Episode 307: Interesting Relatives

 In this week's episode, Ian and Kevin discuss the inability of  broad financials, insurance, and healthcare to hold gains made earlier in the week, how European financials and larger global banks continue to stand out, interesting relative relationships, like growth versus value and micro caps versus mega caps. They also discuss the breakdown in long-term US treasuries, recent pullback in the US Dollar, and the continued back and forth between the Magnificent Seven constituents.  

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Ian McMillan 1:12

Welcome back to the Weekly Trend podcast. My name is Ian McMillan. Today joined by Kevin Firari, our well-known analyst and fixed income expert. S&P sitting at 7427 Which is where we were last Friday when we recorded. Kevin, anything that you think is super pertinent to share? Anything you're just dying to get off your chest

Kevin 1:48

Dying to get out of this range, I guess. It would be nice.

Ian McMillan 1:52

we're, we're going into,

Kevin 1:54

We're, like, smack dab in the middle

Ian McMillan 1:56

week four, week five of the doldrums, man

Kevin 2:02

Yeah, I mean, we're... Holy cow. I mean, if you use the day we first entered this range, 59 bars, 86 days

Ian McMillan 2:13

86 days

Kevin 2:16

So that's including weekend. So yeah, you pretty much hit it right on the head, two months, 60 days. Feels like it's been two years

Ian McMillan 2:25

I've at le- I've aged at least two years

Kevin 2:27

Right

Ian McMillan 2:28

mentally and physically

Kevin 2:29

Mm-hmm.

Ian McMillan 2:30

But yeah, so rough day. I mean, we had some action this week. We had some volatility. Looks like we're not gonna get any answers. Big move Wednesday and another big move Thursday And like like I said at the beginning of the podcast, we're right back to where we've been for... I mean, we're right where we were when we recorded on the 17th

Kevin 2:57

Yeah. Yeah, I mean, there was kind of some promise there, you know, especially like Tuesday, you know, with the move financials and like healthcare had. Let's throw like insurance into that bucket too.

Ian McMillan 3:10

Yeah, then they kind of

Kevin 3:12

pretty much right away took that away

Ian McMillan 3:15

They even came for the Russell

Kevin 3:16

Mm-hmm. So maybe we had some light at the end of the tunnel there maybe where we could start getting into and participating in some things, but then soon as you're in, you're pretty much out

Ian McMillan 3:25

and I mean, it's not It's not like it's screaming in some, like,

Kevin 3:30

No, it's pretty controlled. No

Ian McMillan 3:33

It's just the slowest And it's actually, I would say, a little bit more of a downtrend than the S&P visually

Kevin 3:40

Right. Yeah, it's like an even more controlled version of what we saw in, like, March of You know, this year in like the S&P,

Ian McMillan 3:49

this

Kevin 3:50

just like,

Ian McMillan 3:50

see that

Kevin 3:51

but like an even tighter, slower kind of grind lower now

Ian McMillan 3:56

it's like watching paint dry

Kevin 3:58

Right

Ian McMillan 3:59

And then, yeah, big gap up this morning. Thought maybe there might be some continuation off yesterday's move. I think a lot of people thought, "Okay maybe it's over. We've had our capitulation bottom." And there... I mean, there are some beautiful failed breakdowns, big green candles yesterday yeah, the mar-- I mean, just more typical behavior for this market, just not really No conviction to go anywhere up or down

Kevin 4:26

Yeah, just chat. A lot of chat

Ian McMillan 4:28

Breakouts don't really work. I think you s- I mean, you saw a few place, few areas Tuesday, Wednesday trying to go higher. Monday, Tuesday are probably better way to put that. Financials have held up well, healthcare banks still okay. Insurance was a very strong one that kinda got blocked on the head

Kevin 4:52

Mm-hmm. That was pretty short-lived. And I mean, even for the banks, I mean, it's, you know, like we talked about GSIB on here, I feel like quite a bit. That's really what's holding up the best, like your larger global, you know, what you would consider, well, I guess based on the way the fund's named, right, systemically important. So I mean, it's really kind of your big players in the banking space, 'cause even, you know, like KBE or KB, what is it? WB is the other one. You know, things like that really just kind of hanging out. You know, GSIBs definitely, you know, holding up a lot better than those two. You know, they're doing well relative versus the S&P.

