The Weekly Trend
The Weekly Trend is a conversation on various publicly-traded markets, seen through the eyes of technical analysis.
The Weekly Trend
Episode 312: Dew Point
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In this week's episode, David and Ian discuss the continued sideways move in the S&P 500, dispersion analysis of stocks within the S&P 500, cryptocurrencies that are showing strength, international equities, whether we are going to see areas that lead early in the year taking back the reins to end the year, and which areas of transports are looking the best.
Welcome to the weekly trend, the broadcast for navigating the market through the lens of technical analysis. The weekly trend broadcast is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute any professional advice. Listeners do not have to funny informational content without first seeking advice from a registered financial planner.
SPEAKER_01SP 500 currently sitting at 7715. I'm David Sarling here with Ian McMillan. I see you've got your game cock polo on. It's football season.
SPEAKER_02You know, before we go there, from my notes last week, you said we're at 7715. Yeah. The opening number on last week's episode, 7714.
SPEAKER_01Nothing happened. Literally nothing happened. Other than Kevin got his maiden voyage on the video version of the podcast, which is good.
SPEAKER_02Kevin got a tractor too.
SPEAKER_01Kevin's having a big week. Yes. He got a tractor.
SPEAKER_02Who doesn't like tractors? I think you have to because he can. Right. Because he can. And it would be cool to have a tractor.
SPEAKER_01Probably should have your man card checked if you somehow have a problem with tractors.
SPEAKER_02If you got the space, right?
SPEAKER_01Secretly down inside, does not every man wish they had a tractor?
SPEAKER_02I would love to drive a tractor. I'm sure there's local farmers that would let you. Like with not like non like harvesting season and stuff.
SPEAKER_01Yeah.
SPEAKER_02Take it out, take it for a spin.
SPEAKER_01You just got to go for a pancake breakfast on the farm. You got to look around your area. Who's having pancake breakfast for 4H? They're going to have a tractor there. You can hop on.
SPEAKER_024H. I need to look more into our local 4H. I think the kids would enjoy that.
SPEAKER_01They would. There's farmers' associations out there. You can get on a farm and kids would love it, man. Baby cows. It's awesome. See what happens when the SP moves one point between.
SPEAKER_02There's nothing for us. We have a list of about four things to talk about today, and that that's it. Yeah. Even the client letter was tough. The client letter was tough. Well, let's start with that season now. Yeah.
SPEAKER_01Let's talk about that. Let's talk about what was on the or in the client letter that went out.
SPEAKER_02Rates are in the same spot. I think I wrote two sentences on interest rates. Stocks are still above 7,600, 7620. Oh, that I mean we got we got out of the range and then went back to two weeks sideways. But I guess you know, at least we're at above 7620.
SPEAKER_01Which is good. Are you going to the game this weekend?
SPEAKER_02Going to the game. Heading out bright and early, 7.15 in the morning.
SPEAKER_01Well, it's an early game.
SPEAKER_02Trying to get parked. Yeah, trying to get parked by like nine at the latest. 11. First drink in hand. Wife and I, the goal is first drink in hand by like 9, 10, 9.15. That gives you like two and a half hours. It is an early game. So like only two and a half hours of tailgating, which is pretty light. It's pretty light. Um, maybe not to some people, but for us, it's light.
SPEAKER_01What's the go-to morning beverage before college football game? Are we talking Bloody Mary?
SPEAKER_02No, she's I've been instructed I'll be picking up the the shamps and OJ. Mimosas. So we'll have mimosas. Yeah, she's big on the mimosas. As I feel like most wives are at the tail, the mid-30s, you know. Um, not the same as when you're in college. And then yeah, I'll just have beer.
SPEAKER_03Okay.
SPEAKER_02Beer. Awesome. Kent State. Try to get down as mid. Yeah, Kent State. They suck. Should be a blowout. Probably won't be. You want it to be. Oh, I do want it to be. We got a new offensive coordinator. Okay. Ready to see that.
SPEAKER_01Well, we got an SP above 7620. And you're using that because that's the prior high. Prior high. S area, that would be called polarity. Prior resistance becomes support. And I would say that is a quality designation for that area. That if we're losing 7620, probably coming back into where support was previously, otherwise known as demand, because we are in the business of studying supply and demand near 7290. Again, using the SP 500, but it's notable. We remain in an uptrend. And honestly, for a midterm election year, pretty doggone good summer so far. I mean, I can ruin it just by saying that. And you know, we're moving four or five percent lower until October, November. It's possible.
SPEAKER_03Yeah.
