The Weekly Trend
The Weekly Trend
Episode 309: Video Killed the Radio Star
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In this week's episodeIn this week's episode, David and Ian discuss the S&P 500 is still above the range and 7600, equal-weight to cap-weighted relationships, the strength out of marine transportation stocks, market breadth, interest rate cycles, gambling versus investing, and real estate cycles.
Welcome back to the Weekly Trend Podcast. Today is Friday, August 14th, 2026. S P five hundred currently sitting at 7795. I'm David Zarling. I'm here with Ian McMillan trying something new here. Well, it's gonna be an Easter egg. We're not announcing it, but a little more stress on this podcast this week.
SPEAKER_01Gotta be aware of everything.
SPEAKER_02Yes.
SPEAKER_01I can't pick my nose. I can't pick my nose. Yeah. Can't pick your friends. Can't be on my phone.
SPEAKER_02Can't pick up your phone. Can't look at your phone. New rules. Gotta be aware of what you're wearing.
SPEAKER_01Yeah. Think about that. On a Friday.
SPEAKER_02Yeah. Facial reactions. I just keep a still face.
SPEAKER_01If I toot, I gotta keep a you can still do that. No problem, man. All right. It's natural. S P. S P. We're sticking above the range. We have follow through. Well, we had follow through. We got stuck in the range for a little bit. I would say like August, like last Thursday through Wednesday? Tuesday through last Tuesday through Wednesday. Stuck in the range. Popped out now.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, I mean, quality consolidation. You know, when you look at I don't have it on the screen, but if you look at Bollinger bands, they were compressed. The break higher last week actually exceeded the Bollinger bands, which Mr. Bollinger would tell you is a very quality setup. So we'll see if it's got staying power, but EcoWate SP doing the same thing.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, how about that?
SPEAKER_02And if we look at RSP versus SP, trying to hold a 200A.
SPEAKER_01Trying. I mean, it's still I mean, eh. We'll see.
SPEAKER_02It's got worked out.
SPEAKER_01A little divergy on the RSI.
SPEAKER_02It's got some history down here.
SPEAKER_01So think your average stock can do it? What about equal weight NASDAQ versus NASDAQ?
SPEAKER_02Let's do it. I like it. Above a 200 day. I mean, change in rate of trend. See, yeah, I mean But it's got I mean, that's a pretty big drop. What are we talking about? Four years?
SPEAKER_01Four years and so to outperform her in the bear market. 2022.
SPEAKER_02Minus 40%. And I really when we talk about equal weight versus cap weighted, aren't we just comparing momentum versus not momentum? Like a cap weighted index is gonna be more momentum than an equal weight. Now there are times where it can outperform. Equal weight can outperform. And I I do think it's interesting that we have equal weight Qs breaking above QQQ. I think that's a good got to new highs.
SPEAKER_01NASDAQ 100, not new highs. Russell did make it to new highs. I had that wrong in my notes, but Russell is we got there. Broke above the what it was at like early July, popped through on Wednesday. So you need to see that hold.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, and when you look at small caps year-to-date, I mean it's small cap semiconductors, makes sense. T, telecom, electronics, marine transportation.
SPEAKER_01Yeah. Transportation.
SPEAKER_02Yeah.
SPEAKER_01Is a winner year to date.
SPEAKER_02Marine transportation.
SPEAKER_01Oh, marine, yeah.
SPEAKER_02Right? So maybe if we look at boat looks pretty doggone good. Look at that. Yeah. Sea and cargo, new highs here. These are a little trickier. Be wet and be dry, but tanker shipping. I don't know that that stuff's more.
SPEAKER_01That's a little much for me.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, that's well, that's those are contracts. So you a little harder K1s. If you're into K1s, go for it. I am actually you are. You like K1s?
SPEAKER_01I collect them. I think they'll be worth a lot one day.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, Justin.
SPEAKER_01If I hang on to them, Justin loves them. Hey, you want to you want to see my K1s from like the early 90s? They go for a lot on eBay. You hang them on the wall? Hang them on the a lot of people get them framed, yeah.
SPEAKER_02I mean look at this. Look at bulk.