Ian McMillan 5:33

Good.

Kevin 5:33

mmhmm

Ian McMillan 5:34

good.

Kevin 5:35

So it's even on,

Ian McMillan 5:36

to

Kevin 5:36

yeah

Ian McMillan 5:37

I don't... We just cannot... We- the retail XRT Things can't hold

Kevin 5:44

No So that, you know, and European financials I think are interesting You know, still out around,

Ian McMillan 5:51

sense with GSib

Kevin 5:52

right? Which, you know, it's definitely, you know, heavier to a lot of those bigger banks like that. And even EFA looks pretty much, at least on an absolute tr- well, actually, you know, it's more so identical to that. I mean, I guess depending on what they do with that today, maybe that's a failed breakout. I mean, it looked really good yesterday

Ian McMillan 6:10

though, man. The boy, the boy who cried wolf.

Kevin 6:13

Mm-hmm. That's the problem. Like, is this-- Right? 'Cause we just talked about broad financials, insurance that really didn't stick, healthcare didn't stick. Is this gonna stick? I guess you don't know. Maybe we just gotta get moving

Ian McMillan 6:24

your JP, where's, what's old JP and BAC? I mean, they're holding in there. Trying... This ba- this JP Morgan relative chart is Well, I mean, going and back literally my entire life

Kevin 6:36

Mm-hmm.

Ian McMillan 6:38

Tried earlier in the year. Thought we were gonna do it back in January Sold off Now we're back Bank of America holding above 60. 60, yeah, back to 62 today Maybe a little bit better of a Relative charts in JP Morgan. than, relative chart's higher than it was in January

Kevin 6:59

No.

Ian McMillan 6:59

And yeah, again, those would fall under your

Kevin 7:02

Yeah, kinda that GSIB theme, right? Yeah.

Ian McMillan 7:04

yeah,

Kevin 7:05

And I know like HSBC has been doing really well, and that's kinda... I think that's, I don't know if that's the largest holding. I mean, it's at least the largest, you know, performance contributor in like EUFN. And like, you know, EUFN versus the S&P today, they're trying to get the relative breakout here the last two days, kinda testing those relative, relative lows from back in like twenty nineteen, twenty twenty. Kinda, you know, we've been trying to break this level now for the last six, seven years. So that would be, if they could do it and stick it, that would be a... You know, that's quite the relative base there. You would think that thing would have some, some alpha to it. But I mean, that's the thing, these things haven't been sticking, which I guess makes sense, right? I mean, overall market really directionless for the most part. Yeah, I suppose you have to assume the probability of those breakouts sticking is gonna be less in an environment like that

Ian McMillan 7:57

Breakdowns, breakdowns don't stick either

Kevin 7:59

Oh, right. Yeah, really nothing is. It's just You're basically in a mixing bowl

Ian McMillan 8:04

Mag Seven all mixed up. You got Microsoft has a good move, big move. Was that yesterday? Amazon with the big move today, but then you've got Apple down 10%.

Kevin 8:18

Mm-hmm.

Ian McMillan 8:19

Microsoft, I don't even know if you fixed anything.

Kevin 8:22

No, we were kind of talking about that before, right? Like your, like that chart you shared, was it like 470, somewhere in there, ballpark? Like the

Ian McMillan 8:30

Yeah, there's a confluence of

Kevin 8:32

On level zero really.

