McMillan 1:31

cap is 1.7 trillion

David 1:34

Right

Ian McMillan 1:35

Hmm That's big. How much did

David 1:37

It is big

Ian McMillan 1:38

Did you get in?

David 1:39

Just started trading

Ian McMillan 1:41

Oh, you didn't get like a pre I- IPO allocation?

David 1:44

You know, didn't underwrite it, didn't get the pre-IPO. But it,

Ian McMillan 1:49

sitting on your

David 1:50

it's gonna be the, it's gonna be the Nasdaq. It's gonna be in telecom not gonna be an S&P or like transportation

Ian McMillan 1:59

indices have to go buy it on the open market, correct?

David 2:02

Yeah, that's my understanding. In order to get there

Ian McMillan 2:04

and these ETFs have to go buy it on the open market

David 2:08

Yep

Ian McMillan 2:09

So on, I guess you would see that today. You would see whoever, you know, funds that have to add shares to you know, because they track some type of index, right? You'd have to wait until shares are available Sell out rata You know, carve out a, a piece for your SpaceX allocation and then I guess buy him on the open market

David 2:35

Yeah, we got, it's 555,555,555 shares at 135 bucks underwritten by Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, Citigroup, JP Morgan Nasdaq 100 made exceptions The FTSE Russell allowed for fast entry for SpaceX S&P stood its ground or pulled back. They were gonna make an exception. They didn't. Dow, Dow Jones did not It'll be interesting to see how this unfolds. Gotta have some price history though first, right?

Ian McMillan 3:10

I mean, I've got price history. You pull up a one-minute chart, I've got like 17 candles

David 3:15

Well, it'll be interesting. It'll be interesting to watch how this unfolds. 'Cause what, I mean, in your purview, which is an opinion, is there a lot of What, what, what do you feel the sentiment is behind this?

Ian McMillan 3:23

I think it's pretty split I mean, I think most people agree it shouldn't be added to an index. It should-- You shouldn't amend the rules to immediately add it to an index. Now, whether the stock goes up or down, I feel like people are pretty split

David 3:38

Yeah, agreed But it's, I mean, it's definitely historic. I mean, largest IPO anybody listening's i- a lifetime

Ian McMillan 3:46

I don't know if I'm quite at the, like, this is gonna mark a top Could mark it well, could mark a top. I don't think this is the end of whatever we're in the midst of right now

David 3:58

From a broad market perspective

Ian McMillan 4:00

From a broad market perspective, yeah

David 4:02

I think it's fair I think it's interesting that, you know, on a day like today, you got small caps trying to Break out to 52-week highs

Ian McMillan 4:14

I'm trying Well, that

David 4:15

Dow Jones

Ian McMillan 4:16

Yeah, that would be all-time highs then too, right?

David 4:19

Well, all-time, all-time highs for small caps and then versus S&P 52-week highs

Ian McMillan 4:25

Oh, yes. Yeah, it's a nice... Holding the 200-day

David 4:29

Mm-hmm.

Ian McMillan 4:30

It's

David 4:31

And then you got the--

Ian McMillan 4:31

looking

David 4:33

You look at a long-term chart, chart of Dow Jones versus S&P I mean, bouncing pretty hard at levels that we last saw in 1903, 1981, and 1985. Wouldn't that be something? You, you have the largest IPO in history that's not being held by the Dow Jones, and Dow Jones outperforms from here

Ian McMillan 4:53

Well, Dal- the Dal needs a win, so it

David 4:57

It does

Ian McMillan 4:57

it needs a W in the correct decision because Recent history, not amazing Okay

David 5:05

Well, and I get it. I mean, you know, I know a lot of people like to slam the Dow Jones as of like a boomer index. You know, it's a price index. You tally up the top.

Ian McMillan 5:13

I'm one of those people

David 5:14

Yeah, and, and I get it. When you look back at history and how it was developed, I understand how it came to be. Cause it's a lot eas-

Ian McMillan 5:23

it made sense before Anyone ever had the concept of like, "Oh, we're gonna have to like split..." Or yeah, that anyone thought that shares were gonna be $600

David 5:34

Or yeah, like that you have to have cap weighting or equal weighting. It made sense

Ian McMillan 5:39

I'm surprised it's survived. I'm surprised it's still done a good job tracking

David 5:46

Well, Papa Dow is pretty correlated. I mean, Dow Jones, S&P, Nasdaq, heavily correlated

Ian McMillan 5:53

or week-to-week, but Yeah, I

David 5:56

But it makes sense if you're looking at a newspaper. Chuck Dow's looking-- Charles Dow's looking at a newspaper, and he's like, "Well, I'll just take the top 30 price stocks, tally them up, and I'm just gonna track that going forward." That makes sense

Ian McMillan 6:08

Those are clearly... Cause I'm sure everything used to IPO like a dollar a share

David 6:15

I'm sure that's changed over time, for sure

Ian McMillan 6:17

Yeah, but think how much like a dollar used to be

David 6:20

Oh, I remember my grandma, grandmama, now in heaven.