SPEAKER_02One thing, so we talk about 7600 though. Yeah. From my chart. You got the cues up. So look at your yeah, not even close. So, well, let me make my point here. All right, so raising 7620 is important. So early June highs. But if you go to NASDAQ, not above its early June highs, and then if you go to Russell, I mean, okay, it's different. We I'm gonna have to use the July highs, so well, late June, anyways. Russell had a better June than the others. Stick up for a little longer. I don't know. I just don't really care for this look. We're above some anchored VWAPs that I put on here or whatever, but wonky. Wonky. It's an uptrend.
SPEAKER_01It is an uptrend. And the Russell has been leading this year.
SPEAKER_02Shorter term, it's whatever.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, I think I think it's okay to have some concern over divergence from the Qs and Russell compared to the SP 500. And I did some quick analysis on like dispersion. Like what's going on, what's going on with in within the SP 500?
SPEAKER_02I don't even probably don't even want to know.
SPEAKER_01Well, what's interesting is so we have we have the SP sitting, let's call it, use my measurement here, 1.3% below the highs. Yet 50% of the index is 10 plus 10 below their highs, and 31% of the index is 20% below their highs. Now I'm not a fan of calling bear markets for individual stocks, and I don't like using that term, but 20% minus 20% is a nice round number that the industry likes to use. One third of the index experiencing a bear market from their two from their 52-week high. So there's correction underneath the surface. And so, really, when you look at breath, it's kind of impressive how breath is holding up. Now we did get a bullish percent that moved into O's. So pretty pretty normal for a summer session, but there's a wide disparity between index and individual stocks. There's the index, and then there's what's happening underneath. So there could be people out there, there could be investors out there who are negative on the year. I mean, that's very possible.
SPEAKER_03Yeah.
SPEAKER_01And then you've got, I see you've got rates up here. Yeah.
SPEAKER_02Haven't moved.
SPEAKER_01That sure looks like it wants to go up. Like they'll go up. Interest rates go up.
SPEAKER_02I think so. So we'll see. I mean, not a lot going on. Bitcoin. Above a 200 day. Stuck here. What is this? 82 grand, 82,000. We're stuck below. I think there's an year to date, or not year to date, but BWAP from a major low from the past.
SPEAKER_01BWAP from the high. Okay. What about Zcash?
SPEAKER_02Looks good. We'll see. I almost don't want to talk about it. Looks good. Pretty solid continuation here.
SPEAKER_01Yep. Moving higher, clear skies for Zcash.
SPEAKER_02Really nice consolidation. Right here. Not bad. Not bad. I think the internet people's like Zcash. The internet people am I an internet person? I guess so. Are we all? I guess so. Probably by default. I do like it. I do like it. It looks good. Definitely one of the better cryptos. Monero. I always want to say Moreno. Jose Moreno.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, Moreno Monero.
SPEAKER_02No, no ETFs for Monero, though, right?
SPEAKER_01I don't think so. So those are all denominated in dollars. What are we seeing out of like trade weight dollar, like DXY? Dixie Land Delight. Back below.
SPEAKER_02I think it's right. We broke this trend. Came back. I mean, if I wanted to be like real precise, I could probably do this. Connect a whole bunch of bottoms or something. Came back, tag the underside of it. But yeah.
SPEAKER_01Flat 200 days, so that's going to be kind of a hot mess. But it is interesting to see gold, gold miners, palladium, steel, Zcash, some of these crypto names doing just fine. And then you throw in international VEU minus US stocks going out at new all-time highs. Pretty hard to get bearish if international stocks are doing well, or if even if you look at European financials, all-time highs.
SPEAKER_02Look at this stupid chap. That's what they do to you.
SPEAKER_01Well, I do think it's interesting that you know higher since June, you know, we've really been in a in environment when we talk about individual stock corrections underneath the surface. It's not all that surprising that a lot of breakouts fail. And what I love about that, right there, that chart you have up is look at the frustration on any breakout buyers on that. So wrapping around the prior high, honestly, kind of like that from a drawing in market participation, not necessarily from like getting stopped out, but eventually breakouts will stick, and that will be a good thing. I don't know when that is, but eventually breakouts will stick. Yeah, we might remain an uptrend, even emerging markets, you know, back above a relative 200 day. If we look at polarity back above, you know, this is emerging markets versus SP. Pulling this important polarity near 0.0083, moving higher, not too shabby, not a bad thing. And then before we hopped on here, we were talking about EWI, South Korea.
SPEAKER_02South Korea. I think Taiwan's even a little better, though. Yeah. I always forget. I always forget, right? We're in it. We're in. We gotta sell in the charts. See, because you got Taiwan. I don't is EWI back up to new highs. I also, no, see, look, you got South Korea. I mean, maybe I'm not really, I'm not, I'm not one to decipher a bike for a catch-up trade. I mean, I guess it could do that. But yeah, see, EWI came all the way back to its relative 200 day. Taiwan did not. It's recovered a little bit better. We had good charts.
SPEAKER_01And we are familiar with what is in those. You know, Taiwan semiconductors holding up nicely.
