The Weekly Trend
The Weekly Trend is a conversation on various publicly-traded markets, seen through the eyes of technical analysis.
The Weekly Trend
Episode 304: Worst Episode Ever
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In this week's episode, David and Ian discuss the current consolidation, what they are seeing out of financials, specifically banks, European financials, industrials, small cap areas of the market, like biotech, and improved breadth.
Welcome back to the Weekly Trend podcast. Today is Friday, July 10th, 2026. S&P 500 currently at 75.41. I'm David Zarling. I'm here with Ian McMillan. How was the 250th anniversary of our independence for you?
Ian McMillanIt's great. It's beautiful
DavidYeah. Do any parades,
Ian McMillanAnd
Davidparades or fireworks or sparklers for the kids?
Ian McMillanYeah, parades, sparklers, all the good stuff, all the Americana
DavidGreat
Ian McMillanThe way it should be, right?
DavidYeah, I gotta give a shout-out to Nebraska. We were in Nebraska for a wedding over the 4th, and wow, they know how to do fire- fireworks there. Legit
Ian McMillanNow, do you guys, do you guys have strict laws there?
DavidYeah, Wisconsin's one of those where a lot of times you have to go over the border to get the good stuff
Ian McMillaninto
DavidIllinois, Minnesota.
Ian McMillanYou buy your fireworks from Phibbs
DavidNo, their laws are probably stricter. I'm guessing you have to go to like Michigan or Minnesota. I'm not exactly sure. I mean, I love fireworks as much as the next person. I just can't bring myself to spend 1,000, 2,000 on it myself
Ian McMillanOh yeah, for sure not.
DavidBut you know, when you got kids in college and potential weddings coming up, kind of seems like a misallocation of capital, even though I like, trust me, love America
Ian McMillanYou could have, you could have fun for 100
DavidMm-hmm But I'm telling you, we were at this wedding, which was out in the country. Come over this country road hill, and you could see the whole skyline of Lincoln, Nebraska, and the whole skyline was lit up. It was insane. It was one of the most... I just giggled. It was, like, so shocking. And kudos, man. If you're celebrating, I mean, America is the greatest country in the world, and arguably the history of the world. I mean, nev- never has a society been so self-governed and so wealthy at the same time in the history of the world. Think we could be tha- thankful for that. Did you see the fireworks from the DC, what they did there? That was insane. Absolutely insane Anyway, it was nice to have the week off from the podcast, but we're back. Markets are a little higher from there, th- there, but right, still in a range
Ian McMillanStill blah. Not blah, but you know
DavidWell, if you like trends like we do
Ian McMillanSame, same spot we've been in for a couple
DavidYeah, since May
Ian McMillanSome things worse, some things better, I guess Tell Dow, I guess, has been in an uptrend. I mean, I wouldn't say it's like Strongest uptrend, but structurally, I guess
DavidWell, in technical analysis terms, Dow Near new highs. Dow transports new highs, so Dow theory confirming
Ian McMillanSure
DavidNot too bad financials participating Industrials participating. Like I'm not saying that that's where we've got alpha, but anytime financials and industrials are doing fine, it's really hard to get bearish on the market
Ian McMillanDoing fine We'll see. We'll see if they keep the old regional banks together. I'm a little sus about that one, but so far it seems to be holding Bank of America. The banks need to hold it together
DavidBut I don't know it
Ian McMillanAnd banks have been sideways since Getting in here
DavidWell, globally s- s- systematically important banks, GSIB ETF making new weekly closing highs if we hold today.
Ian McMillanWell, yeah, those banks
DavidEuropean banks trying to close at new all-time highs, EUFN. But you're talking like regionals? Like KRE?
Ian McMillanTalking about, I don't, yeah, we don't care about European
DavidI, I only do
Ian McMillanThis i- this isn't a European podcast
DavidWe get, we have some listeners in Europe
Ian McMillanYeah, but you don't wanna buy, you don't wanna buy these. It's the f- well, their relatives
DavidYeah, I w- when you,
Ian McMillanbut
Davidyeah, when you look at EUFN versus S&P, pretty nice consolidation on top of a base
Ian McMillanYeah, I mean, I could see that. The others, the others are
DavidGSIP continues to go out at new highs versus the S&P, but you're talking to them like, suppose we could use QYBA or
Ian McMillanAnd if you wanna
DavidKBWB
Ian McMillanI mean
DavidSome banks. No, on absolute they're going out to new highs, but you're saying, like, is this where you're gonna get alpha? Is this where you're gonna outperform Little harder But it's good. It's good that they're participating. They're r- not rolling over At least not yet. They always can
Ian McMillanNo
DavidSame with industrials. Industrials, big enough area that there's always something that seems to be working there, but as far as a group What else? What else are you seeing out there?