Ian McMillan 6:23

she was buying stocks?

David 6:25

No, no. I remember her talking about, this must have been right after, you know, or somewhere in the Great Depression, that she was responsible for going to the store, getting some bones for bone broth, dropped a nickel by accident on the lawn going back to the house, and everybo- all the family out on the lawn looking for a nickel Inflation be real. And that's, you know, it's... I mean, th- this goes back to why are we involved in markets? Well, well we're involved in markets not because they're fun or entertaining, although man, how many platforms and advertisements and things you see, it's the gambler addict's emotional high of being involved in something where really the reason why we're involved in markets is just, just to protect our purchasing power. Simple as that. Which isn't sexy, right? That's not emotional. And, you know, I, I, I suppose in some sense, SpaceX is a really sexy IPO And more to come, you know, with some of the AI, with Anthropic and OpenAI coming down the road too And to me, I feel like the narrative is that this isn't good, that these IPOs are marking a top. That could be. That could definitely be a thing

Ian McMillan 7:39

Listen to this. So they're... They didn't really have IPOs back in the day. If you

David 7:48

What?

Ian McMillan 7:48

wanted to raise money, you would just issue shares at a par value, which they used as $100.

David 7:56

Okay

Ian McMillan 7:57

Man, think of $100 in, like, 1890. It's a lot

David 8:01

Yeah

Ian McMillan 8:02

Until 1915, stocks on the NYSE were quoted and traded as a percentage of their par value rather than an exact dollar amount. If a $100 par value stock was trading at 95, the actual price was 95

David 8:19

I see Well, and

Ian McMillan 8:20

more you know

David 8:21

yeah, and we can be thankful for the markets that we have, you know, in, in the United States, and that we have a lot of European visitors for the World Cup. But the United States, all of our exchanges communicate with one each, o- o- you know, each other, not so much in the, in Europe. And I remember my dad talking about having a $2,000 minimum on a mutual fund and having to pay the front load fee. And now you can open up a supercomputer out of your pocket, press a button, and have shares, sometimes fractionally, on something that you want to own. No fee. It's crazy

Ian McMillan 9:02

It is

David 9:03

What do you think about the, the... I'm gonna throw out a thesis that SpaceX is the new railroad You know, railroads used to be... You know, people complain about the weighting of the top 10 stocks in the S&P 500 currently. I mean, railroads used to be Just huge cap weighting What do you think about SpaceX being the new railroad? The way we transport things to and from space

Ian McMillan 9:30

I mean, it could be. Guess you'd have to

David 9:32

Could be

Ian McMillan 9:32

pretty long-term view on the company

David 9:36

I mean, they have some type of moat. I mean, they do have reusable rockets. I'm not really aware of any other company that has re- reusable rockets. And and frankly, I think you do have to give kudos a little bit to Elon Musk for his ingenuity in this. You know, Starlink satellites, transportation to and from space

Ian McMillan 9:58

I mean, I, I don't, I'm definitely not a hater on his wealth or his successes. He's definitely, I mean, he seems like a pretty I don't know, gets a little touch of the tism sometimes.

David 10:12

Yeah

Ian McMillan 10:12

that out on Twitter, but other than that, I mean, I think he's done a lot more good for humanity than A lot of other people

David 10:21

I mean, think about the stuff he's done. You know, whether it's Tesla SpaceX, DOGE. Like

Ian McMillan 10:30

Yeah, DOGE kind of got stonewalled on, but

David 10:33

Oh yeah, but he obviously showed that there's some

Ian McMillan 10:37

Yeah

David 10:37

government financial issues, which we, we kinda knew, but he, he made them concrete for the citizens of this great country. And I'm sure there's haters out there, but at the same time, you know, he worked on hard problems. You know, how do we handle transportation without gasoline? How do we move things to and from space consistently without... You know, I mean, reusable rockets? Like, think about that. Like re- we-- In the current era,

