The Weekly Trend
The Weekly Trend is a conversation on various publicly-traded markets, seen through the eyes of technical analysis.
The Weekly Trend
Episode 302: Indicative
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In this week's episode, David and Ian discuss the SpaceX IPO taking place today, how the different indices are treating SpaceX, areas of the market that are trying to breakout to new all-time highs, the recent price action for banks and the U.S. Dollar. They also discuss what they would like to see out of the consumer discretionary sector, how transports are still strong, and the World Cup kicking off this week.
Welcome back to the Weekly Trend podcast. Today is Friday, June 12th, 2026. S&P 500 currently sitting at seventy-four oh three. I'm David Zarling. I'm here with Ian McMillan. Probably should start with one of the bigger events in market history, the IPO of SpaceX 75 billion $75 billion, second largest. Saudi Aramco in 2019, $25 billion, so three times the size IPO
Ian McMillanWhat
Davidsince then
Ian McMillanvalue the company at? 75? No
DavidWell, it's a 75 billion base offering So
Ian McMillancap is 1.7 trillion
DavidRight
Ian McMillanHmm That's big. How much did
DavidIt is big
Ian McMillanDid you get in?
DavidJust started trading
Ian McMillanOh, you didn't get like a pre I- IPO allocation?
DavidYou know, didn't underwrite it, didn't get the pre-IPO. But it,
Ian McMillansitting on your
Davidit's gonna be the, it's gonna be the Nasdaq. It's gonna be in telecom not gonna be an S&P or like transportation
Ian McMillanindices have to go buy it on the open market, correct?
DavidYeah, that's my understanding. In order to get there
Ian McMillanand these ETFs have to go buy it on the open market
DavidYep
Ian McMillanSo on, I guess you would see that today. You would see whoever, you know, funds that have to add shares to you know, because they track some type of index, right? You'd have to wait until shares are available Sell out rata You know, carve out a, a piece for your SpaceX allocation and then I guess buy him on the open market
DavidYeah, we got, it's 555,555,555 shares at 135 bucks underwritten by Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, Citigroup, JP Morgan Nasdaq 100 made exceptions The FTSE Russell allowed for fast entry for SpaceX S&P stood its ground or pulled back. They were gonna make an exception. They didn't. Dow, Dow Jones did not It'll be interesting to see how this unfolds. Gotta have some price history though first, right?
Ian McMillanI mean, I've got price history. You pull up a one-minute chart, I've got like 17 candles
DavidWell, it'll be interesting. It'll be interesting to watch how this unfolds. 'Cause what, I mean, in your purview, which is an opinion, is there a lot of What, what, what do you feel the sentiment is behind this?
Ian McMillanI think it's pretty split I mean, I think most people agree it shouldn't be added to an index. It should-- You shouldn't amend the rules to immediately add it to an index. Now, whether the stock goes up or down, I feel like people are pretty split
DavidYeah, agreed But it's, I mean, it's definitely historic. I mean, largest IPO anybody listening's i- a lifetime
Ian McMillanI don't know if I'm quite at the, like, this is gonna mark a top Could mark it well, could mark a top. I don't think this is the end of whatever we're in the midst of right now
DavidFrom a broad market perspective
Ian McMillanFrom a broad market perspective, yeah
DavidI think it's fair I think it's interesting that, you know, on a day like today, you got small caps trying to Break out to 52-week highs
Ian McMillanI'm trying Well, that
DavidDow Jones
Ian McMillanYeah, that would be all-time highs then too, right?
DavidWell, all-time, all-time highs for small caps and then versus S&P 52-week highs
Ian McMillanOh, yes. Yeah, it's a nice... Holding the 200-day
DavidMm-hmm.
Ian McMillanIt's
DavidAnd then you got the--
Ian McMillanlooking
DavidYou look at a long-term chart, chart of Dow Jones versus S&P I mean, bouncing pretty hard at levels that we last saw in 1903, 1981, and 1985. Wouldn't that be something? You, you have the largest IPO in history that's not being held by the Dow Jones, and Dow Jones outperforms from here
Ian McMillanWell, Dal- the Dal needs a win, so it
DavidIt does
Ian McMillanit needs a W in the correct decision because Recent history, not amazing Okay
DavidWell, and I get it. I mean, you know, I know a lot of people like to slam the Dow Jones as of like a boomer index. You know, it's a price index. You tally up the top.