Ian McMillanIt's kind of Yeah, I guess. I guess, sir. Banco Santander. Sorry, I don't mean to get stuck
DavidNo, we can. Well, even Canadian, Canadian, Canadian bank,
Ian McMillanyeah, as in say
DavidCanadian banks. Shout out to our Canadian brothers Not bad. Foolish behavior
Ian McMillanCanadian banks Mm. Good for them Guess we'll just take the Stanley Cup, you guys can have the better bank stocks
DavidThat probably stung for some. That was a dagger, dagger out of the microphone of Ian McMillan.
Ian McMillanI am, I'm
Davidare feisty today
Ian McMillanI, I, that's why I got a, I got a woosah before our call here in a little bit. Just gonna go outside. Maybe I'm gonna sit by the
DavidYep, sit by the water. In the water
Ian McMillanIn the water maybe
DavidMaybe some box breathing
Ian McMillanThis is what, this is what happens. See, the, the tangents pick up on podcast when stocks
DavidYes, there is an uptrend in tangents when there, there is no trend in the market. I mean, we, we're still,
Ian McMillandon't,
Davidstill technically in uptrend, but what I guess we're trying to communicate is there is a consolidation.
Ian McMillanWe're in an
DavidBut there's a consolidation since May You know, you look at the S&P and it's... I mean, honestly, it's, it's a really good consolidation considering we moved 20% in the S&P, 33% in the Qs
Ian McMillanI mean, I'd rather do
DavidYeah.
Ian McMillandown to like
DavidYeah, we need to be thankful for the type of consolidation we appear to be getting, which is about 4% on the S&P and, what do we wanna call this? About 5% on the Qs I mean, I, I don't... Yes, would we love markets that go in a straight line? And there was a lot of money we made for our clients in that prior leg. So now we wait. Now we wait for this consolidation to resolve, and could honestly go into August. So maybe you'll be sitting in that pool even longer Maybe the tangent, maybe the tangents will increase
Ian McMillanThey'd hate us. The, the listeners would not happy.
Davidhappy with the tangent?
Ian McMillanBut yeah, I don't, I mean, what, I mean, even under the s- growth and value has been back and forth. I mean, there's not a lot of massive swings between growth and value over the last couple months. I the sectors that you would wanna see underperform are underperforming. I'm not saying we're getting a lot of outperformance from a wide variety, but at least, like, staples Utilities
DavidEven high beta ver-- low vol is consolidating
Ian McMillanHi, Bailey. Love all is good Dollar stays above 100,
DavidYeah, isn't that interesting that we haven't seen the market
Ian McMillanYeah, the... I'm s- I'm shocked that we're not falling I don't know. I
DavidDollar's holding 100.
Ian McMillanmean, we're definitely...
DavidWell, I say dollar's holding 100, but the weakness that we've seen the last few weeks in the dollar, I don't know, I guess I would ex- expected stocks to be weaker than they are with the dollar over 100
Ian McMillanYeah, and I mean, it's like you said, it's holding nicely Yeah, I mean, there does seem to be a shift, right? If you just look at like Russell 2000 versus the Seriously. Maybe we're, I mean, continue, but Biotech. Biotech's been on a good run. They kinda got to it today That's gonna have to hold it together
DavidOtech has had a good run And meanwhile, semiconductors continue to consolidate too. The leaders, it's not like we've had a massive breakdown I mean, semiconductors since March rallied 88%, and I suppose you could say, "Oh, it's a little bit uncomfortable to have a 12% range." Well, you did rally 88% and semiconductors from March through June
Ian McMillanWow
Davidnormal Pretty normal
Ian McMillanPretty solid additional context
DavidAlways got to keep that perspective Kinda like US getting bounced from the World Cup. Like if you'd told me they'd play like they did in the wor- in the group stage and then win their round of 32, I'd have been happy. But then when they lose round of 16, I'm unhappy. It's just context. You gotta remember, oh yeah, if, if they had gotten this far at the start, I'd been happy But now we all gotta cheer for Norway Are you?