SPEAKER_02Can you name another Taiwanese company off the top of your head?
SPEAKER_01Samsung, maybe? Is it? Or Samsung? Is it looking? I'm looking. I'm an internet person. I'm one of those internet people. South Korea.
SPEAKER_02Right. Yeah. So because Korea has which one has the HK Heinex or SK Heinex or what was that?
SPEAKER_01That's South, that's South Korea. So they have Samsung and speaking then, how has your largest your largest two holdings in EWY by the ETF for South Korea is SK Heinex at 23%, almost 24%, and then Samsung at 22.
SPEAKER_02And they say that we're concentrated here in America.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, right. Good point. Everybody complains about the uh concentration here. Speaking of that, concentration, I mean bank stocks holding all time highs. Okay. I'm using FNGS.
SPEAKER_02For bank stocks?
SPEAKER_01No, sorry, for Fang Fang stocks.
SPEAKER_02I don't know what kind of banks you're looking at. I mean, I guess yeah, the globally systemic important banks are. Well, I mean they made all-time highs yesterday.
SPEAKER_01BKX, you know, the the Nasdaq Bank Index is near all-time highs.
SPEAKER_02Yeah.
SPEAKER_01So good.
SPEAKER_02That's uh big event next week. Always like to get your opinion on this. We'll have to get your see where you're at this year. Sell Rosh Hashanah by Yom Kippur. Oh nine days. Nine days. Where have we had to save? I know you love to zone in on this nine-day period every year. I do, yeah. The 11th through the 20th.
SPEAKER_01The 11th through the 20th.
SPEAKER_02You're going to cash? Rosh Hashanah? He's going to cash.
SPEAKER_01What does that start on?
SPEAKER_02The 11th. The September 10th.
SPEAKER_01Interesting. September 11.
SPEAKER_02So is that next Friday?
SPEAKER_01I mean, historical data, SP 500 experiences a slight average decline around minus 0.5 to minus 0.8.
SPEAKER_02And if you're not trying to pick up, I mean, you're not trying to hop on that edge right there, Dave.
SPEAKER_01Well, yeah, I guess. I mean, I could see strength into mid-September and then weakness. And I think more statistically significant would probably be mid-term election year.
SPEAKER_02Doug Cass says he's big. He's paid attention to for years. Doug Cass recommends investors just follow the first half of the adage. We're selling on Rash Hashanah, but he wants us to sell more on Yom Kippur. Now we're throwing it all off, Doug.
SPEAKER_01So now we're we're selling and then sell more. So what when does that when do you buy them? What's the seasonal advice that I don't know?
SPEAKER_02Not my religion.
SPEAKER_01So okay.
SPEAKER_02If you run into one, ask them.
SPEAKER_01Okay. When do you buy?
SPEAKER_02Hey, what do you guys what do you guys do? When do you when do you buy though?
SPEAKER_01Yeah, if Doug, if Doug says you gotta sell and then sell more, when do I tell my wife we're buying a conundrum? I will say this big picture consolidation in semiconductors is pretty constructive.
SPEAKER_02I want it to be, but I want it to look good. It doesn't look like I wanted it to look, and that's bothering me, Dave. Are you talking more near today? Today is better. Today is better. It's kind of like Dram more, though. Yeah. Do you need to show share your screen? You can share your screen. If we get above this anchored VWAP, probably be pretty good. Yeah. If we gotta come all like if we gotta do this, if we gotta keep man, because that was such a hard run back here, March through mid-June. Yeah. Like, are we gonna work that off in three months? Sometimes I wonder if that those are those are in my shower thoughts sometimes.
SPEAKER_01Well, that was a breakaway gap that ran 80%, and then we corrected 27. And it's one of those things, you know. I what I keep coming back to and thinking about is typically your leaders to start the year are your leaders again at the end of the year. So semiconductors, energy, Russell 2000. Do investors not own or are not accumulating enough of that now during the weakness when they should be, right? These these weak summer months before we head into the best period, which is you know, buy in October and get yourself sober. I don't know if that's what maybe that's what Doug Cass is getting at is you should no.
SPEAKER_02That's that's what my religion is. That's the Christian saying.
SPEAKER_01Sell Rash Hashanah, sell more Yom Kimpur, buy in October and get yourself sober. All these fun phrases that we have in the technical analysis community, and so I get it. They they can hold some water, they're fun. But I do I do wonder if the weakness that we've seen this summer in some of these areas has been opportunity to get back involved. And will will you will you have missed out because if this consolidation has some each or socks, I'll give me socks, does resolve higher. Your potential target is like a thousand on socks. Yeah, it'd be a thing, could be crazy. A thousand bucks. And then we've got shipping, you know. If we look at boat, boat, the shippers do look good.
SPEAKER_02The only thing that looks good inside industrials, yeah.