Ian McMillan 11:08

Yeah

David 11:09

reusable rockets, like, oh yeah, that makes sense. I mean, we're, we're doing it with SpaceX. But like before SpaceX, reusable rockets? That's crazy And so I give the guy a lot of credit. You know, w- however this IPO turns out, like however this turns out, whether this is marking a top of some kind, I don't know. Wish I knew. We ask ourselves that every single day. Anybody know? Nobody knows, and that's okay. That's why we use price. And it'll be great to study SpaceX price from today going forward So the whole episode's not gonna be about SpaceX in case anybody's worried. What else are we seeing out there from a market perspective that's intriguing or worth letting our listeners know about?

Ian McMillan 11:51

I don't know. I mean Not a lot has changed. Obviously a little Little correction in stocks. I mean, you mentioned Russell's already back to All-time highs I mean, not much is not much has changed. Tech's still Clear leader. Energy not too bad. Guess the dollar's been a little stronger. Can't get above a hundred, though So yeah, back under, in the 99s on Dixie

David 12:24

Yeah, what do you think about banks going to new all-time highs using KBWB?

Ian McMillan 12:29

Yeah. It's unfortunate on the, Relative. What's that look like? KBWB Oh, see, I put on KBE. Wrong one

David 12:40

You got banks going out to new all-time highs. Largest industry segment in small caps at 9.5%. You mentioned small caps going out to new all-time highs. Global financials using IXG or let's even use GSIB

Ian McMillan 12:56

was gonna ask what's, what's your global... Yeah, those look pretty good, don't they?

David 13:02

You know, whether they have alpha-generating capability, I don't know. But the fact that financials are participating, XLF back above a 200-day moving average

Ian McMillan 13:13

I assume JP Morgan's doing well

David 13:15

JP Morgan above a 200-day, not at all time, new all-time highs yet. On a relative basis, still some work to do. But if you're seeing financials do well on an absolute basis, pretty hard to get overly bearish on a market

Ian McMillan 13:32

Yeah. I mean, Morgan Stanley looks good Pretty clean relative chart

David 13:36

Yep

Ian McMillan 13:37

breakout from early June Last week So you're saying that I shouldn't be scared? I just need to chill out

David 13:45

I think it's always appropriate to have multiple thesises. You can't, you can't rest on a 30-point lead in an NBA finals game You gotta, you gotta finish it So yeah, do we-- you wanna see SpaceX do well, you wanna see financials continue to hold up You wanna see broker-dealers and regional banks confirm new all-time highs Those are the things you wanna see. And I will say that CCC credit spreads, a measure of liquidity and market health, continue to climb a little bit. So yeah, there's some concern there But when you look at some economically sensitive areas like industrials

Ian McMillan 14:23

Yeah

David 14:23

even like something like Freeport-McMoRan, there's some things there. I think you highlighted this week that, you know, industrial, the industrial sector is large enough stock-wise that you're always gonna find something that's working But I think it matters that IYT transportation new all-time highs What about semiconductors? What are we seeing out of there?

Ian McMillan 14:45

Same old, same old. What's that what's that Michigan thing? Michigan... University of Michigan

David 14:54

Big Blue

Ian McMillan 14:55

Don't they put out, don't they put out something? survey

David 14:58

Sentiment Survey, Michigan Probably. I don't know

Ian McMillan 15:02

Research Center. Consumer Sentiment

David 15:06

Yeah Do you invest on that?

Ian McMillan 15:09

I don't know where I was going with that

David 15:11

Okay But I think semiconductors going to new all-time highs, stacking new all-time highs versus tech overall SpaceX IPO worrisome? Could be

Ian McMillan 15:22

What the other, like what about, you know, one... Apple's done okay. I think Microsoft still looks terrible. I do wonder about the mega caps

David 15:32

Yeah Yeah, mega cap using MGC not near a new all-time high When you look at like IWC, so micro caps versus MGC

Ian McMillan 15:44

They've gotta be doing great

David 15:46

Almost to 52-week highs

Ian McMillan 15:49

Yeah You know, one that never got going was biotech

David 15:53

I know. Sad

Ian McMillan 15:55

Maybe it will. I mean, banks started going. Re- are regional banks as good as big banks?

David 16:02

No.