Ian McMillanI'm one of those people
DavidYeah, and, and I get it. When you look back at history and how it was developed, I understand how it came to be. Cause it's a lot eas-
Ian McMillanit made sense before Anyone ever had the concept of like, "Oh, we're gonna have to like split..." Or yeah, that anyone thought that shares were gonna be $600
DavidOr yeah, like that you have to have cap weighting or equal weighting. It made sense
Ian McMillanI'm surprised it's survived. I'm surprised it's still done a good job tracking
DavidWell, Papa Dow is pretty correlated. I mean, Dow Jones, S&P, Nasdaq, heavily correlated
Ian McMillanor week-to-week, but Yeah, I
DavidBut it makes sense if you're looking at a newspaper. Chuck Dow's looking-- Charles Dow's looking at a newspaper, and he's like, "Well, I'll just take the top 30 price stocks, tally them up, and I'm just gonna track that going forward." That makes sense
Ian McMillanThose are clearly... Cause I'm sure everything used to IPO like a dollar a share
DavidI'm sure that's changed over time, for sure
Ian McMillanYeah, but think how much like a dollar used to be
DavidOh, I remember my grandma, grandmama, now in heaven.
Ian McMillanshe was buying stocks?
DavidNo, no. I remember her talking about, this must have been right after, you know, or somewhere in the Great Depression, that she was responsible for going to the store, getting some bones for bone broth, dropped a nickel by accident on the lawn going back to the house, and everybo- all the family out on the lawn looking for a nickel Inflation be real. And that's, you know, it's... I mean, th- this goes back to why are we involved in markets? Well, well we're involved in markets not because they're fun or entertaining, although man, how many platforms and advertisements and things you see, it's the gambler addict's emotional high of being involved in something where really the reason why we're involved in markets is just, just to protect our purchasing power. Simple as that. Which isn't sexy, right? That's not emotional. And, you know, I, I, I suppose in some sense, SpaceX is a really sexy IPO And more to come, you know, with some of the AI, with Anthropic and OpenAI coming down the road too And to me, I feel like the narrative is that this isn't good, that these IPOs are marking a top. That could be. That could definitely be a thing
Ian McMillanListen to this. So they're... They didn't really have IPOs back in the day. If you
DavidWhat?
Ian McMillanwanted to raise money, you would just issue shares at a par value, which they used as $100.
DavidOkay
Ian McMillanMan, think of $100 in, like, 1890. It's a lot
DavidYeah
Ian McMillanUntil 1915, stocks on the NYSE were quoted and traded as a percentage of their par value rather than an exact dollar amount. If a $100 par value stock was trading at 95, the actual price was 95
DavidI see Well, and
Ian McMillanmore you know
Davidyeah, and we can be thankful for the markets that we have, you know, in, in the United States, and that we have a lot of European visitors for the World Cup. But the United States, all of our exchanges communicate with one each, o- o- you know, each other, not so much in the, in Europe. And I remember my dad talking about having a $2,000 minimum on a mutual fund and having to pay the front load fee. And now you can open up a supercomputer out of your pocket, press a button, and have shares, sometimes fractionally, on something that you want to own. No fee. It's crazy
Ian McMillanIt is
DavidWhat do you think about the, the... I'm gonna throw out a thesis that SpaceX is the new railroad You know, railroads used to be... You know, people complain about the weighting of the top 10 stocks in the S&P 500 currently. I mean, railroads used to be Just huge cap weighting What do you think about SpaceX being the new railroad? The way we transport things to and from space
Ian McMillanI mean, it could be. Guess you'd have to
DavidCould be
Ian McMillanpretty long-term view on the company
DavidI mean, they have some type of moat. I mean, they do have reusable rockets. I'm not really aware of any other company that has re- reusable rockets. And and frankly, I think you do have to give kudos a little bit to Elon Musk for his ingenuity in this. You know, Starlink satellites, transportation to and from space
Ian McMillanI mean, I, I don't, I'm definitely not a hater on his wealth or his successes. He's definitely, I mean, he seems like a pretty I don't know, gets a little touch of the tism sometimes.