SPEAKER_01Industrials, yeah.
SPEAKER_02I mean, that's a that's a really solid relative chart.
SPEAKER_01This is classic, you know. You've got resistance, resistance, breaks through, retests, polarity, demand, move higher. I don't know. You that's as classic of a technical analysis study as you can have.
SPEAKER_02What are the other ones? B wet and be dry.
SPEAKER_01B wet and be dry, those are contract-based. You'll get a K1 if you want to venture down that road. But B wet continues to move higher, B dry continues. Ooh, look at that right at the 2024 high. We'll see what they do with it there. I would say that's one from a technical analysis standpoint. I don't know that you need to get involved right here, right now. I think you gotta wait for confirmation.
SPEAKER_02It's been a hard run.
SPEAKER_01C is another one, C and Sky cargo that did break out of a base. So out of the out of transportation, those are you want to be in in shipping.
SPEAKER_02Definitely want to be in shipping.
SPEAKER_01Like if we look at boat versus IYT, also an interesting spot.
SPEAKER_02See, a lot of that transfer stuff's bouncing. I think IYT is bouncing off its 200 day. So then you start to wonder if there's gonna be like a mean reversion. Like, will trains and planes outperform for a bit?
SPEAKER_01Trains, planes, and automobiles. Well, a lot of IIT is gonna be determined by Uber. Uber's the largest waiting or was the largest waiting. And I don't think it's pretty it's further down now. You know, Union Pacific holding highs. We'll see. But energy, we were talking about energy holding up. I mean, this is a pretty good energy looks fine on an absolute basis, getting above these levels, consolidating. Is it as nice on a relative basis?
SPEAKER_02Maybe I'll buy more of that today.
SPEAKER_01Get some got some work, but not too shabby. Again, start of 2026, start off with a bang, and you wonder how it's gonna finish. Bug miners using GDX, absolute basis, nice breakout, check back. I mean, another relatively clean absolute chart on a relative basis. I mean, look at this basics. If this gets going, let's just use around 160% alpha potential. Now you've got a flat 200 days. So this this could be another one of those where we're wrapping around these prior highs for a while and then moving higher. Frustrate people on a relevant basis.
SPEAKER_02Could see that.
SPEAKER_01Anything else you want to jump to? This doesn't have to be a long episode, especially if you have an early morning and you gotta go get the the gear yet.
SPEAKER_02Gotta go get it.
SPEAKER_01Is it just you and Kate?
SPEAKER_02It's just me and Kate. Well, we're meeting some friends down there. Okay. But yeah. I think it'd be way too for even if we tried to bring I mean it's well look at like 98, 99 tomorrow, so that's a long time for kiddos to be out in the sweltering sun.
SPEAKER_01Oh yeah, that's that's hot. It's hot, hot. And then the dew point. You wearing a tank top? You gonna wear a cutoff shirt?
SPEAKER_02I have to. Tube top. I don't think that'll fly. With like well, some little spaghetti straps. I don't know what religion this is now. Might end up at the wrong event.
SPEAKER_01Columbia, South Carolina, dew point. Looking it up. 98 degrees. 92 degree dew point. That's brutal, man. Don't have too many molosas. That'll be that's a tough environment.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, it'll be tough. So probably for the best. Yeah, probably. Probably for the best for everyone.
SPEAKER_01Well, before we sign off, I always like to highlight the supporter of this podcast, the Adaptive Select ETF, listed on the New York Stock Exchange under Ticker ADPV, which helps investors access two of the most prevalent factors in markets, momentum and relative strength. Using proprietary identification methods, the Adaptive Select ETF attempts to own the strongest 25 large cap stocks, and the market is in an uptrend. And since not all market environments are the same, Adaptive Select seeks to prevent extended declines by moving to short-term treasury bills and cash during long-term market downtrends. Investors can find out more, including how to invest in ADPV, by visiting adpvetf.com or calling 1-833-805200. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. ADPV is distributed by Quasar Distributors LC. Any final thoughts, Ian?
SPEAKER_02No, good luck to everyone's favorite college. I guess NFL starts next week, but yeah, good luck to your favorite college football teams and your favorite stocks.
SPEAKER_01That's good. That's a good that's a good wish. Well, we appreciate everybody listening and watching, and we ask you to give you a high ranking on your platform of choice. If this is something you appreciate, that means a lot to us. Share it with your family and friends. Otherwise, Ian, we have a three-day weekend, my friend. It's gonna be nice.
SPEAKER_02Can't lose money on Monday. Great, can't make money either.
SPEAKER_01It's true. Allows these stocks to rest.
SPEAKER_02Yes.
SPEAKER_01Well, enjoy your time with with Kate and your friends and the game, and we'll hope you guys tune in again next week.
SPEAKER_02Have a great weekend, everyone.