SPEAKER_01You can buy that with a weekly, yeah.
SPEAKER_02Tinker shipping versus SP. How about how about tanker shipping versus SSO?
SPEAKER_01I mean, it's been marine. It's good. So we need to be involved in the marine transports and not I shouldn't be waiting for semiconductors to grow up here.
SPEAKER_02Let's look at transportation. Okay, transportation not at new weekly highs yet. But I mean, how long were we waiting it to break out of this range from May of 21 through July of 25? Pretty long time.
SPEAKER_01Not in new highs. Disappointment though. Bad relative chart.
SPEAKER_02Yeah. I might be doing this wrong, but what if I subtract out Uber and compare it to the SP? Doesn't want to do it? I don't know. Thought I could do that. Oh, there you go.
SPEAKER_01There you go.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, I think if you subtract out Uber, I mean Uber is the dog of transportation. And it is the, I believe, largest or second largest. It's the second largest. It's 15% of IYT. On the flip side, Union Pacific, largest holding at 17%.
SPEAKER_01That's a pretty big that's a nice chart. Oh well, yeah. The railroads look I know like a couple months ago. I just who did they uh who merged?
SPEAKER_02What do you mean? Canadian Pacific and that's a little cup and handle-ish if I ever saw it. Is the largest piece of Kansas City?
SPEAKER_01That was it. Kansas City Southern.
SPEAKER_02I don't know why trading view is being sold for me right now. I'm trying to do Union Pacific versus IYT. Nothing. Ah, there we go. I mean, false breakdown.
SPEAKER_01Or false breakout. Shorter term. We'll see.
SPEAKER_02What else? What else are you seeing out there?
SPEAKER_01Bitcoin still the anchored VWAP. I think it's down to like 62 now.
SPEAKER_02All right, sure. Show me what you're looking at.
SPEAKER_01Let's see, and then you put me on the spot. I get my I gotta get stuff ready, and then I gotta go find these anchored VWAPs, and now my microphone's in my way. There's got a lot of learning happening to there is.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, now I see you bitcoin VWAP from the 2022. It's good. Is that what I want?
SPEAKER_01You know, you know.
SPEAKER_02I think I think you can see Bitcoin as well. Yeah, the 2022 low. That's not really a great look.
SPEAKER_01Might have to. It's not, but it's been hanging out here. We'll see. We'll see. We've been hanging out here for a month. Both sides of the VWAP.
SPEAKER_02And the dollar below 100, and it's doing that. It's that week. See, this is the other hard part about doing this is you get to show some of your dirty charts.
SPEAKER_01I know, dude. These are disgusting. I don't want people to see me like this. I feel naked. I feel new. Don't you you pull my charts look yes? Some of your charts are clean. A little bit problematic.
SPEAKER_02What is going on? What is going on in your chart room? What do you mean? That's pretty clean.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, there you go. There's a dollar, I guess, as long as below that line. It's going down. We zoom in. We got a little flag here.
SPEAKER_02We got the dollar below 100. It's interesting.
SPEAKER_01Flat 200 day, though. So I mean it's probably going to be dumb. This is going to be dumb for a while. Like, I don't know if we're going straight to 95, 96. We could.
SPEAKER_02Well, even if we did, that doesn't that just brings back rate of change, right? Is it really I think rate of change matters when it comes to currency and rates? And if you stay in a range between 96 and 100 for a long period of time, that might be great for the market. I mean, dollars weak. Dollars weak, but Bitcoin's weak too. I don't know, man.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, I agree. I mean, I think it's more like currency shocks that or like really strong trends in a direction that can like weird, you know, the people that that matters to, the fundamental for, you know, for X, like, oh, I'm buying this in I'm buying Apple in yen, and then I'm selling it in Colombian pesos. That's how I make my alpha. And there's people out there that I I assume there's people out there that do that, right? There's gotta be. There's gotta be some arbitrage. But yeah, I mean, if you could get the dollar to just sit put in a three to four percent range for a couple years. Not bad. I think everyone would I think everyone in all asset classes would be will would sign up for that.
SPEAKER_02Well, and then I mean, how long have we seen 30-year rates? I mean, we're talking about almost three years of 30-year rates moving sideways, and we're getting a breakout now.