Ian McMillan 8:34

here

Kevin 8:34

Mm-hmm. Which really, if you wanted to, if you really wanted to short Microsoft, this is pretty much the time to do it

Ian McMillan 8:41

This would be the spot to do it, if you're into such things

Kevin 8:44

Mm-hmm. Whatever floats your boat Yeah, I don't know

Ian McMillan 8:47

stock that hasn't gotten any bounce? I mean, really pathe-- I mean, it's been pathetic for, I mean, all year, really even into Q4 last year. But no, like, no bounce through any of this. Just bleeds lower is Palantir Terrible s- I mean, in the context of the last few years, a great stock. But the last nine months And they didn't really even try. I mean, I guess a little bit here at the end of June tried to, but And that was one of those where it's had two really good earnings reports, and

Kevin 9:24

Subpar reactions

Ian McMillan 9:26

yeah, it's just terrible

Kevin 9:28

Mm-hmm.

Ian McMillan 9:29

to them. And then, yeah, you look six months pa- after those and But yeah, Max, a lot of the A lot of the techie stuff is just

Kevin 9:39

You know, let's see about... I don't know. I feel like now, like a lot of these relative charts are really the most interesting. Like that, you know, especially in, like the mags or like your mega cap stuff. Like, I feel like a lot we've been talking about the micro cap to mega cap charts, like IWC, MGC

Ian McMillan 9:57

Yeah, that's fallen off a bit,

Kevin 9:59

Yeah. Like that's fascinating where, that turned back. It was really like those kind of like summer of '23 highs. and even now below Well, like 0.7 I guess if you're actually looking at the chart, which is kind of another area you might expect to maybe see kind of some relative support. But yeah, that's really kind of fallen off. And I mean

Ian McMillan 10:20

I mean, look at that. It looks just like IWM, very controlled, very

Kevin 10:23

Mm-hmm. And even if you look at

Ian McMillan 10:26

walk this down to the, to wherever we're going.

Kevin 10:28

At 200-day maybe,

Ian McMillan 10:30

at this

Kevin 10:30

which kinda roughly lines up, like if you would draw a trend line, you know, from like those 25 relative lows, you know, it would kinda match up to that, so that would be kinda interesting. Like even looking at mega cap growth just versus the mags. I mean, that's even interesting where You know, basically July 1st, end of June, beginning of July. That's an area that, that relationship's kinda turned back before historically. Kinda April of '25, before that, kinda fall of '24. It's just interesting how some of these relative charts just kinda continue to flip at some of these levels So, I mean, right, and you look at, to kinda continue with that, I guess, kinda cap theme like growth versus value, like SPYV versus SPYG, or you can even do it with just pure value and growth, I mean, value kinda getting turned back at some interesting levels.

Ian McMillan 11:29

I know.

Kevin 11:31

Like SPYV, using that

Ian McMillan 11:32

with how well The Russell is doing

Kevin 11:35

Mm-hmm

Ian McMillan 11:36

I thought value, and then, yeah, all this like

Kevin 11:40

Like you're seeing a lot of,

Ian McMillan 11:42

I mean, yeah,

Kevin 11:42

mmhmm

Ian McMillan 11:43

Yeah, it was interesting. I mean I guess kind of a failed, it's har- I mean

Kevin 11:48

I mean, val- like a lot of these value areas, I feel like, especially on a relative basis, had a chance to start breaking some of this stuff in relation to like growth or mega cap. No, that just didn't do it

Ian McMillan 11:58

They just don't do it. Growth does, though.

Kevin 12:01

Yeah

Ian McMillan 12:01

takes a situation by the cojones and does something with it.,

Kevin 12:07

I feel like we-- Right, I just keep getting that feeling that y- I don't think you can be surprised if, and you kinda get this feeling just looking at MAGS by itself. But I don't think you can be too shocked if like the MAGS and like your mega cap growth, like stuff like that just take off again. You know what I mean? It's like these value areas had their chance, didn't do it

Ian McMillan 12:27

chance. It's like being a value investor is like being a Republican when they control the White House and the entire Congress, and then

Kevin 12:35

Mmhmm

Ian McMillan 12:36

do anything with it.

Kevin 12:37

Right

Ian McMillan 12:39

Same thing.