Ian McMillan 16:03

No

David 16:04

No You mentioned the dollar being below 100

Ian McMillan 16:07

It's gotta

David 16:08

But right there.

Ian McMillan 16:09

For

David 16:09

But right there. For now

Ian McMillan 16:11

While we're still in this weak dollar is good for stocks environment. What about gold? Silver? Are we gonna see another run here? I think we're below the 200 day on gold and silver, aren't we?

David 16:26

We are

Ian McMillan 16:26

Yeah, so upward sloping However

David 16:32

You can see in the graphic

Ian McMillan 16:32

mean, if you got a recovery here in gold or silver, silver is technically, I mean It's right there. If you go to recovery Pretty good If you look at SLV 61, if you held that in the 200-day

David 16:48

Well, I mean, it had such an aggressive move from May of last year through January of this year. Yeah, if that got going again, could see that. Probably in a lower dollar environment. Could happen

Ian McMillan 17:02

Yeah, you probably need that tailwind No, I don't think, I mean, I think you can wait for your Dixie We knew Lowe's and Dixie would be what? 96-ish

David 17:14

Yeah

Ian McMillan 17:15

Which we've tried a few times to no avail

David 17:18

Yeah, basically since, yep, from April of last year through now, been sitting between ninety-six and a hundred. Sitting at ninety-nine seventy-five right now. Does it break through? What does that mean?

Ian McMillan 17:32

You mentioned tr, you mentioned transports earlier

David 17:34

Yep. New all-time highs

Ian McMillan 17:36

Very impressive grouping of stocks,

David 17:39

Agreed

Ian McMillan 17:40

the, the trucking

David 17:42

Yeah

Ian McMillan 17:43

Your Knight-Swift

David 17:45

Trucks are reusab- trucks are reusable too. Movement of goods on land

Ian McMillan 17:51

Things like United Rentals

David 17:53

United Rentals. Yeah, United Rentals. Where does that fall? Is that discretionary?

Ian McMillan 17:59

No, that's industrials. Well, tech... Well, you could put it under finance, under leasing.

David 18:09

Okay

Ian McMillan 18:09

I, I don't really like that. I get it. I get it. Eh, I don't really like that I mean, I would put it in consumer discretionary before leasing Like a rent-a-center, would you put a rent Rent-A-Center? Is it publicly traded? Someone probably owns it

David 18:27

Yeah, I'd love to see consumer discretionary get going here

Ian McMillan 18:31

Well, talk to Jeff Amazon's not really Doing too much. Failed breakout below 250 258, 215. gonna call that in there. Back down to its 200-day, but still in a rate of trend Off the '03 lows, '02 lows, technically, I guess. Late 2002

David 18:53

You've got a relationship that we like to look at, high beta versus low vol, holding a 50-day, rising 50-day moving average. Not at new all-time highs yet, but doing pretty good Momentum factor. You know, if we use something like SPMO versus S&P new all-time highs Speaking of momentum factor, new all-time highs. Good to highlight the support of this podcast, the Adaptive Select ETF listed on the New York Stock Exchange under ticker ADPV, which helps investors access two of the mo- most prevalent factors in markets, momentum and relative strength. Using proprietary identification methods, the Adaptive Select ETF attempts to own the strongest 25 large cap stocks when the market is in uptrend. And since not all market env-environments are the same, Adaptive Select seeks to prevent extended declines by moving to short-term Treasury bills and cash during long-term market downturns. Investors can find out more, including how to invest in ADPV, by visiting adpvETF.com or calling one-eight three three eight eight zero five two hundred. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. ADV is distributed by Quasar Distributors LLC. What else, Ian? What else is worth highlighting for our listeners before we sign off

Ian McMillan 20:11

You catching any of the World Cup games?

David 20:13

Yeah, I watched South Korea, Czech

Ian McMillan 20:18

That was the

David 20:18

last night. That was the one last night.

Ian McMillan 20:21

South

David 20:21

Happy, yeah, happy South Korea won. They were the better team, possessed the ball, really good midfield play, some really good runs by the forwards. They deserved to win. I mean, the Czech goal was very nice on a throw-in, but You got a team, USA doing it all?

Ian McMillan 20:37

Yeah, I'll cheer for the US. I'm a patriot

David 20:40

Of course. Red, white, and blue today, baby

Ian McMillan 20:42

That's what I meant.

David 20:43

it.