DavidYeah
Ian McMillanthat out on Twitter, but other than that, I mean, I think he's done a lot more good for humanity than A lot of other people
DavidI mean, think about the stuff he's done. You know, whether it's Tesla SpaceX, DOGE. Like
Ian McMillanYeah, DOGE kind of got stonewalled on, but
DavidOh yeah, but he obviously showed that there's some
Ian McMillanYeah
Davidgovernment financial issues, which we, we kinda knew, but he, he made them concrete for the citizens of this great country. And I'm sure there's haters out there, but at the same time, you know, he worked on hard problems. You know, how do we handle transportation without gasoline? How do we move things to and from space consistently without... You know, I mean, reusable rockets? Like, think about that. Like re- we-- In the current era,
Ian McMillanYeah
Davidreusable rockets, like, oh yeah, that makes sense. I mean, we're, we're doing it with SpaceX. But like before SpaceX, reusable rockets? That's crazy And so I give the guy a lot of credit. You know, w- however this IPO turns out, like however this turns out, whether this is marking a top of some kind, I don't know. Wish I knew. We ask ourselves that every single day. Anybody know? Nobody knows, and that's okay. That's why we use price. And it'll be great to study SpaceX price from today going forward So the whole episode's not gonna be about SpaceX in case anybody's worried. What else are we seeing out there from a market perspective that's intriguing or worth letting our listeners know about?
Ian McMillanI don't know. I mean Not a lot has changed. Obviously a little Little correction in stocks. I mean, you mentioned Russell's already back to All-time highs I mean, not much is not much has changed. Tech's still Clear leader. Energy not too bad. Guess the dollar's been a little stronger. Can't get above a hundred, though So yeah, back under, in the 99s on Dixie
DavidYeah, what do you think about banks going to new all-time highs using KBWB?
Ian McMillanYeah. It's unfortunate on the, Relative. What's that look like? KBWB Oh, see, I put on KBE. Wrong one
DavidYou got banks going out to new all-time highs. Largest industry segment in small caps at 9.5%. You mentioned small caps going out to new all-time highs. Global financials using IXG or let's even use GSIB
Ian McMillanwas gonna ask what's, what's your global... Yeah, those look pretty good, don't they?
DavidYou know, whether they have alpha-generating capability, I don't know. But the fact that financials are participating, XLF back above a 200-day moving average
Ian McMillanI assume JP Morgan's doing well
DavidJP Morgan above a 200-day, not at all time, new all-time highs yet. On a relative basis, still some work to do. But if you're seeing financials do well on an absolute basis, pretty hard to get overly bearish on a market
Ian McMillanYeah. I mean, Morgan Stanley looks good Pretty clean relative chart
DavidYep
Ian McMillanbreakout from early June Last week So you're saying that I shouldn't be scared? I just need to chill out
DavidI think it's always appropriate to have multiple thesises. You can't, you can't rest on a 30-point lead in an NBA finals game You gotta, you gotta finish it So yeah, do we-- you wanna see SpaceX do well, you wanna see financials continue to hold up You wanna see broker-dealers and regional banks confirm new all-time highs Those are the things you wanna see. And I will say that CCC credit spreads, a measure of liquidity and market health, continue to climb a little bit. So yeah, there's some concern there But when you look at some economically sensitive areas like industrials
Ian McMillanYeah
Davideven like something like Freeport-McMoRan, there's some things there. I think you highlighted this week that, you know, industrial, the industrial sector is large enough stock-wise that you're always gonna find something that's working But I think it matters that IYT transportation new all-time highs What about semiconductors? What are we seeing out of there?
Ian McMillanSame old, same old. What's that what's that Michigan thing? Michigan... University of Michigan
DavidBig Blue
Ian McMillanDon't they put out, don't they put out something? survey
DavidSentiment Survey, Michigan Probably. I don't know
Ian McMillanResearch Center. Consumer Sentiment
DavidYeah Do you invest on that?