Kevin 12:40

And especially where a lot of these...

Ian McMillan 12:42

We all watched it,

Kevin 12:43

Mm-hmm

Ian McMillan 12:44

and then we watched you all botch it

Kevin 12:46

Watch you fumble it

Ian McMillan 12:47

Back to growth

Kevin 12:49

Just like a Packers playoff meltdown in the second half. You pretty much know what's coming at this point I don't know, like some of these too, how like they're respecting these long multi-year, like relative rates of trend, when you draw a trend line on the upper bounds of that. Like, I feel like that's even going through like our workbooks here the last couple weeks just like through individual stocks. I feel like the predominant theme is like, and especially in these value areas, things that were, on an absolute and relative basis performing well, and especially more so, you know, that had really good looking absolute charts. Like once you got into that kinda relative rate of trend area, like kinda close to where you're testing those bounds, it's like immediately, those absolute charts just started to pause, pull back, and it's like they just can't, just can't do it.

Ian McMillan 13:42

Can't do it

Kevin 13:42

I mean, it's crazy how many, even across different sectors, just like how common that, look was.

Ian McMillan 13:49

And look at industrial. I mean, know where industrials fall. Probably one that can be split between value and growth But yeah, man, just it's another set. Can't get away from a relative 200 day. a, like, really good looking... I mean, real- like up until... I mean, look at last Friday's candle. I mean, last Friday had a good candle. It was getting a lot of attention between, from the chart watchers Fumbled. Fumbled in the red zone Relative chart is just cesspool

Kevin 14:22

Yeah, I kind of wonder too, right? Is like a lot of this, are we just, these relative charts just gonna keep flipping back and forth until we get out of this range? Like, you keep thinking you're getting, like we were talking about with value, right? Like, is this gonna be the time value finally takes control? Got up to an area where, okay, like now you gotta, walk the walk. Can't do it.

Ian McMillan 14:41

pretty cool to be a mean reversion trader right now.

Kevin 14:43

Oh, right

Ian McMillan 14:45

Not a trend follower. So congrats

Kevin 14:47

what we sh- that's what we should be doing. Yeah, I don't know. It's hard to say. I mean, it's like you keep seeing these points where we're like, okay, I mean, we could be looking back on this in a couple weeks, couple months and be like, yep, you saw where it flipped and now it's business as usual for like your tech mega cap

Ian McMillan 15:04

higher, it's gonna be a heck of a move

Kevin 15:08

Yeah

Ian McMillan 15:10

The tighter this keeps going, I mean, I, I know I saw a good chart and I can't remember who it was. But they had put up the Bollinger Bands. I mean, Bollinger Bands on the S&P are Height If you look at like a, What was he looking? I can't remember what he was looking at, but Yeah, you get sideways Hopefully it's a beach ball under the water

Kevin 15:33

Mm-hmm.

Ian McMillan 15:34

and we get the pop

Kevin 15:35

Well, that's the thing, right? Like with-- I mean, not that we really rely on the headlines or anything like that, but everybody at the Fed seems to be fighting whether or not we gotta be raising rates. I mean, that adds uncertainty, right? I mean, that did...

Ian McMillan 15:45

you what the market says

Kevin 15:47

Well, yeah. I know we can get to that, but then, like, I wonder how much of the, like, we can't really figure out what the dollar's for sure gonna be doing. I wonder how much that really plays into it.

Ian McMillan 15:57

Yeah

Kevin 15:58

you have like seasonality-wise, right? August is supposed to be pretty rough

Ian McMillan 16:01

the new Fed president's first Was this his first, like, FOMC thing?

Kevin 16:07

Yeah, I think so, right? Like, what was that, a month ago or so?

Ian McMillan 16:10

they said he was real short and sweet, right?

Kevin 16:13

Then they wanna...

Ian McMillan 16:14

back to the way it used to be.