SPEAKER_01Shocking. I'm gonna send this to my mortgage broker who tried to convince me to get an adjustable rate mortgage last year.
SPEAKER_02Yeah.
SPEAKER_01This is why you that's all these people have ever known. Is that like it worked? It works. You could always tell people, oh well, rates will come back. Rates will come back down. There's people made an entire career being able to tell people, well, rates, yeah, rates are up now. Refinance in six to uh six to twenty-four months, you'll be able to refinance. No?
SPEAKER_02Well, look at I mean, again, you know, I know you've mentioned this on X at the chart life, that we've been talking for a while about the new cycle and rates.
SPEAKER_01I mean, talking about since it broke that downtrend.
SPEAKER_02Right. And this downtrend, right? We're talking about 1980 to 2020 being the bottom, 22. So that's a 40-year, 42-year cycle in rates, which is perfectly normal. That rates w work in 35 to 40 year cycles. So is it really surprising? It's not. We're just repeating ourselves. And so would we be surprised if this this base on consolidation uh moved another uh 20%? We're at 6.2 30 year rates, 6.2 percent. Probably not surprised by that. Which brings up which which is which comes first, the chicken or the egg, the Fed or the bond market, or I should say the bond market or the Fed. I would say the Fed is the egg. I think the chicken comes before the egg.
SPEAKER_01You think the chicken comes before the egg?
SPEAKER_02Oh, yeah.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, in theory, I mean God made the chicken.
SPEAKER_02Correct. He didn't make Adam, he made him as a baby. Like, let me make a baby.
SPEAKER_01No, he's gonna make a little fetus and I'll lay it in this garden.
SPEAKER_02No, he made five, bud in age. This is why it's so you know.
SPEAKER_01I'm gonna make a people get really confused about girl baby and a boy baby. No, and then say, okay, yeah, hope they hope you figure it out.
SPEAKER_02Yep. So chicken before the egg, probably chicken and egg at the same time, really. Probably definitely chicken. So I and I think it's bond market before Fed. So it'll be interesting to see if rates get raised because of this move. Now, maybe this is a false breakout. Maybe this move above 5.15 is a false move. I mean, we haven't gotten overbought on RSI yet, could be open to that.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, but you wouldn't know for like months. This is definitely a thing you gotta watch, like probably on a minimum a weekly chart, if not monthly. Like you wouldn't know. I mean, I guess, yeah, I guess rates could roll over. And as it go with historical cycles, you can give, you know, I mean, I could probably give you some real-world political stuff too. We don't need to get into that. But however, Matt, whatever the reasoning is.
SPEAKER_02This this leads me to this chart. This chart.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, so you want to be involved in international. So what's that saying? They're just not gonna raise there. Are they gonna lower their rates or are they just not raising them as quickly?
SPEAKER_02Right.
SPEAKER_01I thought I saw someone said rates around the world are going up. But yeah, I mean, I could see foreign rates going up slower. I don't look at I don't look at foreign interest rates too much.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, I mean, Japanese Japanese bonds can be fun to look at.
SPEAKER_01How often are you pulling up? When you're when it's the end of the day and you're trying to decide if you should own more DRAM. Are you pulling up?
SPEAKER_02Well, Emily asked me each night, what are the what's the Japanese 10? So we gotta look it up together.
SPEAKER_01I just feel if my wife did that, I feel like after four nights, I'd be like, You guys, you can start looking it up.
SPEAKER_02You can do it yourself.
SPEAKER_01If you're so interested in this. Speaking of dram. Is that weekly? Yeah.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, got some memory here. Got Dell. I know Dell. I do like the Dell. Nice consolidation. Let's see how super well. Gotta look at an umbrella matches. Uh Hewlett Hewlett Packard's a nice one.
SPEAKER_01Trindu. Probably the bet you think that's the best chart in the ETF. The AV is pretty good. The Avi is Hewlett Packard, intermediate to long term. I think Hewlett Packard could be nice. I could think it could be a nice winner. I don't know if it's gonna be like MP status. Speaking of MP, whatever happened to that thing. MP. Well, and I think you know I thought the Avi was at new highs.