Ian McMillanI don't know where I was going with that
DavidOkay But I think semiconductors going to new all-time highs, stacking new all-time highs versus tech overall SpaceX IPO worrisome? Could be
Ian McMillanWhat the other, like what about, you know, one... Apple's done okay. I think Microsoft still looks terrible. I do wonder about the mega caps
DavidYeah Yeah, mega cap using MGC not near a new all-time high When you look at like IWC, so micro caps versus MGC
Ian McMillanThey've gotta be doing great
DavidAlmost to 52-week highs
Ian McMillanYeah You know, one that never got going was biotech
DavidI know. Sad
Ian McMillanMaybe it will. I mean, banks started going. Re- are regional banks as good as big banks?
DavidNo.
Ian McMillanNo
DavidNo You mentioned the dollar being below 100
Ian McMillanIt's gotta
DavidBut right there.
Ian McMillanFor
DavidBut right there. For now
Ian McMillanWhile we're still in this weak dollar is good for stocks environment. What about gold? Silver? Are we gonna see another run here? I think we're below the 200 day on gold and silver, aren't we?
DavidWe are
Ian McMillanYeah, so upward sloping However
DavidYou can see in the graphic
Ian McMillanmean, if you got a recovery here in gold or silver, silver is technically, I mean It's right there. If you go to recovery Pretty good If you look at SLV 61, if you held that in the 200-day
DavidWell, I mean, it had such an aggressive move from May of last year through January of this year. Yeah, if that got going again, could see that. Probably in a lower dollar environment. Could happen
Ian McMillanYeah, you probably need that tailwind No, I don't think, I mean, I think you can wait for your Dixie We knew Lowe's and Dixie would be what? 96-ish
DavidYeah
Ian McMillanWhich we've tried a few times to no avail
DavidYeah, basically since, yep, from April of last year through now, been sitting between ninety-six and a hundred. Sitting at ninety-nine seventy-five right now. Does it break through? What does that mean?
Ian McMillanYou mentioned tr, you mentioned transports earlier
DavidYep. New all-time highs
Ian McMillanVery impressive grouping of stocks,
DavidAgreed
Ian McMillanthe, the trucking
DavidYeah
Ian McMillanYour Knight-Swift
DavidTrucks are reusab- trucks are reusable too. Movement of goods on land
Ian McMillanThings like United Rentals
DavidUnited Rentals. Yeah, United Rentals. Where does that fall? Is that discretionary?
Ian McMillanNo, that's industrials. Well, tech... Well, you could put it under finance, under leasing.
DavidOkay
Ian McMillanI, I don't really like that. I get it. I get it. Eh, I don't really like that I mean, I would put it in consumer discretionary before leasing Like a rent-a-center, would you put a rent Rent-A-Center? Is it publicly traded? Someone probably owns it
DavidYeah, I'd love to see consumer discretionary get going here
Ian McMillanWell, talk to Jeff Amazon's not really Doing too much. Failed breakout below 250 258, 215. gonna call that in there. Back down to its 200-day, but still in a rate of trend Off the '03 lows, '02 lows, technically, I guess. Late 2002
DavidYou've got a relationship that we like to look at, high beta versus low vol, holding a 50-day, rising 50-day moving average. Not at new all-time highs yet, but doing pretty good Momentum factor. You know, if we use something like SPMO versus S&P new all-time highs Speaking of momentum factor, new all-time highs. Good to highlight the support of this podcast, the Adaptive Select ETF listed on the New York Stock Exchange under ticker ADPV, which helps investors access two of the mo- most prevalent factors in markets, momentum and relative strength. Using proprietary identification methods, the Adaptive Select ETF attempts to own the strongest 25 large cap stocks when the market is in uptrend. And since not all market env-environments are the same, Adaptive Select seeks to prevent extended declines by moving to short-term Treasury bills and cash during long-term market downturns. Investors can find out more, including how to invest in ADPV, by visiting adpvETF.com or calling one-eight three three eight eight zero five two hundred. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. ADV is distributed by Quasar Distributors LLC. What else, Ian? What else is worth highlighting for our listeners before we sign off
Ian McMillanYou catching any of the World Cup games?
DavidYeah, I watched South Korea, Czech
Ian McMillanThat was the
Davidlast night. That was the one last night.
Ian McMillanSouth
DavidHappy, yeah, happy South Korea won. They were the better team, possessed the ball, really good midfield play, some really good runs by the forwards. They deserved to win. I mean, the Czech goal was very nice on a throw-in, but You got a team, USA doing it all?