Kevin 16:16

Mm-hmm

Ian McMillan 16:17

I don't

Kevin 16:17

Kinda wanna

Ian McMillan 16:18

Be- Bernanke, but Yellen and Powell to get up there and talk, talk, talk. And from my understanding is he's kinda come back to where you shouldn't really hear much from Fred Pre- Fed presidents or Fed chairman, whatever his official title is. I guess you got these regional presidents. I don't know how they tier it up.

Kevin 16:41

And it kind of

Ian McMillan 16:41

that's also, right? We've heard a decade plus you had a Fed got up there and ran their mouths and lots of insight and told you every they tell you if they had a nightmare last night.

Kevin 16:54

Mm-hmm

Ian McMillan 16:56

And now we've got this guy that's the opposite, and I wonder if that throws a doozy into a lot of these institutions that depend. Well, now

Kevin 17:06

Mmhmm

Ian McMillan 17:07

Trump's tweets for $100... For 100 grand, you can get his tweets early. If

Kevin 17:10

No?

Ian McMillan 17:11

you

Kevin 17:11

It's holy cow

Ian McMillan 17:13

Our president selling a subscription service while sitting in office

Kevin 17:19

I know that more people are probably trying to think why they didn't think of that first

Ian McMillan 17:23

All right, so we had the move higher in rates. I mean, we are-- We're through five.

Kevin 17:30

No

Ian McMillan 17:31

This seems to be done. I mean, right? And this is off of almost a three-year consolidation.

Kevin 17:38

Mm-hmm.

Ian McMillan 17:39

We are not... This is not coming off a rip. This is... I mean, what you expected if you a believer in the new rate cycle. Obviously, we ripped from COVID lows through 2023, pretty big move, and then sideways for essentially three years. And so now you're looking at the next leg up. But Kevin, hey, kind of an interesting move in The dollar this week

Kevin 18:09

Yeah, they t- and I mean, it keeps getting more interesting as today goes on. 'Cause like yesterday, I mean, I can... Yesterday they technically broke it under 100. I mean, I feel like with the dollar you gotta give it a little bit of leeway there. I mean, we're still right around 100, just a hair over today

Ian McMillan 18:26

I mean, whatever you want. Okay,

Kevin 18:28

Mm-hmm. Yeah, somewhere, yeah,

Ian McMillan 18:30

Yeah, if, you

Kevin 18:31

and a half. Give it like 50 cent buffer, right?

Ian McMillan 18:34

yeah, they would know where to draw the line. But

Kevin 18:37

But...

Ian McMillan 18:37

very big break, like failed breakout,

Kevin 18:40

Mm-hmm.

Ian McMillan 18:41

which looked really good. mean, we'd been working on that since mid-June. Came down we got to one high 101s,

Kevin 18:52

Mm-hmm.

Ian McMillan 18:53

came back down, tested, broke higher, and then Monday, Thursday, and today just boom, boom, boom

Kevin 19:01

Mm-hmm. I was like earlier this morning, I'm like, "Oh boy, watch, they're just gonna recover this and we're gonna keep going back and forth." But yeah, it's not a great looking candle today at all. So

Ian McMillan 19:11

So we're under d- so, and here's the thing though. So we're

Kevin 19:16

they're like

Ian McMillan 19:16

100 And it was okay. Okay, so this started Wednesday, stocks sold off. hit hard, stocks got hit hard. Thursday, dollar gets hard, stocks rally. Today it's dollar well off its highs, stocks off their highs Which is interesting, right? Because I would have thought, and maybe this does come to fruition in next week and stuff like that But if you would've told me we were gonna get a failed-- I just would've thought we would definitely be on day three of a rally.