SPEAKER_02No, it's off a 200 day. Great base breakout, though.
SPEAKER_01No, what am I thinking of? FTI is at new highs. Technically, that's a nice oh. No, what am I thinking of?
SPEAKER_02FTI is at new highs. Look at that. Looks great.
SPEAKER_01I guess I'm making that up. Cybersecurity down a little bit today. It's interesting. That's definitely been a leader.
SPEAKER_02Yeah. I mean, you look at whether you're looking at sky, cloud, I would say cyber security too.
SPEAKER_01Cybersecurity, definitely a big winner.
SPEAKER_02The hacks. Hack. I don't know why this is being so slow for me. Come out. Yeah. Not bad. Not bad. You know, you bring up some of these ETF stocks. Probably should highlight the support of this podcast, the Adaptive Select ETF, listed on the New York Stock Exchange, Undertaker ADPV, which helps investors access two of the most prevalent factors in markets, momentum and relative strength. Through proprietary identification methods, the Adaptive Select ETF attempts to own the strongest 25 large cap stocks when the market is in an uptrend. And since not all market environments are the same, Adaptive Select seeks to prevent extended declines by moving to short-term treasury bills and cash during long-term market downtrends. Investors can find out more, including how to invest in ADPV, by visiting adpvetf.com or calling 1-833-880-5200. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. ADPV is distributed by Quasar Distributors LLC. Now I don't know. Again, we're trying to try something new here. I don't know where you went.
SPEAKER_01I'm here. I can see you.
SPEAKER_02I can't see you. And it's every time I stop sharing. I don't know if that's that layering thing Kevin was talking about, but we're gonna learn.
SPEAKER_01We're gonna learn. This is how you get better. It is. You don't want to be good right away. No. That would give us a false sense of confidence. Of confidence.
SPEAKER_02Yeah. Agreed.
SPEAKER_01Oh yeah, I mean Dave and I have lots of space. If you're looking for product placement up here, maybe a little up here, you can see Dave. Any product. Minor league baseball team. Major league baseball team? Major league baseball teams. We could be your official podcast. I mean, even like the local Mexican restaurant on chain. Atlanta Braves playing really well. We are back playing well. As long as Chris Sale can pitch all the games? Five to seven games of during a playoff. If you have a game, a five-day rain delay, let Chris Sale pitch again. Another five-day rain delay, let Chris Sale pitch again.
SPEAKER_02I mean, took two out of three from the Mets. Yeah. Swept the Marlins.
SPEAKER_01Do I like the Mets now since at least they haven't sold out to private equity?
SPEAKER_02No. I mean, they are the originators of the Bobby Bonilla contract. I mean, that's probably different.
SPEAKER_01I mean, it's kinda. I mean, nothing. I mean, four game private equity.
SPEAKER_02Four-game sweep against the Nationals. Yankees took two out of three.
SPEAKER_01Have you watched any preseason football yet?
SPEAKER_02You know, last night we were in the backyard doing some soccer stuff with the kids, got inside. My daughter's boyfriend came over. He's like, hey, can we turn the I guess there's a game on it? Who's your daughter? Lydia.
SPEAKER_01Oh, okay. Well, we'll talk about that later.
SPEAKER_02Packer Steeler game was on. Now, Schadenfreud, I kind of enjoyed. I I'm in Packer Country, but I'm not a Packer fan. I'm a Viking fan.
SPEAKER_03Yeah.
SPEAKER_02And NFL teams can sponsor too. But getting their butts whipped by Pittsburgh, I don't know. It was kind of enjoyable.
SPEAKER_01And Aaron's on Aaron's still on the Steelers, right?
SPEAKER_02Yeah.
SPEAKER_01Yeah. Yep. Well, I don't know, Dave. What do you think about market breadth? I'm a little Oh. I mean, I guess it's okay. I guess it's okay. Yeah, let's Days like today, Russell's up. I think SP flat.
SPEAKER_02I think market breadth is great.
SPEAKER_01You think it's great? Okay. Those are strong words.