Ian McMillanYeah. I mean, that's who I'm
DavidAre you? Feel like you should? And I always cheer for the favorites like France or Argentina
Ian McMillanNo
DavidSee? Another,
Ian McMillanYou don't
Davidanother tangent
Ian McMillanwhat are we gonna do, Dave? We gotta get this market to move. got to go for the sake of this podcast
DavidGotta poke a stick at it
Ian McMillanAnd it's kinda like watching paint dry. an intermediate to longer term trend follower, these are just the, these are the doldrums
DavidYeah Well, I just go, I just think a 4% range after a 20% move is pretty awesome if that's what we're gonna do. And if that's ABC, like using technical terms, if this is A is the first leg, B is the corrective move. If we get C that would be 9,100 On the S&P?
Ian McMillanYeah
DavidBut we gotta, we have A midterm year, Ian. You know, I feel like the politic thing hasn't... There's just not been a lot of narrative around that
Ian McMillanThere are people that, I mean, the p- we're, I think we're at the stage of, I mean, how do you even trade off that stuff? No one cares about this stuff anymore. There's still, Trump's still tweeting about the Iran war. Ceasefire, no ceasefire. Talks, no talks. People are just numb to it. People are numb to the political buffoonery. And it was going on before Trump. You know, it's not like This is new I don't, I don't... I mean, what if you're making portfolio decisions based on the What was that strait they blocked over there?
DavidData Hormuz
Ian McMillanStrait of Hormuz
DavidWhich is actually a curve. It's not straight. Although straight's a geological term That's spelled like
Ian McMillanDave, what are, what are we doing?
DavidWe win
Ian McMillanI don't know. What are we doing?
DavidNot geological, geographic. That's the term. Geographic. Strait of Hormuz, not straight
Ian McMillanGeological What's the difference between geological and geographical?
Davidlike geological is more like would that be like actual like physical elements? Like
Ian McMillanOh my God, we need this market to move
DavidYeah. It has to do with the study of Earth's physical structure, the solid materials such as rocks and minerals, geological
Ian McMillanWe're, yeah, if this market doesn't move, we're gonna have to segue into, like, a
DavidYep. Geographical would be more like mountains, plains, straits, Straits of Hormuz. I learned a, learned one I haven't heard since grade school. My brother I, that I saw in Nebraska was talking about wadis. I was like, "Dang, bro, bringing back some old..." You're right. Let me pause. We need this market to trend
Ian McMillanI apologize that this podcast is not informational
Davidtalked 4th of July fireworks rules, World Cup, geological versus geographical Cover anything else? I mean, we haven't talked about block cameras or And where do you...
Ian McMillanMessi's wedding
DavidWho? Oh, Messi? He's getting married? I thought he was already married
Ian McMillanYeah
DavidOh Maybe that's the point Hmm. Interesting
Ian McMillanYeah
DavidWhat I think I'd like to see if we're gonna move higher is junk bonds do a little bit better On an absolute basis, they look fine versus something like intermediate term bonds like IEF seven to 10 year bonds
Ian McMillanYeah
DavidTriple C credit spreads are still
Ian McMillanFine
Davidelevated. You know, we're s- yeah, we're still above 250, 250-day moving averages So we'll see. You know, w- what we haven't talked much about is like software or some of these Even Bisdee. Bisdee looks bad. Bisdee's, yeah
Ian McMillanI think a lot of the mega-caps are Netflix, Meta, Microsoft, Amazon
DavidApple, Apple's about to go to a new high
Ian McMillanYeah, Apple looks fine. Amazon's back below its 200-day, isn't it?
DavidAmazon, nope.
Ian McMillanNope,
DavidBounced. Meta, strong day today. Back above a 200-day
Ian McMillanWell, there you
DavidWhat about breath?
Ian McMillanFine It's fine I mean, overall the Dow is probably the weakest, but
DavidWell, the best performing index through the first six months of the year is small caps, Russell 2000, and then Nasdaq 100 So that's kind of healthy market behavior Makes you wonder where we'll end up on the year We've had...
Ian McMillanI mean, right now we're...