Kevin 19:52

Mmhmm

Ian McMillan 19:53

if you had given me the one piece of data, "Hey, by Friday afternoon..." It's Tuesday, "And by Friday afternoon, Dixie's gonna be back under 100 or at 100," I would've been like, "Okay, I bet, I bet the Nasdaq's up, like, 6% in three days." And that hasn't been the case

Kevin 20:13

Right

Ian McMillan 20:14

Again, that can ha- that could always happen, but it hasn't been the immediate flip back to, "Okay, let's buy stocks," that I would've guessed

Kevin 20:26

Yeah, but I think if, you know, just today if we kinda close near the top of today's range, I mean, if I feel like that's more of an interesting look, I think

Ian McMillan 20:36

You think that maybe there's something there?

Kevin 20:38

Maybe. I

Ian McMillan 20:39

Okay

Kevin 20:40

mean, I think, I mean, right, you're never gonna know until we finally get, like, back up above Like 7,600 again, but I mean, just with

Ian McMillan 20:49

it's just everyone having to go back to growth.

Kevin 20:52

That, I

Ian McMillan 20:52

Maybe it'll be a growth, more of a growth value thing

Kevin 20:55

Yeah, it's so interesting. I mean, that, I wouldn't be shocked. I mean, that's kind of the, the feeling that like I feel like I'm getting now. But like even now, you know, Meg's struggling at the 200-day. I don't know. It's just hard.

Ian McMillan 21:09

Really hard.

Kevin 21:10

I feel like every week mine keeps flipping back and forth which side of the aisle we're gonna be on. Nah, 'cause we're range bound, right? I don't know

Ian McMillan 21:14

would make sense based on the price action. I can't blame you on that one Well, and that's why, I mean, yeah, until you get out-- I mean, yeah, you can do things in this range. Don't do anything too You

Kevin 21:24

Mmhmm

Ian McMillan 21:24

like, 25% long semiconductors, 'cause I think they can rally. But, ah, I mean, it's just One day it'll end. Like you said, MAG, I mean, MAG's underside of a 200-day that's starting to flatten out. There th- there are definitely things like flattening 200-days Are just things you don't... We can get back going and this can It's been back upwards, but

Kevin 21:52

Yeah, it's easy to get chopped up in there if you're not being Careful Yeah, I mean, really the only thing that's kinda clear, more so cut and dry, I guess, that you could really act on is kind of like you were mentioning rates. I mean, if you wanted to short...

Ian McMillan 22:07

bonds?

Kevin 22:08

Yeah, just short TLT, be done with it

Ian McMillan 22:10

at least

Kevin 22:11

The only thing I will say, which you're probably better off almost just looking at rates, I guess, just from a history perspective, but you know, like TLT kinda losing your, what? '25, 2005, 2006 lows. But you kinda have some like earlier, like your early 2000 lows are not too far away. Closer to like 80, 81 bucks. But I mean, you-

Ian McMillan 22:36

think, like, the exposure, right? We won't have insight to this. Do you think the average advisor Average portfolio that has to keep a diversified portfolio. You think that they-- Or choose to. I don't know if you have to do anything this industry.

Kevin 22:57

A fund with a specific mandate, I mean, really yeah,

Ian McMillan 22:59

Exactly. Like, "Oh, I've got... Yeah, I've gotta own, like, X amount of treasuries 'cause I own a broad income

Kevin 23:09

Mm-hmm.

Ian McMillan 23:10

Here's what I came... $41 billion still in TLT out there, man. $41 billion in an asset that has gone down For six

Kevin 23:19

Past six years, yeah

Ian McMillan 23:21

Six years, and all you had to do was understand cycles.

Kevin 23:27

Mm-hmm.

Ian McMillan 23:28

All right, they think we're done with our 40 years of bliss And it takes a while. Yeah, it's not gonna go in a straight line. I mean, yeah, you could be, definitely be short. Well, but what about junk? Is junk

Kevin 23:41

Leading off really a little bit

Ian McMillan 23:44

is... You know how they say it's a stock picker's market? Do

Kevin 23:46

Mmhmm

Ian McMillan 23:46

think a bond picker's market Cause there's gotta be Fixed income is doing okay

Kevin 23:53

Man, s- like a lot of your, you know, short-term Kinda like floating rate stuff. You know what I mean? That,

Ian McMillan 24:00

and bills and...