SPEAKER_02Well, okay, let's let's go through the let's go through the homework. RSP, Equate, SP, now that's not the market. New all-time highs. Equal EQAL, also new all-time highs, NYA, composite, new all-time highs, Russell 2000, new all-time highs, international stocks, VEU, all-time highs. And then let's go ahead and pull up some breath charts, shall we? Should we do that? I think we should.
SPEAKER_01Gotta do something. Um my dashboard. I'm trying to find C stock charts, love you, but you gotta stop moving stuff around.
SPEAKER_02Alright, here we go. Common stock only advanced decline line, near all-time highs. S P advanced decline line.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, yeah, NYSE is all-time highs.
SPEAKER_02Total market, daily advanced decline ratio, kind of like that.
SPEAKER_01What about like a NALC? A NASDAQ.
SPEAKER_02New highs, new lows, positive histogram. Now it is divergent. I will give them that. NYSC, new highs, new lows, divergent histogram. I mean, that's fine. Cumulative. Here, cumulative NYSE. NASDAQ looks.
SPEAKER_01I mean, Nasdaq breath looks better than the index.
SPEAKER_02Here's value line, geometric index. So the average performance of the average stock about to go to new highs.
SPEAKER_01Super average, super basic.
SPEAKER_02These are your bullish percent basic in Xs and not in crazy territory. I think breath looks pretty good.
SPEAKER_01Okay. You heard it there, folks. Dave is promising you. Yep, promissory.
SPEAKER_02Very promising.
SPEAKER_01Higher highs. You can do that. You're a fiduciary. You can promise stuff. That's what I tell clients. Oh no, no, no. I can't I can say that. You see, I'm a fiduciary. Yeah, you I mean, plenty to like. There is a lot to like.
SPEAKER_02And then, what do you think about this? What do you think about that? Last four weeks from JC Pratt's.
SPEAKER_01So only 34% bulls.
SPEAKER_02No bulls. Neutral or bearish?
SPEAKER_01Well, I mean, the fact that we're breaking higher out of the consolidation, really, you know, we'll see what happens with futures. They're a little bit more finicky, but yeah, I mean, as long as SPX stays above these, you know, 7750. Seventy seven seventy? Seven seven seven.
SPEAKER_02I just think you know new highs isn't that it's amazing investor sentiment. New highs typically has a bare like, oh that's not good, new highs. But that's the very d definition of an uptrend. And isn't it fascinating that we got the the most recent low in the market back at the end of July was right when all this stuff was coming out about Leopold's situational awareness blow up? Now he's still fun, but he sold his public equity to Citadel, and that marks a bottom.
SPEAKER_01I mean, now that Kane owns it, he's not gonna let it go down further. That would be stupid. Yeah. Like I own it now. Why why would I allow it to go keep going down?
SPEAKER_02So I mean breath looks good, new highs. Could there be more consolidation? I mean, we're still in summer. We're still in a midterm year. For sure. I mean, VIX VIX is about as low as it's been since end of last year. Not bad. What else? What else are you seeing out there?
SPEAKER_01Not a lot. I'm just watching. Kind of in it. Now I'm watching.
SPEAKER_02You're in it, meaning you're invested.
SPEAKER_01I'm invested.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, invest on behalf of our clients. And I think that you know, Stan Drunken Drunken Miller would say put all your eggs in one basket and watch it carefully. So you're watching. Watching carefully.
SPEAKER_01When they add prediction markets to Schwab, I think we'll have a little sleeve in there for gambling on political outcomes.
SPEAKER_02Degeneracy.
SPEAKER_01Like a 1% sleeve, Dave.
SPEAKER_02I mean, it's cra it's crazy to think about. Did you see that chart on Gen Z moving? Yeah, about how they're replacing their thing and wealth plans. 52% of them have redirected funds.
SPEAKER_01But what is what does that mean, a wealth plan? So they're interviewing people in Gen Z. Are these like, oh yeah, I sat down with the CFP, came up with a wealth plan for me. We did some planning.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, I don't know if it's a wealth plan or like a 401k plan or a IRA or is it just their plan?
SPEAKER_01Like, it's just their plan for their wealth, but not a like, hey, an accountant and a financial planner, help me put this together, yeah.