Ian McMillanYeah, I'll cheer for the US. I'm a patriot
DavidOf course. Red, white, and blue today, baby
Ian McMillanThat's what I meant.
Davidit.
Ian McMillanI'll tell you, I'll,
DavidGot it
Ian McMillanwatch it tonight, I'm sure
DavidYep. On this evening against Paraguay. Gonna be great. 2-1 victory probably
Ian McMillanIs that where you're
DavidOtherwise I... Yeah, two-one
Ian McMillanYou locking in on Calshi?
DavidNope. Don't really play that game. I know there's plenty of people who do. But I like, I like US's attack style.
Ian McMillanDo you like to
DavidPlay-
Ian McMillanMy friends who are in the soccer don't like to coach
DavidYeah, it's hard 'cause He, he wasn't the primary coach we want, we wanted after the last coach, but There's some things there. I mean, they're, they're much more on the attack, a little higher line play I think they'll do great in group play. What they do after that, I don't know
Ian McMillanDo we have a easy group?
DavidEasier
Ian McMillanEasier. Okay
DavidEasier? It'll be, it'll be inter- I mean, it should be. I mean, we're home field.
Ian McMillanand Turkey
DavidRight That's the easier group
Ian McMillanI saw where we could potentially p- play England on the 4th of July
DavidLove it
Ian McMillanIn Philadelphia
DavidHuh. Let's do that. That sounds like a great storyline
Ian McMillanI think we have to win our group, they have to finish second, and then both teams win their round of 32 game
DavidOkay. So advance out of group play, US one, England two, and then win their next game and they could be playing on the 4th of July
Ian McMillanin Philadelphia
DavidYeah, let's do it.
Ian McMillanThe ghosts
Davidnot?
Ian McMillanWashington will rise
DavidWhy not?
Ian McMillanI would do
DavidLove it
Ian McMillanwould Use one of those Project Blue Beams. That'd make the ghost of all the forefathers appear
DavidLittle pregame s-
Ian McMillanAnd they
Davidlittle pre
Ian McMillansc- they would give a scolding to our population for how we're behaving right now
DavidYeah For reals. But no, it should be awesome. I mean, huge fan of World Cup. It's gonna be great Not going to a game. I mean, ticket prices are ridiculous. Maybe that's why some of the seats are empty. Maybe FIFA needs to get their act together
Ian McMillanYeah, it was dumb. And them taking away tailgating, so
DavidYeah. Lame
Ian McMillanAlthough Philadelphia said no, they're gonna allow it. I don't know if any others cities said that they were gonna allow it, but
DavidProbably not Seattle. They're a no fun zone
Ian McMillanNFZ
DavidYeah
Ian McMillanNo tail di- no tailgating inside the Chaz? Isn't that what they called it? Oh. It's okay, we can make fun of them. I bet no one in the Chaz listens to our podcast
DavidProbably not. I would guess not.
Ian McMillannot. I'm gonna go out on a limb
DavidYou'd go on a limb saying people of the Chas do not, do not listen to the podcast. 100% agree with that. All right, anything else? Anything else before we get out of here? Tell our listeners give us a high ranking of choice on their platform
Ian McMillanI don't. Yeah. I mean, markets it's in an uptrend. I, I can't give you a degree of the healthiness of the uptrend, but It's not sickly unhealthy, I don't think, as much as some may make it out to be
DavidYou mean from like a breadth perspective?
Ian McMillanYeah, and I mean, if Russell-- I get the breath thing, but then also if Russell is the first to all-time highs after this little correction, don't know, probably not terrible
DavidAgreed.
Ian McMillanterrible.
DavidAnd you got transpor- transports
Ian McMillanYeah,
Davidand
Ian McMillantransports
DavidYeah, those are characteristics of bullish behavior for sure Well, love being back on here with you.
Ian McMillanYeah.
DavidAppreciate you and, and you and Kevin covering ground last week. And to everybody listening, we ask you to share with your friends, family. It's a compliment to us. Give us a high ranking in your platform of choice. Get the word out. We really appreciate it
Ian McMillanHave a great weekend, everyone