Kevin 24:02

Or I mean...

Ian McMillan 24:02

like, on the corporate side

Kevin 24:04

Oh, could be. Yeah. Are we flipping through individual corporate bonds and picking some out? I don't know Yeah.

Ian McMillan 24:11

that's

Kevin 24:11

Yeah.

Ian McMillan 24:12

I

Kevin 24:12

LQD doesn't look very good Yeah, I mean, Chinese bonds have,

Ian McMillan 24:16

but

Kevin 24:16

right, Chinese bonds have held up really well still. I mean, we're still kinda in this range, but they keep holding it, which is nice to see. I mean, emerging market, high yield kinda right around... Well, it depends which one you use. I mean, they're still holding up well. Your like B and triple B CLOs, I mean, those have held up well. So I mean, there's still, you know, some of your junk stuff out there, but I think it's more your, like, it's targeted junk, I guess, to your point. You know, like high yield floating rate Mm-hmm.

Ian McMillan 24:53

Yeah, emerging market. Yeah,

Kevin 24:54

Mmhmm

Ian McMillan 24:54

you said, emerging market. They were doing about emerging market high yield, I mean

Kevin 24:58

Right. So it's not like...

Ian McMillan 25:00

market

Kevin 25:01

Mm-hmm. So there's some spots, yeah But it I don't know. And especially with, like, what the dollar was doing before. I mean, some of that stuff was getting a little, it was like emerging market bonds, a little sensitive to the dollar, unless you're trying to use, like, some of the, like, hedged versions of that. But even that too is I'm a little sensitive there, but That's the thing though, even with like trying to short TLT here, I mean, if you look at the 20-year yield, I mean, we still haven't cleared like the highs from end of '23, you know, fall of '23. Like that's basically where we are right now. So unless you're... You're not really in the clear until you're above like 5.4%. We're like around 5.3 now, so Could be talking about the failed breakdown in treasuries next week

Ian McMillan 25:51

Well, that'd be something

Kevin 25:53

wouldn't shock me Time will tell. Always does

Ian McMillan 25:56

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Kevin 27:01

I mean, with the last couple days the dollar had, the yen had a pretty big pop. I mean, that literally went up and just about kissed a 200-day, and that's really where that's struggling, so

Ian McMillan 27:12

Yeah, I think the move on the

Kevin 27:14

It's kind of interesting

Ian McMillan 27:14

big. I think it's gonna end up being A big deal

Kevin 27:17

Mm-hmm I think so too. Yeah, I mean, the dollar and like a lot of these growth versus value, mega cap versus, you know, like small cap, micro cap, like those relative charts, I think they're the... I mean, we've kinda seen the reaction already, it's just whether or not they actually take the ball and run with it or if we're just gonna keep chopping around. And I guess I wouldn't be too shocked with Continue to chap through August, right? 'Cause I mean, August seasonality-wise, right, isn't supposed to be anything special

Ian McMillan 27:44

Supposed to be pretty wonky

Kevin 27:46

Yeah. And then once we kind of start getting into fall, then we get the run from there. But who knows? I mean, they're averages, right?

Ian McMillan 27:53

Us- yes, usually that is my anecdotal experience. A couple times I can remember used Q4 to save the year.

Kevin 28:04

Mm-hmm.

Ian McMillan 28:05

So we'll see what we get this year

Kevin 28:08

Yeah We're about to find out. It's August tomorrow.

Ian McMillan 28:12

We are

Kevin 28:13

Well, I guess we won't find out till Monday, but July's in the books

Ian McMillan 28:17

July's in the books.

Kevin 28:19

In another,

Ian McMillan 28:21

done

Kevin 28:21

well, a couple hours That's

Ian McMillan 28:23

thank you for joining us this week.

Kevin 28:26

Mm-hmm.

Ian McMillan 28:27

Hope you have a great weekend, and we'll talk to you next week

Kevin 28:31

Have a good weekend