SPEAKER_02Eric Balkunas put this out. Gen Z is moving money from stocks to sports betting and wealth plans 52%.
SPEAKER_01That's right, and that's why I'm with your theory. I think that's why we're getting 24-hour trading.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, it's a retail thing. Like 24-hour trading. It's a retail thing. That's a retail.
SPEAKER_01They want you buying, they don't want you gambling on NFL on Sundays. They want you XYZ software stock move 12%. Oh my gosh, I better get some before the Monday open. Right. That's what they want you doing.
SPEAKER_02Do you remember the election night 2016?
SPEAKER_01Yeah.
SPEAKER_02How many retail do you think would have puked that Tuesday night because of 24-hour trading? How many, how many investors do you think would have gone in? That's a great like uh done an emotional response and sold at the very worst time before the best market in the history of the market. I think you get what you I don't know. 24-hour trading.
SPEAKER_01That's definitely easier to fade like everything that happens.
SPEAKER_02Well, because the big boys are still gonna trade at certain times, you know. Maybe, maybe there's an era 10 years from now where that's a little more smoothed out, but there likely is still gonna be an auction process that's at a certain point of day where the big boys interact. But I'm telling you, two Tuesday election night 2016, the amount of retail puking would have been impressive. So it'll be interesting who can't have self-control in the overnight markets. It'll be really interesting to watch.
SPEAKER_01Long-term financial strategy. So that means you there are people that there's that are they believe that they're gonna win consistently over the long term, and it will be part of their wealth creation, wealth generation process.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, and and here's the here's the problem. Like are you here's the problem I have. One, it's equating gambling with investing, two different things. Gambling is a zero-sum game. There's two parties. Yeah, there's only so many dollars.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, it's it's binary, right? It's binary. I guess pronoun markets maybe are not that way, but I mean, yeah, like if you're taking the over-under on Packers Bears, yeah, either you're winning or you're losing.
SPEAKER_02Yeah. And it's it's more zero sum. You know, the one of the confusing things for market participants is some think the market is zero sum, and that's not true. There's elasticity, there's money printing, whether you like it or not, there's money flowing in and out, markets are not zero sum. I would argue prediction markets and betting, gambling is zero sum.
SPEAKER_01So I yeah, if I make money on Apple shares, that doesn't mean the guy that I bought them from lost money. He could have made money too.
SPEAKER_02Do you do you think people who have this viewpoint are able to delineate between the two? So, for example, I don't know, your late 20s, early 30s professional, you've allocated 52% to betting, and you lose 80% of your account to betting. Do you equate that scenario with all investments are bad?
SPEAKER_01Or it's just like a meme stock? Maybe it's just like a meme stock, like part of me thinks that like they don't care. Like it's just it's a generation that's just really trying to turn a thousand dollars into a hundred thousand dollars.
SPEAKER_02YOLOing?
SPEAKER_01Yeah, it's meme stocks. It's like, oh, you're only like, dude, but you're just one seven leg parlay from fifty grand. Like the same, like you're just another GameStop, you're just another, you know, insert ticker here, like me. I mean, memes, NFTs, like the Get Rich Quick, the hair rather than the Get Rich Quick. I think that comes from they're definitely a generation, wrong, right or wrong, it's definitely a generation that has gotten out of college. I mean, they immediately feel screwed, given what's going on in the economy. Especially if you're a young male. And I we're not, we don't need to get like political, like this. I can I'm telling you, this is just it's the truth. I'm telling you. But yeah, I think it's part of the like effort. The only way to make it out is to somehow hit some type of jackpot. That's very hyperbolic, that's not true. Are they also, you know, as a whole, like worse off than every other male generation in their 20s? Yeah, for sure.
SPEAKER_02Wait, 20-year-old, 20-year-olds are worse off than any other 20-year-olds in history?
SPEAKER_01I think for job prospects, I think it's yeah, I think a college-educated male has a harder time getting a job right out of college than at any time previously.
SPEAKER_02Do you have data for that? Or are you just anecdotal, like interacting with people? I don't know.