DavidGo ahead. No, no. You go
Ian McMillanI say we're the highest, highest on the S&P since June 15th. I don't know if we'll close here, but
DavidJune 15th. Feels so long ago
Ian McMillanLong time
DavidFeels so long ago. So breadth is good. Financials, industrials participating. Other things overseas participating. Some elevated CCC credit spreads. Dollar above a hundred. If we're being picky, likes better things out of junk bonds. Russell 2000 and Nasdaq leading halfway through the year. Ryan Detrick put out that there's been 11 Julys, the month of Julys, in a row positive. Do you think we get that for the S&P?
Ian McMillanCrazy. We're off to a good start
DavidWe are. And then when we go back to the midterm year thing I mean, typically we get a correction somewhere in these next three months, and then that's the bottom for the year and we rally into year end. It'll be interesting to see if that happens again, if we get corrective behavior somewhere in the next three months And then higher. Or if that was just it, the low was this early July and We're back to talking strength next week and our listeners are happy. They're not turning it off early because we're talking about random things What's the VIX doing? Ooh, volatility lowest, lowest since May.
Ian McMillan18?
David15
Ian McMillanWow, 15 So yeah, I mean, you could See another flush down here to the
DavidYeah. Take it. Take it. Let's do it
Ian McMillanBut until
DavidWe wait And that's okay. But I do wanna highlight before we wrap this up the supporter of this podcast, the Adaptive Select ETF listed on the New York Stock Exchange under ticker ADPV, which helps investors access two of the most prevalent factors in markets, momentum and relative strength. Using proprietary identification methods, the Adaptive Select ETF attempts to own the strongest 25 large cap stocks when the market is in an uptrend. And since not all market environments are the same, Adaptive Select seeks to prevent extended declines by moving to short-term treasury bills and cash during long-term market downtrends. Investors can find out more, including how to invest in ADPV, by visiting adpv ETF.com or calling 1-833-880-5200. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principle. ADPV is distributed by Quasar Distributors LLC. Anything else you wanna highlight, Ian? before we release our listeners into the second half of the year
Ian McMillanSecond half of the year. Man, when you put it like that, Dave
DavidWell, doesn't it always feel like 4th of July happens and then it's Christmas? Maybe that makes me sound old. Maybe that's really what that's is, is... Wow, Dave
Ian McMillanThings get
DavidThey do It'll be interesting. I, I, and I think we just have to appreciate when uptrends happen, and also be grateful for sideways consolidations that are only 4% depth. I mean, that's pretty minuscule Don't really want it, don't, don't really want it to devolve into like a 10 to 15. That's not as fun And really during these periods of consolidation, you kind of have to look at what are the strong things And so it does make you wonder, you know If s- value is gonna hold up better than growth, it's not. That's not really happening. It's more growth. So it makes you wonder if-
Ian McMillanI know. It's so hard to... I wouldn't say hard. That's not the right word. Just It's a period of markets in the tumbler and Resume higher, we'll
DavidLike we're riders on the storm
Ian McMillanOoh. Ooh. I like that. It's probably gonna be the podcast title
DavidI like it Cause it, I mean, it, it's just little bit of volatility here and, and again, I, I guess I shouldn't paint it as, "Oh yeah, we're going higher." But I don't think we get to c- complain about a 20% advancement or percent consolidation, and then if we do move higher, I don't think we can complain about that
Ian McMillanAgree
DavidWe just like straight trends We like making money for our clients.
Ian McMillanmu- they're
DavidYeah, we like making money for our clients and it's better when it's in a straight line. Everybody likes that. Who doesn't like that? You're probably a communist if you do like that
Ian McMillanMommies love
DavidYes. Communist
Ian McMillanIt's how they take advantage
DavidMm-hmm.
Ian McMillanof society
Davidright Gotta keep the uptrends uptrending Anything else you wanna highlight? You could even do another tangent, Ian. I don't care. It's our podcast
Ian McMillanGood
DavidYou're good? You're good?
Ian McMillanI am
DavidAll righty. Well, it was good to get back on here with you. Maybe we get a resumption of the uptrend. Maybe we continue to consolidate. Either which way, we will try to continue to provide some episodes for you all. They'll be more probably engaging when the uptrend continues, unless you guys really like our tangents, which that's fine too. Otherwise, we appreciate everybody listening. Would love it if you gave us a high ranking on your platform of choice and shared it with your friends. That would mean a lot to us
Ian McMillanThat what? Have a great weekend everyone.