Ian McMillan 20:43

I'll tell you, I'll,

David 20:44

Got it

Ian McMillan 20:44

watch it tonight, I'm sure

David 20:46

Yep. On this evening against Paraguay. Gonna be great. 2-1 victory probably

Ian McMillan 20:53

Is that where you're

David 20:53

Otherwise I... Yeah, two-one

Ian McMillan 20:55

You locking in on Calshi?

David 20:57

Nope. Don't really play that game. I know there's plenty of people who do. But I like, I like US's attack style.

Ian McMillan 21:06

Do you like to

David 21:06

Play-

Ian McMillan 21:07

My friends who are in the soccer don't like to coach

David 21:11

Yeah, it's hard 'cause He, he wasn't the primary coach we want, we wanted after the last coach, but There's some things there. I mean, they're, they're much more on the attack, a little higher line play I think they'll do great in group play. What they do after that, I don't know

Ian McMillan 21:30

Do we have a easy group?

David 21:32

Easier

Ian McMillan 21:33

Easier. Okay

David 21:35

Easier? It'll be, it'll be inter- I mean, it should be. I mean, we're home field.

Ian McMillan 21:41

and Turkey

David 21:43

Right That's the easier group

Ian McMillan 21:45

I saw where we could potentially p- play England on the 4th of July

David 21:50

Love it

Ian McMillan 21:52

In Philadelphia

David 21:53

Huh. Let's do that. That sounds like a great storyline

Ian McMillan 21:57

I think we have to win our group, they have to finish second, and then both teams win their round of 32 game

David 22:05

Okay. So advance out of group play, US one, England two, and then win their next game and they could be playing on the 4th of July

Ian McMillan 22:15

in Philadelphia

David 22:16

Yeah, let's do it.

Ian McMillan 22:18

The ghosts

David 22:18

not?

Ian McMillan 22:19

Washington will rise

David 22:21

Why not?

Ian McMillan 22:22

I would do

David 22:23

Love it

Ian McMillan 22:23

would Use one of those Project Blue Beams. That'd make the ghost of all the forefathers appear

David 22:32

Little pregame s-

Ian McMillan 22:33

And they

David 22:34

little pre

Ian McMillan 22:34

sc- they would give a scolding to our population for how we're behaving right now

David 22:39

Yeah For reals. But no, it should be awesome. I mean, huge fan of World Cup. It's gonna be great Not going to a game. I mean, ticket prices are ridiculous. Maybe that's why some of the seats are empty. Maybe FIFA needs to get their act together

Ian McMillan 22:54

Yeah, it was dumb. And them taking away tailgating, so

David 22:57

Yeah. Lame

Ian McMillan 22:59

Although Philadelphia said no, they're gonna allow it. I don't know if any others cities said that they were gonna allow it, but

David 23:07

Probably not Seattle. They're a no fun zone

Ian McMillan 23:09

NFZ

David 23:11

Yeah

Ian McMillan 23:12

No tail di- no tailgating inside the Chaz? Isn't that what they called it? Oh. It's okay, we can make fun of them. I bet no one in the Chaz listens to our podcast

David 23:22

Probably not. I would guess not.

Ian McMillan 23:24

not. I'm gonna go out on a limb

David 23:25

You'd go on a limb saying people of the Chas do not, do not listen to the podcast. 100% agree with that. All right, anything else? Anything else before we get out of here? Tell our listeners give us a high ranking of choice on their platform

Ian McMillan 23:41

I don't. Yeah. I mean, markets it's in an uptrend. I, I can't give you a degree of the healthiness of the uptrend, but It's not sickly unhealthy, I don't think, as much as some may make it out to be

David 23:56

You mean from like a breadth perspective?

Ian McMillan 23:58

Yeah, and I mean, if Russell-- I get the breath thing, but then also if Russell is the first to all-time highs after this little correction, don't know, probably not terrible

David 24:11

Agreed.

Ian McMillan 24:12

terrible.

David 24:13

And you got transpor- transports

Ian McMillan 24:14

Yeah,

David 24:14

and

Ian McMillan 24:15

transports

David 24:16

Yeah, those are characteristics of bullish behavior for sure Well, love being back on here with you.

Ian McMillan 24:24

Yeah.

David 24:25

Appreciate you and, and you and Kevin covering ground last week. And to everybody listening, we ask you to share with your friends, family. It's a compliment to us. Give us a high ranking in your platform of choice. Get the word out. We really appreciate it

Ian McMillan 24:39

Have a great weekend, everyone