SPEAKER_01I know it's definitely a fact first. I mean, look at all the computer science stuff that's gone on. These kids have they they have like 12% unemployment for an entire major that was supposed to be the cutting edge major.
SPEAKER_02Yeah.
SPEAKER_01And I don't find I don't think that's an outlier. So yeah, I think it all trickles down to F it. I did what I was supposed to do. None of this paid off. You could say that for a lot of millennials too, have that attitude. Did what I was supposed to do, didn't really work out. Whether that's due to like infl like inflation or whatever. Um the only way to possibly get the house, or the only way to I just I gotta turn a hundred I gotta turn one grand to a hundred grand.
SPEAKER_02So do you think it's like trying to advance what are the typical minds milestones of young professionals, young workforce individuals, which I mean is so the average age for buying a house is like mid-30s. That's just the average.
SPEAKER_01I think it's gotta be even worse than that, maybe. Yeah, I just to my point. Look at the like that's insane.
SPEAKER_02Well, is it though? I mean, if like for example, my grandparents who are both in heaven, I don't think they got their house till their mid-30s. And I believe it was I think there is some of that.
SPEAKER_01There, I think there's definitely misconsent.
SPEAKER_02It wasn't a miss, it wasn't a McMansion.
SPEAKER_01But look at the data. Then what's the what's the date on the average new home buyer say historically?
unknownYeah.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, I don't know. We'd have to I'd have to look at it. Maybe we'll do that next episode. We'll do some homework and figure this out. But average, I think age of age using betting as a 20-year-old to go and try to buy your first house is a terrible idea. Terrible.
SPEAKER_01Like Yeah, so 28 to 31 in the 80s, now roughly 38 to 40 for the average. The average obviously 2020 has accelerated rapidly. So, yes, 28 to 30 was 1980, 1990s. We are now up to 38 to 40 over the last few years.
SPEAKER_02So I know home prices have gone up. I know that. So you so are you saying that you agree with this method? I don't think you are.
SPEAKER_01I think you're just saying No, no, I'm saying this is psychologically why these people and I assume we're really talking about young men here, right? Like, how many how many young women do you think are gambling as a way of wealth creation or buying meme stocks and NFTs and things like that, as far as like this is how I'm gonna retire?
SPEAKER_02Yeah, my my interaction with young is my kids and their friends. So we're talking just leaving college, entering the workforce. So I don't have the insight into like I mean, my nephews are like 25 to 30, but they both have are gainfully employed and great jobs. One owns a house, the other one is looking to own a house. I don't know. I so I don't have like a tremendous anecdotal insight into late 20s, early 30s.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, I think I think based on everything I've read the and research and I mean I say somewhat anecdotally. We don't need to get into that, but yeah, I think it's I mean, I think right there that the average home buyer, the age, has gone up 10 years in the world.
SPEAKER_02Don't we think we've that fluctuates though? Probably. I don't know. I'd have to go find the data. And should housing be an American right?
SPEAKER_01Like, is that how that I don't think anyone's uh making the argument that it should be a right, it just sucks that the average person is now 38 when they buy their first house, when that wasn't the case just 20 years ago. That's the point. And so what these people are doing because they still want the American dream, they still want to own a house. Like, I mean, again, I like I think you and I, and it took me a long time. I think you and I live in a very, very different world than and our kids, or your kids and your kids' friends and their parents, it's a very, very different world compared to what the average young male, college educated male, is dealing with.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, no, I I believe that. I mean, I'm totally open-minded. We all live in bubbles, no one gets to sit here and say they have firsthand experience in anything.
SPEAKER_01You know, and it took me, I used to do, I don't know, I didn't I used to kind of like scoff at the K economy thing, but I don't know, man. There's there truly are two different economies. And everyone wants to be, everyone wants to make it to the other side. It's just so well, yeah.
SPEAKER_02Isn't the average home price now 400 400K?
SPEAKER_01It used to be two hundred K and these kids they don't know how to date, so none of them even experience the like combo of double, like they all suck at dating, but then they're like half the secret there is getting married, so you have two incomes. Like it's making a family to be. There's a lot of there's a lot of there's also a lot of things that disservices they're doing to themselves. So, I mean, that's part of it, right? There's a lot of things that previous generations yeah.
SPEAKER_02I had to talk, I had to talk to girls.
SPEAKER_01Like, yeah, right, like you gotta figure it out, have get married, have kids. I mean, you just figure it out. It doesn't have to be this perfect, like, I need to have $200,000 in the bank so girls will talk to me. That's not well and I remember I don't know, our super philosophical. Well, that's okay.
SPEAKER_02No, this is a good discussion. My first house was a duplex, and we made that decision because the rent from one of the units helped us pay for living in the place. Was it awesome living with another person?
SPEAKER_01No, well, yeah, and I think right, I think that guys back to always chalked up his Instagram culture. No one really wants to start off with a starter home, right? So I would chalk that up to a disservice that so two things are true at one time, basically.
SPEAKER_02I think too I think $400,000 house, people are buying it later, there's not as many good jobs, and then on the flip side, they have all these distractions or misconceived.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, they are done. Like I would say that they're arguably like the least smart with their money. I mean, there's I would say that's definitely an argument. The wasteful spending of Millennial and Gen Z has probably also got to be up there. The consumerism. Yeah.
SPEAKER_02Saying no. Saying no.
SPEAKER_01Putting vacations on credit cards. Like at 23, when you all like you're only making like 50 50 grand and you want to s you want to put like an $8,000 vacation on a credit card, like that's also dumb stuff. So right then it's it's hard to be when when as a whole, when they cry, when they I shouldn't use the word cry, when they lament, I can't, I can't afford a house. It's like, well, again, as a whole, I kind of know your generation does some stupid stuff.
SPEAKER_02Like I was, I mean Well, and they the example in that Eric Balkunas cave in that tweet was a 32-year-old who shifted some to betting, made $2,500 in betting, and then used it for a vacation, which is not investing. That's taking that's taking from your nest egg that should be counting and using it towards something that and anecdotally, when we went to Punta Cata and we're champagne problems, I get it. We had a great vacation. I could not believe the amount of 20-year-olds there, could not believe it.
SPEAKER_01Dude, they say that like they are like they put these things on the are those payment apps, what do they call those things?
SPEAKER_02Like short-term loans or uh, yeah, I don't know what they're like a firm or things like that. Yeah.
SPEAKER_03Mm-hmm.
SPEAKER_02No, I like this philosophical discussion. It's both end. I mean, it sucks that homes are and that's why what's interesting to me is like we're upon the 18 and a half year cycle for real estate. So where does the where do we start to see the cracks in the correction in real estate?
SPEAKER_01And maybe it's is that real estate moves in 18 year cycles?
SPEAKER_02Yeah, 18 and a half year cycles for real estate. So we're in that window. So do we get a real estate correction?
SPEAKER_01So I should sell my house, is what you're saying. I gotta go tell my wife.
SPEAKER_02I mean, that's up to you, man. That's your call. Sometimes there's more value than money, it's about where you're raising your kids. So oh no, we're definitely not.
SPEAKER_01Definitely not well.
SPEAKER_02This is good. We went through what we got charts, we got philosophical. Anything else you want to cover? Yeah, we fixed it. Fixed it all. There you go. All right, anything else you want to cover before we kick it?
SPEAKER_01There's not, yeah. I mean, as long as we're out of this latest short-term range.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, would you just say the the new 7770? The new line in the sand is being above the.
SPEAKER_01And really, I mean, I guess the long-term line in the sand is 7600, right? Yeah. We come back down to 7600 and bounce. It's gonna suck, but still nothing would be broken.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, same with same with 7300. That would be a little bit more painful if we had a okay.
SPEAKER_01Well, seven, I mean 73. Yeah, I mean, 73, I think people would be dirty underwear. I would probably have some dirty underwear at 7300.
SPEAKER_02Very along with your dirty charts.
SPEAKER_01Filthy charts. Dirty, filthy charts.
SPEAKER_02Well, thanks for doing this with me. We're gonna learn as we learn this new method, but we thank everybody for listening and watching. Maybe.
SPEAKER_01And watching, I guess, yeah.
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SPEAKER_01Have a great weekend, everyone.